let's start today's conversation with the latest from this side of the Atlantic and the new inflation figures and UK CPI remains at the bank of England's Target rate of 2% I know markets were expecting maybe a tad under that at 1.9% so perhaps some disappointment for markets today and of course all eyes will be on the bank of England's interest rate decision next month have these figures this 2% has this affected Market predictions for the for a rate cut next month well uh it's it's a tricky one because you know we are at 2% inflation even though the forecast was for 1.9 uh you know details within that CPI report arguably are are important here like which parts of the uh CPI I think you were mentioning Johnny that we it was part of the services is that right there was something spefic specific in there that that showed some red flags yeah areas like Services which include everything from restaurants to hairdressers and so on price increases remain persistent so they're probably mindful of a cut in rates if that Services number is remaining as it was yeah and that's that's a key point there too is thinking about you know not just the overall headline number but within the report what it's telling us about uh UK consumer rors Etc because you know when when we're talking about rate Cuts one of the uh the the terrible you know mistakes that a central bank can make is cutting interest rates too soon and just Reviving inflation again that being said I mean the UK at 2% inflation they're a lot closer to uh I mean that is their target 2% I think what the bank of England is now looking for is that it's actually going to stay there that it's not going to you know just rise back jump back up uh the second any idea of rate Cuts uh starts forming and and maybe that's a little bit of the concern here today just slightly higher than expected not to mention it also made some moves in the currency World um we were talking about this just before we jumped on that the dollar Index uh is actually down pretty pretty strongly today broke that 104 level we've talked about that on the podcast several times the 104 dxy uh support Zone that's been held for you know going back since March uh officially broke today or at least it is trading below that level at the time of us recording this uh arguably uh there's there's a number of reasons why that could be it's just momentum to the downside for the dollar but also you know if you see other central banks um kind of maybe poised more likely for uh a hawkish stance or or holding interest rates at where they're at and not cutting as much it's all about relativism when it comes to the currency World well if the Central Bank in in the US is is confidently looking to cut interest rates now at least according to Market forecasts right we see like a 98% chance that they cut uh in September according to Fed funds futures um you know that's that's the thing we have to think about that it's all relative when you see news for one Central Bank or one currency it impacts the other ones so you know kind of some interesting moves in the dollar front Big Move lower the UK the pound as youve uh mentioned earlier we are trading above 1.3 on the pound which is a high of the year uh which is you know just showing momentum is clearly uh not with the bulls for the dollar right now in fact uh the blls for the pound have come out uh full swing really really pushing price higher here so we'll have to keep tabs on that uh going forward to see what the Central Bank there does and just as importantly what the Federal Reserve is set to do in their upcoming meetings as well yeah the last time we saw the uh pound against the dollar at 130 for uh the dollar was uh just about exactly a year ago so uh it's h it's going to be better value for UK tourist to the states of course and the pound against the Euro indeed is at 119 sure so again if you hark back to the days of the Liz truss uh mini budget uh which has gone down in history now when uh P against the dollar was uh a significantly borer for the pound things have changed looking at the numbers where you are Nick the NASDAQ is down 2% that's quite a significant chunk what's happening there there's a lot of interesting stories happening in the stock market maybe as interesting by the way um to the to the NASDAQ being down 2% is that on the same day the Dow Jones is actually hitting a high at 25% up so we actually see the Dow up today on the same day the NASDAQ is down this has not been the story of the year or last two years we've actually seen the opposite Tech just seems to never stop going up and uh you know value stocks or more stable kind of uh boring companies uh just get left behind and also you know the other one is the Russell the recent move in the Russell has been insane since the last time I was on the podcast the Russell um since Thursday of last week until now at the time of recording is up just shy of 10% the small cap index just absolutely ripped on the idea that okay CPI is coming down for the US uh and we may be actually seeing the chance a small uh or a stronger chance for a um a soft Landing that is the uh the the theory there at least for small caps reason I bring that up is because you know today the NASDAQ down 2% there was also a headline here that goes with this um mixed in with all this rate cut optimism is also the uncertainty around who our next president is going to be is it going to be Biden staying uh in the white house or are we going to see a swap back to to Donald Trump again this has been the rematch of uh of the decade with these two going back at it again and um recently at least according to uh you know betting websites as well as the market itself which in my view is the ultimate betting website you know when you watch what the financial markets are doing they're telling you what uh investors and Traders who are usually you know at the top highest level very very wise very smart people they're buying and selling different things well we see um you know a lot of in probabilities that Trump is going to take office back uh in November and if that does happen there are a lot of different question marks that come with that one of the big ones and uh investors may remember Traders investors may remember that and currency Traders for that matter may remember what was happening in 2018 when Trump was going uh all out in the trade war that he uh you know pursued heavily with China right so I think a big uh escalation or confirmation that that drama is not over was made clear to us this morning where Trump basically seems to be taking a hard stance on Taiwan with their defense with with transactions with China um and that uh you know basically he he made some statements in regards to the Taiwan situation that I think the market sniffed out that you know Trump is coming back with some Vengeance on that trade War stuff that we saw in 2018 especially with his introduction or his idea of um increasing tariffs and and uh you know all the sorts of uh ways he plans on foreign you know imports and exports and that sort of trade uh is clearly a a pivotal part to what he has proposed in his leadership campaign so you know I think that the market is just saying okay these Tech uh Giants are sensitive to A disruption in the way they're making so much money if if Taiwan which is a Fab producer for you know Nvidia and for for the US semiconductor trade um is under you know if there's if there's some concern there uh that is clearly why the NASDAQ I would say is down 2% today and um you know overall there's there's also something I would throw in there too which is uh Trump has um basically suggested uh tax cuts for some of these giant corporations which uh without putting any sort of personal bias on there I mean that's more money in the pockets of big ginormous companies do they need more money in their pockets that is a Hot Topic and a debate for everyone to have but in terms of winning the tech race more money in the pockets of giants gives them more ammunition more more liquidity to invest in you know um investment in in research and development to continue to stay on top on the on the semiconductor tradeit which is an imperative one to this whole you know AI Revolution so there's a lot here and um you know there's a mixed mixed sentiment as to what happens if what president takes office but uh at this point it is kind of unavoidable in our conversation about about what how it will impact the markets so um he did also make one mention that is important uh to the to the uh currency world as well is that uh he did mention that on on regards to Jerome Powell he was going to keep him there um at least uh for the remainder of his his duration so uh I think that there's some security in that concept because largely they think the financial Community would say that overall Powell is doing a pretty good job um again Up For Debate but uh everything is so overall the the the the community around Finance seems to think he's doing okay if you enjoyed this video from the market insights Market pulse podcast you can listen to the full episode by clicking the link Down Below in the description you can find us on your favorite podcasting apps and again we post several times a week so if you're looking for Market updates throughout the week this is the place to be whether you're in the in the car on the way to work or something like that make sure to tune in to get the latest thank you very much for watching we'll see you on the next one