okay guys so uh in this video we're going to be going over everything that kind of happened last week and showcasing all the statistics that I use in in trading and so what I want this video to really help people see is one the the simplest way that you can execute on one single time frame not having to worry about hundreds of different confluences having to stress about the perfect entry all that stuff is just kind of having peace on the charts using statistics and probabilities because to me data is the most black and white way that we can kind of communicate on the charts because if you ask somebody well what trend is this well 10 different people are going to give you 10 different answers based on their own subjective way of what a trend even looks like right a trend on a one minute may look different than what it looks like on a 15 minute and somebody on a 15 minute may think it's different than somebody on an hour right like it's all subject on what people look at in terms of how they view a trend what they view as a fair as a good fair value Gap versus a bad one a good order Block versus a bad one a good support versus a bad support like it's it's all still a little subjective and so when I use statistics and and and data it's it's very black and white it it eliminates the subjectivity of oh you took this trade wrong because of XYZ you kind of can't really do that with with Statistics because because every single day we know waking up right if you take right here starting on the hourly the only reason I go to the hourly is to pull more data for the midnight snap as you can see nothing is subjective about starting from eight I double click in here starting from eight to 11:15 we have a 65 to 68% probability of of retracing to midnight and specifically here in the past 954 days from Monday last week we had an 68.7% probability right meaning we have out of 954 days we have retraced 68.7% of the time back to midnight open New York midnight open and so that's something that just can't be disputed right anybody can go to their charts and if you wanted to by hand and you didn't want to trust this indicator which you can you can you can literally go on a Google sheet and just match this and and do it by hand you can see you're going to get the rough statistic that's why it's s people 65 to 68 some people have used other types of you know data collecting softwares and it's all around the same deviation of 65 to 68% and the thing is is that it's just irrefutable data right it doesn't matter how you get the data it's still going to come around to the same statistic and so if I understand that this black and white statistic of however I'm viewing the market has survived multiple market conditions it's survived elections it's survived bull markets bare markets NFP weeks CPI PPI all these different fomc meetings high impact news events drone pal opening his mouth anything new uh oil inventories inflation reports all of this stuff if these statistics are giving us a 65 to 68% or if we're about to go over the opening hours as well if the opening hours like let's say the 5:00 opening price is giving us an 86% probability out of the past 900 plus days or whatever the case may be all of these statistics that we used has derived from various market conditions and if these statistics are giving us 60 70 80 plus percent probabilities and not probabilities as in we're trying to predict the future probabilities as in it is happened out of X many times 80% 75% 60 % you can't ref that right it is black and white in front of your face and so this is why I tell people you don't need to know what the market conditions are you don't need to know the fundamental analysis you don't need to know this stuff if if the data that has came from the past of all of these random things that we consider quote on quote random if it has came from all that what more do I need to derive my my theory of the day my statistical direction of the day my trade for that day what else do I need and I say that as a joke online but I genuinely mean it what more do I need if I know starting at 8 o'cl when I can trade when that's my personal trading session but you can do this and build data around anything starting at 8 o' if price is above midnight what more do I need to tell myself I only have I only have permission to go short new Buck Loston what if it's a trend day I don't know that and neither do you I don't care what people say on social media if you could detect when a day is going to be a crazy Face Ripper day and we're just going to go to the moon and create zero pullbacks you would not be on social media you would not be out here saying look at this I told you so it was a trend day because guess what for every I Told You So what you're not being loud about is all the times that you got your stop losses ran and your face ripped off because we're ranging more than we Trend and all those I told you so ended up being stoploss hits four or five out of four out of five times of the week because we range more than we Trend meaning we come back and collect all of these probabilities throughout the day at least once one to two times right and again I tell people if you want to disagree with the fact that we range more than we Trend just plop on this midnight snap and put in opening hour one opening hour two opening hour three all of these opening prices and we come back and collect them all in the AM and then you put on put in these again for the PM and we come back and sometimes even collect those and we come back and collect the opening prices of the of the 8 through noon prices because we range more than we Trend if those statistics were low if those statistics were 20 30 40% then that means we would be trending