One Shot, One Kill Trading Techniques

Okay folks welcome to lesson 8 one shot one kill trading model for the short term trading module for ICT mentorship. This is the last of March's content. Okay one shot one kill setups. What does it require to do these efficiently and successfully? Well first you have to know all the macro conditions. and all the January content lessons. You have to be proficient with understanding the IFTA data ranges, looking back at the last 20, 40, and 60 trading days, looking for PDA ray matrix concepts applied to both time and price. You need the understanding of position trading module concepts. You need to understand the swing trading module concepts. The short term trading tutorials on the ICT website. The Power 3 concept applied to weekly candles or ranges. And I'll talk about that in a few moments. The intraday concepts from ICT day trading modules. Day of week concept. Looking for the high or low to form on Monday through Wednesday with a 70% odds of it happening, using FIBs for targeting and understanding the correct price points, time of day or ICT kill zones for entries, on one shot one kill setups, and you need to know the seasonal tendencies that may impact or frame directional setups, and lastly you need to understand the COT or commitment of traders. analysis and commercial hedging programs. Now I said when we started this mentorship that this was intended to fill in the gaps that I purposely left in all my free tutorials. Now if you've gone through the mentorship so far and you've not really studied all of my free tutorials that are on my website, now's where you're going to feel that sting of having never done it. It was intended and I've told you before the prerequisite is to know those free tutorials Everything that I'm going to show you in this module It's really just a quick fill in the gaps and then you'll understand how it is I do one shot one kill the gaps that remain for this month are filled in with the intraday concepts for day trading and It just basically helps you get more precise. Do you need it? Not necessarily Will you want it? Most likely. So if you've gone this far and you really want to know all the intricate details about how I finally narrowed down very tight, small risk, high yield setups like you've seen outlined and mapped out this week with the Eurodollar. You need the intraday concepts to get that precise, but you don't need it to do one shot one kill because you don't need it. Here's other things that help you get close to, but not that precise, that's already been shown in the content for this month and the previous months. Now as it relates to the COT analysis and commercial hedging programs, obviously everyone's aware of the commitment of traders report where they plot the net traders position of each commercial and small speculator and large trader. And Larry Williams was the first one to do real good work on that back in the 70s with his book, How I Made a Million Dollar Chain Commodities Last Year. But in my own study, I believe I've taken it to another level. No one else does what I do with the CO2 data. And I'm going to show you again this module and this teaching, how it is that I incorporate that information. Now, when we get to the commodity section later on this year. when I'm teaching the commodities I'll actually show you how to go in and construct the commercial hedges program and how to look for high probability setups using the information but I'm going to give you one set up in here for the euro dollar that was just like a no-brainer so you'll see why this week was just pretty much No problem at all knowing that it was going to come down like it did. All right, so the one shot, one kill trade procedure. Okay, this is kind of like a back of a matchbook idea, just real quick, short. And what I mean by that is you should already know a majority of what I'm going to refer to here procedurally. So this is the reason why you need to have a mentorship. This is the reason why you have to have a modular approach to learning. because there's such a vast amount of information that you need to be aware of. You just simply can't make a video and here it is. Here's how you trade. For those that have gone through all of my free tutorials and this far in the mentorship, you can now think about how much information you now have. Now, you probably floundered for a little while wondering, do I have too much information? Do I have analysis paralysis? And it's simply because you haven't had a procedural way of using all the information. So we've gone through a lot of content between the free tutorials since 2010 all the way to now, now through 2016, 2017 circa. You are now learning all of the procedural things that fills in the gaps. And by the time you end this mentorship, you'll know everything there is to know about ICT concepts and how to apply it. But the first thing we do when we look at our market and we're going to use Eurodollar as our example, we're going to determine that. current or potential next quarterly shift. Remember that? We talked about that in January. We're going to identify the higher time frame PD arrays in the IPTA data ranges. Again, that's content from January. We're going to refer to the interest rate differentials and market profile of the rates. In other words, our interest rates or treasuries or the bund, are those markets trending or are they stuck in a consolidation? If they're trending then you're going to get movement permitted in the euro dollar. If they're consolidated and tight it's going to be very hard for the market to move around. We're going to be scouting seasonals throughout the calendar year that offer high odds of a move going higher or lower based on the seasonal tendency respectively. We're going to use swing analysis on price action on higher time frames down to the 60-minute chart. So in other words, what we're doing is we're classifying all the price swings. We're looking at all the fractals, and we went over how larger trends have smaller swings that break into smaller swings that break into smaller swings. First an impulse swing, then an expansion swing after the retracement. So by looking at the market in the euro dollar and breaking that down, we can come to the conclusion of what price swings we're going to use. for projections, measurements, and retracements. We're going to anticipate specific weekly profiles that may unfold. Based on our analysis, if we're looking for lower prices, as we're going to justify in this teaching, we're going to be looking for specific market templates, if you will, that allow bearish ideas. So the first thing you would look for is the Monday high of the week, Tuesday high of the week, Wednesday reversal. those types of scenarios. Then by identifying those respective templates for the week, we're going to be looking at the market maker manipulation templates to have the respective profile characteristics. Then you determine where the premium and discount ranges are in price action and you're going to wait for volatility to signal a high odds of a large range being created. In other words, when range expansion should ensue. Small ranges, we got large ranges. If the market's in big ranges, we know there's going to be a high probability for the market to go quiet. We want to be getting in the market is quiet so that we can expand and get larger ranges and big volatility. We're going to refer to COT, which is commitment of traders, the commercials versus the large traders. and open interest to confirm smart money action. We look to frame a low resistance liquidity run with opposing PDA raise. If we're bearish, we're looking to sell short at a premium PDA, and then we're going to be looking at a discount PDA to pair it up with. We're going to use Fibs converging with opposing PDA raise. and blending it with time and price. In other words, what I'm looking for is a Fibonacci level that overlaps with a logical discount PD array. And we're going to be confirming our trade setups with intermarket