Lecture Notes: Key Risks and Geopolitical Insights for 2025

Introduction

• Date: January 6, 2025
• Context: First week back in the office, snowing in New York
• Global Landscape: Ongoing wars, technological uncertainty, shifting political dynamics
• Key Event: Justin Trudeau resigns as Canada's Prime Minister

Guest Introduction

• Speaker: Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
• Topic: Annual list of top risks for 2025

Top Risks of 2025

1. G0 Wins

• Definition: Global leadership vacuum
• Key Points:
  • U.S. is the most powerful but not leading in collective security, free trade, democracy
  • Shift to a more transactional, power-centered approach
  • Global challenges exist without cohesive leadership
  • GZERO world disorder influences geopolitical risks globally

2. United States Under Trump

• Trump's Return: More organized, consolidated power, unpredictable
• Domestic Influence:
  • Politicization of U.S. institutions like FBI, DOJ, IRS
  • Executive dominance over checks and balances
• International Influence:
  • Unpredictability affects global diplomacy
  • Challenges with allies, e.g., UK crisis related to Trump's advisor Elon Musk
• Democracy Resilience:
  • Institutions like judiciary, military remain independent
  • Federal system and state autonomy serve as checks

3. Trumponomics

• Economic Impact:
  • Tariffs as a primary policy tool
  • Potential deterioration of U.S.-China relations
  • Focus on reducing illegal immigration affecting labor market
  • Regulatory rollbacks and tax continuation
• Market Reactions: Uncertain due to Trump's policies and economic environment

4. U.S.-Mexico Relations

• Challenges:
  • Illegal immigration, fentanyl crisis, trade deficits
  • Complex dynamics with new Mexican leadership (Claudia Scheinbaum)
• Strategic Advice: Engage with Trump administration, adjust economic policies

5. Russia and Ukraine

• Ceasefire Prospects:
  • Trump seeking ceasefire, influencing U.S. support and sanctions
  • Risks of escalation before ceasefire
• Post-Ceasefire:
  • Continued arms buildup, sanctions on Russia remain
  • Ongoing proxy conflicts

6. Iran and Middle East Dynamics

• Current State: Iran weaker post-revolution
• U.S. Policy:
  • Potential increased pressure from Trump
  • Risk of confrontation vs. potential for deal-making

7. Artificial Intelligence Regulation

• Current Status: Regulation lagging behind technological advancement
• Risks: Open-source AI misuse, lack of adequate regulatory environment

Positive Outlooks

• Technological Advancements:
  • AI and sustainable energy technologies progressing
  • Potential for post-carbon energy transition
• Geopolitical Stability:
  • Trump's potential for stabilizing wins
  • Europe strengthening politically and in security coordination

Conclusion

• Ian Bremmer's insights emphasize the complex risks and geopolitical dynamics of 2025
• Available resources: Full risks report at eurasiagroup.net

These notes capture the essence of the risks discussed, Ian Bremmer's perspectives, and potential bright spots in the geopolitical landscape.