more than we range because if these are the opening prices right here and if these statistics were low that that does in fact mean we do this more than we do this right more than we come down and collect these opening prices but that's what the black and white data says that's why you don't have to disagree with me and we don't have to argue because the numbers do the arguing for us right the the numbers tell us everything we need and so again I need to give you guys this context because a lot of people they'll they'll get so caught up in their own ego that they they they just they see black and white evidence and they just still want to be in disbelief and I get it it's it's kind of weird and different to what a lot of people are exposed to in trading but it's just it's irrefutable facts and so that's why you'll see me only stay on the one minute executing everything on the one minute because I it's not that I want to be willfully ignorant to the rest of the stuff or it's not because I I'm lazy it's because I genuinely am asking you what more do I need than statistically backed lines and if I'm above statistically backed lines I'm short if I'm below all of these statistically back lines I'm going long or I'm at least I'm looking for Longs I'm not just blindly clicking the buy and sell button and so now starting on Monday you can see at starting at 8 o'clock okay if I pull up my footprint right here and all the liquidity footprint is again guys I just call it this I I'm not I did not create this term and copyrght or I don't care okay I call it a footprint because people leave a footprint in time that they were they were able to make this giant wick on the 1 hour right and whoever has money I don't care how it's formed I don't care anything Whoever has the money and the ability to push price down in an hour's time to make this giant Wick here I don't care how it was done I just care that I can see it every single day they're leaving a footprint behind to tell me that maybe this is where the Catalyst towards midnight which is 65 to 68% of time is going to provide the sell pressure to then start getting here I could be wrong this could break through this and then we have to use this footprint but this gives me again objective areas everyone has the same Wicks I don't have to say yeah you use the wrong XYZ PD array here doesn't matter everyone has these same Wicks because I want to keep it stupid simple and this is going to give me objective context to see where price is most likely going to start rejecting and then fulfill this midnight statistic now I have my own proprietary way of entering which is these red and green wolves no they are not buy and sell signals this is the last thing I need to tell me that there's objective distribution towards whatever Direction I'm taking so in this case here I'm just looking for bearish distribution to the downside we have midnight below us so I'm not taking any of those Longs um or those bullish distributions you see on the chart and now right here right here without you guys even understanding any aspect okay I want the we got people in the audience here we got 48 people in the audience so I want you guys to answer this now that we have taken every statistic to the upside I don't care what this trend looks like you guys may already know what price did right let's just act like you don't even know what price is is data above or below price just say above or below in the chat Perpetual says lrnr 10 10 mini short see all right and then right here I know I know Perpetual is making a joke right but it's completely true he's making a joke about putting on more risk because now every data point is to the downside but it's completely true right we know when when to tailor our risk without going to any other time frame using any other PD array using anything else we now know when to tailor risk when to push down the Gas Pedal a little bit more not being a degenerate and just throwing you know whatever on and what I mean by increasing risk is if I am doing two micros to start my DCA process and by DCA process I mean if we do take on draw down and I I just start with two micros because I can give myself a budget per day of risk to use instead of trying to find that perfect entry then what I'm going to do is if we do take on draw down right and then I'm like okay sweet we get another bearish distribution right here boom two more micros but it everything is taken out to the upside if all the data is taken out to the upside then I know okay well now I can put on maybe one more micro to start because if I'm a dollar cost average type of Trader and I'm expecting draw down to then add to my position to get a better entry but in this trade right here there's no data telling me that we're going to go higher then I'm going to average in here heavier right so I'm going to do three micros whenever I get my bearish distribution instead of just two and so now I think we get a bearish distribution see we pump a little bit more so now we've taken everything to the upside now I'm just sitting on my hands I think I remember yeah we were streaming in the Discord this day too we're just sitting on my hands and then right here at 1018 we finally get bars distribution to the downside and then right here this is this was three micros three micros short for 0.13% again why do I do 0.13% because that is my statistical profit Target okay and so if I uh go to my X page real quick and I tell people this all the time you do not have to trade exactly like I do and I'm not giving you personal trading advice Financial advice anything like that but in my honest opinion with my experience and and how I trade if you're looking at my chart then on the recording I just now put it