analysis. All right, so we're looking at our one-shot-one kill setup on the euro dollar. Now, this was provided to you this week, the time of this recording, the last week of March 2017. I outlined through Twitter and tweets the... basis of expecting a high the form in the euro dollar around the 10908 level that was the level I called and the actual high was 10909 on the forex ltd's platform I projected a low of the week at 10650 that could have rolled over into Monday, but throughout the week I gave a 106.95 low objective and then ultimately at the very last minute of the day on Friday's close they pushed the euro dollar down to 106.55. Now our objective was 106.50. If that's what we're looking for we add five pips to that that would have been your objective used in your own platform. Some traders in my own live feeds, I got down to 106.497. I'll leave it up to you to determine what your data provider allowed for the low of the week for Eurodollar. But for the Forex LTD, it didn't make it down to 106.50, but I'm suspecting it's probably going to open up lower on Sunday. That's coming this weekend. And then obviously that would fulfill the whole projected swing. But we're going to go into great detail about all this. Apart from what's already been shared in this chart here, I'm not going to rehash what was already talked about in this week's teachings in the videos and commentary because that is in my opinion a gold mine and you need to go through those notes as well. But I'm going to go through it. What framed this whole move and how I knew that the high could most likely be formed on Monday and we would look for a Low 106.50. We're going to go into details about that now. Okay, so the first thing we're looking for is we're expecting Either up move or a down move. So how do we start doing that? Well, we go to our seasonal tendency Okay, if you're a sports fan, you'd like to go and watch a specific sports team like the baseball season or football season you can actually track when those teams play and what days in the calendar days and all that and you know when they're going to play they have a they have a schedule they have to keep well the markets almost have like a built-in generic schedule as well and it is followed or tracked by way of using a seasonal tendency now i shared these seasonal tendencies with you so far in the mentorship and what we do is we look for times where the market has a real clear indication in both the long term and short term, basically the blue and the red lines, they have to agree with a directional bias. And when they move in the same direction, red and blue, if they move in concert with one another, we have a really strong tendency to see that market generally move in that same direction. What we're going to focus on here is the month of March. As you can see, it initially starts off with a Rally up into the middle of March and then it declines to the last week of March going into the first week of April So our tendency is to see the euro dollar going lower So we have a strong seasonal tendency for bearish prices for euro dollar now We're going to go over to the commitment of traders hedging program now. You're not going to find this on the internet There's nothing talked about it's not in books. I swear to the Lord Almighty There's nothing out there like what I'm showing you here. Okay. What I do is I use the information from the commander trades report and I make a new way of creating a zero sum line. So what I do is I look at the last year. Okay. And I get the highest high and the lowest low of their commercial activity. In other words, I'm only tracking commercials. And I'll show you how to create all this and make it for yourself. But. A couple people in our group have emailed me asking for this specific indicator. There is no indicator. Okay, what I actually do is I actually create this with paint. Okay, I grab the information, and then I actually by hand create it. And I know what you're thinking, well, I track 39 markets, Michael. There's no way I'm going to keep up with that. Well, that's your fault. You shouldn't be tracking 39 markets. But when I focus on the two pairs that I like, which is Euro and cable, it takes literally seconds for me to do this, and it's not a big deal. But if you're going to be that hard up about it, I'm sure some of you that are in our group. Are capable of programming something I'm certain of it But once you learn how to do that when we do go into our commodity teaching I'll leave it up to you you smart whippersnappers that throw something together maybe for mt4 Platform that can you provide us a real quick easy way of doing it and then you can go back to trading You know umpteen number of pairs with the information, but what I do is I look at the hedging program that is illustrated by looking at the last calendar year. So I roll back data for 12 months and I look at the highest, highest, and lowest low in their net positions. Of the commercials only, I'm not looking at the large traders or the small specs. I don't really care what the small specs are doing. But when we track commitment of traders report data, or COT data, every week this CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, requires traders that trade at a reportable level to report whether they're buying or selling and the net positions that are held because commercial traders are like banks and large institutions and manufacturers of goods or commodities. There are groups that produce that are commercial level and there are groups that are consuming or resellers. Okay so there are users and creators of the commodity on a commercial level and based on that there's always going to be buying and selling on a commercial basis. The net positions okay are the collective whole of all their total buys and all their total sales and what are they more net long or net short as a basis and what I do is I take that information that comes by way of the CFTC and I plot this graph here by simply using a website and the information and just basically throwing in some lipstick. and it helps me visually see what the commercials are doing in terms of hedging. As you can see, at the time of this week, the commercials, which is tracked by this line, as it's below the zero line, it's going to be marked red. That's going to be bearish. When it's above the zero line, they're net long. That would be bullish. And back below the zero line. which would be represented between 100 and K and 50 K. Okay, that line I have drawn in there, that blue line, that represents the new zero line that would otherwise be viewed like a regular commitment shares report. You don't need to see that as I'm going to teach later on, but I've shown this in real quick short sessions throughout my time teaching. But I'm going to give you the details about how to use it. great detail about how I break it down. There's actual seasonal tendencies to their hedging programs that you actually look at too. And there are seasonal tendencies that go along with open interest declines as well. And it's really neat information. You need to know that to do mega trades. Mega trades are like huge big moves that take place every year. There's like two or three of them that really explode. You want to be focusing on markets that give you those types of conditions. But I'm digressing. So let me get back to the discussion with the Eurodollar. At the time of this week, the Eurodollar was making a higher high than that of in January. But look at the commercials. They were hedging against those rallies, and they really went net short, selling aggressively in the rally above the January high and the December high of 2016. So as we made a higher high in the Euro, the commercials were actually selling aggressively in that rally. So what are we seeing here? seasonal tendency that's highly probable for lower euro prices at the same time commercials are looking to sell short or they want to see prices going lower why because they're hedging against that rally they're selling into