MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Investment Insights

Dec 4, 2024

Unrivaled Investing Overview

Introduction

  • Channel focuses on potential multi-baggers: stocks that can increase significantly in value.
  • Example: MicroStrategy (MSTR) increased by 2,000% in recent years, outperforming Bitcoin, major US indices, gold, silver, and tech stocks.
  • Disclosure: Daniel owns shares in App, another company with potential.

MicroStrategy's Unique Strategy

  • MicroStrategy aims to be the first Bitcoin treasury company.
  • Strategy involves issuing debt and equity to purchase Bitcoin.
  • Plans to raise $42 billion through $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed income.
  • Inspired by "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy"'s concept of the meaning of life (42).

MicroStrategy's Software Business

  • Legacy operations include a software business.
  • Recent quarters show declining revenue and profitability.
  • Software segment valuation hard to justify beyond $1-2 billion.

Bitcoin Holdings

  • As of Q3 2024, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin cost around $10 billion for 252,000 coins.
  • Aggressive increase in Bitcoin purchases with $21 billion stock offering.
  • Billion-dollar debt issuance at low interest due to convertible notes.
  • Convertible notes strategy aligns with expected Bitcoin price increases.

Recent Developments

  • Significant Bitcoin purchase during November-December period.
  • Acquired 1.5 billion in Bitcoin at $96,000 per coin.
  • Total Bitcoin holdings as of December 1: 402,000 Bitcoins ($23.4 billion purchase price).

Market Perspective and Strategy

  • Not financial advice; Daniel does not own MicroStrategy shares.
  • Evaluation of membership benefits in the Unrivaled Investing community.

Thoughts on Bitcoin

  • No current Bitcoin holdings; educated on its asymmetric bullish potential.
  • "Broken Money" book highlights Bitcoin's value against authoritarian regimes and currency devaluation.
  • Fixed supply of 21 million coins viewed as hedge against fiat currency issues.
  • Potential for Bitcoin to increase and become a more significant global asset.

MicroStrategy's Valuation

  • Current market cap: ~$103 billion.
  • Bitcoin holdings valued at ~$38 billion, showing a $60 billion premium in market cap.
  • Premium suggests investor belief in Bitcoin's future growth.

Investment Alternatives

  • Value investing strategy contrasts with MicroStrategy's premium.
  • Suggestion to buy Bitcoin through brokers, avoiding premium.
  • Interactive Brokers noted for lower trading costs.

Conclusion

  • MicroStrategy's premium suggests buying Bitcoin directly may yield better returns.
  • Consider Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio.

Final Thoughts

  • Importance of open-mindedness in investing.
  • Encouragement to explore Bitcoin as a potential asset.