Lecture Notes: Demographic Transition Model

Overview

• Demographic Transition Model: Describes changes in a country's population structure.
  • Transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
  • Population stabilizes in industrialized countries.
  • Less developed countries often follow the path of more developed countries.
  • Currently, most countries have a positive growth rate.

Growth Rate

• Definition: Measures the change in population size over a time period.
• Example Calculation (Country "Zed"):
  • Start Population: 1,000,000
  • Births: 20,000
  • Immigration: 50,000
  • Deaths: 15,000
  • Emigration: 5,000
  • End Population: 1,050,000
  • Growth Rate Formula: [\text{Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{End Population} - \text{Start Population}}{\text{Start Population}} \times 100]

Reasons for Positive Growth Rate

• Economic benefits (e.g., children as workers)
• Government incentives for children (e.g., Japan)
• Religious influences promoting large families
• Cultural factors (e.g., prestige in having children)

Stages of Demographic Transition

• Stage 1: High birth and death rates; stable population.
  • Limited birth control and economic benefits of large families.
  • Poor nutrition and high disease rates.
• Stage 2: Decreasing death rates; population begins to rise.
  • Improvements in health, sanitation, and food availability.
• Stage 3: Declining birth rates; population growth slows.
  • Access to contraception and smaller family trends.
• Stage 4: Low birth and death rates; population stabilizes.
  • Influenced by women's workforce participation and career focus.
• Stage 5: Speculative stage with possible scenarios.
  • Stabilization due to resource constraints.
  • Potential negative growth rate.
  • Rising individualism and economic burden of children.

Theories and Future Possibilities

• Malthusian Theorem: Resource depletion leading to stabilization.
• Anti-Malthusian Theorem: Individual choices leading to reduced birth rates.
• Policy Influence: Policies encouraging small families (e.g., China).
• High standard of living potentially promoting higher fertility.

Conclusion

• Demographic transition involves shifts in birth and death rates.
• The future beyond Stage 4 is uncertain.
• Possibilities include stabilization, decrease, or further increase of population.
• Long-term outcomes remain to be observed.