that rally why would they want to do that i don't know they're banks they do it all the time but logically over a period of time looking at it you'll see that they kind of put the brakes on a market rally by selling aggressively into it and that caps the market as you've seen here this week. So we had a blending of two things commercial short selling now if you look at a regular commitment or trades report You're not going to see that. You're going to see them net long. That's what screws everybody up, even Larry Williams, because they're looking at information, because they're looking at price through COT data from an archaic caveman approach. Now, I'm not saying it can't be used efficiently and effectively in certain conditions like it's traditionally taught through Larry Williams and everybody else is used now. But if it was just that easy, everybody would be making money, right? So why is it the commercials aren't? the first of everyone's list because nobody knows how to use it but you're learning how to do it now because you're in the click you're in the mentorship that teaches you everything about smart money so what we do is that we use this graph okay that you're gonna learn about in the commodity section of this teachings that's later on in the month I think it's in June but I'll teach you how to use the hedging program and actually look for seasonal tendencies for when they would really be buying or selling at certain times of the year. And also their seasonal tendencies and open interest. But open interest is not that important here because we have two things blending together. And you really only need two things to couple for smart money. You have the seasonal tendency. So in other words, there's a seasonal influence that usually sees Eurodollar. And I don't know what it is. I don't need to know. Seasonally, historically, Eurodollar drops down in the second half of March going into April. Okay, so we're looking for that seasonal tendency to take place, not by itself, but we're looking for technicals to support that idea. Well, we can see here the commercials were heavily net selling into that rally we've seen last week, leading into Monday's rally initially for this week in the euro dollar, and then it topped and tanked going lower. You can see right here that new higher high has been met with heavy net selling. by the commercial traders this is smart money shorting so now how do we go in and justify these ideas just because we have a chart that looks like it that indicates that commercials are selling and we look at a seasonal tenant just because these tendencies are suggesting higher or lower price it does not mean that it's going to happen there has to be something lining up technically to get in sync with the markets and seasonal tendency So it's not a seasonal tendency be all end all, it has to happen. No, seasonal tendency illustrates a probable condition or a probable outcome for the market direction. But without technicals aligning with that in a market environment that supports that idea, the seasonal tendency will get you in trouble. So we're looking at the dollar index here. I'm going to frame out the market conditions from a macro standpoint, and we're going to look at the next. quarterly shift and we're going to look at how the markets should be moving and We're seeing here on a weekly chart for the dollar index. We have an old high Now this is where price was trading down to it for this this week We've traded down into an old weekly high which makes this a discount PD array And we move down into a daily time frame and we can actually see another level That is a old mitigation block and it comes in at 98.92. Now if you look at that level, you would obviously suspect that it's going to go to what? We round up so it would be 98.95. You can go to 98.90 if you want to because it's only like two pips but generally the rules are we round up to the nearest five or zero level. And then breaking it down into an hourly chart. dollar index we can see that this is again illustrating the potential weekly range and we're looking for price to reach up from this discount level we saw in the weekly chart we're looking for premium pd pd arrays so we go through our market looking at where liquidity pools are bearish order blocks fair value gaps mitigation blocks breakers old highs and old lows that will act as resistance. As you can see here, we have a few noted. Each one of these were draws on price, and you can see they are all traded too with no problem with the exception of the fair value gap. I suspect next week, maybe even on Sunday, we'll probably see a gap up on Sunday's trading. That remains to be seen, but it certainly looks like it wants to do that. And if it doesn't gap up, we'll look for it to expand through Sunday into Monday into that fair value gap. Okay, and getting a better look at the dollar index, this is an hourly chart. What I have here is I have the equilibrium price point. identified. So anything above the equilibrium price point is going to be a premium and anything below it is going to be a discount. So now what we're doing is we added the PDArray matrix in the form of our premium and discount ranges. So now we can see graphically thinking like an algorithmic trader. So we're getting in sync with the algorithm. IPTA is going to pull and draw price up to these levels logically to allow the bank traders to put on trades. or manage their in-house book. So looking at what's going on in this chart, we can see clearly that the market has been drawn back up to equilibrium. So you're always going to look for discount to at least try to pull to equilibrium. Then it has to determine if it wants to go into premium or it could go back down deeper into a discount. You never know that for sure, but you need to blend time and price with the IPTA data ranges looking back over the last 20, 40, 60 days. Also, adding the PD array matrix as we have here, and we have all of the PD arrays noted that will be needed for this idea. Now, we're going to look at the euro pound because we have to have intermarket analysis support it as well. So, we've seen the dollar index poised to go higher. It's trading off a weekly discount PD array, and we have all of the premium. PDA raise above us noted in the previous chart that would be drawing price higher. So if we're looking for weak euro dollar prices, we need to see if the euro pound would support that idea as well. And you can see, obviously, the euro pound has tanked and went down to a very clear logical bullish order block on a four-hour basis, a series of downed candles sets the tone for that bullish order block. So that is a discount PDRA. It traded right down to it at Friday's close, but all throughout the week we saw the Euro Pound be aggressively sold off. So that's going to be weak for Euro Dollar and strong for Pound Dollar. OK, so we're looking at the Euro Dollar now and we can see here the Monday we opened up with a gap. Well, actually, it's Sunday. We opened up with a gap and traded higher throughout Monday. And we traded up into the weekly bearish order block for the euro dollar. And I'll leave you to look at your weekly bearish order block on your own platform. But this is the only level that was missing from this week's discussion because I want to be able to have some meat for this teaching. But the weekly bearish order block was traded into on Monday. And the question is, is how far into the weekly order block? would you expect it to trade into Michael? Well we're going to that in the last slide for this teaching but we're going to assume that you have studied the weekly templates that expect specific trading characteristics. You know what days make a specific higher load of the week. You know how the markets trade you know relative to those respective templates and then what manipulation do we expect by the market makers with that. specific template. Well since I elected to use the bearish idea that Eurodollar is going to go lower because the dollar index was