Bitcoin Battle for the Bull Market Support Band

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin battle for the bull market support band if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in the last several months have more or less gone as we generally outlined on this channel and of course I say that as someone who knows what it's like to be completely humbled by the market multiple times but we talked a lot back in February March time frame of the idea of Bitcoin putting in sort of a local top back in March one month before the having just like eth did one month one month before the merge setting a few lower highs just whenever one is super bullish and and screaming to the moon and going into a summer lull now we are at a very important point right now if we were to Overlay different moving averages you can actually tell a lot of different narrative to sort of support the current price action and to be completely honest I I feel somewhat torn I will say my general strategy as I've try to be fairly open with what I'm doing at least as it pertains to bitcoin on here is I've essentially kept my crypto portfolio Bitcoin heavy for the last three and a half years right now it is true back in you know 2019 2020 2021 I was more so involved in the altcoin market but seeing tighter monetary policy coming starting in 2022 I just decided i' I'd rather stick with Bitcoin for a while uh no matter the UPS or downs and so far I mean right now it's of course worked out you know there certainly were periods where it it it didn't but it has worked out relatively well so far and one of the things that I I think is interesting is is what's really going to happen over the next two to three weeks and where we are right now is very is a very critical spot in terms of what lies ahead the thing that I will continue to reiterate if Bitcoin can reclaim its 20we moving average and hold it as support then generally speaking it would favor a further rally okay okay that is what it would generally favor actually in 2021 I I said something very similar I I said if we can hold the 20we as we should have clear skies ahead and and we did for a little while uh we did put in a new all-time high but it was only a slightly higher high and then we of course came back down so I would say as it as it relates to right now I mean we're not we're not at this point right this was this was after we had broken through and then we came back down and held it as support we had haven't even broken through yet right we haven't even broken through yet that would be the next step though if we're going to watch Bitcoin continue to emulate post havinge returns and the reason we talk about those post having year returns and I I've said this a few times is because last year looked a lot more like having year returns now what's interesting about post having years is every single one of them had this sort of Lull in the summer months if you go back to 2021 you'll see we had a low right there if you go back to 2017 we had a pretty big pull back into the summer right here right that was into July and then in 2013 we had a pretty b a pretty big pullback into actually slightly below the 20we moving average now what's interesting is the comparison between where we are right now and 2013 but also I've talked a little bit about 2019 as well again I will reiterate I don't think it's going to play out like either one of those but I do think we can learn some from both of those examples if you look at what happened in by Bitcoin in 2013 we had a pullback that bottomed out on July 5th which is what exactly happened in 2024 and then the following week we got back above the 21 we EMA right just the following week now in 2024 we've done something very similar although technically speaking we have not had a weekly close above the 21 week EMA yet because last week unfortunately closed just below the 21 we EMA so the question now is can we actually close above it this week or not now furthermore what's more interesting than just the 21 we EMA is also the 20we SMA because if you look at at 2013 what happened is we Wicked above the 20we SMA a couple of times just like we just did but then ultimately it you know it took about a month to get back above it and you can see that back in 2013 we were also generally setting a series of lower highs as well we slowly worked our way back above the 20we moving average by August um came back down held it as support in September and then we had a Q4 rally right and this is why I said back in March and April when so many were so convinced that we were going to you know blast off right at the Havoc that look we do need some time to sort of digest this move and it's it's normal right I mean it's it's it's just what you normally see after Bitcoin has those fairly explosive rallies and in fact if you look at at at when some of these rallies previously occurred like this one that led into that 2013 Peak I mean it really got going you can see right here it really got this next move that started in October or so of the of the preh having year the prehab here and you could also find similar things back in in 2016 right you can see a move started here in October of the having year and then we had a pullback into that summer so I I think the the thing that's interesting right now to me is does this play out like 2013 2017 and 2021 and just to give you a little bit more insight into that if you were to go look at year-to dat Roi of Bitcoin back in 2017 2021 and 2013 you can see that in all of them they had this low going into the Summer where the market just kind of sold off people gave up and then it and then it started to pick back up in the August to September time frame right you see that and if you look at 2024 I mean you can see that so far it's actually no different let me let me hide the 2013 one just because it it takes up a lot of real estate there but if you just look at at 2014 compared to 2017 and 2021 we're actually right in between those two you see that we're right in between and we showed this before if you average out 2017 and 2021 you get something that looks like this and then if you compare that to 2024 you can see that it's not it's not really that different so far now it's a market and there's no such thing as a sure thing in the market right we cannot look at 2013 and say Well it has to play out like that because there's also this reality that when this happened it happened in a PO having year and that's not where we are right now so there is a possibility where we still get this move but maybe it doesn't happen until say next year right now I know that's not going to be the the most um favorite outcome by you know by a lot of Market participants but it is something we should think about and the only reason I bring it up right and and I I mean look guys I I struggle with this myself because is I you know I I think it's one of those things where it's like your your your mind is telling you one thing your heart's telling you something else but in 2019 it looked like we were probably gearing up for sort of a shorter sort of a left translated Peak and then the market just kind of sold off into those rate Cuts right and so I while I I think comparing this this move to 2013 is is valid and and comparing it to 2021 is valid and we should focus on that especially if we can get back above the 20we moving average it still is valid to compare it to the 2019 move now I do think there's a lot of validity to the idea of these cycles that take place over four years I really do we've seen it happen time and time again that doesn't mean that the peak has to always occur at the same point but the last several Cycles we did see the peak come in in Q4 of the post having year which is still about a year and a half from now right so then the question is do you get something like this sort of in the middle of the cycle just like we did last cycle you know does something like that happen because that's what happened last cycle and you know of course we could make the claim that it's not going to but at least up until this point we haven't seen a real deviation we haven't um now where a deviation could occur would be right now right so that's why I it seems like the next week or so could be very much instrumental in helping us to identify what happens with Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of the year now if you look at this closely what you'll see with the the 2019 comparison is you'll see very similar things right you'll see highs and lower highs right you'll see that that's sort of playing out in a very similar fashion and you'll see your your your move below the 20we SME just like we got right here right the difference between 2013 and 2019 was that in 2013 Bitcoin reclaimed its 20we moving average by August right by August it reclaimed the 20we moving average So within about a month or so but in 2019 it got rejected after it Wicked above its bull market support ban right you see that it Wicked above the 20we moving average and then it got rejected and then it put in a slightly lower low okay now when I talk about the 2019 comparison I'm not talking about this move I'm not this was this is what happened in 2020 not 2019 when we were talking about the 2019 comparison it was always the idea of a high a lower high a lower high over 3 months followed by a drop beneath the 20we moving average right that that's what it was and if it follows the 2019 move in its entirety then it would mean one more slightly lower low that's what it would mean now we don't have to get it and again if you look at 2013 we did not get a lower low the low that occurred on July 5th in 2013 was the low like that was the low for the rest of the year and so there's a chance that the same thing could just have occurred for Bitcoin at the low that we just saw but this is the comparison right and you can even see I I was playing around what I was actually looking at I was looking at the uh the 36 Monon moving average for the unemployment rate because you know if you look at if you look at like the unemployment rate and you look at the 36-month moving average historically when you go above it it means that the you know that the unemployment rate just kind of continues to go up for a while right I mean you can see that that's what was going on and this is one of those things where it kind of goes back to what I've been saying for the last three years right I don't know exactly where the price of bitcoin's going to go but I don't I do think for me it has made sense to have exposure to bitcoin over the last several years because it gives me exposure to the upside minimizes my downside risk and the Bitcoin dominance is likely going higher as it reclaims more of that market share but when I was looking at the unemployment rate 36-month moving average I just happened to switch over to bitcoin and I was looking at this and so here is a comparison that you can still see