Understanding Societal Collapse Predictions

Sep 21, 2024

Lecture Notes: MIT Study on Societal Collapse

Introduction

  • 1972 MIT Research: Predicted societal collapse by 2040.
  • KPMG Follow-Up Study: Found we are ahead of schedule for collapse.
  • Civilization Duration: Advanced civilizations have existed for ~10,000 years; many have collapsed, leaving artifacts and architecture.

Causes of Collapse

  • Four Broad Categories:
    1. Political Issues
    2. Social and Cultural Issues
    3. Environmental Issues
    4. Economic Issues
  • Historical Examples of Collapse:
    • Instantaneous: Pompeii due to Mount Vesuvius.
    • Short-term: Aztec Empire in 93 days against Spanish.
    • Long-term: Roman Empire over 300 years.

Modern Civilization

  • Current State: More advanced and wealthy than any previous civilization.
  • Key Luxuries:
    • Internet access
    • Climate control
    • Worldwide travel
    • Medicine and healthcare
    • Instant communication
    • Abundant food and clean water
  • Richest Person: Elon Musk, recently valued at $270 billion.
  • Comparison of Wealth: Historical figures like Rockefeller and Mansa Musa were rich but lived in times of widespread poverty.

Peacefulness of Modern Era

  • We are in a peaceful period, aided by technology, education, and global cooperation.
  • Increased interdependence among nations reduces likelihood of conflict.

Vulnerabilities of Modern Economy

  • Complexity and Resilience: Modern economies (like jet engines) are powerful but less resilient.
  • Dependency on Resources: Many modern conveniences are reliant on easy access to food and resources.

MIT Study: The Limits to Growth

  • Objective: Assess sustainability of current resource usage.
  • World 3 Model: First economic study using computers to simulate complex systems.
  • Variables Modeled:
    • Population
    • Industrial output
    • Food production
    • Available resources
    • Pollution
  • Feedback Loops: How changes in one variable affect others (e.g., population growth vs. food supply).

Predictions from the Study

  • Hedging Predictions: Researchers adjusted variables to run multiple simulations.
  • Outcomes: Most simulations indicated significant decline around 2040.
  • Comprehensive Technology Scenario:
    • Technology progresses to meet needs.
    • Population plateaus; industrial output declines but efficiency increases.
  • Stabilized World Scenario:
    • Maintains current innovation rate while focusing on renewable energy and recycling.
    • Similar to the Comprehensive Technology Scenario but with proactive measures to prevent collapse.
  • Business-as-Usual Scenario:
    • Predicts societal collapse due to pollution, decreased food production, and resource depletion.

Criticisms of the Study

  • Skepticism: Initial critics questioned the pessimistic outlook regarding human innovation.
  • Necessity and Innovation: It is argued that crisis can drive innovation and attention to critical issues (e.g., renewable energy).

Conclusion

  • The future remains uncertain, with potential for both positive and negative outcomes.
  • Personal Reflection: Encouragement to read the reports for detailed understanding.
  • Final Thoughts: Best case - overblown predictions; worst case - prepare for significant challenges.