on my chart here too um this is the equation that I just came up with on what in my opinion makes a successful model that can scale okay and that's profit P equals statistical Direction okay so a direction that you have derived from statistics not what you felt not what you've seen in last week not what Cojack on online told you that he said trust me bro this happens 60 70% of the time no you have seen it for yourself black and white data that this happens x amount of times out of this much data that you have you know deemed to be good for you right in my opinion I'd like to have a good chunk of time at least two to three years of consistency of a certain direction and then you take that ins sample data and compare it to out of sample so if you took three years of data to give you a statistical uh probability of XYZ then you take that and you go to another chunk of time of 3 years that's your quote unquote out of sample data and you want to cross compare the two right and it's like okay sweet the out of sample data gave me a 67% and the in Sample data gave me a 66% okay it's roughly in the same you know ballpark of consistency that is true Edge when you can take your Edge your model compare that to something of what happened in a r ROM time and you're still getting the same level of consistency not performance consistency of that direction of that entry whatever you're basing that off of and that is a statistical Direction then you combine your statistical Direction with how you manage risk okay so in this case here I'm dollar cost averaging with a daily risk budget just like how you give yourself seven eight th000 bucks a day to lose get trying to find that perfect entry and then you get death by a th paper cuts you get stock out four five six seven times you're like okay I'm either done or I'm just going to be a de and blow the account right but either or you give yourself a Max loss based on that dollar I'm doing the same thing but instead of trying to find the perfect entry I'm scaling into my positions using objective distributions based on my way of entering okay and so then I combine that with my direction and then once both of those are combined I'm not shooting for the entirety of the move I'm not shooting for midnight so I'm not shooting for the majority of midnight I'm not shooting for this entire move I'm shooting for a statistical profit Target of 0.12 to 0.13% because that is what I have calculated based on researching this and studying this and building hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of back tests I know that I can get roughly if you really want it's like around 3.32% right depending on obviously the distance away from midnight but this is like you can get a pretty good amount from from Trading towards midnight but I know if I want the highest probability and shoot for cash flow not these giant moves not home runs just nice consistent base hits that add up every single day I'm going to shoot for 0.13% that's my statistical profit Target okay so now now that I gave you guys the context of everything I'm going to go a little bit faster but I just wanted to let you know you know my thought process everything before doing it and so you see right here now I want you guys to take note of this I'm not bragging this isn't saying look how great my trading style is look how great my indicator is this is no I'm not doing that but I want you to take a look at this trade here and I did this live in front of many people in in my Discord uh Monday last week we took on like one point of draw down right if you were to put a risk to reward tool on this specific trade right here I took two points of draw down two points of draw down for 25 points or 0.13% right and if you were to put a risk to reward tool on this you would literally think that I'm lying right you you would be like there's no way because other times I will do a trade that you would have thought I short at the absolute bottom right I go I go into a short and immediately take on draw down boohoo I'm doing two M two micros right and then we take on some draw down and then oh sweet I get another bearish distribution right here well guess what here's my first position here's my second position because I'm averaging into my position this midline right here represents what my average cost would be and so now my average cost instead of down here would be here and now my my statistical profit Target is being moved with my average cost this is another thing people get wrong about dollar cost average is they want a dollar cost average into a position but maintain original profit targets because again guys you hear people say this all the time there's so many negative things people want to say when it comes to dollar cost averaging but they've done it in the wrong way like you can't tell me vehicles are bad after you've wrecked seven Vehicles when you've not even understood how to drive the car right you can't just come here and say hey that that car is bad you shouldn't drive cars because I've seven well do you have your license well no but cars are bad it doesn't make sense you didn't know how to use the tool and so now you're blaming the tool instead of yourself because you failed to educate yourself around the tool before using it so you can't just come with a predisposed bias and say this way of managing risk is bad because you have had a bad experience with it but you've never actually took the time to learn how to properly use it because guess what dollar cost averaging can terrible but you know what's very is a lot of people will say dollar cost averaging will get you wrecked but guess what else gets people wrecked what 90% of the world tries to do is pick tops and bottoms and get death by