if you follow the markets on a daily basis like I do you're probably seeing some of the Perma Bears continue to double down on their major collapse scenarios and this is a collapse for stocks collapse for the stock markets collapse for Bitcoin collapse for some altcoins as well and even the real estate market many of these Perma Bears continue to double down on their calls over the last two years as they need the market now to go down in order to recover any of those losses or just prevent their ego getting destroyed even further you may have seen some recent stuff of other Traders out there talking about 70% Corrections on particular stocks and markets that have to go down in the next 6 to n months but the data isn't saying that I want to show you the data today and for you to go and make your own mind up because you found your home of macrocycle analysis studying the past to forecast of future we're looking at Bitcoin cryptos the stock markets and the real estate cycle today hit that like button thanks again for joining me on the channel and of course subscribe if you are new here to the channel guys this is a fantastic quote plaster it on your walls we've got heaps of data to get through stock markets Bitcoin and ALT coins as well I want to see how they're progressing after that capitulation that significant crash that we saw just last week the stock market is never obvious it is designed to fool most of the people most of the time i' would say it's not necessarily uh never obvious sometimes it's obvious when the trend is up just go with the trend make life easy for yourself learn a trading system and go with the trend the markets have been up so why the hell fight it and talk about trying to Short the market I think that is's a massive ego thing on the part of Traders and analysts uh media any sort of person that follows the markets they're just trying to say that they called some sort of top even if they are so freaking early maybe they're a year early if you've got any sort of Leverage There is almost no chance you'd be able to hold that position and be that early in the market as um I'll quote in I don't know third person you could be right on your theory but wrong with your timing that does not make you 50% right that makes you 100% wrong that just means you're not going to make money you you will lose all your money trying to do that and unless they're actually trading the market uh then well if they are trading the market then they're going to lose but if they're not trading the market they're just talking about it then it doesn't matter they can just keep talking that the Market's going to fall but they don't have any money in it and they're getting paid to say that the Market's going to correct so let's get on with the data first piece from Tom Tom mlen who is the inventor of the mlen oscillator as you can see from his name here o the oscillator we've used that fair bit it tends to work out pretty well doesn't mean that I agree with everything that Tom's putting up on his X account but an interesting one here stocks making new lows is one of the steps on its way to delisting the numers numbers of NASDAQ issues so basically the number of stocks that are in the NASDAQ um have been going down essentially it's been declining but the comp so basically the NASDAQ Composite keeps Rising so we all know or we should have heard of that by now that the stock markets are going to new all-time highs almost every other day there's been a slight correction over the last week or so week or two but you've got new alltime highs uh new new alltime highs and new alltime high daily closes for Apple Microsoft couple of others there on the tech stock we can get to that later but they're the ones that come to mind as I looked at them just earlier we saw this dynamic in the late 1990s it took a while but did matter okay so just come back to this you could be right on your theory but wrong with your timing yeah it took a freaking while for sure three years essentially of these declines here two and a half give him that and then you started to see the market actually fall from the uh the tops there so you could count that from here and say well we're into that 2 and a half year period right now is this it possibly like maybe I'm wrong maybe maybe I'm wrong but the charts and the markets essentially say don't bet against them I mean if you've got a line that basically goes straight up and to the right how many times you actually going to be wrong in a 30 or 40e period not very often uh if you just keep on the the side of the market now that doesn't mean I'm a perable forever there are going to be times in the cycle where it's probably best to not be dumping a ton of money into them but there are definitely fantastic times to be getting into the market and putting more money in than usual so you want to be pyramiding in the right way not in the wrong way so pyramiding putting money into the market you want to buy more put more money when the market is down as opposed to more money when the market is up the psychology around all that is that most people do it the opposite way because they're unsure and they put a little bit of money and then they put more money and then they put heaps more money and it typically looks like that they'll put a little bit here they'll put more here and then they'll start dumping an absolute ton all their wealth in it at the top and then it corrects and basically any of the profits they made from here they lose all of it so that happens almost every single cycle and that's another part of how these markets continue to well they collapse further and further you get that snowball effect of people having to sell because they need to go and pay back certain uh loans that