Speculative History: What If India and Pakistan Were Never Partitioned?

Introduction

• Cricket and Music: What if Sachin Tendulkar and Shoaib Akhtar played on the same team? Joint music contributions from both nations.
• Serious Matters: Impact on economy, international relations, politics, and media.

Historical Context

British Rule and Initial Unity

• 1857: Revolt, Hindus and Muslims fight together.
• British Policy: Divide and Rule implemented afterward.

Rise of Two Nation Theory

• Syed Ahmad Khan: Propounded the Two Nation Theory in the late 1880s.
• 1905: Partition of Bengal along communal lines.
• 1906: Formation of All India Muslim League.
• 1919: Montagu-Chelmsford Reforms instituted separate electorates based on religion.

Key Events Leading to Partition

• 1916: Lucknow Pact accepted separate Muslim electorates.
• 1923-25: Rise of communal organizations — Hindu Mahasabha, RSS.
• 1933: Pakistan Declaration by Rahmat Ali.
• 1940: Lahore Resolution, Jinnah advocated for a separate Muslim state, backed by British leaders.
• 1946: Elections showing Muslim League dominance; call for Direct Action leading to violence.
• 1947: Partition finalized amid widespread violence and displacement.

Prevention Hypotheticals

Opposition to Partition

• Anti-Partition Leaders: Nehru, Sardar Patel, Netaji Bose, Maulana Azad, Gandhi, Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan.
• Cabinet Mission Plan: Desired a weak central government and potentially unstable union.

Scenarios to Prevent Partition

Scenario 1: Gandhi Convinces Jinnah

• Gandhi persuades Jinnah to give up the demand for partition.

Scenario 2: Assassination of Jinnah

• Nathuram Godse kills Jinnah instead of Gandhi, perhaps leading to disarray in Muslim League.

Scenario 3: British Political Changes

• Labour Party: Clement Attlee against partition, could have repealed reserved electorates, and encouraged a universal franchise.
• Stronger Police Action: Arresting Jinnah during Direct Action day.

United India: Potential Outcomes

Demographics and Social Policy

• Population: 62% Hindus, 32% Muslims—more diverse.
• Social Integration Policies: Similar to Singapore's Ethnic Integration Policy.

Political Stability and Secularism

• Nehru's role in uniting diverse groups.
• Brotherhood among people as a prime challenge.
• Policies against forming ghettos for different religious communities.

Elimination of Bangladesh Creation

• Potential to avoid the Bangladesh Liberation War.
• No atrocities from Pakistani government on Bengalis.
• No illegal immigration from Bangladesh into Indian states.

Geopolitical and Economic Implications

• Cold War: Stronger neutrality, possibly avoiding Taliban rise.
• Kashmir Peace: Regional conflict potentially non-existent.
• Defense Savings: Avoidance of wars, reduced defense spending, more funds available for development.

Internal Politics and Soft Power

• No scapegoat like Pakistan for Indian media and politics.
• Need for politicians to focus on meaningful governance instead of communal politics.
• Enhanced soft power and global standing—potentially on par with USA and China.

Challenges of United India

• Large Scale Communal Tensions: Initial years critical for fostering peace and unity among diversified population.
• Economic Integration: Management of larger and more diverse economy.
• Political Integration: Ensuring stable and corruption-free governance across larger territories.

Future Prospects: Reunification

Historical Precedents

• Germany and Vietnam: Examples of successful reunification.

Bottom-up Approach

• Public Sentiment: Need for ground-level support for reunification.
• Ending Communal Politics: Essential for fostering a cooperative atmosphere.
• Cooperation Between Countries: Building progressively towards an Asian Union, akin to the European Union.

Concluding Remarks

• The possibility of reunification lies in ending religious and communal hatred, and fostering cooperation starting at the grassroots.

Call to Action

• Discussion: Encourage public discourse on reunification.
• Implementing Changes: Relief from past errors by systematically addressing issues step-by-step.