a thousand paper cuts they're going to short here with a tight stop and get wrecked Get Wrecked Get Wrecked Get Wrecked and then by the time they get one well yeah looks like they caught the top but they got death by a thousand paper kits over here maybe they maybe they end the day with one R after losing seven right or they it it was just genuinely a red day and they kept on getting stopped out I don't know but single entry single entry trading it can can be just as dangerous if you don't know how to respect it right so there's no there's no better strategy I'm not even saying dollar cost averaging is the best I'm just saying for me and for how I trade and finding peace on the charts this is the most efficient way for me and the most stressfree way for me to manage my risk and just use statistics because the statistics are going to be that way because they are that way right they are 67 80% because they're 6070 80% there's no if ends or buts about it and so when I move my profit Target with my average what I'm doing is now price is having to move less real estate okay so from here to here is now way less than from here to here right and so now price only has to move to here to make double the money down here for Less distance and a better entry it's just math right it's just math and so now that we so and why did I go through that entire tangent is because I want you guys to understand for a good amount of Trades that do happen like this there are some trades that do take 50 60 70 points of draw down maybe even more and I build a really POS those are my home run trades those are my trades where I build a position we finally get that statistical price movement towards my statistical Direction and now my trade is worth a really good amount of money or I hit a stop loss or I hit my Max loss for that day and I'm not meaning Max losses in a prop firm I'm meaning Max loss that I gave myself for that account and so it's it's it's that simple like I'm either going to bed with this much being down managing my risk or I'm going to bed this many dcas up from however I'm trading statistics so now we are going to now this is something uh this is something pack specific and so let's break down the statistics we've used so far we used midnight we used Opening Our prices and what I mean by that is right here we've used the statistics all the way from 1 2 3 4 5 6 7even and all you got to do guys is take the midnight snap go to the hourly time frame to pull you know 900 plus days and then cycle through this opening hour you can just do this opening hour one and then it'll uh refresh give you a new statistic you can see right here in the past 11 days it's 60% whatever the case may be right you're just going to update it and then these lines right here that's all these are this isn't a part of the midnight snap this is just an indicator uh one of our pack members uh created and then I'm just writing whatever that statistic is in here and I'm putting it into the indicator here that's just showing the the opening prices and so you can see right here like look at this every single one of these opening prices the the retracement from 8 to 11 for for 2 o'clock is 68.9 70 71.7 78% 99.9 obviously you're going to get a 99.9 from 8:00 retracing to the 8:00 the only only reason I keep the 8:00 right here uh because it's pretty much a 100% is for the very very very off chance and you'll see this very very rarely sometimes we'll open at 8:00 and we genuinely will not retrace for quite some time well now guess what you have a very rare but sometimes happening 100% or 99.9% probability line uh underprice you best believe I'm not taking Longs against a 99.9% probability I will Happ sit on my hands and wait for a short opportunity if uh if that if that does happen so now at this point uh statistics we've used again midnight Opening Our prices um by this point we've already no we haven't gone that far yet and so now at 9:30 we've also created another statistic so let's bring up 9:30 so 9:30 right here to 959 all right so from 930 to 959 I tell people this all the time too we create another set of probabilities okay from 9:30 from Market open to 10 o'clock and what is that is you can go into midnight snap I'm not going to do this to save time from 9 to 10: if you put 9 to 10 in session and then uh opening hour you can choose anything 1 2 3 4 4 five six doesn't matter you're going to find that in the 15minute increment of time right here minute 30 and minute 45 is the highest minute 30 is the highest and 45 is the second highest and what does this mean from 9 to 10 it's saying 9:30 to 9:45 so 9:30 to the end of the hour of that candle is the highest probability of retracing every single one of these opening prices or at least as many as we can now obviously you can see right here starting at 30 we only retraced uh five four and six okay out of all of these I'm not saying they're all going to get hit but they all have a very high probability of at least that's where the motivation for price is starting at Mark at Market open so that's another cool little statistic that you can add where it's like okay if we're overextended above everything you know starting at market open what you best believe that these opening prices now have an even higher chance in that 30 minute uh time window of retracing as many um as we possibly can so then we'll we'll write this here so Market open specific we just do that for probabilities for Market open and so now uh back to this right here is we have um some some cool stuff that specifically with the with the pack we we use to kind of fine-tune our Edge and so you can see starting at uh what was this we had a 100 100% probability at 10:00 and that was this short right here for 