hey everybody welcome back to the channel we are back on another episode of the daily recap we've got a bunch of things to talk about but today's first story it's not going to be tariffs related it's not going to be Trump related even though there's plenty of things to talk about from that perspective uh it's going to be pounder related we got to triple digits again on Palunteer for the first time in about a month and a half we have a new Google partnership with Palunteer so we're going to finally start off the daily recap without having to worry about Trump and his tariffs even though we have a lot of headlines like when I mean a lot of headlines I mean I today could not believe how many storylines were going back and forth so we'll talk about Trump and the tariffs we'll talk about Pounder and their new um partnership today with Google particularly Google Cloud in the public sector uh and then we've got some other things to talk about in the context of Tesla pretty nice earnings broader market was one of the best days of 2025 until the middle of the day still a good day was green but didn't end up being as green as we were in the morning and uh we'll talk about some macro data as well in terms of new home sales and the manufacturing ISM and PMI data thank you for being here let's get into it all right so let's start off with Palunteer uh Palunteer great day it ended the day at about $100.50 at the height of the day was at $103.62 the last time we saw $100 on Palunteer was March not March it was Yeah it was February february around that February 21st time there was that big red candle the day that the Pentagon put out this headline that they're restructuring their DoD spend which theoretically would have been good for pounder because less money means more concentrated in the right areas aka software that works but uh it's been about a month and a half since we've seen $100 again and today we broke through it and we got those triple digits well why did that happen obviously yesterday based on Trump doing the pivot from uh being super aggressive with JPAL saying that he's not going to fire him and then doing the pivot on walking back the China 145% tariffs which he kind of walked back on from the walk back that he walked back on yesterday we'll talk about that in a bit those two things set up a good macro backdrop for Paler and the rest of the market to do well even though the market gave up a decent chunk of its gains during the middle of the day pounder only went from 103 to 100 which I'll take it given Pounder was at $90 on Monday so uh still a nice gain and Pounder right now at triple digits now the one partnership they got today I think kind of put it over the edge in terms of being able to maintain its multiple and maintain its green uh in the midst of some of the red that we saw today palanteer today has partnered with Google to bring Fed Start to the Google Public Cloud reading from the press release at Google public sector we are committed to helping our customers execute their missions now we're expanding this commitment by adding support for Pounder's FedStar platform so public sector customers can utilize software applications on Google Cloud's accredited infrastructure through the Pounder Fedstar platform what is Pounder FedSAR for those that don't know Pounder FedSAR helps US government agencies achieve compliance scale operations and action uh access innovative mission critical solutions from leading independent software vendors including many built natively on Google Cloud tlddr essentially fed Start is a program that Palunteer built to say hey you are a company that wants to sell into the government we have a lot of experience working with the US federal government we can give you the accreditations we can encompass the way that you sell into the US government we can give you the guard rails the compliance uh scaling the operations to actually be able to achieve the ability for you to even have a chance to sell into the US government and then Palenter makes a cut from the companies that are able to sell into the government so it's an incredible product they launched it about a year and a half ago they have a bunch of partners i think they have close to 15 to 20 different partners different companies that have are working with Pounder in that FedStar program and this is a part of the business that I think is highly undervalued just from its growth potential because there's hundreds of companies that want to sell to the USG but they don't have the accreditations to get there one of the things that most people know about Pounder if you've uh been in the stock for a bit is that Paler is part of a handful of companies that has security level ILS 6 clearance il6 is the highest level of security clearance you can have when working with the US government poundry actually got this like four years ago so it's not like they just got it they've had IL6 for a long time and that has allowed them to work with the hyperscalers like Microsoft Amazon Oracle as per uh April 2024 when they launched that partnership and today with Google so why is this partnership important i have four pieces of analysis here number one it further establishes their presence in the US government number two it continues to show their ability to collaborate