Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Overview

Aug 12, 2025

Overview

This lecture covers the chi-square goodness of fit test, focusing on calculating expected counts, computing the test statistic, interpreting results, and reviewing key assumptions for validity.

Calculating Expected Counts

  • Expected count = hypothesized proportion × total sample size.
  • Proportions in the null hypothesis determine the expected counts for each group.
  • Expected counts may not be equal if null hypothesis proportions are not equal.

Chi-Square Test Statistic

  • Use the formula: sum of (observed - expected)² divided by expected for each group.
  • Each group's result is called a "contribution to chi-squared."
  • Add all contributions together to get the chi-square test statistic.
  • Large chi-square values indicate a significant difference between observed and expected counts.
  • Chi-square is not interpreted like a z-score or t-score and can be much larger.

Interpreting Results

  • A larger chi-square statistic suggests the sample data disagrees more with the null hypothesis.
  • Comparing chi-square values across different null hypotheses shows which is more inconsistent with the sample data.

Assumptions of the Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Test

  • Samples must be random and representative of the population.
  • Observations should be independent from each other.
  • All expected counts must be at least 5 for the test to be valid.
  • If any expected count is below 5, the test may not be appropriate.

Key Terms & Definitions

  • Expected Count — the number predicted in each category if the null hypothesis is true.
  • Observed Count — the actual number observed in each category.
  • Chi-Square Test Statistic (χ²) — sum of (observed - expected)² / expected across all groups.
  • Contribution to Chi-Squared — the value for each group before summing to get χ².
  • Null Hypothesis — the initial assumption about population proportions for the groups.

Action Items / Next Steps

  • Ensure all expected counts in future calculations are at least 5.
  • Check for random and independent samples before applying the chi-square test.
  • Practice calculating chi-square test statistics with given data and proportions.