05% this was a distribution short that had a 100% probability attached to it um and then we had another one at noon I think yeah then we retraced to midnight and then at noon we had a 100% uh short entry Aid and so this is not the entry a where it's a little bit lighter and so this was the one that I took right there boom so this one which is the brighter one had a 100% probability attached to it and that one was right there 05 and I think that was the the end of the day for that one let's move on to the next day now this recording is already 26 minutes again like I said I only wanted this to be like 30 45 minutes tops so we'll see how far I get in the week around like 35 minute Mark all right uh six seven okay so let's break down this day again all right so with all this context we got 48 people in the audience I want you guys to walk through this I'm going to ask you all questions and I want you to answer because again the participation when we do this live it really helps people even if you get it wrong right it helps you learn because now you remember because you had the enourage to answer and so starting at the end all right starting at the closing of the 7 o' are we above or below midnight so in the audience just say above or below this yellow line right here is midnight I want to show you guys how stupid simple we're going to demonstrate how stupid simple treading with Statistics are nobody in this audience has has watched hours and hours of of NASA Science degrees all right no one took College for statistics no one's mathematicians uh Johnny above season above Big O yeah exactly right we're above midnight open okay so now we need footprints that are going to be so do I need to find bullish or bearish Footprints okay if we're above midnight open and we know that the statistic is 65 to 68% probabilities do I need to find a bullish or a bearish footprint right bearish it's that simple right because why would I need to find bearish I need to find bearish because if we're looking for shorts towards midnight I'm not going to be sitting here finding bullish Footprints it makes no sense it's just going to give me analysis by paralysis right having 70,000 footprints on my screen and so starting at 7 o'clock I'm going to take this Wick and I'm going to draw it right there and you see how it's interrupted by a candle body and so what I like to do is just keep this here there's my footprint and then just in case this breaks I'll draw like one more that's closest to price and so that's this one and you see how this Wick also comes up and overlaps with this Wick right here and so what I'll do is instead of drawing this one this one and then this one and then this one all separate I'll just cover all of these Wicks until it's interrupted by a candle body and you see how this is interrupted by a candle body here and so this is where I'm going to stop and then if I have to draw another one right if we do break I don't even know if we do I don't know then I would draw this one but let's just draw two for now all right then we're going to go to the one minute this is everything I need right here all right so starting at 8 o' you can see everything datawise you can see all the probabilities all right so now just with I don't care what we're going to do even know what we do I don't care what the trend looks like so for everybody in the audience is this setting up to be an extreme like would you put more risk on if you were tailoring your risk to data or normal risk so just answer in the den chat higher risk or normal risk exactly more risk right you guys are answering this without understanding any indepth level of why or how or any of this stuff you're just seeing lines on the screen with Statistics backed by them and if all of the lines are below then what more do we need right what what else do I need to and I also have context on where this cell pressure is most likely going to be cat and it it couldn't it could not happen right and we also can see over here look at this at 10:00 we have a 100 100% hit rate with our Quantum flows again this is stuff pack specific um but if we get a bearish statist if we're still here by 10 o'clock and I get be statistical Direction you best believe I'm going to put even more risk on that so let's see what happens so we come up here we come up this is not these little darker rules are not uh the entry that I use for midnight I use my entry AES so we're going to wait for look at this by 9:00 we're still getting statistical bearish Direction Boom first entry right here at 9:35 and guess what happens at 9:30 to 10 Again 9:30 10 o'clock 9:30 to 10 o'clock you can see this just like we talked about earlier highest probabilities of retracing in this window as many opening prices as possible so now you best believe I'm three three micros deep and we hit full take profit in a single candle 0.13% 25 points one single candle zero draw down okay and then now if I get another short opportunity you best believe I'm going to take it especially in that time window why because that is the highest opportunity to retrace and we F we didn't do anything again because these are not magic eight balls these statistics are not predicting the future they're just telling us what has a high opportunity chance of happening um most days and so in this day here we didn't retrace any of them but guess what we had the highest probability time window of at least attracting towards it and you can see we did that we captured 25 points we had in this entire window we had from this the first bearish candle all the way down to the the Valley of this move 71 points of motivation to at least try this is why I tell you guys I shoot for statistical profit targets because I don't know if