they got out or they need that money to go and live because conditions have the economic conditions have deteriorated so badly that they now need to make assets liquid and that's basically what happens on each of these major declines in the market now it hasn't happened for quite some time um very severely like we've seen from the GFC and you know if you are a regular viewer you know the idea of the 18.6 year cycle we're in this winter curse phase and over this decade or the 2020s right later this decade I suspect we're going to get something like that that basically resets the market now with that in mind and what I've been talking about with markets going up and to the right there's more chance of me being wrong wrong on a collapse than right because of how many times or how many years the markets go up compared to the years that they go down just think about that for a minute I am I I do think we're going to get some significant correction in the coming years not in 2024 I've said that many many times probably not in 2025 when I say significant correction I mean like literally taking out some of the significant lows the the numbers that people look for uh down at these bottoms here say for the the NASDAQ we're looking at least down to 14,000 because most people look at uh percentage Corrections right you want to you want to see it go over 20% correction a 30% correction from the current price would take us down to that that low at 14 and you've even got analysts calling for a 50% correction from this price that would take it out past 10 a half thousand which was the 2022 low in October right I can't see that happening in 2024 I don't want to bet against the trend because the trend is your until the end or until the bidder end and I don't think there's a Bitter End just yet we still got a fair bit of time especially from the data that we're seeing using mate here Tom's analysis as well even if there are more nasdaq's um trading lower making new lows there is still more time that this could go on until you see a peak I'm not trying to replicate this exact 2 and a half year period and say exactly from right there two and a half years later it's going to correct exactly the same because that doesn't happen but you are seeing signs that we're leading into some sort of peak trying to time it exactly like last time probably not a great idea so we look at the probabilities and look for a time frame and then add on other signals to let us know around a period that it could be correcting but we've got to watch the signals at that time as well so winners curse plenty more upside before we get too early into the trade itself into the The Big Short the big correction the big I don't know crash uh buying in alltime high territory as long as it's at least 6 months you have a time frame a Time Horizon of 6 months or more uh typically has shown to be net positive so invest on any day so just basically buy any day of the year these are your returns in the gray bars or invest at a new high so basically a breakout many people try to short alltime highs don't try and short alltime highs you'll get wrecked you'll get wrecked like the professional Traders out there on YouTube that have been talking about shorting Nvidia quite often they short Bitcoin from 30 grand to Grand they short Apple they short everything that's going to new alltime highs they have zero clue because the data says do not do that uh of course you need to stick to your own plans and do what you you think is right but even just being any sort of dummy all you have to do invest at a new high of course have your stops have your risk management in play and invested in new high the data shows over the last 35 years 36 years that you're going to be better off doing that as long as your time Horizon is 6 months or more uh and you're going to beat anyone just investing on any day so you do it without what you will I think the main thing to take from this is don't try and short new alltime highs there will be some sort of Mega crash that comes up eventually but that always happens it's just about not being too early for it and then missing out on the ride to the upside so I think this is what happens first and not only do I think it it's actually it's actually happening we broke out a new alltime highs again in late 2023 in December and it's basically been up ever since could you imagine trying to short that market as it breaks out on your all-time highs and you're basically underwater There is almost no one that can continue to hold that that trade all the way up the S&P 500 same sort of thing the breakout there in December of 2023 it's been going straight up from that point all right we've got a few other bits of data here on paay for a record low percentage of stocks beating S&P 500 uh I see this is bullish boom time so there is a talk about the breadth we've covered it many times on the channel subscribe like you guys know the deal essentially this is just talking about there's few stocks pushing the index up and a lot of stocks that aren't making new highs so um basically they're either going to new lows or they're just not making new highs as well you can see it's set a record price here but when you can just look back at a few of the other data points if you even just wanted to use this one piece 1998 1999 there is 2,000 now you've got a lot of stocks making new highs and I think we all know hopefully from 2000 that was basically the.com bubble on there and then obviously the NASDAQ was much bigger because the tech stocks being com bubble boom and the bus there uh leading into that that Peak you've got very few stocks taking the lead and then everything else tries to catch up that is exactly what the laggards do the laggards will lag