with hyperscalers like Google Amazon and Microsoft number three again FedSAR is an incredible product to bring smaller companies into the government space now a lot of those companies that are building natively on GCP Google Cloud can integrate with Pounder pounder being sort of the agnostic abstraction layer that companies can integrate with without having to necessarily take their entire platform off of a Google Amazon or Microsoft and work with Pounder and then finally because Pounder is one of a handful of companies that have ILO level 6 security clearance in the USG integrating with Google in my opinion only shows more trust and safety that they can bring to the government now why does this matter well we've got Doge we have a whole new way of how governments are procuring software in terms of a new sort of paradigmatic approach so the more trust the more safety and the most efficiency that you can bring to the federal government I believe is going to be very valuable and pounder working with all the hyperscalers just kind of solidifies them in that spot and I think today only underscores that announcement further and further we do have Pounder earnings coming up on May 5th i will do a deep dive in terms of the numbers I'm expecting on their earnings i made a video back in January explaining how I think Pounder can get to 40% year-over-year growth do I think they'll get it in Q1 i have no clue i think it would be pretty crazy and I wouldn't be surprised if they got it because I do think there's a shot but I also wouldn't be surprised if it's like 32 to 33% last quarter was 36% i do think it's going to be a growth quarter it's not going to be like the Nvidia growth quarter even though it has a chance to be but it's going to be a big growth quarter and I think these deals and these partnerships are only establishing a bigger framework for pounder to continue to grow and as a result the market continues to reward pounder getting back to triple digits on the day all right let's get into what happened with Trump today we got a lot of different headlines to get through um because he talks every day he says something every day scott Bent the Treasury Secretary says something every day and you got a lot of conflicting headlines going back and forth but I will try to synthesize and condense everything that happened today okay so yesterday he took away the China tariffs essentially and said he wouldn't file POW cool right markets were happy 9:30 they opened up this morning everything was green like blistering green and so everything was cool then the headlines started coming through so first headlines from Wall Street Journal the White House is reportedly considering to meaningfully slash China tariffs we knew that tariffs could operate in a tiered system with 35% on non-strategic goods and 100% on national security products so think maybe 100% on like pharmaceuticals and 35% on t-shirts um I don't know why we need to do 35 on t-shirts but nonetheless like there would be some type of tiered system not confirmed that's just what the Wall Street Journal said and then the Wall Street Journal also said Bent and Lutnik convinced Trump to not fire pal okay cool so we got some headlines got some data and maybe we have this tiered system uh good to go then Bent 20 minutes later does a speech and he says these four things more than 100 countries have reached us uh reached out to the United States for trade so we got a number of 100 plus countries number two he said a really good line which I think a lot of people liked america first does not mean America alone so he's trying to say hey we're not trying to isolate everybody we're just trying to watch out for our interests as well and then he on China for the next 30 minutes he says "China's current economic model is unsustainable and they are harming themselves in the entire world." And he says "China can't just keep relying on the USA for demand." All of these points very fair i mean yes there are obviously a lot of issues with what China is doing in terms of the manipulation of their currency as well which is not the best thing in the world and he then gave some confirmation that hey a bunch of countries are reaching out to us on trade cool so that's fine that's dandy not that big of a deal what gets the market to go down well the White House comes out with a headline and the White House ends up kind of denying the the 145% tariffs that are going to be going away to an extent so White House press secretary Caroline Levich she comes out and says there will be no unilateral reduction in tariffs against China the president has made it clear that China needs to make a deal with the United States of America and that's when the market starts coming back down a lot of the gains that we had started taking a little bit of a breather now what does this mean that there will be no unilateral reduction in tariffs against China essentially the way I'm interpreting this is the press secretary is saying "Hey Trump's not just going to get rid of the 145% tariffs unless he gets something that he wants and likely we're going to need some reciprocity when it comes to the reduction of tariffs from the other side aka yes we're going to get those 145% tariffs down but it's not going to happen anytime soon." Then Trump