every single day the statistic is going to hit exactly where I'm shooting for but I do know that we can at least make motivation towards the data okay and so then right here 1011 05% 10 points again this is why I fo at the mouth for 10 points and 25 points because I don't have to sit here and try to capture this whole move I can easily with a cash account prop account eval account whatever 10 points is still 10 points right of of uh and and then I tailor my risk to whatever we see here if I see that we're overextended still above all of this data I'm putting on more risk on my minis here because I use minis with my uh with my distribution trades and then we had right here 1050 1050 remember what I told you guys 1050 is the highest probity at 100% right here at 1042 a 100% probability of the darker one which is the Quantum flow Quantum flow 05% and I mean look at that in starting the first trade right here to the to the last trade an hour and 10 minutes and this was 25 35 45 points right okay let's move on to the next day all right again are we above or below midnight are you are you bullish or bearish just say in the chat bullish or bearish um Aloha if the 10-point position moves against you are you taking a stop loss or DCA um time again well yeah yeah because I'm still giving myself room for that trade to Breathe Right like with One Mini I can take 3% draw down before that's around starting to get to my Max loss and I know because my statistics of how I enter again I'm speaking everything from my specific way of entering I know that it average on average takes about 0.23 to 0.25% draw down like it can get if it wants to get that deep so that gives me enough room if I am dcing into it or if I do get a better entry I can put one additional contract on but obviously that's still I'm still keeping my Max loss on that trade so it's never going to be I'm never blowing an account in a single trade right people hear Max loss and they think that I'm like blowing an account in a single trade so when I when I'm using that I'm still taking into account what my average statistics are and so if I want to do higher risk if I want to put on more risk and I want to use a mini I can take on3 to. 35% before that that trade is a is a loser and hits my Max loss for that trade or I let the trade breathe and it comes back to my statistical profit Target right there's there's a lot of scenarios that can happen and so it's that's uh yeah but most of the time it's it's usually a oneandone stop loss or TP with with one One Mini um okay so you guys you guys answered bearish right and why why did we answer bearish we answer bearish because we're we're above we're above midnight it's all we got to do it's all we need I don't care that we're pumping I don't care how crazy bullish this looks because statistics say we're still going to come here 65 68% of the time so why do I need to worry about anything else me worrying about anything else is only going to over optimize my entry over optimize my way of trading and I don't need over optimization I just need consistency and so we get a d our first entry right here look at this we have uh right here look at this I remember this day remember remember what I said earlier when 8 o00 gives us these random little little OPP opportunities of uh showing showing the hand of that 99.9% so we came down and the reason why I only did two micros right here was we were in between data right we I was shooting for 0.13% now remember what I told you the first two midnight trades took on zero draw down I think one of them took two points of draw down okay because not every trade has to be a picture perfect risk to reward I don't care what your favorite person online says not every trade has to look like this as long as your portfolio is operating at a positive profit factor and a positive expectancy it doesn't matter what a single trade looks like in terms of a risk to reward it does not and so if the majority of my trades look like this and then for the off chance sometimes my trades look like this that is perfectly fine because guess what they average out at a very positive profit factor and that's all you need okay so in a situation like this and this is why I wanted to highlight it is look at this we had an 8 o00 99% probability of dragging price at least up to here at least up to here and that's exactly what happened we took a short here instantly went into draw down came up into this footprint that we drew from the one hour Footprints and then within minutes because I think this was PPI right if I'm not mistaken we we hit full takeprofit and look at what happened with the news candle because people were even asking me this day I remember I think uh I think I forgot who it was but I recognized profile pictures I think somebody in the audience um they even replied to one of my one of my tweets and was like are you taking a trade before PPI well yeah absolutely I'm not trading the news at all I'm not trading news I'm not sure in thinking I can predict what this news candle is I'm just going with the data right so you best believe I'm going to take two micros and still short because this candle as scary as it looks 116 points I can easily take that draw down if it happens if we get a whip or whatever because my stop loss isn't like this right I'm not my stop loss isn't going to get Wicked out or whatever whatever you want to call it it's not going to do that because I'm DCA into it and so even if we did get a crazy scary candle I'm just getting a better position on the way back down right or I'm hitting my Max loss that's all that can happen it's just a freaking trade John Rambo he says some other funny words but he just says it's just an effing trade and that's all I'm