has played out and that's this move to the highs and then this capitulation below the 20we moving average to the 36 week ese the same spot we just went to with Bitcoin and following that capitulation to the 36 we ese in 2019 we Wicked above the 20we moving average right which if you look closely is some thing that just happened right we just Wicked above it right at that you know right at that 20we ese you see that how we Wicked right above the 20we moving average just like we did in 2019 right but one of the differences between this move and 2019 is in 2019 we actually spent some time consolidating at that level before getting that rally back up whereas this time we really didn't right we just kind of went down to it and we went straight back up in which is more similar to what happened in 2013 right like you you get this move to the downside and then the following week you just get right back up to the 20we you know to the bull market sportpack right so the the quickness of this move seems more reminiscent of what we saw back in 2013 than 2019 but you can see that in 2013 we also did not tag the 36 week SME so I still see you know some comparisons that are are valid and I I you know I've had people ask me well you know how do you because I mean look guys I mean if you've been following sort of the business cycle stuff there's no denying that there's this like there's this thing in the back of your mind this like well you know the FED hasn't pivoted yet the unemployment rate's still going up is there a chance that this is playing out in a way that's similar to 2019 where you still get another lower low and then you find out if you have a hard Landing or a soft Landing right that I I think is is kind of the argument to make in 2019 You could argue that this low right there was the soft landing and then we ended up getting a hard Landing thanks to the pandemic and back then we held support right around that 100 we moving average or so it was approximately the 100 wee moving average so that would have been somewhat reminiscent I think of a soft landing and then the pandemic ended up hitting but you can see that Bitcoin also started to aggressively move back up and then essentially what it did is it put in sort of a double top before then selling off so I look at this now and this is a very important battle for Bitcoin I don't think you should go into this assuming you know what's going to happen I really don't and again I say that as someone who has been humbled by the market several times and I I don't want to go into it assuming I know what's going to happen I think there's this there's this idea where you're brain would say oh no it's just going to get rejected cuz you know people are losing their jobs the unemployment rate is going up your heart is probably say well know Bitcoin is is the next best thing it's probably going to keep gaining value you know they're never going to stop printing money so why will Bitcoin ever stop going up there's competing forces there right and that's why you know in terms of trying to I mean navigating markets is really difficult a lot of times because you know your your brain might tell you one thing your heart might tell you something else for me I just stick to the risk levels right I don't really care what all these narratives are I remember back in March and April saying there's going to be a summer LW getting mocked for it and the same people that mocked me then just spent the last several weeks giving you daily updates as to what the German government was doing rationalizing why Bitcoin didn't break out up here right and again narrative follows price price does not follow narrative okay you didn't have to have the German government selling for Bitcoin to get a summer low I mean you had summer lows in many of bitcoin's years even when it went up in Q4 so you have to be careful assigning The Narrative to it and I guarantee you that if there were a lower low you know if we were to take out this low then I'm sure there would be a narrative assigned to that as well you know maybe it's the you know the mount goau coins uh perhaps it would just be you know a pullback by you know some of these larger cap tech stocks or something I don't know I don't know but that's probably would be the narrative if it were to to occur so the next week or so should be instrumental in helping us identify is it more like 2013 or post having years or is it more like 2019 where Bitcoin sort of sold off into rate Cuts but there is one thing to consider as it relates to the 2019 comparison and that is that that Bitcoin actually topped only one month before the First Rate cut right so there is an example where Bitcoin could get another move to a new high you know in August one month before a potential rate cut in September that's also an option remember this cycle should be different than prior Cycles NE none of the prior Cycles have repeated themselves right if you looked at 2019 and were trying to use 2019 to tell you or if you looked at say 2016 and you were looking at this cycle to tell you what was going to happen in 2019 you would have been lost right you would have been lost if you looked at 2013 to tell you what was going to happen in 2015 2016 you would have been lost because over here you know you had you had like a 70 80% pullback in the middle of the bull Market where you didn't get that in 2017 at all like the largest draw Downs were like only 30 to 40% right so it it's kind of interesting I mean I don't really think you can use any of these prior Cycles to tell you what's going to happen but it it can it can tell you what could happen right this is what's theoretically possible based on what we have previously seen so with that in mind if Bitcoin gets above its 20we moving average just like 2013 right if it can slowly grind above that then it would favor a Q4 rally if it can hold it as support which is what it did over here right it got above it it came back down and held it as support in September and then we had a Q4 rally right same thing here right we held support at the 20we SMA in July and then we ended up getting a pullback in September and then we had a Q4 rally 2021 right same thing we had a low in you know June July we we got above the 20 week sm8 pulled back in September we had a Q4 rally so we've seen that happen many many times where we didn't see that happen was 2019 right where we had a pullback to the 36 week estimate which is where we are which is where we just went a rally back to the 20we moving average but then we got rejected right we didn't even get the chance to hold it as support because we didn't even get above it we just got we just went to a new low right to a new local low where we took out some of these prior lows right you see so that I think is is kind of the question here is is can we get above it if we get above it then the next task would be do we hold it as support in September that's what I would argue right if we get get above it the next the next test would be do we hold it as support in September there there often is some unfavorable seasonality in September um that doesn't mean every September is going to be unfavorable in fact last September uh Bitcoin actually went up during the month of September it wasn't even a red month I mean it's not like price did a whole lot but it it was not a A bad month right we actually had a sell off in August and then in September we slowly worked our way back up so I've also said too that if you compare this just to last year there are similarities right local top in April local top in March right another rally in the summer another another rally in the summer this rally here started in June this one there started in in in late April early May so it's kind of shifted by one month the drop below the 20we SMA back last year was in August this drop started in July right we got it in below the bullmark support band in July we rallied back up to the bull market support band with a weekly close or sorry with just a wick in August right which is now potentially where we are right because now we're in July and we're back up to the 20we moving average the question is is do we do we hold it do we get back above it or do we come back down and test that trend line one of the trend lines that we talked about and we actually did this pretty much on the day or within a couple of days of tagging it was this trend line right here you see that trend line bitcoin's been holding that as support it's also been holding this as resistance I don't know how you want to draw it whether you sort of draw it like that or whatever but it's been holding maybe you draw it as a parallel Channel just uh and then connect the dots at the lows is perhaps the way to do it um right here so we'll draw this parallel Channel and they'll just go up say all right well what if we're in this parallel channel right here all right some might call it a bull flag right some might call it a bull flag and and we actually had something similar in 2019 as well if you look at um uh 2019 you could see that arguably arguably right we had something very very similar maybe I need to fix how I draw that but you can kind of see it right you have sort of a low lower low lower low right you kind of kept coming down to that near the bottom of the channel and you also were setting Highs at the top of the channel you see and then eventually we broke out of it you see eventually we broke out of it and then of course the pandemic hit and the rest is history right but that's ultimately what happened so if you look at a very similar thing over here it's kind of a similar thing but the angle of descent isn't quite as steep right over here the angle of descent was a lot steeper here it's not as steep there's a lot there's less volatility You could argue because I mean the moves over here were much more intense you know like the rally from that low right there to the top of the channel was like 45% if you look at the rally that we just had from this low to back up near the top of the channel it's about 24% right 24 25% so slightly different less volatility arguably this cycle than than what we saw last cycle but those are I I think the similarities to to at least talk about so listen we talked a lot about this entire move we outlined it I would like to think about as accurately as we could and look guys I've B on the wrong side of the market multiple times throughout the years and one of the things I I'd like to say is that you know we talked a lot about back over here going below the 8we ese wicking down to the 20 we moving average getting a move off of it that's what normally happens back above the 8we SMA going back below it falling below the 20we moving average getting a bounce after that drop to the 20we SMA we talked about this a lot right we talked about this a lot and one of the one of the ways we talked about this was looking at like the relative strength index and just saying