goes and he does a press conference at 5:00 pm and he says explicitly when asked about the China tariffs quote "I have not brought down the 145% tariffs yet on China." And the way he said it if you were listening to it it was kind of just like "What are you talking about the tariffs are still there i haven't brought them down they're still 145%." So it's kind of like yesterday bond market was screaming stock market was not doing the bets and Trump says "Uh hey we're going to take down these Chinese tariffs stock market recovers bond yields were down today they kind of ticked up towards the see the sentiment in terms of how he was talking and it was like what are you talking about i haven't brought down the 145% tariffs and it was kind of one of those things where the market just wanted like real confirmation that the tariffs are going down but he didn't really give it uh by trying to kind of play this game that said "Hey no like the tariffs are still in place i'm not bringing it down." Now the market didn't really tank on that statement after hours the reason I think futures didn't tank futures are green right now is because now at this point the market doesn't believe anything and when Trump says "I'm putting on tariffs i'm not putting on tariffs." yada yada unless it's some unique statement that we haven't heard before that's like something that could really catch you off guard i think the market's like "You know what there is no way in hell Trump's actually going to be able to impose 145% tariffs eventually it's going to go away." And I think the market's believing that we don't have the most leverage in the context of China and eventually we're going to have to come to a deal and so my conclusion from that is if we get more opportunities in the future where the volatility takes the market down I think you buy the dip i mean I've been doing that all year i know a lot of people that uh have been doing that all year and it's like if you if you're sort of a long-term investor yes buy the dip that philosophy has worked out but I think realistically at this point Trump has shown a lot of his cards and the cards are that he simply doesn't have the ability to impose these insane tariffs because it's not going to work xi Jinping did nothing for the past couple weeks and then Trump walked them back yesterday and I guess today he's trying to sound like he's not necessarily walking them back even though he is walking them back and so the market should have tanked after hours today 2% because the market went up 2% after hours yesterday when he said he's walking back the tariffs but they didn't because I think the market believes at this point look the tariffs are going away eventually we just have to be patient and at this point if the market uniquely reacts and we get a negative movement to the downside I think you just buy that dip on top of all of that volatility Trump said a couple other things and then we'll talk about the Bent Elon story that was big today trump said "I haven't personally talked to Pal yet but I might call him soon i think it's time to lower rates." He then says "Elon is brilliant he deserves to go back to Tesla whenever he likes." Commenting on Elon's uh remarks from the earnings call yesterday for Tesla and then he says "I love the Canadians and Mark Carney is a nice guy but it is costing us too much money to support them so uh he then goes on to say that hey we can't keep sending Canada as much money as we're spending and that's why the auto tariffs for 25% and the steel and aluminum tariffs that were rumored to be going away." The Financial Times reported that a couple hours ago he kind of doubled down on those tariffs and said they're not going anywhere and that we're going to keep imposing those 25% auto tariffs on Canada so all those statements not the best statements but it didn't crash the markets after hours throughout all of this during the day you had another thing happened which was that the Wall Street Journal reported and the White House confirmed that Scott Bent and Elon Musk don't like each other so Elon unfollowed Bent uh last week and the reasoning behind it was that Elon wanted one guy as the new IRS chair basent wanted a different guy apparently sources told the Wall Street Journal they started yelling at each other aggressively basent said that uh to Elon you promised oldie savings and Doge and you haven't executed and then and then Elon tells Bent "You are a um Soros agent." Because obviously Scott Bent has ties to to George Soros so both of these guys going at each other's souls right here it was a loud heated argument the White House was asked about this argument press Secretary Caroline Levid basically said "Uh we have healthy disagreements in the White House and we will transparently have these healthy disagreements." And then when she was asked uh who did the president pick she said well they're both here aren't they implying the president hasn't picked anyone even though the president did pick um the sense choice for IRS for the head of IRS over Elon so he he picked Bent in this situation but he didn't like kick Elon out or anything so he still gets advice from both of them which means they're both still part of his inner circle uh but he ended up going with Bent in terms of the IRS choice