Overview
This lecture discusses widespread issues with numeracy and public understanding of statistics, highlighting the gap between perceptions and reality and advocating for greater engagement with numbers.
Numeracy in the Population
- In 2003, 47% of UK working-age adults lacked Level 1 numeracy (basic GCSE-level: fractions, percentages, decimals).
- By 2011, this figure rose to 49%, despite policy changes and investments.
- Low numeracy is a concern in multiple countries; for example, nearly 40% of young people in the US have low numeracy.
- Countries like the Netherlands and Korea have significantly lower rates of low numeracy.
Public Misconceptions and Statistics
- People often fall into two categories: those comfortable with numbers and those who are not, but this is a false dichotomy.
- Statistics often reveal the gap between public perception and reality.
- Example: British public estimated that 24% of the population are Muslim; official figure is about 5%.
- Estimations for teenage pregnancies and obesity rates in different countries show large perception gaps compared to reality.
Causes of Misperceptions
- Influences include individual experiences and media emphasis on rare events.
- Daniel Kahneman’s research shows people are poor intuitive statisticians, often "blind to their blindness."
Engaging with Local Data
- A web quiz was developed to improve statistical engagement, using local census data and icon-based visuals.
- The quiz allows users to estimate social statistics for their local area, making the data accessible without jargon.
- Gamification and visualization prompted widespread public engagement and discussions about personal misconceptions.
Statistics as a Tool for Understanding
- Even experts perform poorly when guessing statistics for their own areas.
- Statistics is described as "the science of us," emphasizing its role in understanding society.
Key Terms & Definitions
- Level 1 Numeracy — Basic mathematical skills, including fractions, percentages, and decimals, equivalent to a low-end GCSE score.
- Statistics — The science of collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data about groups or communities.
- Isotypes — Visual representations of data using repeating icons, making numbers more accessible.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Consider how personal perceptions may differ from reality and seek out official statistics for clarification.
- Try using local or national statistical quizzes to test and improve your understanding of community data.