look guys this is exactly where we got bounces last year off the weekly RSI and even in 2019 right even in 2019 so it would make sense to assume that we're going to go back to the 20we moving average right we said this just a couple of weeks ago so I'd like to think that I've done a pretty good job of outlining this move um especially after getting my face ripped off um with this one and I've look I've tried to become more open-minded uh to you know to these to these outcomes I think again it's sort of just the market humbling humbling me um I just think the next step is is what happens here because you know the 8we SMA is at 63,9 3 so we're slightly above it right six let's just call it 64k right approximately 64k that's where the 8we ese is we're slightly above it we just w above the 20we moving average if you look at 2013 what happened we got we Wicked to the 20we SME and above the 8 we but then we closed below it but then the following week we got above it right the week of July 22nd which would be next week we got above the 8we moving average that would be next week in 2019 very similar thing right got above the 8we SME with a wick all the way up weekly close above it and then we just kind of faded back down to a slightly lower low so again if you're looking to me to tell you what's going to happen you're at the wrong spot I've told you guys before my strategy buy and sell according to the risk levels ignore everything else and you know it's interesting because if you look at a lot of these um a lot of the different things like the fear and GRE index we went to some pretty low levels not that long ago I mean now we're all the way back up to fear and grea 69 we just went all the way down to like 25 which is basically the lowest it had been um even lower than what we saw in 2023 it was lower than what we saw in 2023 it's kind of interesting um and if you look at at you know something like the uh the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator the spot that we just bounced off of was the same spot we bounced off of in 2023 you see that that was basically the same spot um so this has been really one really interesting move for Bitcoin and again I would always say hope for the best plan for the worst hope that Bitcoin gets back above its weekly 20we Ese and hopefully it holds to that support and we can get a rally into the end of the year if it doesn't happen make sure you have a plan to account for if it does go lower again how you could take advantage of something like that so that is all I would say about this whole move I do think this is a pretty intense battle with the 20we moving average this is where you know both sides are going to do the best they can to if you're a bull you're going to want to get us through the 20we obviously if you're a bear you're going to want to hold as resistance I will say I'm just going to be over here respecting what happens and and going from there if it plays out like 2019 and it's just a wick above it and then then we just fade back down like this then I'll say all right it's 2019 it's just the same thing um if we can get back above the 20we ese like 2013 then it would then favor a a further rally right it's all very familiar it just depends on what your bias ISS you know the thing is is even the 2019 thing I mean back in March when we talked about this 2019 comparison which has mostly played out right I mean I'm sure there's some out there that would say that it was not a valid comparison um but look I mean it's all but played out at this point all these highs and lower highs followed by a drop below the 20we moving average it all all played out the only other thing that happened in 2019 was just one more lower low which again I've said before you should not expect it to play out in the exact same way it might it also might just be a different path because it's not 2019 and it's not 2013 so this has played out pretty closely but if you have a problem with the 2019 comparison I mean remember this is what happened the next year right so like let's suppose that we don't see it play out in 2013 let's suppose you don't get like this this rally right here that obviously everyone's wanting maybe it just gets delayed until the following year right you could have argued that something happen in 2019 like that right where you had this rally a lot of people were wanting a second rally right here to go to you know to much higher highs we didn't get it but guess what we got it the following year so you could you know you certainly could see something like that play out got that rally there and then that one what's actually another interesting thing to look at is is just looking at it in terms of uh monetary policy and if you look at it like this like if you look at interest rates with Bitcoin one of the one one thing I find really interesting is if you look at the pause right here see where Bitcoin or the FED paus rates Bitcoin basically did the same thing after the pause you see that what it did was it it initially sold off when the FED paused right you see that and then it had a fairly explosive rally right I mean it it's kind of interesting because it it it really is somewhat similar in the sense that you you get a Fed pause and then you get this explosive rally to the upside now back then obviously Bitcoin rallied until one month before the First Rate cut we're not at the First Rate cut yet and it doesn't look like we're getting a rate cut in July unless something major happens the next two weeks we're probably not going to get a rate cut in July but we could get one in September if you look at at the uh the September probabilities let me see this isn't even loading right now correctly but if you look at I believe if you looked at the September probabilities the the expectation is is likely for a a a rate cut right here you can see it about a 95% chance that they're going to cut to 25 basis points a 5% chance that they'll be all the way down at 5% by then so that is is is is is something that make some sense to look at because we know that monetary policy at least I feel like I know I could be wrong but I feel like I know that monetary policy plays a role I think one way to sort of visualize how monetary policy has played a role and and how it is sort of manifesting even if it doesn't seem like it is when you look at at something like Bitcoin dominance without stable coins and you look at at 2024 it's been tring up basically all year long right you see that been tring up but if you had looked at 2016 and 2020 before 2024 began you would have looked at this and said that oh it's a having year Bitcoin dominance is going to go down until the third quarter right wouldn't you have maybe made that assumption if you had looked at just this chart 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables you would have just assumed that dominance would probably just sell off until the third quarter and then get another rally back up but it wouldn't really go it wouldn't really ever be in a in an obvious uptrend right it might be go down for a while back up back down back up but you're not really seeing an obvious uptrend but because of monetary policy I said no this doesn't make that much sense I think dominance is going to go up in the having year and sure enough you can see a fairly obvious uptrend in dominance that is different than what we saw in the last two having years right I mean it's pretty clearly different that doesn't mean there can't be some form of a of another sort of selloff and dominance kind of around the spot ETF approval for ethereum um and I've said that before sort of the weak point would be you know the next month or so if it's going to if it's going to come back down but you can see that all these other larger drops by dominance in having years that we saw about in in Prior having years we didn't see this having year right all the drops that we've had still just led to a higher low whereas in Prior having Years A lot of them were leading to lower lows right these were lower lows going in um but this year it's been higher lows so because of monetary policy Bitcoin has continued to outperform the collective market right and so because of that I I think maybe it makes sense to Overlay Bitcoin with monetary policy like with interest rates and you can see that it actually I mean if you take a bar pattern from like right here to this low that was set and then just take it out sort of through the end of 2019 you'll see it it's kind of a very similar move right a very very similar move the only difference is that this time it's taken a little bit longer for it to play out which makes sense because the pause has been longer last cycle the pause was only half a year this cycle the pause it's already been a year right this July will be one year since the FED paused rates and all you really have to do is just kind of expand this over and see the similarities all you have to do is sort of expand that over and you can see you know how it how it lines up I think the main difference that could still play out is does Bitcoin rally into rate Cuts Like it did in 2019 right but there's this other thing that I I also have in the back of my mind and I remember from 2019 in June of 2019 the FED came out at the fomc and said look guys we're not going to cut rates until next year until 2020 and then in July July they cut rates and it was actually in July when Bitcoin rallied it was a two-e rally right we got a twoe rally and so I'm wondering you know is the current rally right now that bitcoin's getting we've it's gone on for a couple weeks now is it is it because the market is now convinced I mean legitimately the market says there's a 0% chance of a rate cut or of of no rate cut by September that's what the market says so a rate cut has been is getting fully priced in at this point you can see that right a rate cut is is getting fully priced in because the probability of them not cutting by September according to CME Group is 0% which is kind of scary to some degree because the implication is well what happens if you get a a hot inflation print between now and then and then you go from pricing in this rate cut to then having to price it back out that could it's kind of a game of chicken with the FED right the FED wants to cut rates but then the Market front runs it and then the the the the timing of the First Rate cut has just been getting pushed further and further and further out there's some people out there that say no rate Cuts until 2025 in fact if at the next meeting the FED came out and said no rate Cuts until 2025 that would be a k to what they did in 2019 at the June meeting where they came out and said no rate Cuts until 2025 and when they said that or until 2020 and when they said that it was the following month that all Bitcoin pairs broke down right and the Bitcoin dominance it's had its final surge so I look at it I'm like well do you wait you know when when