Transcript for:
Understanding the Market Efficiency Paradigm

okay folks we are in the second teaching of the series of eight for the month of september 2016. and you've seen this before but i just want to bring this up to you one more time this is the market efficiency paradigm and what this generally is depicting or what i was trying to communicate by drawing it out is we as new traders are collectively part of this larger hole over here of uninformed money and whether we acknowledge it or whether we believe it or what we will invariably come in contact with the understanding that there is a smart money group of traders out there and when i first got involved in trading i didn't know anything about smart money i just knew that the markets were potentially there and i could be profitable and in fact i was going to be profitable i knew it i couldn't believe that i ever lose money until i lost it so when we as traders look at the marketplace as new investors new traders new speculators we may or may not have the understanding that there is a smart money entity out there and we as the larger populace of retail-minded trading we think because of our sheer vastness okay we are the driver okay of this apparatus that's called the marketplace and we tend to think of ourselves as the drive axle of what makes the markets go up and down which is the face that's the facade of supply and demand that's the facade of trend lines driving price when it touches it that's the facade of moving average crossovers causing prices go up or down that's the facade that's perpetuated and we are led to believe that that's exactly what takes place either in books or in seminars or in webinars or gurus people and i've done this when i was younger too i i was convinced that indicators drew price up and down and i i packed houses on america online when i got on a chat room and people were in there flocking to here the things that i would discuss about stochastic and rsi and williamsperson r and i was talking about three momentum indicators when if you're just going to follow momentum just follow one so if anyone knows more about being in this group over here trust me it's me i've been i've been in this group enough to know that i learned more about this group over here that doesn't like to draw too much attention to itself but contrast that with everybody in the retail we all have twitter accounts we all have my effects books that we're sharing we're all trying to be on instagram showing lamborghinis and whatever else houses cars boats yachts girlfriends they ain't even yours everybody is living large over here in the uninformed money and smart money is up here quietly just doing their thing who's inside this small circle over here the banks who's in here everybody on social media everybody in a retail account at all the gurus and teachers out there that have things that they're selling services and yes i have a new service but what i'm teaching you ain't available anywhere else see this group this large populace of people they think and i was part of this group initially they think that the sheer vastness of the size of them is much more controlling in terms of where price is going to be driven higher or lower because of the buying and selling pressure that's equated to their mere involvement in price and that's a facade this huge populace of trading people or traders community in the retail realm is really not that big but we are led to believe that we are huge and we are given this this idea of ourselves that we're giants we push price around and we don't we don't in fact it's this small little group of traders okay they're the ones that influence this entire mechanism that we call the markets this small little group of traders is actually the drive shaft and if this was a belt like on a car okay like an alternator this is the actual motor spinning the whole price higher lower it's not this big circle of people so it has to be a paradigm shift see if you're over here thinking that it's the group of traders that is online talking among stem cells as a whole they are the ones that make price go up and down because of their buying and selling interest because the supply and demand factors around them that's what pushes price around that's a facade and i'm here to tell you that you need to put that to bed now because i'm going to level everything you've ever imagined about the marketplace and how it really works you have no idea where we're going and you need to leave this realm in this circle of people and their thought processes and transition and have a paradigm shift in your thought process about how the markets are efficient because they're not efficient for the speculators they're efficient for the smart money the banks drive price whether you want to accept it or not that's what's going on and the sooner you get to that understanding and expectation of what it is that's going on in price it's not for your well-being it's for the bank's well-being it's their business they have a liquidity provider everyone else is liquidity are you a lamb or a lion which one because one of us is going to eat meat and the other one's going to stand there looking stupid eating grass i don't want to be a part of this herd i didn't want to be a part of it once i understood where i was i wanted to get out of there and i'm going to live over here in a small little area and for years i quietly made money doing nothing but focusing on the things i knew that this small group of entity of traders did and i looked at these individuals initially with disdain thinking i'm gonna come after you i'm gonna i'm gonna devour you i'm gonna do the same thing and then as i looked at it more and more and heard stories about people and their lives losing their homes marriages it tugboat me and i didn't want to just be over here being like the banks and then i bridged over into what you saw me do in 2010 and i revealed a lot of things in this mentorship you're going to learn a whole lot but it's not meant for you to share it on your youtube channel it's not meant for you to share it on your blog it's not meant for you to pass it around on twitter instagram make torrents it's not supposed to be there it's only supposed to be between you and i you're welcome to share this with your this information with your children and your family members start a legacy but don't make this common knowledge it's gonna happen some goobers gonna take this stuff and be the one that you know i'm the cool guy i'm the one that got in there and made it all accessible to everyone else and she could feel the hit like the hero that you're not really doing yourself a favor let this stuff stay well hidden you're paying for it appreciate it for what it is and don't share it it's not going mainstream you're this is the group that we have whoever can make it in between october 1st and now that's it that's it because when we leave september in october we're buttoning up all of the free tutorial stuff and we're going right into the nuts and bolts of where we got to go to to get to the latter months see when we come into the marketplace we don't understand this we think that this group that we're part of we are the the the market we are the market we're the traders we push price up and down but if you're honest with yourself if you've traded at any time and you look back on your trading you probably