bullish, okay, or should have been bullish trading off of its weekly discount PDA ray, couple that with we have seasonal tendency for Eurodollar to decline, we had commercials supporting lower prices with heavy selling into the rally, we have The condition for lower expectation in pricing on your dollar, that means we're going to be expecting either Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday to be the high of the week. So you always obviously start with the first day of the week, which is going to be the Monday. Okay, so price opens up on Sunday, gaps up, and it starts trading immediately right up on Monday. So right away, we have to assume that Monday is going to be the high of the week. So what we do is we go through the procedures of potentially picking the high of the week. Now, we don't try to go in here and time that weekly high. We don't try to do that. Now, you can, over time, do that yourself. But initially, you don't. You want to teach yourself to trust these concepts, okay, because it can go up on Tuesday and make a higher high. That's why you have to give it a little bit of leeway. Now, you can sell us a very small portion on Monday. And then if Tuesday fails to make a higher high, at least you have a small piece on the higher level. But if it does go higher on Tuesday. Wednesday at least you're not going to be at a full position underwater as it makes a higher high on those later days in the week what we do is on the Monday we look for price to trade up and then have a retracement intraday so you can see the London session had a retracement and then an expansion all through New York what I did was I measured the swing using the fib from the high formed in London down to the retracement low prior to the New York session rally. And what I did was I measured that swing intraday and it gave me the 10909 level. So what I did was I used one pip below that and called it 10908 because generally I'm usually one pip off and in this case I was one pip off, still one pip short. I thought I was making a compensation for it, but it actually went right to the level of 10909, at least on Fork's LTD's platform. So by doing that, what we end up doing is we can see a way of projecting the weekly high using the intraday stuff that we'll actually teach in April. And you'll be able to combine a lot of other things with time of day and specific measurements that I used to more or less nail down the. Power 3, or dare I say it, weekly Judas swing. So the initial rally here we saw on Monday was a false rally. All that was was heavy selling. They engineered price higher, built in a premium so they can sell it to the smart or lower intelligent crowd. Obviously the lower intelligent crowd. Smart money sells it to lesser informed money, and that's what we saw on Monday. So it takes us to the Eurodollar. We're in a four-hour chart. And you can see the PD array in the discount zone. You can see that liquidity void that we identified here and that 106.50 level. So using the 106.50 level as our baseline, drawing up from that point and our projected high of the week at 109.08, which is what I called. That's our range. And then we can divide that in half, get an equilibrium price point. And having that. we can now have a premium and discount PD array matrix. Then you start breaking down your markets PD array for premium and discount. We know that we have a liquidity void in the lower end of the discount range. So that's what we're aiming for. That's what we are aiming for. We came out of a premium market at 109.08 and as the market traded lower each one of the respective PD arrays gaps, liquidity pools, old highs to sell into, bearish order blocks, all those things as the market slid lower, they were all contributing factors as we mentioned throughout the analysis this week through tweets and in video production and on the daily chart indexes. Blending all these things together, all these things that I taught conceptually, The way you get to the results that you saw this week is you have to use them. You have to practice with them. There's not going to be a clear cut. This is how you do it every single time. There's going to be potential decisions that you're going to have to make. You might think that it's going to be the high of the week on Monday and you sell short. And then Tuesday in London or New York, it runs up there and blows that high out. Are you going to stick with the idea and expect lower prices still? Or are you going to be? whipsawed and thinking, okay, I was wrong. Let me go long. That's going to be a demon for you to wrestle with. So you have to come to a conclusion of what you want to do for the week and come hell or high water, stick to that until it no longer makes sense. And that happens mid week. And you learned in the previous lesson that there's many times a weekly reversal. So you always have a potential to mess it up. This is what makes it difficult, but it's so easy to do. How's that for an oxymoron? The point is, is in this teaching, we have a way of looking at price, blending concepts together, using experience, obviously. OK, but over time, seeing it, studying it in hindsight, you can look at 10, 15, 20 years worth of data and get to these outcomes. OK, through study and build yourself a library mentally with past experiences. Using the information you don't need to have every little thing down to an hourly chart You don't need that you can see the outcome based on a daily chart. You can see it. So I'm going to counsel you to use this as an example of how we can take the information, blend it together, and then come up with the nearest thing to perfection you're going to ever see in market analysis. Being one pip off from the high of the week and only five pips off the low of the week. But in most platforms 106.50 was hit with real-time data, not demo. And the high of the week was, you know, It was called and the low of the week was called. So I'll leave it up to you to determine whether or not this is something that leads you to more proficiency as a trader or does it create new barriers for your learning? I think that if you go through the concepts and especially when you finish the mentorship, you want to go back through all the lessons again, listen to all that boring stuff I talked about in January, go back through all the lessons in September, October, November. December and use all that information I helped pull all the free tutorials together back then some of you were complaining about that now you're seeing the fruits of having done that and if you haven't watched the free tutorials more than one time at the end of this mentorship you want to do that all over again okay so that way you kind of completes your whole learning and by then you have everything you ever need to know you'll know procedurally what you need to do and yes it requires a lot of work It's going to require you to think. It's going to require you to come to the decision. And it's not going to be black and white. It's not going to be this or that initially. But when we get to August, there's a specific procedure that you go through from the top down. And it leads you to specific decision points that tells you, okay, right now I think this is what I should be doing. Regardless of what discipline of trader you're going to be, it starts from the higher time frame position trader's mindset. as you would do with one shot, one kill. And you reduce it down. And you reduce it down to swing trading. And you reduce it down to short-term trading. And you reduce it down to day trading. So you can get that real low risk, real tight precision. And if you really want to get insane about it, you can use the scalping ideas and get insane with 10 pip stops. But it's not necessary. You don't need that. But the point is, it's there. It's made available to you. So hopefully this has been insightful to you. and it helps fill in the gaps with the short-term trading that I taught in my free tutorials and it gives you all the elements to how I trade ICT one shot one kill.