Bitcoin had this rally right there it was when the FED cut rates but the FED did not advertise that rate cut they in fact said we weren't going to have a rate cut now we're getting a rally I think because we're we're starting to stiff out those rate cuts and you really don't even need to look any further than just traditional markets I mean look at what the Russell 2000 just did did you guys see the Russell this past week look at this move right small caps are starting to sniff out some of these rate C in fact if you were to look at the Russell divided by the NASDAQ it's had a fairly explosive move now it's not the first time that it's had a move like this back above it 20we moving average right it did something similar back in January and in fact I mean you could argue right you could argue that if you connect these dots it kind of looks like it's rallied back up to the breakdown Point kind of like over here right you could see when it broke down right here it had this breakdown here and then it rallied back up to the breakdown Point same thing just happened you see the same thing how how the same thing just occurred and of course it it did go above the bullmark S end just like it did back over here so I know there's a lot of people thinking that this rotation to to small caps is durable and and look they could be right but I I still think that Bitcoin will reclaim more market share by the end of the year I really do I think Bitcoin dominance is poised to continue going higher because we know last cycle we didn't even see it top until two months after the First Rate cut and it also didn't top until QE began which didn't occur until September of 2019 that still hasn't happened yet so because of that I I feel compelled sort of my strongest conviction for the last several years has just been Bitcoin dominance is going to go higher no matter the direction of Bitcoin USD now of course there's a lot of people that think well it that means that Bitcoin can only go up or that means it can only go down no it's simple it's guys it doesn't matter what way Bitcoin goes dominance goes up either way so we're all investors here right I mean you wouldn't be here if you didn't like taking on some level of risk that's why I've said Bitcoin gives you exposure to the upside but it also minimizes your downside risk now that might sound crazy to a lot of people but if you compare it to the altcoin market I would say that's true now if you compare it to the S&P maybe it's not true right I mean certainly Bitcoin can get bigger draw it's gotten larger draw Downs than what you typically see happen with the S&P 500 but it's still if you're if you're accepting the risk of crypto to begin with Bitcoin helps you mitigate that downside Risk by having that over say um a lot of different altcoins so I think where we are is is a very critical juncture right now uh in terms of what happens for the rest of the year and I'm just trying to be upfront with you guys right now if we get back above the 20 week as and and hold it as support then it favors new all-time highs right that's just the reality if it gets rejected and we start to come back down below the 21 we EMA this it favors a lower low right again that's just the reality you could be on either either side of that and not like either of those outcomes but the secret to investing be prepared for both right don't worry so much about it just be prepared for both right it means having you know for me it means having a Bitcoin position but also look if it continues to drop like 2019 getting uh getting some more so we'll see what happens here at the 20we moving average um you know whether it it actually comes back down I think like one of the differences between 2019 and 2013 is 2013 like it it wasn't really setting lower lows and higher and lower highs it was setting sort of like a higher it was it more looked like this right it looked more like that maybe you could argue it was in that channel if you ignore the April this April Wick perhaps you could argue that um but yeah I mean these are I think these are really really interesting times um for Bitcoin and and if it if we do get another rally like if Bitcoin breaks Above This channel here right so I guess the two the two different options here so one path would be sort of coming back down um and then doing something like this another path would be you go up get above it come back down hold it as support right around that September time frame that would be another path so this this path up here is more so the 2013 path this path would be more like the 2019 path where it's like a slightly lower low a couple months later one interesting thing about this is that I do think there will be a lot of volatility either way and if you look at like all Bitcoin pairs what you'll notice here is that every couple of months we've been putting in a lower low right so here you had one in February and then a lower low in April and then a lower low in June so the next one would be due for August the reason why August is interesting is because last cycle all Bitcoin pairs durably broke down in June one month before the First Rate cut now the First Rate cut back then was July that's when all Bitcoin pairs broke down was in June one month before and so if you look at it here you could argue well if if if altcoins are are destined to set another lower low two months after this low in August that would be one month before when the market at least thinks the next rate cut is going to be in September so it it seems like I mean it seems like it's playing out in a similar fashion with monetary policy but it also seems kind of similar to to post having year returns and I go back and forth but look guys I I think I'm at the point where I don't I don't really care that much I mean it whatever happens happens um if if we get a here's the thing about Bitcoin right if you get a draw down like a larger pullback you're still well you you still made a lot of money right I mean you know if you've just been sticking with Bitcoin throughout this entire phase you've still done really really well even if it gets a pullback if you stuck with altcoins I mean I'm not saying you're necessarily hurting depending on which altcoin you got but some of those alts haven't really done that well right so it kind of It kind of more so depends on which altcoin you got whereas with Bitcoin it was just more obvious right with Bitcoin you you just knew more or less that Bitcoin would do pretty well if if if crypto does well it's cuz bitcoin's doing well not the other way around whereas with the altcoin market you had to be able to pick the one that would outperform and and most of them did not even though some of them did most of them did not so that I I I think is a is a is an interesting comparison so let's see if it's if it's more like 2013 where you you take out these highs um you know here the next month or two and then you get a Q4 rally like 2013 2017 and 2021 or if it ends up playing out like 2019 my guess is that regardless if it's rejected if it's rejected then guess what Bitcoin dominance goes up if it if it breaks new highs Bitcoin dominance goes up one other thing before I forget is to look at at all Bitcoin pairs it is actually kind of similar to what we saw um earlier so if we if we just overlay really really quickly um Bitcoin USD onto this chart so you see how all Bitcoin pairs have been playing out here look at this you see this low that occurred on a Bitcoin dump okay so here you had this low on a Bitcoin dump and then you had this low on this Bitcoin dump so like basically Bitcoin is putting in these lower highs and if you compare what was going on into those lower highs right all Bitcoin pairs were capitulating right there and right there they were capitulating into those lows as Bitcoin was dumping and then in April all Bitcoin pairs had this rally back up where you kind of had sort of three tops over here and then those tops occurred as Bitcoin was going back up you see that so after the low was set after the local low was set all Bitcoin pairs started to go back up right they started to go back up and and and and as or at least not after not necessarily after the first local low but they we saw all Bitcoin pairs sell off during a Bitcoin dump as Bitcoin started to get a rally back up to the top of the channel right as that happened all Bitcoin pairs were back up here right sort of setting this distribution phase right you see all Bitcoin pairs were sort of Distributing back right here as Bitcoin was just churning through this level and then Bitcoin came back up reached kind of this hot this upward Channel up here all Bitcoin pairs had fallen off and then just Consolidated for a little bit and then they sold off again as Bitcoin came back down right so if Bitcoin were to if it were to play out like what happened last time right if you argue if you argue that like this move right here is similar to this one then draw the line right draw the line right here here right here basically all Bitcoin payers had this distribution they then sold off Consolidated for a few weeks while Bitcoin even went higher back up to the top of the channel and then they sold off again so you could argue that all Bitcoin pairs are repeating you know either one of these things where they're in this sort of this distribution Zone um and and Bitcoin slowly reclaiming Market share again I know it's not a popular Theory guys but I mean all Bitcoin pairs just keep on they just keep on putting in lower lows right you see that or sorry lower highs and lower lows now of course they'll turn around at some point but I I don't know if they've turned around just yet I I actually think they haven't so it looks kind of similar right these these tops that all Bitcoin pairs go through and they just sort of distribute out during these ranges the bitcoin's in and then they then just collapse to a new low and you've seen it happen now several times right several times so that's where we are with the market let's see what Bitcoin has in store if it can get back above its 20we moving average or not we should know here within the next couple of weeks thank you guys for tuning in subscribe give the video thumbs up and again check out the sale on into the crypto premium at intothe crypt.of