until the end and then they all start to catch up together and so meanwhile the smart money has been buying and making the gains on the way up for the last several years and then retail comes in at the peak they start to buy up all these other stocks push to new fresh highs and then eventually it collapses pretty soon after that so again I think going to be a major crash but I think this actually happens first more to me at least more of the information points towards that than the alternative being that we're going to crash in 2024 or crash crash in 2025 it looks like we're basically winding up again to get to this point here of some big booms to the upside now I don't just take that one piece and you can find examples of uh how you can see more of the stocks reaching highs from the lower points you can see this bar here in particular you've got there which is 2009 that was the low of the stock market and then you have it winding up here towards the end so that's 2007 you can see it had the lowest number of stocks beating the uh the index itself and then you had more of the stocks beating it from the low so that's why I don't just take this one piece and apply it to everything I want to layer the pieces of data that I'm I'm sharing with you in today's video so on top of that uh Seth is also looking here is this cycle about to reset so this one looks at the laggards versus the leaders your S&P 500 is the leader Russell 2000 is the laggards and just a little bit of a pattern here that he's shown you've got 2011 basically the the S&P beat the Russell by 6% the Russell was down 4% the S&P was up 2% so it essentially Beat It by 6% and that's what they've done here so the next two years the Russell was down down and 2013 was down and then the S&P um oh sorry the Russell beat the S&P in the following two years and then the S&P outperforms the Russell for the next two years the Russell outperforms the following year then the S&P has a threeyear streak and then a correction now it's on a fouryear streak so maybe we're getting into that time for 2025 or maybe even 2026 where you get the laggards catching up which is showing on this data as well is showing here as well where you'll see more uh higher prices essentially looking at the time to invest you know at a new alltime high and you you'll get a longer move to the upside there um that the laggards could catch up and that basically brings you into the end of yet another cycle on to more on the S&P year- to-day performance in US elections okay check this out best ever us election year since 1950 when the S&P SPX has gained between 13 and 177% in the first half which it has this is the black line here uh it's always been positive in the second half worst second half return was 3% 1976 so going back nearly 50 Years or or roughly an S S&P 500 being 5 5,675 by the end of the year from this current price right so that's a year-to DAT performance in US elections it's on track to be one of the best of all time uh I don't want to it up too much because I mean I'll just let the data I'll let the charts I'll let the market do more of the talking than what I do and I know I do talk a fair bit so in that sense let's um let's move on it's showing pretty positive signs for the second half of the Year always 100% the whole year is going to be closed out positive right fear and GD index has been reset or in the process of resetting this is for the stock market it had its low here in fear in April that was your correction going back on this one red monthly bar or candle depending on how you love to look at the markets there are your candles and now it's basically on that the reset grind here move up higher low beautiful and the fear coming out of the market moving back into a neutral State and potentially into the greed so the markets are they're overboard U too many participants it seems like it should crash it should correct and all this sort of stuff it just put in a new alltime High daily close so with I mean I'm a I'm a record on repeat here day after day new alltime high daily closes and the same thing the the media these professional Traders these people who say they put out their their results keep trying to short markets on the way up I don't know where they're getting their money from it's definitely not mine I'm probably not theirs and maybe it's other people's money I have no idea but trying to short markets to keep going up you got to be getting your money from somewhere uh it just seems like losses after losses taking a look at the the stocks themselves Apple new alltime high daily close and it just pipped out a new all-time high price as well by about 18 cents so it did reach a new all-time high Amazon new alltime High new alltime high price and Microsoft so there were the three uh Nvidia 122 so it's holding up here 50% level to the downside about 108 and back to that previous accumulation Zone about $96 is the top there so pretty pretty well still on a Mega Run here and according to the data I've looked at there I don't think we're going to come to an end any time soon but eventually when it does you know we'll be here to cover it onto cryptocurrencies fear and greed index again AL also again also resetting for crypto at 50 pretty decent after going on a finally a street to to refresh the market sentiment we got 30 on the index on the 25th and 30 on on the 29th so a couple of good readings there to at least start that uh Market sentiment refresh I definitely like seeing that now if Bitcoin was to correct from here and take out those lows as I discussed in yesterday's video looking at specific price targets to the downside I've mentioned heaps of times I prefer zones of lows and like to get in and then zones above to get out I'm not trying