Alternate History: Survival of the Weimar Republic

Introduction

• Exploring the survival of the Weimar Republic and its implications on World War II.
• Thesis: If the Weimar Republic had survived, Germany might not have turned into an ultra-nationalist and expansionist power.

Economic Context and Radicalization

• Great Depression hit Germany hard, causing significant unemployment.
  • 1932: Approximately 30% unemployment rate.
• Radicalization of populace led to support for ultra-nationalist promises of improvement.

Election Trends

• 1930 Federal Election:
  • Nationalist party votes rose from 2.6% (1928) to 18.3%.
• Subsequent Elections:
  • 1932: Nationalists became the largest party with 37.3%.
  • 1933: Further increase to 43.9%.
• 1936 Election: Almost total control with 98.8% of votes.

Financial Strategies to Prevent Nationalist Rise

• Investment of funds from wealthier regions (e.g., Bavaria) into poorer areas (e.g., East Prussia) could mitigate support for ultra-nationalists.
• Simulation results indicated that financial intervention could stabilize the Weimar Republic without allowing ultra-nationalists to seize power.

Leadership Changes

• Hypothetical removal of Adolf Hitler (the Austrian painter) could weaken the ultra-nationalist party's unity.
• Without Hitler's leadership, the party may remain divided and less powerful.

Political Dynamics

• Paul von Hindenburg's non-appointment of a nationalist candidate could allow the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to gain strength.
• Potential for a more stable coalition among various political parties, including:
  • SDP
  • German Democratic Party
  • German People's Party
  • Bavarian People's Party
• Strengthened coalition could lead to more stable governance and address conflicts of interest.

Cultural and Economic Developments

• A surviving Weimar Republic would likely recover from the Great Depression, leading to an economic boom.
• Opportunity for artistic, literary, and technological advancements.
• The atomic bomb research could progress unimpeded under a democratic regime.

Global Context Post-Weimar Survival

Spain

• Spanish Civil War dynamics might remain unchanged; Nationalists may still win but possibly with delayed success.

Italy

• Without an expansionist Germany, Italy's actions (e.g., invasion of Ethiopia) may lead to economic sanctions from France and Britain.

Austria

• Potential for peaceful unification with Germany under a democratic regime due to favorable public sentiment.

Soviet Union

• Stalin may avoid starting a world conflict, focusing instead on smaller countries.
• Likely compromises rather than outright war due to the presence of a democratic Germany.

Japan

• Japan could continue its war with China while maintaining trade relations with the West.

Conclusion

• The survival of the Weimar Republic leads to a more stable European landscape.
• Potential for technological advancements and peaceful resolutions in conflicts.
• Speculative possibilities: German achievements in space exploration and the avoidance of major conflicts that historically shaped the 20th century.