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we&#39;re going to talk about Bitcoin battle for the bull market support band if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom let&#39;s go ahead and jump in the last several months have more or less gone as we generally outlined on this channel and of course I say that as someone who knows what it&#39;s like to be completely humbled by the market multiple times but we talked a lot back in February March time frame of the idea of Bitcoin putting in sort of a local top back in March one month before the having just like eth did one month one month before the merge setting a few lower highs just whenever one is super bullish and and screaming to the moon and going into a summer lull now we are at a very important point right now if we were to Overlay different moving averages you can actually tell a lot of different narrative to sort of support the current price action and to be completely honest I I feel somewhat torn I will say my general strategy as I&#39;ve try to be fairly open with what I&#39;m doing at least as it pertains to bitcoin on here is I&#39;ve essentially kept my crypto portfolio Bitcoin heavy for the last three and a half years right now it is true back in you know 2019 2020 2021 I was more so involved in the altcoin market but seeing tighter monetary policy coming starting in 2022 I just decided i&#39; I&#39;d rather stick with Bitcoin for a while uh no matter the UPS or downs and so far I mean right now it&#39;s of course worked out you know there certainly were periods where it it it didn&#39;t but it has worked out relatively well so far and one of the things that I I think is interesting is is what&#39;s really going to happen over the next two to three weeks and where we are right now is very is a very critical spot in terms of what lies ahead the thing that I will continue to reiterate if Bitcoin can reclaim its 20we moving average and hold it as support then generally speaking it would favor a further rally okay okay that is what it would generally favor actually in 2021 I I said something very similar I I said if we can hold the 20we as we should have clear skies ahead and and we did for a little while uh we did put in a new all-time high but it was only a slightly higher high and then we of course came back down so I would say as it as it relates to right now I mean we&#39;re not we&#39;re not at this point right this was this was after we had broken through and then we came back down and held it as support we had haven&#39;t even broken through yet right we haven&#39;t even broken through yet that would be the next step though if we&#39;re going to watch Bitcoin continue to emulate post havinge returns and the reason we talk about those post having year returns and I I&#39;ve said this a few times is because last year looked a lot more like having year returns now what&#39;s interesting about post having years is every single one of them had this sort of Lull in the summer months if you go back to 2021 you&#39;ll see we had a low right there if you go back to 2017 we had a pretty big pull back into the summer right here right that was into July and then in 2013 we had a pretty b a pretty big pullback into actually slightly below the 20we moving average now what&#39;s interesting is the comparison between where we are right now and 2013 but also I&#39;ve talked a little bit about 2019 as well again I will reiterate I don&#39;t think it&#39;s going to play out like either one of those but I do think we can learn some from both of those examples if you look at what happened in by Bitcoin in 2013 we had a pullback that bottomed out on July 5th which is what exactly happened in 2024 and then the following week we got back above the 21 we EMA right just the following week now in 2024 we&#39;ve done something very similar although technically speaking we have not had a weekly close above the 21 week EMA yet because last week unfortunately closed just below the 21 we EMA so the question now is can we actually close above it this week or not now furthermore what&#39;s more interesting than just the 21 we EMA is also the 20we SMA because if you look at at 2013 what happened is we Wicked above the 20we SMA a couple of times just like we just did but then ultimately it you know it took about a month to get back above it and you can see that back in 2013 we were also generally setting a series of lower highs as well we slowly worked our way back above the 20we moving average by August um came back down held it as support in September and then we had a Q4 rally right and this is why I said back in March and April when so many were so convinced that we were going to you know blast off right at the Havoc that look we do need some time to sort of digest this move and it&#39;s it&#39;s normal right I mean it&#39;s it&#39;s it&#39;s just what you normally see after Bitcoin has those fairly explosive rallies and in fact if you look at at at when some of these rallies previously occurred like this one that led into that 2013 Peak I mean it really got going you can see right here it really got this next move that started in October or so of the of the preh having year the prehab here and you could also find similar things back in in 2016 right you can see a move started here in October of the having year and then we had a pullback into that summer so I I think the the thing that&#39;s interesting right now to me is does this play out like 2013 2017 and 2021 and just to give you a little bit more insight into that if you were to go look at year-to dat Roi of Bitcoin back in 2017 2021 and 2013 you can see that in all of them they had this low going into the Summer where the market just kind of sold off people gave up and then it and then it started to pick back up in the August to September time frame right you see that and if you look at 2024 I mean you can see that so far it&#39;s actually no different let me let me hide the 2013 one just because it it takes up a lot of real estate there but if you just look at at 2014 compared to 2017 and 2021 we&#39;re actually right in between those two you see that we&#39;re right in between and we showed this before if you average out 2017 and 2021 you get something that looks like this and then if you compare that to 2024 you can see that it&#39;s not it&#39;s not really that different so far now it&#39;s a market and there&#39;s no such thing as a sure thing in the market right we cannot look at 2013 and say Well it has to play out like that because there&#39;s also this reality that when this happened it happened in a PO having year and that&#39;s not where we are right now so there is a possibility where we still get this move but maybe it doesn&#39;t happen until say next year right now I know that&#39;s not going to be the the most um favorite outcome by you know by a lot of Market participants but it is something we should think about and the only reason I bring it up right and and I I mean look guys I I struggle with this myself because is I you know I I think it&#39;s one of those things where it&#39;s like your your your mind is telling you one thing your heart&#39;s telling you something else but in 2019 it looked like we were probably gearing up for sort of a shorter sort of a left translated Peak and then the market just kind of sold off into those rate Cuts right and so I while I I think comparing this this move to 2013 is is valid and and comparing it to 2021 is valid and we should focus on that especially if we can get back above the 20we moving average it still is valid to compare it to the 2019 move now I do think there&#39;s a lot of validity to the idea of these cycles that take place over four years I really do we&#39;ve seen it happen time and time again that doesn&#39;t mean that the peak has to always occur at the same point but the last several Cycles we did see the peak come in in Q4 of the post having year which is still about a year and a half from now right so then the question is do you get something like this sort of in the middle of the cycle just like we did last cycle you know does something like that happen because that&#39;s what happened last cycle and you know of course we could make the claim that it&#39;s not going to but at least up until this point we haven&#39;t seen a real deviation we haven&#39;t um now where a deviation could occur would be right now right so that&#39;s why I it seems like the next week or so could be very much instrumental in helping us to identify what happens with Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of the year now if you look at this closely what you&#39;ll see with the the 2019 comparison is you&#39;ll see very similar things right you&#39;ll see highs and lower highs right you&#39;ll see that that&#39;s sort of playing out in a very similar fashion and you&#39;ll see your your your move below the 20we SME just like we got right here right the difference between 2013 and 2019 was that in 2013 Bitcoin reclaimed its 20we moving average by August right by August it reclaimed the 20we moving average So within about a month or so but in 2019 it got rejected after it Wicked above its bull market support ban right you see that it Wicked above the 20we moving average and then it got rejected and then it put in a slightly lower low okay now when I talk about the 2019 comparison I&#39;m not talking about this move I&#39;m not this was this is what happened in 2020 not 2019 when we were talking about the 2019 comparison it was always the idea of a high a lower high a lower high over 3 months followed by a drop beneath the 20we moving average right that that&#39;s what it was and if it follows the 2019 move in its entirety then it would mean one more slightly lower low that&#39;s what it would mean now we don&#39;t have to get it and again if you look at 2013 we did not get a lower low the low that occurred on July 5th in 2013 was the low like that was the low for the rest of the year and so there&#39;s a chance that the same thing could just have occurred for Bitcoin at the low that we just saw but this is the comparison right and you can even see I I was playing around what I was actually looking at I was looking at the uh the 36 Monon moving average for the unemployment rate because you know if you look at if you look at like the unemployment rate and you look at the 36-month moving average historically when you go above it it means that the you know that the unemployment rate just kind of continues to go up for a while right I mean you can see that that&#39;s what was going on and this is one of those things where it kind of goes back to what I&#39;ve been saying for the last three years right I don&#39;t know exactly where the price of bitcoin&#39;s going to go but I don&#39;t I do think for me it has made sense to have exposure to bitcoin over the last several years because it gives me exposure to the upside minimizes my downside risk and the Bitcoin dominance is likely going higher as it reclaims more of that market share but when I was looking at the unemployment rate 36-month moving average I just happened to switch over to bitcoin and I was looking at this and so here is a comparison that you can still see has played out and that&#39;s this move to the highs and then this capitulation below the 20we moving average to the 36 week ese the same spot we just went to with Bitcoin and following that capitulation to the 36 we ese in 2019 we Wicked above the 20we moving average right which if you look closely is some thing that just happened right we just Wicked above