and all the January content lessons. You have to be proficient with understanding the IFTA data ranges, looking back at the last 20, 40, and 60 trading days, looking for PDA ray matrix concepts applied to both time and price. You need the understanding of position trading module concepts. You need to understand the swing trading module concepts. The short term trading tutorials on the ICT website.

The Power 3 concept applied to weekly candles or ranges. And I'll talk about that in a few moments. The intraday concepts from ICT day trading modules. Day of week concept.

Looking for the high or low to form on Monday through Wednesday with a 70% odds of it happening, using FIBs for targeting and understanding the correct price points, time of day or ICT kill zones for entries, on one shot one kill setups, and you need to know the seasonal tendencies that may impact or frame directional setups, and lastly you need to understand the COT or commitment of traders. analysis and commercial hedging programs. Now I said when we started this mentorship that this was intended to fill in the gaps that I purposely left in all my free tutorials. Now if you've gone through the mentorship so far and you've not really studied all of my free tutorials that are on my website, now's where you're going to feel that sting of having never done it. It was intended and I've told you before the prerequisite is to know those free tutorials Everything that I'm going to show you in this module It's really just a quick fill in the gaps and then you'll understand how it is I do one shot one kill the gaps that remain for this month are filled in with the intraday concepts for day trading and It just basically helps you get more precise.

Do you need it? Not necessarily Will you want it? Most likely.

So if you've gone this far and you really want to know all the intricate details about how I finally narrowed down very tight, small risk, high yield setups like you've seen outlined and mapped out this week with the Eurodollar. You need the intraday concepts to get that precise, but you don't need it to do one shot one kill because you don't need it. Here's other things that help you get close to, but not that precise, that's already been shown in the content for this month and the previous months.

Now as it relates to the COT analysis and commercial hedging programs, obviously everyone's aware of the commitment of traders report where they plot the net traders position of each commercial and small speculator and large trader. And Larry Williams was the first one to do real good work on that back in the 70s with his book, How I Made a Million Dollar Chain Commodities Last Year. But in my own study, I believe I've taken it to another level.

No one else does what I do with the CO2 data. And I'm going to show you again this module and this teaching, how it is that I incorporate that information. Now, when we get to the commodity section later on this year.

when I'm teaching the commodities I'll actually show you how to go in and construct the commercial hedges program and how to look for high probability setups using the information but I'm going to give you one set up in here for the euro dollar that was just like a no-brainer so you'll see why this week was just pretty much No problem at all knowing that it was going to come down like it did. All right, so the one shot, one kill trade procedure. Okay, this is kind of like a back of a matchbook idea, just real quick, short.

And what I mean by that is you should already know a majority of what I'm going to refer to here procedurally. So this is the reason why you need to have a mentorship. This is the reason why you have to have a modular approach to learning.

because there's such a vast amount of information that you need to be aware of. You just simply can't make a video and here it is. Here's how you trade. For those that have gone through all of my free tutorials and this far in the mentorship, you can now think about how much information you now have.

Now, you probably floundered for a little while wondering, do I have too much information? Do I have analysis paralysis? And it's simply because you haven't had a procedural way of using all the information. So we've gone through a lot of content between the free tutorials since 2010 all the way to now, now through 2016, 2017 circa.

You are now learning all of the procedural things that fills in the gaps. And by the time you end this mentorship, you'll know everything there is to know about ICT concepts and how to apply it. But the first thing we do when we look at our market and we're going to use Eurodollar as our example, we're going to determine that.

current or potential next quarterly shift. Remember that? We talked about that in January.

We're going to identify the higher time frame PD arrays in the IPTA data ranges. Again, that's content from January. We're going to refer to the interest rate differentials and market profile of the rates.

In other words, our interest rates or treasuries or the bund, are those markets trending or are they stuck in a consolidation? If they're trending then you're going to get movement permitted in the euro dollar. If they're consolidated and tight it's going to be very hard for the market to move around. We're going to be scouting seasonals throughout the calendar year that offer high odds of a move going higher or lower based on the seasonal tendency respectively.

We're going to use swing analysis on price action on higher time frames down to the 60-minute chart. So in other words, what we're doing is we're classifying all the price swings. We're looking at all the fractals, and we went over how larger trends have smaller swings that break into smaller swings that break into smaller swings. First an impulse swing, then an expansion swing after the retracement. So by looking at the market in the euro dollar and breaking that down, we can come to the conclusion of what price swings we're going to use.

for projections, measurements, and retracements. We're going to anticipate specific weekly profiles that may unfold. Based on our analysis, if we're looking for lower prices, as we're going to justify in this teaching, we're going to be looking for specific market templates, if you will, that allow bearish ideas.

So the first thing you would look for is the Monday high of the week, Tuesday high of the week, Wednesday reversal. those types of scenarios. Then by identifying those respective templates for the week, we're going to be looking at the market maker manipulation templates to have the respective profile characteristics. Then you determine where the premium and discount ranges are in price action and you're going to wait for volatility to signal a high odds of a large range being created. In other words, when range expansion should ensue.

Small ranges, we got large ranges. If the market's in big ranges, we know there's going to be a high probability for the market to go quiet. We want to be getting in the market is quiet so that we can expand and get larger ranges and big volatility.

We're going to refer to COT, which is commitment of traders, the commercials versus the large traders. and open interest to confirm smart money action. We look to frame a low resistance liquidity run with opposing PDA raise.

If we're bearish, we're looking to sell short at a premium PDA, and then we're going to be looking at a discount PDA to pair it up with. We're going to use Fibs converging with opposing PDA raise. and blending it with time and price. In other words, what I'm looking for is a Fibonacci level that overlaps with a logical discount PD array. And we're going to be confirming our trade setups with intermarket analysis.