to pick an exact low maybe this isn't the exact price low maybe it goes a little further I don't know it's the you know the crystal ball is needed for this side of the chart you need a crystal ball for the right hand side of the chart um but the the big one here is that the Market's sentiment reset if it is to put a lower price in and then put in a higher uh Market sentiment reading basically the fear and greed index then you're starting to get a Divergence on what the market is actually feeling and potentially uh going to do as opposed to the price chart itself where you'll see it and it might go a little lower maybe it goes to 56 or 53 but people aren't as fearful anymore of that lower price that would be an absolute Banger entry when you look at what happened at the low so this thing happened uh 18 19 months ago at the low so you've got the November collapse FTX collapse and then it went slightly lower in price you had the June low which was the extreme fear and you can see went lower but on the crypto and greed index here is your June lows and then in November here are your higher lows so higher lows for the market sentiment people were less scared of the market going down by that point and it takes some time to understand how it's going to play out on the chart but if you can decipher this you're in for major major games because you can start to see a low form now I think if that happens again and we see you know the coming couple of months as we've been looking at 4 to 6 months underneath the old alltime high you see me talk about this heaps of times before after the trigger in March that time frame is coming up in July through to September so give or take but it's in this period now and should we see that price do that then start to push away um I suspect that we're on to the early start of that Trend so it's all looking relatively good also seeing the Google Trends term the words here dying off so interest in searching for Bitcoin dying off you want to see that at these lower points it's definitely a stealth move or at least what I call a stealth move uh the Public's not interested retail's not interested people aren't asking their fund managers or the ETFs or whoever that they want to invest for them they're not searching about it and looking for it which means those companies aren't looking for it either they just have the products ready for when the interest picks up and you can see the interest at the moment has died off to a new equal or fresh low so yeah at the moment it's a new new low 18 on the reading here for the LA for this current week and the lowest point we had previously was 19 we have to go all the way back to uh the breakout in October of 2023 so this was before everyone started to come back to the market you can see that point right there that was the lowest interest in Google terms we are now at an equal lower lowest interest at a way higher price basically 100% higher in price and the same sort of Interest has been is dying out to that point so it's similar to what happened in the previous cycle the interest died out 2020s and then Market rips rips them a new one from there they all come in late again they missed the stealth move and they missed the higher lows on the stocks on the cryptos and they get in late so it's not a bad thing to be buying at Fresh highs there's nothing wrong with that but it's just holding the damn thing for way too long especially with volatile uh assets cryptocurrencies um because essentially they can correct pretty damn hard now some that haven't corrected so hard let's have a look at some some cryptos here salana putting in the upside you can see one day the two bar uh chart here it has crossed the 150 now we need a couple of daily closes here the 50% level is 149 so I called it a nice round number of 150 good signs from yesterday maybe it's all off the back of the ETF speculation that there's going to be an ETF approved for salana maybe not who knows the chart is up and this so far has been yet another higher low form at $122 so I talked about this all the way back in April you've seen my tweet on April 19th looking like the market was putting in higher lows uh give me spare me a few cents there between the 119 low and the 11889 low so spare me a few cents and essentially you've got a double bottom that pushed off and now we've got a slightly higher low here again at 122 so that has been a pretty reasonable um chart pattern there especially with the higher lows and now trying to uh push higher above the 50% at 137 next Target to the weekly chart is 165 so it's right above uh this red line through the middle and then we go towards 190 210 so 190 is above these tops then 210 is obviously the the current top for salana so it's on its way it hasn't got those longer term time frames confirmed yet and those longer terms the weeklys we're only at the daily point for soul uh but you definitely like to see that compared to other charts which are basically still heading down and I haven't picked on xrp for a while so just have a quick look here I mean it's putting in slightly high lows in April but it really isn't um moving away fast but anyway maybe maybe this is the time for the xrp holders where they finally are able to make um you know 10% in a year so onto render this one here still holding up there is still possibility ofing in this Gap back here roughly 5 to6 or $7 so call it around5 to7 and it would still be within a healthy correction for an altcoin now I've got the uh average two range up here as this has been part of the stealth plan basically the ranges of the bars squeezing getting very small because the interest is dying off and we can see it there there it is Google Search terms uh Bitcoin dying off which would mean