it right at that you know right at that 20we ese you see that how we Wicked right above the 20we moving average just like we did in 2019 right but one of the differences between this move and 2019 is in 2019 we actually spent some time consolidating at that level before getting that rally back up whereas this time we really didn&#39;t right we just kind of went down to it and we went straight back up in which is more similar to what happened in 2013 right like you you get this move to the downside and then the following week you just get right back up to the 20we you know to the bull market sportpack right so the the quickness of this move seems more reminiscent of what we saw back in 2013 than 2019 but you can see that in 2013 we also did not tag the 36 week SME so I still see you know some comparisons that are are valid and I I you know I&#39;ve had people ask me well you know how do you because I mean look guys I mean if you&#39;ve been following sort of the business cycle stuff there&#39;s no denying that there&#39;s this like there&#39;s this thing in the back of your mind this like well you know the FED hasn&#39;t pivoted yet the unemployment rate&#39;s still going up is there a chance that this is playing out in a way that&#39;s similar to 2019 where you still get another lower low and then you find out if you have a hard Landing or a soft Landing right that I I think is is kind of the argument to make in 2019 You could argue that this low right there was the soft landing and then we ended up getting a hard Landing thanks to the pandemic and back then we held support right around that 100 we moving average or so it was approximately the 100 wee moving average so that would have been somewhat reminiscent I think of a soft landing and then the pandemic ended up hitting but you can see that Bitcoin also started to aggressively move back up and then essentially what it did is it put in sort of a double top before then selling off so I look at this now and this is a very important battle for Bitcoin I don&#39;t think you should go into this assuming you know what&#39;s going to happen I really don&#39;t and again I say that as someone who has been humbled by the market several times and I I don&#39;t want to go into it assuming I know what&#39;s going to happen I think there&#39;s this there&#39;s this idea where you&#39;re brain would say oh no it&#39;s just going to get rejected cuz you know people are losing their jobs the unemployment rate is going up your heart is probably say well know Bitcoin is is the next best thing it&#39;s probably going to keep gaining value you know they&#39;re never going to stop printing money so why will Bitcoin ever stop going up there&#39;s competing forces there right and that&#39;s why you know in terms of trying to I mean navigating markets is really difficult a lot of times because you know your your brain might tell you one thing your heart might tell you something else for me I just stick to the risk levels right I don&#39;t really care what all these narratives are I remember back in March and April saying there&#39;s going to be a summer LW getting mocked for it and the same people that mocked me then just spent the last several weeks giving you daily updates as to what the German government was doing rationalizing why Bitcoin didn&#39;t break out up here right and again narrative follows price price does not follow narrative okay you didn&#39;t have to have the German government selling for Bitcoin to get a summer low I mean you had summer lows in many of bitcoin&#39;s years even when it went up in Q4 so you have to be careful assigning The Narrative to it and I guarantee you that if there were a lower low you know if we were to take out this low then I&#39;m sure there would be a narrative assigned to that as well you know maybe it&#39;s the you know the mount goau coins uh perhaps it would just be you know a pullback by you know some of these larger cap tech stocks or something I don&#39;t know I don&#39;t know but that&#39;s probably would be the narrative if it were to to occur so the next week or so should be instrumental in helping us identify is it more like 2013 or post having years or is it more like 2019 where Bitcoin sort of sold off into rate Cuts but there is one thing to consider as it relates to the 2019 comparison and that is that that Bitcoin actually topped only one month before the First Rate cut right so there is an example where Bitcoin could get another move to a new high you know in August one month before a potential rate cut in September that&#39;s also an option remember this cycle should be different than prior Cycles NE none of the prior Cycles have repeated themselves right if you looked at 2019 and were trying to use 2019 to tell you or if you looked at say 2016 and you were looking at this cycle to tell you what was going to happen in 2019 you would have been lost right you would have been lost if you looked at 2013 to tell you what was going to happen in 2015 2016 you would have been lost because over here you know you had you had like a 70 80% pullback in the middle of the bull Market where you didn&#39;t get that in 2017 at all like the largest draw Downs were like only 30 to 40% right so it it&#39;s kind of interesting I mean I don&#39;t really think you can use any of these prior Cycles to tell you what&#39;s going to happen but it it can it can tell you what could happen right this is what&#39;s theoretically possible based on what we have previously seen so with that in mind if Bitcoin gets above its 20we moving average just like 2013 right if it can slowly grind above that then it would favor a Q4 rally if it can hold it as support which is what it did over here right it got above it it came back down and held it as support in September and then we had a Q4 rally right same thing here right we held support at the 20we SMA in July and then we ended up getting a pullback in September and then we had a Q4 rally 2021 right same thing we had a low in you know June July we we got above the 20 week sm8 pulled back in September we had a Q4 rally so we&#39;ve seen that happen many many times where we didn&#39;t see that happen was 2019 right where we had a pullback to the 36 week estimate which is where we are which is where we just went a rally back to the 20we moving average but then we got rejected right we didn&#39;t even get the chance to hold it as support because we didn&#39;t even get above it we just got we just went to a new low right to a new local low where we took out some of these prior lows right you see so that I think is is kind of the question here is is can we get above it if we get above it then the next task would be do we hold it as support in September that&#39;s what I would argue right if we get get above it the next the next test would be do we hold it as support in September there there often is some unfavorable seasonality in September um that doesn&#39;t mean every September is going to be unfavorable in fact last September uh Bitcoin actually went up during the month of September it wasn&#39;t even a red month I mean it&#39;s not like price did a whole lot but it it was not a A bad month right we actually had a sell off in August and then in September we slowly worked our way back up so I&#39;ve also said too that if you compare this just to last year there are similarities right local top in April local top in March right another rally in the summer another another rally in the summer this rally here started in June this one there started in in in late April early May so it&#39;s kind of shifted by one month the drop below the 20we SMA back last year was in August this drop started in July right we got it in below the bullmark support band in July we rallied back up to the bull market support band with a weekly close or sorry with just a wick in August right which is now potentially where we are right because now we&#39;re in July and we&#39;re back up to the 20we moving average the question is is do we do we hold it do we get back above it or do we come back down and test that trend line one of the trend lines that we talked about and we actually did this pretty much on the day or within a couple of days of tagging it was this trend line right here you see that trend line bitcoin&#39;s been holding that as support it&#39;s also been holding this as resistance I don&#39;t know how you want to draw it whether you sort of draw it like that or whatever but it&#39;s been holding maybe you draw it as a parallel Channel just uh and then connect the dots at the lows is perhaps the way to do it um right here so we&#39;ll draw this parallel Channel and they&#39;ll just go up say all right well what if we&#39;re in this parallel channel right here all right some might call it a bull flag right some might call it a bull flag and and we actually had something similar in 2019 as well if you look at um uh 2019 you could see that arguably arguably right we had something very very similar maybe I need to fix how I draw that but you can kind of see it right you have sort of a low lower low lower low right you kind of kept coming down to that near the bottom of the channel and you also were setting Highs at the top of the channel you see and then eventually we broke out of it you see eventually we broke out of it and then of course the pandemic hit and the rest is history right but that&#39;s ultimately what happened so if you look at a very similar thing over here it&#39;s kind of a similar thing but the angle of descent isn&#39;t quite as steep right over here the angle of descent was a lot steeper here it&#39;s not as steep there&#39;s a lot there&#39;s less volatility You could argue because I mean the moves over here were much more intense you know like the rally from that low right there to the top of the channel was like 45% if you look at the rally that we just had from this low to back up near the top of the channel it&#39;s about 24% right 24 25% so slightly different less volatility arguably this cycle than than what we saw last cycle but those are I I think the similarities to to at least talk about so listen we talked a lot about this entire move we outlined it I would like to think about as accurately as we could and look guys I&#39;ve B on the wrong side of the market multiple times throughout the years and one of the things I I&#39;d like to say is that you know we talked a lot about back over here going below the 8we ese wicking down to the 20 we moving average getting a move off of it that&#39;s what normally happens back above the 8we SMA going back below it falling below the 20we moving average getting a bounce after that drop to the 20we SMA we talked about this a lot right we talked about this a lot and one of the one of the ways we talked about this was looking at like the relative strength index and just saying look guys this is exactly where we got bounces last year off the weekly RSI and even