Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 Convective Outlook (May 16, 2025)

Overview

• Date and Time: May 16, 2025, 1630 UTC
• Forecast Areas:
  • Moderate Risk: Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys
  • Enhanced Risk: Includes cities like Indianapolis, Columbus, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville
  • Slight Risk: Extends to Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, Fort Worth, Baltimore
  • Marginal Risk: Includes New York, Detroit, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Newark

Key Forecast Details

• Severe Thunderstorms: Expected across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys
  • Features intense supercells
  • Potential for strong, long-track tornadoes
  • Very large hail anticipated
• Damaging Winds: Potential for winds in excess of 75 mph

Specific Regional Forecasts

• Mid MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic

  • An occluded cyclone (984 mb) moving toward the Great Lakes
  • Cold front progression across MO/IL/IN/MI
  • Thunderstorm clusters along moisture/buoyancy gradient
  • MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg
  • Supercells and bowing segments possible

• Western MO to IN

  • Rapid destabilization across southern MO
  • Supercell development expected from south central to east central MO
  • Potential for very large hail (>3 inches), strong tornadoes
  • Upscale growth into clusters/line segments likely

• Northern IL to Lower MI

  • Embedded speed max moving east-northeastward
  • Moistening/destabilization modulated by storm formation coverage

• AR to southeast OK and northeast/central TX

  • Scattered thunderstorms expected despite cloud cover
  • MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg
  • Supercells capable of very large hail (3-4 inches)
  • Tornado threat less certain due to weak low-level shear

Additional Information

• Product Note: Next Day 1 Outlook scheduled by 2000Z
• Current UTC Time: 1638Z

Resources

• Print Version
• Day 1 KML
• Day 1 Shapefile
• Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

This forecast highlights significant weather events expected across multiple regions, emphasizing the need for awareness and preparedness against severe weather patterns.