thinking about every single day it is just a freaking trade people want to sit here and over optimize how they trade because of news but news is a constant you are always going to have NFP Friday CPI PPI inflation fomc you are always going to have news events so why in the world are we so scared and we're so fearful we're and we're always just acting like everything is so just random we're just like oh no it's news today oh God batting down the hatches what are you talking about this happens every week almost we have two to three red red folder events it is literally a a constant that you are going to have high impact news events every single week almost there's very few weeks where we barely have little to any red folder events so if you're basing every single day off two major things everyone complains about what's the two major things everyone complains about in trading it's choppy and there's news but let guess what ladies and gentlemen we range more than we Trend so there's annoyance number one that people constantly wh about like a baby is it's choppy and number two is people whining about the news events but it's it's happening every week see you might as well stop being a whiny baby and you might as well just get good at what is happening every single day Monday through Friday or Tuesday through Friday if it's a holiday weekend and just get good at what H what the market is giving you 70 to 80% of the time which is ranging markets versus trending markets and high impact news days versus non high impact news days all right so now going into uh going into Wednesday we uh we had a 100% probability of of 10 o'clock we took out every single every single opening price right uh yeah all the way from one one one o'clock and then was this the day we had let me see I think this was the day we had Asia right or am I wrong we had Asia retracements one of these days that really really hit oh yeah right here look at this this was the day so another statistic and we're going to bring this one up right now and Mark it down is the Asia statistic Asia 1930 to 2030 closing range and what I'm talking about here is right here so from 1930 to 2030 we have if you look historically 85 to 89% depending on your start time anchor of measuring this 80 plus% probability of retra in the opposing side of this of this uh 1930 to 2030 Asia range okay and so when you see that it's left open going into New York this is a very important level this is a very important statistic right because this line right here has an 80 plus percent probability attached to it and look at what happened we broke to the downside right here we broke below it meaning now we're due to break to the other side of it 80 plus perc of the time and look at exactly what happened at news at new and this was another reason I did two micros right here is because not only do we have a 99% uh retracement to 8 o'cl we also had a freaking 80% right here so I I knew I was like okay well I can't I can't do three micros here there's still some data up here that needs to be cleaned up and so uh that was that was that day and then I think we got a a distro yeah yeah we got a drro right here at 9:34 all right so now here's the next question for the audience this one's going to be a little bit little bit you got to do some thinking here why was this 934 short a very high quality short somebody let me know in the in the audience uh had long long order limits at the furthest downside statistic and murder there you go nice nice um Trader Scott I'll get to your question after this season data below above all open hours probability said it should reach exactly exactly exactly and specifically the main key word I was looking for was the market open statistic okay the market open open specific open uh open hours which I think you guys were were alluding towards so right here 9:30 to 10:00 I had bearish distribution at 934 and look at exactly the time window we were in right we were in even though we retraced all the opening hours here the statistic does not care when not if you measure from 9 to 10 and it shows you these high probabilities from the the 30 and the 45 minute that's a new set of Statistics right just like how starting at 8:00 I don't care how many times we retrace midnight back here I care about what the statistic says we're going to do starting at eight because that's what it's measuring that's what it's it's telling us okay and so same thing right here I don't care how many times we retrace right here starting at Market open if we're overextended once again above all of these opening hours you best believe shorts are or my go-to that's what I'm looking for and so we had an 05% high probability short right here and then we get another one right here at 943 went right back in now I think I took this one I took this one because we were flashing bearish with my entry a and uh people people was calling me a cheater in the Discord but either way this was an absolutely beautiful short and I took it because we we still had an 80 plus% probability attached to it um with the quantum flow and we were overextended above everything going into Market open and then literally Market open just hit my TP and so there was like 30 there was three different major high probability shorts this day in addition to the uh midnight open and that's how the day was we were done again uh depending on the last trade you took here anywhere between 1 hour 150 anywhere around here done for the day and then let's move into Thursday something here so when going for 10o moves you you are switching from a micro to a mini I get the risk has to be managed the same but trying to clarify yes and then pocket says yes because they are smaller Market grabs the 10 points and