in 2019 right even in 2019 so it would make sense to assume that we&#39;re going to go back to the 20we moving average right we said this just a couple of weeks ago so I&#39;d like to think that I&#39;ve done a pretty good job of outlining this move um especially after getting my face ripped off um with this one and I&#39;ve look I&#39;ve tried to become more open-minded uh to you know to these to these outcomes I think again it&#39;s sort of just the market humbling humbling me um I just think the next step is is what happens here because you know the 8we SMA is at 63,9 3 so we&#39;re slightly above it right six let&#39;s just call it 64k right approximately 64k that&#39;s where the 8we ese is we&#39;re slightly above it we just w above the 20we moving average if you look at 2013 what happened we got we Wicked to the 20we SME and above the 8 we but then we closed below it but then the following week we got above it right the week of July 22nd which would be next week we got above the 8we moving average that would be next week in 2019 very similar thing right got above the 8we SME with a wick all the way up weekly close above it and then we just kind of faded back down to a slightly lower low so again if you&#39;re looking to me to tell you what&#39;s going to happen you&#39;re at the wrong spot I&#39;ve told you guys before my strategy buy and sell according to the risk levels ignore everything else and you know it&#39;s interesting because if you look at a lot of these um a lot of the different things like the fear and GRE index we went to some pretty low levels not that long ago I mean now we&#39;re all the way back up to fear and grea 69 we just went all the way down to like 25 which is basically the lowest it had been um even lower than what we saw in 2023 it was lower than what we saw in 2023 it&#39;s kind of interesting um and if you look at at you know something like the uh the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator the spot that we just bounced off of was the same spot we bounced off of in 2023 you see that that was basically the same spot um so this has been really one really interesting move for Bitcoin and again I would always say hope for the best plan for the worst hope that Bitcoin gets back above its weekly 20we Ese and hopefully it holds to that support and we can get a rally into the end of the year if it doesn&#39;t happen make sure you have a plan to account for if it does go lower again how you could take advantage of something like that so that is all I would say about this whole move I do think this is a pretty intense battle with the 20we moving average this is where you know both sides are going to do the best they can to if you&#39;re a bull you&#39;re going to want to get us through the 20we obviously if you&#39;re a bear you&#39;re going to want to hold as resistance I will say I&#39;m just going to be over here respecting what happens and and going from there if it plays out like 2019 and it&#39;s just a wick above it and then then we just fade back down like this then I&#39;ll say all right it&#39;s 2019 it&#39;s just the same thing um if we can get back above the 20we ese like 2013 then it would then favor a a further rally right it&#39;s all very familiar it just depends on what your bias ISS you know the thing is is even the 2019 thing I mean back in March when we talked about this 2019 comparison which has mostly played out right I mean I&#39;m sure there&#39;s some out there that would say that it was not a valid comparison um but look I mean it&#39;s all but played out at this point all these highs and lower highs followed by a drop below the 20we moving average it all all played out the only other thing that happened in 2019 was just one more lower low which again I&#39;ve said before you should not expect it to play out in the exact same way it might it also might just be a different path because it&#39;s not 2019 and it&#39;s not 2013 so this has played out pretty closely but if you have a problem with the 2019 comparison I mean remember this is what happened the next year right so like let&#39;s suppose that we don&#39;t see it play out in 2013 let&#39;s suppose you don&#39;t get like this this rally right here that obviously everyone&#39;s wanting maybe it just gets delayed until the following year right you could have argued that something happen in 2019 like that right where you had this rally a lot of people were wanting a second rally right here to go to you know to much higher highs we didn&#39;t get it but guess what we got it the following year so you could you know you certainly could see something like that play out got that rally there and then that one what&#39;s actually another interesting thing to look at is is just looking at it in terms of uh monetary policy and if you look at it like this like if you look at interest rates with Bitcoin one of the one one thing I find really interesting is if you look at the pause right here see where Bitcoin or the FED paus rates Bitcoin basically did the same thing after the pause you see that what it did was it it initially sold off when the FED paused right you see that and then it had a fairly explosive rally right I mean it it&#39;s kind of interesting because it it it really is somewhat similar in the sense that you you get a Fed pause and then you get this explosive rally to the upside now back then obviously Bitcoin rallied until one month before the First Rate cut we&#39;re not at the First Rate cut yet and it doesn&#39;t look like we&#39;re getting a rate cut in July unless something major happens the next two weeks we&#39;re probably not going to get a rate cut in July but we could get one in September if you look at at the uh the September probabilities let me see this isn&#39;t even loading right now correctly but if you look at I believe if you looked at the September probabilities the the expectation is is likely for a a a rate cut right here you can see it about a 95% chance that they&#39;re going to cut to 25 basis points a 5% chance that they&#39;ll be all the way down at 5% by then so that is is is is is something that make some sense to look at because we know that monetary policy at least I feel like I know I could be wrong but I feel like I know that monetary policy plays a role I think one way to sort of visualize how monetary policy has played a role and and how it is sort of manifesting even if it doesn&#39;t seem like it is when you look at at something like Bitcoin dominance without stable coins and you look at at 2024 it&#39;s been tring up basically all year long right you see that been tring up but if you had looked at 2016 and 2020 before 2024 began you would have looked at this and said that oh it&#39;s a having year Bitcoin dominance is going to go down until the third quarter right wouldn&#39;t you have maybe made that assumption if you had looked at just this chart 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables you would have just assumed that dominance would probably just sell off until the third quarter and then get another rally back up but it wouldn&#39;t really go it wouldn&#39;t really ever be in a in an obvious uptrend right it might be go down for a while back up back down back up but you&#39;re not really seeing an obvious uptrend but because of monetary policy I said no this doesn&#39;t make that much sense I think dominance is going to go up in the having year and sure enough you can see a fairly obvious uptrend in dominance that is different than what we saw in the last two having years right I mean it&#39;s pretty clearly different that doesn&#39;t mean there can&#39;t be some form of a of another sort of selloff and dominance kind of around the spot ETF approval for ethereum um and I&#39;ve said that before sort of the weak point would be you know the next month or so if it&#39;s going to if it&#39;s going to come back down but you can see that all these other larger drops by dominance in having years that we saw about in in Prior having years we didn&#39;t see this having year right all the drops that we&#39;ve had still just led to a higher low whereas in Prior having Years A lot of them were leading to lower lows right these were lower lows going in um but this year it&#39;s been higher lows so because of monetary policy Bitcoin has continued to outperform the collective market right and so because of that I I think maybe it makes sense to Overlay Bitcoin with monetary policy like with interest rates and you can see that it actually I mean if you take a bar pattern from like right here to this low that was set and then just take it out sort of through the end of 2019 you&#39;ll see it it&#39;s kind of a very similar move right a very very similar move the only difference is that this time it&#39;s taken a little bit longer for it to play out which makes sense because the pause has been longer last cycle the pause was only half a year this cycle the pause it&#39;s already been a year right this July will be one year since the FED paused rates and all you really have to do is just kind of expand this over and see the similarities all you have to do is sort of expand that over and you can see you know how it how it lines up I think the main difference that could still play out is does Bitcoin rally into rate Cuts Like it did in 2019 right but there&#39;s this other thing that I I also have in the back of my mind and I remember from 2019 in June of 2019 the FED came out at the fomc and said look guys we&#39;re not going to cut rates until next year until 2020 and then in July July they cut rates and it was actually in July when Bitcoin rallied it was a two-e rally right we got a twoe rally and so I&#39;m wondering you know is the current rally right now that bitcoin&#39;s getting we&#39;ve it&#39;s gone on for a couple weeks now is it is it because the market is now convinced I mean legitimately the market says there&#39;s a 0% chance of a rate cut or of of no rate cut by September that&#39;s what the market says so a rate cut has been is getting fully priced in at this point you can see that right a rate cut is is getting fully priced in because the probability of them not cutting by September according to CME Group is 0% which is kind of scary to some degree because the implication is well what happens if you get a a hot inflation print between now and then and then you go from pricing in this rate cut to then having to price it back out that could it&#39;s kind of a game of chicken with the FED right the FED wants to cut rates but then the Market front runs it and then the the the the timing of the First Rate cut has just been getting pushed further and further and further out there&#39;s some people out there that say no rate Cuts until 2025 in fact if at the next meeting the FED came out and said no rate Cuts until 2025 that would be a k to what they did in 2019 at the June meeting where they came out and said no rate Cuts until 2025 and