so you've got all this drama going on in the White House you've got all this volatility in terms of are we walking back the tariffs are we not walking back the tariffs and then you've got more and more headlines around auto tariffs steel aluminum this stuff that people think is going to start to go back down it's not going anywhere and Trump is in fact doubling down on the fact that we need to impose these tariffs even more still the S&P ended up about 1.5% on the day so look it was a green day we'll take any of these green days but I think this market is the most um headline sensitive market I've seen ever and I've been you know realistically coming to the markets for the past 5 years got took it really seriously for the past three years i'm sure I will have many many more markets to go through over the coming decades but uh for those that have been following the markets for the past couple decades leave me a comment like have you seen a market that has been this sensitive to every little syllable that the president utters in a press conference and a briefing he also did an impromptu press conference at 11 a.m uh and then that's also created a bunch of different quotes that got the market spinning in different directions so look the administration is definitely giving us a ton of media every single day but a lot of conflicting narratives as well i mean even here's an example of a conflicting narrative bas says 100 countries have reached out to us trump in his second press conference of the day at 5:00 p.m said that 90 countries reached out to us now it might be a minute difference between 90 and 100 but in a world in which we don't have a trade deal yet and we really need one those extra countries make a difference right and people start taking it seriously and more so the perception of like hey how many countries are actually there like how many like are are you just making up these random numbers are these real are these fake or like what's going on here and so look I think you buy the dip i think if we get more volatility you buy the freaking dip these are the best companies in the world eventually I think AI technology all this stuff is very real it's not going anywhere we'll have Google earnings tomorrow and we'll get to see how Google is thinking about the future of AI as well but if you get these opportunities where the market says you know what we don't believe anything and we want to go further down then I think you take advantage of that but I also think the market's getting to the point where they're like this is getting stupid this is like becoming a game and we're not just going to sell off simply because of some headlines we see now final update on Trump today and this is not something I like seeing but it is what it is um uh I can't really defend it uh I don't think anyone can necessarily defend it but Trump launched a program for the top 220 holders of the Trump memecoin ticker symbol Trump and if you are in the top 220 holders of the memecoin you will be invited to a private dinner in Washington DC on May 22nd the memecoin was up 35% at around 2 p.m let me just check the price of it right now it is now up 40% at the height of it it was up about 60% during the day so one way to pump your own memecoin is to appoint Paul Atkins as the head of the SEC who was sworn in yesterday uh who is not going to investigate any of this and to promise a dinner to 220 people if they have a significant amount of holdings in the Trump memecoin so that is official that's not fake it was announced on the official Trump memecoin website and so you had that to deal with throughout the entirety of the day along with all the tariff volatility it's uh it's it's it's it's happening we're living through it and we just got to be able to figure out how to manage the volatility and navigate it every single day okay next quick update on Grab i have a six-figure position uh in this stock i continue to believe that it is going to be one of those stocks that uh will outperform it is in a four-year consolidation i think the cons consolidation eventually can turn into a breakout uh very simple headline right here grab just added Steve Tishman to its board of directors steve Tishman is a veteran investment banker specializing in mergers and acquisition why is this important well Grab is trying to buy out one of their biggest competitors in Indonesia go to and if they do they'll add $1.2 billion of revenue overnight and I think change the entire trajectory and narrative of their business uh my Grab thesis is pretty extensive i'll link it in the description on X if anyone wants to read it but overall free cash flow is exploding 30% trades at cash 44 million monthly active users they're acquiring various companies they just acquired another financial services company two weeks ago they held their first ever product day in Southeast Asia these companies really don't host product days like Robin Hood or Pounder but Grap did it and they have a founder CEO their biggest issue is their margins but that is a story that I think will inflect to the upside versus staying stagnant i think for the past four years it's been a really crappy story i think that story is changing and the company is profitable so yeah for those that are into Grab or for those that want to