All right, so we're looking at our one-shot-one kill setup on the euro dollar. Now, this was provided to you this week, the time of this recording, the last week of March 2017. I outlined through Twitter and tweets the... basis of expecting a high the form in the euro dollar around the 10908 level that was the level I called and the actual high was 10909 on the forex ltd's platform I projected a low of the week at 10650 that could have rolled over into Monday, but throughout the week I gave a 106.95 low objective and then ultimately at the very last minute of the day on Friday's close they pushed the euro dollar down to 106.55.

Now our objective was 106.50. If that's what we're looking for we add five pips to that that would have been your objective used in your own platform. Some traders in my own live feeds, I got down to 106.497. I'll leave it up to you to determine what your data provider allowed for the low of the week for Eurodollar.

But for the Forex LTD, it didn't make it down to 106.50, but I'm suspecting it's probably going to open up lower on Sunday. That's coming this weekend. And then obviously that would fulfill the whole projected swing. But we're going to go into great detail about all this. Apart from what's already been shared in this chart here, I'm not going to rehash what was already talked about in this week's teachings in the videos and commentary because that is in my opinion a gold mine and you need to go through those notes as well.

But I'm going to go through it. What framed this whole move and how I knew that the high could most likely be formed on Monday and we would look for a Low 106.50. We're going to go into details about that now.

Okay, so the first thing we're looking for is we're expecting Either up move or a down move. So how do we start doing that? Well, we go to our seasonal tendency Okay, if you're a sports fan, you'd like to go and watch a specific sports team like the baseball season or football season you can actually track when those teams play and what days in the calendar days and all that and you know when they're going to play they have a they have a schedule they have to keep well the markets almost have like a built-in generic schedule as well and it is followed or tracked by way of using a seasonal tendency now i shared these seasonal tendencies with you so far in the mentorship and what we do is we look for times where the market has a real clear indication in both the long term and short term, basically the blue and the red lines, they have to agree with a directional bias.

And when they move in the same direction, red and blue, if they move in concert with one another, we have a really strong tendency to see that market generally move in that same direction. What we're going to focus on here is the month of March. As you can see, it initially starts off with a Rally up into the middle of March and then it declines to the last week of March going into the first week of April So our tendency is to see the euro dollar going lower So we have a strong seasonal tendency for bearish prices for euro dollar now We're going to go over to the commitment of traders hedging program now.

You're not going to find this on the internet There's nothing talked about it's not in books. I swear to the Lord Almighty There's nothing out there like what I'm showing you here. Okay. What I do is I use the information from the commander trades report and I make a new way of creating a zero sum line.

So what I do is I look at the last year. Okay. And I get the highest high and the lowest low of their commercial activity. In other words, I'm only tracking commercials. And I'll show you how to create all this and make it for yourself.

But. A couple people in our group have emailed me asking for this specific indicator. There is no indicator. Okay, what I actually do is I actually create this with paint. Okay, I grab the information, and then I actually by hand create it.

And I know what you're thinking, well, I track 39 markets, Michael. There's no way I'm going to keep up with that. Well, that's your fault. You shouldn't be tracking 39 markets. But when I focus on the two pairs that I like, which is Euro and cable, it takes literally seconds for me to do this, and it's not a big deal.

But if you're going to be that hard up about it, I'm sure some of you that are in our group. Are capable of programming something I'm certain of it But once you learn how to do that when we do go into our commodity teaching I'll leave it up to you you smart whippersnappers that throw something together maybe for mt4 Platform that can you provide us a real quick easy way of doing it and then you can go back to trading You know umpteen number of pairs with the information, but what I do is I look at the hedging program that is illustrated by looking at the last calendar year. So I roll back data for 12 months and I look at the highest, highest, and lowest low in their net positions.

Of the commercials only, I'm not looking at the large traders or the small specs. I don't really care what the small specs are doing. But when we track commitment of traders report data, or COT data, every week this CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, requires traders that trade at a reportable level to report whether they're buying or selling and the net positions that are held because commercial traders are like banks and large institutions and manufacturers of goods or commodities.

There are groups that produce that are commercial level and there are groups that are consuming or resellers. Okay so there are users and creators of the commodity on a commercial level and based on that there's always going to be buying and selling on a commercial basis. The net positions okay are the collective whole of all their total buys and all their total sales and what are they more net long or net short as a basis and what I do is I take that information that comes by way of the CFTC and I plot this graph here by simply using a website and the information and just basically throwing in some lipstick. and it helps me visually see what the commercials are doing in terms of hedging.

As you can see, at the time of this week, the commercials, which is tracked by this line, as it's below the zero line, it's going to be marked red. That's going to be bearish. When it's above the zero line, they're net long.

That would be bullish. And back below the zero line. which would be represented between 100 and K and 50 K. Okay, that line I have drawn in there, that blue line, that represents the new zero line that would otherwise be viewed like a regular commitment shares report.

You don't need to see that as I'm going to teach later on, but I've shown this in real quick short sessions throughout my time teaching. But I'm going to give you the details about how to use it. great detail about how I break it down.

There's actual seasonal tendencies to their hedging programs that you actually look at too. And there are seasonal tendencies that go along with open interest declines as well. And it's really neat information.

You need to know that to do mega trades. Mega trades are like huge big moves that take place every year. There's like two or three of them that really explode. You want to be focusing on markets that give you those types of conditions.

But I'm digressing. So let me get back to the discussion with the Eurodollar. At the time of this week, the Eurodollar was making a higher high than that of in January.

But look at the commercials. They were hedging against those rallies, and they really went net short, selling aggressively in the rally above the January high and the December high of 2016. So as we made a higher high in the Euro, the commercials were actually selling aggressively in that rally. So what are we seeing here?

seasonal tendency that's highly probable for lower euro prices at the same time commercials are looking to sell short or they want to see prices going lower why because they're hedging against that rally they're selling into that rally why would they want to do that i don't know they're banks they do it all the time but logically over a period of time looking at it you'll see that they kind of put the brakes on a market rally by selling aggressively into it and that caps the market as you've seen here this week. So we had a blending of two things commercial short selling now if you look at a regular commitment or trades report You're not going to see that. You're going to see them net long.