looked at the market you saw something like this you knew something was going on and you just you just couldn't put it together you you see these vague things that take place in the marketplace your stop gets run it looked exactly like it was going to go up but it came all the way down knocked you out and then went up you see these things happening to you you just can't figure it out you know there's something to it you you've had the sensation that you know yes this is rigged my brokers have to get me it's not really your broker it's the interbank feed that drives price against the funds and the brokers are going to expand the spread as well on you and knock you out when you look at the price action as a new trader and you didn't have this exposure to understanding how the markets are being driven and manipulated to the degree of every single minute detail they're absolutely controlled it's an ai it's artificially intelligence it's you are not trading against a person anymore it's a computer program that delivers price and it knows human behavior because it's the same way it's been always fear and greed so when you look at price and you've been trading for a while and you had this fuzzy picture about something going on behind the scenes but never really understanding what it was until you met me and suddenly there's clarity suddenly you understand that there's something that's been there all along now you can identify it and what's more important is you understand how to track it and do the same thing it does and by default you become a resident of that small circle because this small circle is the drive shaft it which makes the markets go around it's not the big populous of traders it's the liquidity provider so you need to be thinking like this small group is over here they're not trying to draw attention to themselves they're not trying to be online flashing this and flashing that they're just quietly in here skinning people alive and you've been there before and just just as well as i have you either stay in this business long enough to lead this group and come over here or sit back in the middle here you get real close to being there and you get bounced back to this group get real close to uh you know getting over here and you start developing a little bit more and you play tug of war some of you in my group right now in this mentorship you're in this little area right here where you can see there's some signals and signs of a real entity of smart money in play but you're not fully convinced to leave this group yet you have too many convictions about your tools your indicators your your pet guru your buddy that has a website that's so cool to you it's it's not enough you got to be able to release all that stuff and just leave it all behind and join the smart money because trust me we're not serving cookies but it's a way better lifestyle over here than it is over there now the first video i gave you elements to a trade setup and i gave you two characteristics to it there's context and framework around the trade and then obviously those refer back to institutional order flow so you have to be able to bridge the two understanding expansion retracement reversal and consolidation and applying them to respectively order blocks fair value gaps liquidity voids liquidity pools stops online i'm sorry stop runs and equilibrium what does that mean for us for instance in its scope of price how can we use these ideas and make them applicable to price now i know some of you are chomping at the bit to learn long-term trading because you can't do day trading but bear with us as we go through these first couple months because i want to give you immediate feedback and the way you get that is by using intraday study because you get a lot of feedback and intraday action that is applicable to longer term charts but you can't i can't teach long-term day trading i'm sorry long-term trading on daily chart inside of 12 months adequately it can't be done because you're only looking at a scope of one year but with intraday it's like compressing years of data in just 30 years what's it not even 365 days really 200 some days that we're gonna be together so let's look at the daily range suddenly expansion retracement reversal and consolidation mean something every day starts with consolidation asian range after midnight there's a manipulation that takes place that's expansion it's coming in the form of a judah swing what is it doing it's making the higher low in london that's the london swing for a reversal that's a run on stops then there is another expansion move okay down into the new york session then there's going to be what another consolidation that's the new york consolidation going into the 8 to 8 30 news embargo lift where there's going to be another injection of liquidity or a reversal then there'll be another expansion and then we go into london close which is another reversal condition and then what happens the market goes in consolidation for the rest of the day so we have a way of looking at these things and applying these concepts to time of the day and repeating characteristics now let's get back to the interbank price delivery algorithm the daily range structure can be really broken down and simplified with it starts with a price equilibrium that's asian range then there's a manipulation and that's always going to come by way of some news event some news driver either at the time of the manipulation or just before it that's the judas swing then we'll see a range expansion in other words after the higher low is formed the range will start expanding it'll go down into five o'clock in the morning new york time or go up into that time window depend upon the daily direction we're going to use the perspective as a by day that means that asia the asian range has a small consolidation and then right after midnight new york time there's a drop down in price that's the manipulation making the false move for the low there's a range expansion then it goes into the reversal that's classic london open scenario where it shoots down runs the stops and then what happens it expands again there's another range expansion into what five o'clock in the morning new york time between five o'clock in the morning to eight o'clock in the morning in that time window the market will go back into consolidation then it will have a retracement between 8 o'clock and 8 30 in the morning new york time then it will have either a reversal in new york session or another expansion move the range will expand and make the rest of the day going up into 10 o'clock or 11 o'clock in the morning new york time where it will have a reversal again that's london close then the market will go into consolidation ending true day at 1900 on forex ltd's platform if you follow along with the videos we've been doing so far this month you'll know exactly what i'm talking about so we can see the interbank price delivery algorithm on a daily basis by studying these events and then seeing it over a period of time you'll know what is most likely to happen now let's look look at a little bit further if we're looking at price delivery and this is the model that comes by way of my understanding of how the interbank feeds price to everyone if we're focusing on delivery of price we have to understand that it all starts with a consolidation nothing can happen until