take a look at it it seems like they are now getting serious about appointing people to their board of directors which there's only eight people on that board that can meaningfully rearchitect entire businesses and help them merge with other companies maybe this is for Goto maybe this is to architect the other uh financial services company they just acquired but regardless I think Grab is making some serious moves and that was the update we got today for Grab okay some macro data so we had some pretty interesting macro data today that uh is important I think in the context of some of the stuff that people really cared about seeing so services PMI which is a way to understand the economy uh contracting or expanding from a services perspective we also have manufacturing services PMI the expectations was 51.3 or sorry the expectation was let me get the exact one right here the expectation was 40 uh or sorry 52.5 we came in at 51.4 four miss but not a bad miss manufacturing the expectation was 49.1 we came in at 50.7 that's a beat global which is the composite of those the expectation was 51 we came in at 51.2 all that means in general is that we are expanding as an economy versus contracting if you're below 50 you're contracting if you're above 50 you're expanding this is in the United States now there are other PMI datas and ISM datas that show that we are contracting so I think GDP growth in Q1 probably is going to be negative the Atlanta Fed says that we're probably coming in at negative -2% maybe we come in at negative 2.4 negative 1.5 but we're going to be negative in this quarter it's just not that aggressive to the downside which again if we're tracking hey are we going to get into a recession we need to see some aggressive moves to the downside to be able to say we're definitely having a recession now one thing that surprised me today new home sales in the United States of America was the best in almost 10 months uh the market was expecting 680,000 homes to be sold we came in at 724,000 meaning there's more cash on the sidelines even with mortgage rates at 7% people are willing to buy homes and so what happens when rates come down mortgage rates come down to maybe five and a half 6% I think there's a lot of capital on the sidelines that once they get into the housing market the question is just will we have the rates coming down to allow them to get there and they'll probably refinance in in the future which is actually really good for SoFi given they get a lot of demand from refinancing uh when rates do go lower So in terms of that macro data not amazing not horrible but that was most of the data we have today all right last thing I want to talk about is OpenAI they came out with some crazy projections today open AAI now projects $125 billion in revenue in 2029 with 25 billion of that from new products that they have not yet announced if they hit it the current valuation is $300 billion it's obviously going to be a steal google does $400 billion a year in revenue they're worth two trillion openai just raised at 300 billion sam Alman has rumored that they have about a billion users which is insane given that there's so many competing models but people are choosing chatb and the company's projecting about 125 billion in revenue by 2029 um yeah I think that's bullish for OpenAI but I don't own OpenAI what I own is Nvidia i did a podcast with Steve last night i'll link that in the description as well we talked extensively about Nvidia i am more and more convinced that Nvidia trading at 19 times earnings take away 10% of their EPS they start trading at 17 times earnings walmart trading at 31 times earnings with most of their stuff coming from China which is an issue nvidia some of their revenue is from China but the majority of it is from outside of China the idea that Walmart is trading almost double uh what Nvidia is trading for not even a tenth of the growth is insanity so I think the market is doubtful about AI capex spend but then OpenAI is saying "Wait a second we're going to be doing hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue in the next five years all of that is going to take more computational infrastructure more reasoning models more GPUs." Sam Alman literally tweeted today "Hey we're looking for more GPUs and we hope to get them soon enough to be able to handle all the demand." Like where do we think the story is going and I think eventually the market's going to wake up once the macro volatility is done the tariff stuff is done maybe we get back into a little bit more of a friendlier environment for the semiconductors and I think these are opportunistic moments to be loading up on Nvidia and uh that is what I'm currently doing right now so not a bad update in the world of Nvidia all right that's it for me thank everybody for listening and watching hopefully you all enjoyed the daily recap will be back tomorrow i am going to Canada Toronto on Saturday i'll leave the link in the description as well for anyone who wants to fill out that form to meet me there and uh yeah we have our own location on Saturday it'll be super fun and if you want to sign up you can uh sign up on the form in the description and you'll get an email with all the details thank you everybody appreciate it i'll see you guys in the next one