That's what screws everybody up, even Larry Williams, because they're looking at information, because they're looking at price through COT data from an archaic caveman approach. Now, I'm not saying it can't be used efficiently and effectively in certain conditions like it's traditionally taught through Larry Williams and everybody else is used now. But if it was just that easy, everybody would be making money, right? So why is it the commercials aren't?

the first of everyone's list because nobody knows how to use it but you're learning how to do it now because you're in the click you're in the mentorship that teaches you everything about smart money so what we do is that we use this graph okay that you're gonna learn about in the commodity section of this teachings that's later on in the month I think it's in June but I'll teach you how to use the hedging program and actually look for seasonal tendencies for when they would really be buying or selling at certain times of the year. And also their seasonal tendencies and open interest. But open interest is not that important here because we have two things blending together.

And you really only need two things to couple for smart money. You have the seasonal tendency. So in other words, there's a seasonal influence that usually sees Eurodollar. And I don't know what it is.

I don't need to know. Seasonally, historically, Eurodollar drops down in the second half of March going into April. Okay, so we're looking for that seasonal tendency to take place, not by itself, but we're looking for technicals to support that idea. Well, we can see here the commercials were heavily net selling into that rally we've seen last week, leading into Monday's rally initially for this week in the euro dollar, and then it topped and tanked going lower. You can see right here that new higher high has been met with heavy net selling.

by the commercial traders this is smart money shorting so now how do we go in and justify these ideas just because we have a chart that looks like it that indicates that commercials are selling and we look at a seasonal tenant just because these tendencies are suggesting higher or lower price it does not mean that it's going to happen there has to be something lining up technically to get in sync with the markets and seasonal tendency So it's not a seasonal tendency be all end all, it has to happen. No, seasonal tendency illustrates a probable condition or a probable outcome for the market direction. But without technicals aligning with that in a market environment that supports that idea, the seasonal tendency will get you in trouble. So we're looking at the dollar index here. I'm going to frame out the market conditions from a macro standpoint, and we're going to look at the next.

quarterly shift and we're going to look at how the markets should be moving and We're seeing here on a weekly chart for the dollar index. We have an old high Now this is where price was trading down to it for this this week We've traded down into an old weekly high which makes this a discount PD array And we move down into a daily time frame and we can actually see another level That is a old mitigation block and it comes in at 98.92. Now if you look at that level, you would obviously suspect that it's going to go to what?

We round up so it would be 98.95. You can go to 98.90 if you want to because it's only like two pips but generally the rules are we round up to the nearest five or zero level. And then breaking it down into an hourly chart.

dollar index we can see that this is again illustrating the potential weekly range and we're looking for price to reach up from this discount level we saw in the weekly chart we're looking for premium pd pd arrays so we go through our market looking at where liquidity pools are bearish order blocks fair value gaps mitigation blocks breakers old highs and old lows that will act as resistance. As you can see here, we have a few noted. Each one of these were draws on price, and you can see they are all traded too with no problem with the exception of the fair value gap.

I suspect next week, maybe even on Sunday, we'll probably see a gap up on Sunday's trading. That remains to be seen, but it certainly looks like it wants to do that. And if it doesn't gap up, we'll look for it to expand through Sunday into Monday into that fair value gap. Okay, and getting a better look at the dollar index, this is an hourly chart.

What I have here is I have the equilibrium price point. identified. So anything above the equilibrium price point is going to be a premium and anything below it is going to be a discount.

So now what we're doing is we added the PDArray matrix in the form of our premium and discount ranges. So now we can see graphically thinking like an algorithmic trader. So we're getting in sync with the algorithm.

IPTA is going to pull and draw price up to these levels logically to allow the bank traders to put on trades. or manage their in-house book. So looking at what's going on in this chart, we can see clearly that the market has been drawn back up to equilibrium. So you're always going to look for discount to at least try to pull to equilibrium. Then it has to determine if it wants to go into premium or it could go back down deeper into a discount.

You never know that for sure, but you need to blend time and price with the IPTA data ranges looking back over the last 20, 40, 60 days. Also, adding the PD array matrix as we have here, and we have all of the PD arrays noted that will be needed for this idea. Now, we're going to look at the euro pound because we have to have intermarket analysis support it as well.

So, we've seen the dollar index poised to go higher. It's trading off a weekly discount PD array, and we have all of the premium. PDA raise above us noted in the previous chart that would be drawing price higher. So if we're looking for weak euro dollar prices, we need to see if the euro pound would support that idea as well.

And you can see, obviously, the euro pound has tanked and went down to a very clear logical bullish order block on a four-hour basis, a series of downed candles sets the tone for that bullish order block. So that is a discount PDRA. It traded right down to it at Friday's close, but all throughout the week we saw the Euro Pound be aggressively sold off. So that's going to be weak for Euro Dollar and strong for Pound Dollar.

OK, so we're looking at the Euro Dollar now and we can see here the Monday we opened up with a gap. Well, actually, it's Sunday. We opened up with a gap and traded higher throughout Monday. And we traded up into the weekly bearish order block for the euro dollar. And I'll leave you to look at your weekly bearish order block on your own platform.

But this is the only level that was missing from this week's discussion because I want to be able to have some meat for this teaching. But the weekly bearish order block was traded into on Monday. And the question is, is how far into the weekly order block?

would you expect it to trade into Michael? Well we're going to that in the last slide for this teaching but we're going to assume that you have studied the weekly templates that expect specific trading characteristics. You know what days make a specific higher load of the week.

You know how the markets trade you know relative to those respective templates and then what manipulation do we expect by the market makers with that. specific template. Well since I elected to use the bearish idea that Eurodollar is going to go lower because the dollar index was bullish, okay, or should have been bullish trading off of its weekly discount PDA ray, couple that with we have seasonal tendency for Eurodollar to decline, we had commercials supporting lower prices with heavy selling into the rally, we have The condition for lower expectation in pricing on your dollar, that means we're going to be expecting either Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday to be the high of the week. So you always obviously start with the first day of the week, which is going to be the Monday. Okay, so price opens up on Sunday, gaps up, and it starts trading immediately right up on Monday.

