The meeting, led by Scott Henderson, covered comprehensive swing trade analysis for the week, including sector and stock-specific observations, trade reviews, and trade setup ideas.
Key points included mixed sector signals, a focus on new trade opportunities in names showing relative strength or potential for upside, and a more conservative long-term swing approach due to fewer strong short-term setups.
Attendees were reminded to align trade sizes with personal risk models and await further trade details posted in chat.
No major decisions affecting trade strategy were made; the session focused on technical setups, potential trades, and ongoing market analysis.
Action Items
This week – Scott: Complete mapping and post detailed trade plan for AVGO in chat.
This week – Scott: Monitor and potentially add to Unity position between current strikes; assess boxed-in position for further action.
Ongoing – Scott: Monitor sector and flow information for new emerging opportunities.
This week – Scott: Spend time reviewing upcoming earnings, especially for pre-bank cycle candidates.
Market & Sector Overview
Overall market breadth is positive but not as strong as expected at all-time highs, with notable rotation in non-tech sectors (industrials, energy, real estate).
Financial sector strength seen as potentially misleading due to underlying concerns in retail office delinquencies and defaults.
M2 money supply at all-time high, yet crypto remains flat, which is unusual and flagged for future monitoring.
Sector flows strongest in information technology, financials, and industrials; consumer staples also showing recent strength.
Earnings season is in the pre-bank stage with no immediate high-conviction opportunities due to lack of significant expected moves.
Trade Review and Current Positions
Closed most cash-secured puts in Google, with consideration to reopening positions based on new AI approval news.
Covered calls sold on Grab for revenue; overall unrealized P&L at $1,669.
Existing positions in KRE and QQQ considered inactive; consideration for adding to Unity and maintaining VIX $50 cash-secured puts despite being slightly underwater.
Insiders are active in Nvidita, AMD, and Mastercard; notable sector flows into Oracle and AVGO.
Additional trade setups and mappings to be posted in chat as completed.
Trade Setups & Technical Observations
Apple: Strong flows across investor types; upside target mapped near $238. Cash-secured puts at $210 (July or September) or call spreads considered for aggressive play.
Duolingo: Prefer long-term swing with entry near $371; consider cash-secured puts at $355 or call spreads (e.g., $370 by $480) if price retraces.
MD: Broken out of base, targeting $9 upside; calls or call spreads considered for 8-12 week horizons.
MRNA: Technicals suggest potential bullish trend change; September $25 cash-secured puts or $35 calls for 8-16 weeks out recommended. Limited premium at low strikes; deep out-of-the-money strategies carry risk in strong rallies.
Oscar Health (OSCR): Positive technical structure with large block option activity at $25-30. Consider $15 cash-secured puts (July/August) or 8-16 week calls. More aggressive: $17.50 by $27 call spread.
TEAM: Potential bottoming structure; September $200 cash-secured puts suggested for larger portfolios, with caution on position size due to capital requirements. Watch for AI-related risk to business fundamentals.
CELELY: Industrial sector trade idea; targets $70, risking $58. Prefer $60 cash-secured puts (July/September) or $65 by $110 call spreads. Conservative approach recommended due to lack of FOMO in industrials.
Decisions
No major changes to swing trading approach — Maintained more conservative, longer-term swing setups due to fewer immediate high-conviction trade opportunities.
Monitor AVGO for possible new position — Pending completion of technical mapping and detailed plan.
Open Questions / Follow-Ups
Awaiting further analysis and trade details for AVGO from Scott.
Need to monitor if the divergence between M2 money supply and crypto performance resolves or persists.
Assessment needed for potential bank earnings trades in upcoming cycle after further review.