generally speaking rest of the cryptocurrencies are also dying off and render has done just that Bitcoin has done just that so we're into those stealth stealth all right there we are and these were the price targets that I had on yesterday's video so take a screenshot of that and we'll have a look at that in the in the coming videos this week you can see the the dying off here of the average true range of the bar previous cycles look what happened average two range picks up dies off dies off dies off then you start to get a higher low form and by that stage you're really a decent way from the stealth Zone all right so keep that in mind once we get to that point of the bars increasing in range it could potentially be well I mean the last cycle was over 100% going from 9,000 to 18 19,000 but that is another sign that you probably got further to go in the move now also on the channel looked at 30k C candles or bars that's for the month and I I can see there being monthly bars over $30,000 just based on what we've seen in the past these got up to 20 to 26,000 for the month uh we've seen a couple of those or one of those already and in each of the Cycles you see sort of three to maybe four or five times what the Bars were early on as it starts to to creep higher so we've had those candles down I think as we go higher this is going to break to new highs I I can't imagine many people would disagree with that so I guess it's not the biggest forecast out there you would expect the candles and bars to get bigger what I'm trying to do here is uh use the the chart to identify when that time is about to happen because when you start to see those things you don't have long left and you probably want to start executing your exit strategy you're not trying to get the top remember you're not trying to sell the Top If you don't have any other way to get out of the market and all you're looking at are the ranges of the bars perhaps and you can see the craziness coming into the market maybe you want to start executing some of those cells don't just dump it all on the first time it does it because there's more that it could happen you know the next month could go another 30 or 40 Grand in that month U but there's not much time left when you consider the entire cycle you know the top here was April to October November six six or so months but the entire move from the low to the top uh about three years so six months sounds like a long time but when you again look at the entire cycle not that long so Rena still in a healthy position and it still has further that it could go down and still remain in a healthy position time frames however let's have a quick squee at this uh this goes for any other altcoin or any other degenerate crap that you're looking at 16 weeks from the top to our current week that we are in last time it did 16 weeks there's a top it was just coming out of the bottom here now I'm not saying that this has to be the bottom it's nice that it's bounced off the 50% it's it's agreeing with the 50% right now but I've talked about the level between five and $7 a couple of times let's just have a look forward when did it break out so from that 16th week how many weeks did it take until it broke out the of the consolidation at the lows and then out of that previous top so there's your first real significant break are around 6 to 7 weeks from this current point and then to that breakout of those highs 10 weeks so 10 weeks from now is about around 26 weeks that would take us out to September and that is in the realm what I'm looking at with the median time frame underneath the old old time height now this is specifically specifically for Bitcoin so even if this lags a little bit and takes off a few weeks later which would take it into October November maybe after the election uh I would still consider that a pretty significant win and it's advising us it's um giving us a few signals if we see higher lows start to form there that you're probably going to see higher prices on this and it's just lagging Bitcoin by a small period of time when you consider where it currently sits in the entire move remember that would be roughly about six months and it's giving you a warning coming into it now what do we need to see until it gets there obviously higher lows and that would happen throughout this next couple of months maybe even up to four months as we get to that election I just from what I've seen over previous years leading into the election there's obviously some volatility in markets if there's indecision and uncertainty maybe they start to die off at that point so you know I'm keeping that aside just in case but if I keep seeing higher lows it's not going to stop me from getting into the market as it breaks out through that if it breaks out through that period so we've gone on pretty damn long um Casper just as a quick recap here you've got 10 weeks to the low 10 weeks to the low we just put another top and looks like it was a false break breaking up to nearly 20 cents so 10 weeks also takes us out to September maybe we start to see it climb out of that point leading into that election or maybe it's um you know continues to consolidate around this 50% down to about 9 cents up to 20ish cents then we just got to see if it remains in the strong position and if it's able to break out with the rest of the altcoin market sometime quarter 4 maybe into quarter one of 2025 heaps that I've covered in today's video thanks for following subscribe like links in the video description for our free crypto and economic report that came out last night or if you want the free ultimate Trader accelerator link to that will be in the pinned comment down below see you guys at the next video until then take care and peace out