So right away, we have to assume that Monday is going to be the high of the week. So what we do is we go through the procedures of potentially picking the high of the week. Now, we don't try to go in here and time that weekly high. We don't try to do that. Now, you can, over time, do that yourself.

But initially, you don't. You want to teach yourself to trust these concepts, okay, because it can go up on Tuesday and make a higher high. That's why you have to give it a little bit of leeway. Now, you can sell us a very small portion on Monday.

And then if Tuesday fails to make a higher high, at least you have a small piece on the higher level. But if it does go higher on Tuesday. Wednesday at least you're not going to be at a full position underwater as it makes a higher high on those later days in the week what we do is on the Monday we look for price to trade up and then have a retracement intraday so you can see the London session had a retracement and then an expansion all through New York what I did was I measured the swing using the fib from the high formed in London down to the retracement low prior to the New York session rally.

And what I did was I measured that swing intraday and it gave me the 10909 level. So what I did was I used one pip below that and called it 10908 because generally I'm usually one pip off and in this case I was one pip off, still one pip short. I thought I was making a compensation for it, but it actually went right to the level of 10909, at least on Fork's LTD's platform. So by doing that, what we end up doing is we can see a way of projecting the weekly high using the intraday stuff that we'll actually teach in April.

And you'll be able to combine a lot of other things with time of day and specific measurements that I used to more or less nail down the. Power 3, or dare I say it, weekly Judas swing. So the initial rally here we saw on Monday was a false rally. All that was was heavy selling. They engineered price higher, built in a premium so they can sell it to the smart or lower intelligent crowd.

Obviously the lower intelligent crowd. Smart money sells it to lesser informed money, and that's what we saw on Monday. So it takes us to the Eurodollar.

We're in a four-hour chart. And you can see the PD array in the discount zone. You can see that liquidity void that we identified here and that 106.50 level. So using the 106.50 level as our baseline, drawing up from that point and our projected high of the week at 109.08, which is what I called. That's our range.

And then we can divide that in half, get an equilibrium price point. And having that. we can now have a premium and discount PD array matrix.

Then you start breaking down your markets PD array for premium and discount. We know that we have a liquidity void in the lower end of the discount range. So that's what we're aiming for.

That's what we are aiming for. We came out of a premium market at 109.08 and as the market traded lower each one of the respective PD arrays gaps, liquidity pools, old highs to sell into, bearish order blocks, all those things as the market slid lower, they were all contributing factors as we mentioned throughout the analysis this week through tweets and in video production and on the daily chart indexes. Blending all these things together, all these things that I taught conceptually, The way you get to the results that you saw this week is you have to use them. You have to practice with them. There's not going to be a clear cut.

This is how you do it every single time. There's going to be potential decisions that you're going to have to make. You might think that it's going to be the high of the week on Monday and you sell short.

And then Tuesday in London or New York, it runs up there and blows that high out. Are you going to stick with the idea and expect lower prices still? Or are you going to be? whipsawed and thinking, okay, I was wrong. Let me go long.

That's going to be a demon for you to wrestle with. So you have to come to a conclusion of what you want to do for the week and come hell or high water, stick to that until it no longer makes sense. And that happens mid week.

And you learned in the previous lesson that there's many times a weekly reversal. So you always have a potential to mess it up. This is what makes it difficult, but it's so easy to do. How's that for an oxymoron?

The point is, is in this teaching, we have a way of looking at price, blending concepts together, using experience, obviously. OK, but over time, seeing it, studying it in hindsight, you can look at 10, 15, 20 years worth of data and get to these outcomes. OK, through study and build yourself a library mentally with past experiences. Using the information you don't need to have every little thing down to an hourly chart You don't need that you can see the outcome based on a daily chart.

You can see it. So I'm going to counsel you to use this as an example of how we can take the information, blend it together, and then come up with the nearest thing to perfection you're going to ever see in market analysis. Being one pip off from the high of the week and only five pips off the low of the week. But in most platforms 106.50 was hit with real-time data, not demo. And the high of the week was, you know, It was called and the low of the week was called.

So I'll leave it up to you to determine whether or not this is something that leads you to more proficiency as a trader or does it create new barriers for your learning? I think that if you go through the concepts and especially when you finish the mentorship, you want to go back through all the lessons again, listen to all that boring stuff I talked about in January, go back through all the lessons in September, October, November. December and use all that information I helped pull all the free tutorials together back then some of you were complaining about that now you're seeing the fruits of having done that and if you haven't watched the free tutorials more than one time at the end of this mentorship you want to do that all over again okay so that way you kind of completes your whole learning and by then you have everything you ever need to know you'll know procedurally what you need to do and yes it requires a lot of work It's going to require you to think. It's going to require you to come to the decision. And it's not going to be black and white.

It's not going to be this or that initially. But when we get to August, there's a specific procedure that you go through from the top down. And it leads you to specific decision points that tells you, okay, right now I think this is what I should be doing.

Regardless of what discipline of trader you're going to be, it starts from the higher time frame position trader's mindset. as you would do with one shot, one kill. And you reduce it down. And you reduce it down to swing trading. And you reduce it down to short-term trading.

And you reduce it down to day trading. So you can get that real low risk, real tight precision. And if you really want to get insane about it, you can use the scalping ideas and get insane with 10 pip stops.

But it's not necessary. You don't need that. But the point is, it's there. It's made available to you.

So hopefully this has been insightful to you. and it helps fill in the gaps with the short-term trading that I taught in my free tutorials and it gives you all the elements to how I trade ICT one shot one kill.

Transcript for:One Shot, One Kill Trading Techniques

Transcript for:
One Shot, One Kill Trading Techniques