when they said that or until 2020 and when they said that it was the following month that all Bitcoin pairs broke down right and the Bitcoin dominance it&#39;s had its final surge so I look at it I&#39;m like well do you wait you know when when Bitcoin had this rally right there it was when the FED cut rates but the FED did not advertise that rate cut they in fact said we weren&#39;t going to have a rate cut now we&#39;re getting a rally I think because we&#39;re we&#39;re starting to stiff out those rate cuts and you really don&#39;t even need to look any further than just traditional markets I mean look at what the Russell 2000 just did did you guys see the Russell this past week look at this move right small caps are starting to sniff out some of these rate C in fact if you were to look at the Russell divided by the NASDAQ it&#39;s had a fairly explosive move now it&#39;s not the first time that it&#39;s had a move like this back above it 20we moving average right it did something similar back in January and in fact I mean you could argue right you could argue that if you connect these dots it kind of looks like it&#39;s rallied back up to the breakdown Point kind of like over here right you could see when it broke down right here it had this breakdown here and then it rallied back up to the breakdown Point same thing just happened you see the same thing how how the same thing just occurred and of course it it did go above the bullmark S end just like it did back over here so I know there&#39;s a lot of people thinking that this rotation to to small caps is durable and and look they could be right but I I still think that Bitcoin will reclaim more market share by the end of the year I really do I think Bitcoin dominance is poised to continue going higher because we know last cycle we didn&#39;t even see it top until two months after the First Rate cut and it also didn&#39;t top until QE began which didn&#39;t occur until September of 2019 that still hasn&#39;t happened yet so because of that I I feel compelled sort of my strongest conviction for the last several years has just been Bitcoin dominance is going to go higher no matter the direction of Bitcoin USD now of course there&#39;s a lot of people that think well it that means that Bitcoin can only go up or that means it can only go down no it&#39;s simple it&#39;s guys it doesn&#39;t matter what way Bitcoin goes dominance goes up either way so we&#39;re all investors here right I mean you wouldn&#39;t be here if you didn&#39;t like taking on some level of risk that&#39;s why I&#39;ve said Bitcoin gives you exposure to the upside but it also minimizes your downside risk now that might sound crazy to a lot of people but if you compare it to the altcoin market I would say that&#39;s true now if you compare it to the S&amp;P maybe it&#39;s not true right I mean certainly Bitcoin can get bigger draw it&#39;s gotten larger draw Downs than what you typically see happen with the S&amp;P 500 but it&#39;s still if you&#39;re if you&#39;re accepting the risk of crypto to begin with Bitcoin helps you mitigate that downside Risk by having that over say um a lot of different altcoins so I think where we are is is a very critical juncture right now uh in terms of what happens for the rest of the year and I&#39;m just trying to be upfront with you guys right now if we get back above the 20 week as and and hold it as support then it favors new all-time highs right that&#39;s just the reality if it gets rejected and we start to come back down below the 21 we EMA this it favors a lower low right again that&#39;s just the reality you could be on either either side of that and not like either of those outcomes but the secret to investing be prepared for both right don&#39;t worry so much about it just be prepared for both right it means having you know for me it means having a Bitcoin position but also look if it continues to drop like 2019 getting uh getting some more so we&#39;ll see what happens here at the 20we moving average um you know whether it it actually comes back down I think like one of the differences between 2019 and 2013 is 2013 like it it wasn&#39;t really setting lower lows and higher and lower highs it was setting sort of like a higher it was it more looked like this right it looked more like that maybe you could argue it was in that channel if you ignore the April this April Wick perhaps you could argue that um but yeah I mean these are I think these are really really interesting times um for Bitcoin and and if it if we do get another rally like if Bitcoin breaks Above This channel here right so I guess the two the two different options here so one path would be sort of coming back down um and then doing something like this another path would be you go up get above it come back down hold it as support right around that September time frame that would be another path so this this path up here is more so the 2013 path this path would be more like the 2019 path where it&#39;s like a slightly lower low a couple months later one interesting thing about this is that I do think there will be a lot of volatility either way and if you look at like all Bitcoin pairs what you&#39;ll notice here is that every couple of months we&#39;ve been putting in a lower low right so here you had one in February and then a lower low in April and then a lower low in June so the next one would be due for August the reason why August is interesting is because last cycle all Bitcoin pairs durably broke down in June one month before the First Rate cut now the First Rate cut back then was July that&#39;s when all Bitcoin pairs broke down was in June one month before and so if you look at it here you could argue well if if if altcoins are are destined to set another lower low two months after this low in August that would be one month before when the market at least thinks the next rate cut is going to be in September so it it seems like I mean it seems like it&#39;s playing out in a similar fashion with monetary policy but it also seems kind of similar to to post having year returns and I go back and forth but look guys I I think I&#39;m at the point where I don&#39;t I don&#39;t really care that much I mean it whatever happens happens um if if we get a here&#39;s the thing about Bitcoin right if you get a draw down like a larger pullback you&#39;re still well you you still made a lot of money right I mean you know if you&#39;ve just been sticking with Bitcoin throughout this entire phase you&#39;ve still done really really well even if it gets a pullback if you stuck with altcoins I mean I&#39;m not saying you&#39;re necessarily hurting depending on which altcoin you got but some of those alts haven&#39;t really done that well right so it kind of It kind of more so depends on which altcoin you got whereas with Bitcoin it was just more obvious right with Bitcoin you you just knew more or less that Bitcoin would do pretty well if if if crypto does well it&#39;s cuz bitcoin&#39;s doing well not the other way around whereas with the altcoin market you had to be able to pick the one that would outperform and and most of them did not even though some of them did most of them did not so that I I I think is a is a is an interesting comparison so let&#39;s see if it&#39;s if it&#39;s more like 2013 where you you take out these highs um you know here the next month or two and then you get a Q4 rally like 2013 2017 and 2021 or if it ends up playing out like 2019 my guess is that regardless if it&#39;s rejected if it&#39;s rejected then guess what Bitcoin dominance goes up if it if it breaks new highs Bitcoin dominance goes up one other thing before I forget is to look at at all Bitcoin pairs it is actually kind of similar to what we saw um earlier so if we if we just overlay really really quickly um Bitcoin USD onto this chart so you see how all Bitcoin pairs have been playing out here look at this you see this low that occurred on a Bitcoin dump okay so here you had this low on a Bitcoin dump and then you had this low on this Bitcoin dump so like basically Bitcoin is putting in these lower highs and if you compare what was going on into those lower highs right all Bitcoin pairs were capitulating right there and right there they were capitulating into those lows as Bitcoin was dumping and then in April all Bitcoin pairs had this rally back up where you kind of had sort of three tops over here and then those tops occurred as Bitcoin was going back up you see that so after the low was set after the local low was set all Bitcoin pairs started to go back up right they started to go back up and and and and as or at least not after not necessarily after the first local low but they we saw all Bitcoin pairs sell off during a Bitcoin dump as Bitcoin started to get a rally back up to the top of the channel right as that happened all Bitcoin pairs were back up here right sort of setting this distribution phase right you see all Bitcoin pairs were sort of Distributing back right here as Bitcoin was just churning through this level and then Bitcoin came back up reached kind of this hot this upward Channel up here all Bitcoin pairs had fallen off and then just Consolidated for a little bit and then they sold off again as Bitcoin came back down right so if Bitcoin were to if it were to play out like what happened last time right if you argue if you argue that like this move right here is similar to this one then draw the line right draw the line right here here right here basically all Bitcoin payers had this distribution they then sold off Consolidated for a few weeks while Bitcoin even went higher back up to the top of the channel and then they sold off again so you could argue that all Bitcoin pairs are repeating you know either one of these things where they&#39;re in this sort of this distribution Zone um and and Bitcoin slowly reclaiming Market share again I know it&#39;s not a popular Theory guys but I mean all Bitcoin pairs just keep on they just keep on putting in lower lows right you see that or sorry lower highs and lower lows now of course they&#39;ll turn around at some point but I I don&#39;t know if they&#39;ve turned around just yet I I actually think they haven&#39;t so it looks kind of similar right these these tops that all Bitcoin pairs go through and they just sort of distribute out during these ranges the bitcoin&#39;s in and then they then just collapse to a new low and you&#39;ve seen it happen now several times right several times so that&#39;s where we are with the market let&#39;s see what Bitcoin has in store if it can get back above its 20we moving average or not we should know here within the next couple of weeks thank you guys for tuning in subscribe give the video thumbs up and again check out the sale on into the crypto premium at intothe crypt.of

Transcript for:Bitcoin Battle for the Bull Market Support Band

Transcript for:
Bitcoin Battle for the Bull Market Support Band