consolidation consolidation is when the market's quiet why is that important because that's when the orders are building up in the marketplace the market makers will allow orders to build up above and below the range the next stage is always expansion it's not consolidation to retracement it can't retrace it hasn't moved anywhere it has it can't go consolidation reversal because it has to come out of the consolidation so when you see a consolidation or holding pattern you got to think the next leg is going to be in price it's going to be an explosive move or an impulse like impulse price swing movement you need to see movement by determining what that movement is and what direction is relative to the conditions you're trading in once we're in the expansion stage okay then you have a choice it can retrace come back to the order block it just left behind and then recapitalize that and then make another leg up or down relative to the direction it's moved or once it's moved in the expansion it can reverse once it reverses okay there'll be another expansion then it goes back to a consolidation the main thing is i want you to understand is it never goes consolidation retracement it never does consolidation reversal it's always consolidation expansion and then from expansion it goes either retracement or reversal it does not do consolidation expansion consolidation that does not happen it does a consolidation expansion it retraces for another uh move into a order block and then recapitalize it and do the same direction it moved when it made it expansion or it goes from expansion to reversal when you understand this algorithm the way it moves and where it operates it's very generic it's very systematic it has only a few options to go to and they're time sensitive they're day sensitive okay they're inter market related so so when one market is moving real fast if you understand the relationships like i'm going to teach every couple months you'll know where the trade setting up because one's being held and the other one's like letting it run which is the importance of knowing what the euro pound is dealing for trading five or a cable all these things are going to blend together and you'll know exactly how i'm doing these things internally and i'm doing it on the fly i'm not measuring things and writing this down writing that down making notes over here i just know by looking at price what i should be seeing and you see it i'm thinking out loud in the videos when i'm doing the live sessions with you all aiming at your better understanding of price delivery and when you understand these things when you get to the the level of month eight and month nine in the mentorship you're going to be so strong at knowing what the next thing is going to happen in your in your price that you're studying you'll know all these four things okay there's only certain processes that have to take place in a certain order like i said it never goes consolidation reversal it never does consolidation and retracement it goes consolidation to an expansion move there's an impulse leg up or down it's either going to be traced back down into where it just rallied up from or it's going to rally back up into where it just dropped down from the consolidation starts at all they're going to run an expansion and then once it expands he's either going to come back and retrace and give another leg up or down or it's going to reverse and then from the reversal start applying time the general structure is consolidation in asia expansion reverse in london make the higher low of the day then expand small consolidation in new york retrace between 8 o'clock and 8 30 in the morning new york time another expansion move reverse back to consolidation you understand price delivery then you will not learn it just by what i just explained to you just there but you'll use this as a model that repeats itself over and over and over again when you have higher time frame directional premise understood and then you look at this price delivery algo it's so easy to know what the price is going to do every single day since the last week of august we've been together and every single day i've given you something that went right to the pip or had an explosive direction move where you could have taken 50 to 60 pips out and i don't trade that much every day but i'm showing you by desensitizing you to fear and greed there's no need there's no need for those things what we're teaching is consistency the ability to see these things happening all the time and also exercising willpower on not wanting to make money so you're suppressing the desire to make money you're developing your patience and you're learning a great deal you have no understanding of how much you're learning just in these first two videos but i'm telling you you'll be able to look back on this months from now and say man that was a huge step i didn't appreciate until now there's a certain process the way the price is delivered and it can't be changed it won't be changed and don't be afraid because you're learning it 700 people is not going to turn the whole world around okay and they stop doing this it's not so again in closing take the information i'm giving you stuff it under your mattress stick it in a uh you know a love letter to your grandkids on you know how to do it but don't market it don't don't do that okay not because i'm gonna lose sales it's just it's too good to share and you're gonna see why i've kept it for so long and not wanted to do it and hopefully you guys will take this information and do something really great with it and that means not starting a website selling it okay there's nothing more i can say about this video except for there is a process that you're going to learn that is very generic and it will not break it will not stop working and when you look at the marketplace in your charts i want you to think now it doesn't matter what time frame you're looking at i'm just using the daily range to give you how easy it is to see on a repeating format so simple every day you get an opportunity to study and see how it works that same thing happens with a weekly range the weekly range is the same thing sunday's open consolidation then there's an expansion move in monday then what there's a reversal on tuesday or monday and then what there's another expansion move then it goes back into consolidation mid-week and it's either going to do what it's going to reverse or it's going to retrace it's never doing consolidation retracement it's never doing consolidation reversal it's consolidation expansion then from expansion you're making a choice it's either going to retrace back or it's going to reverse trust me it seems like you still have a lot of choices to make but it's not and when you understand what you're looking at in terms of price you'll know if it's really leading to a reversal or if it's really going to retrace and give you another opportunity to get in that another leg up or down that you saw in the first impulsive move and believe me you'll need to go back to this video even though it's the second one you'll come back to this video as we give more details along the lines of price delivery over the next couple months in month four and five you'll still refer back to this one and you'll see there it is it's been there all along so that guy's gonna wish you good luck and good trading