we are using data to get high quality movements to enter the trade we are taking higher risk and going with minis for dist moves exactly exactly now I see how Austin gets those Banger days yeah because think about it right right somebody made a joke on Twitter the other like forever back I I just love referencing this because they were like dude NASDAQ moves 10 points like it's nothing anybody can grab 10 points well can they because I don't think so because you still got to have some probabilities attached to when those are going to move so it's like if I can get 10 points in a very when all statistics are lining up and be done in an hour two hours three hours of trading and I can make the same amount as you trying to capture I don't know 600 points right with two three micros well that's great I'm glad that you can do that but I'm just trying to find peace on the charts I'm trying to be as stressfree as possible and for me I find less stress and just risking a little bit more for smaller price movements that are attached to high statistical outcomes versus capturing a large move trying to find that perfect entry to capture that large move with and making the same amount of money right because we've seen this all the time right people will try to capture these large moves and then guess what because price doesn't move in a straight line most of the time you're going to get this right here well people they'll try to do this the tight stop and they'll capture this large move just for it to come come right back on them right and then tag him out and then they had they were up 300 plus points 200 whatever the case may be like there would be up tremendous amounts of money that they could lock in this is the the joke that I make where I can't pay my bills if I were to call the electric company and say Hey man can I pay you in 9 R they're going to laugh at me what are what what are you talking about is this a new currency is this a cryptocurrency what are you trying to sell me here no dude I made I I had a trade that went 9 R can I can I pay my bills in 9 r no your your electric bill is 130 bucks You Gotta Give me 130 so so instead of trying to sit here and and watch this trade go tremendously in your favor just to come back and either hit you hit your stop or maybe you you you put your your stops from here to impr profit which is great but like just take that move and and move on right if if if you can get a consistent I don't know 100 points 50 points from the market guys that is that is a gift so use it I I think ptfx he was he's a member in the Discord he said this one time he said dude you've opened my eyes to how we trade because if I went like if I went back on all of my trades in the past x amount of he said forever ago when he first started if he just took every think of every single trade and you seen yourself going 40 50 bucks in Profit just for to lose that trade but instead of losing that trade you took that 40 or 50 unrealized gain and turning it into a realized gain how much money would you have made like it's it's just easy money right like it's it's not easy but take the loow hanging fruit you know we as retail Traders we are not able to know when this bottom is going to happen when this top is going to happen we can have very high guesses but none of us actually know I don't care who says what none of us know when the bottom and and tops are going to be and so if I am accepting of that then I'm just trying to get a portion of this in profit move the statistical profit Target of what most most likely happens most of the time so now moving into Thursday same thing right we're below midnight this day so I'm looking for bullish distributions we are in a bullish footprint now look at this day compared to the other days of the week starting at 8:00 where are we at we're in between data we're in between the statistics and so this day is an amazing opportunity to see guess what today's not the day to put on more risk and look at also what happened we literally were within points of midnight and we got a bullish distribution right at 8 o' we were 2.5 points for midnight so I will ask you guys if you want to be a statistical Trader and only shoot for high probability price movements am I just going to have two brain cells and say well but profit targets 0.13 okay but if we have midnight that gives us statistical price movement statistical think of it like a magnet if this magnet is at is its strongest from 8 to 11 do I want only a a ninth a tenth I said a ninth a tenth of my profit to be covered by this magnet absolutely not I want the majority and again people are going to be like well how many points it doesn't matter stop thinking too it's not that difficult it's not that that deep right I just want a good portion of my profit to be covered by the magnet that is take me to my profit and so in this case here these are very rare these don't happen a lot if I get a trade right before midnight like within points I'm just going to minimize my profit right I'm just going to minimize whatever my target is to wherever like the closest or shoot for just 05% because I know 10 points is very very high with with the way that I trade and so I was okay doing two micros two micros remember remember all these home run trades we had Monday through Wednesday and then in this day here you're you're going to be like Austin you're excited to trade with two micros to make what 30 40 bucks 35 bucks you best believe I am because this is managing risk now later in the day you're going to see we come and hit 0.13% like it's easy but still I'm okay with that because I need to know and be mature enough and disciplin enough to know when to put risk on and when to take risk off when to just lower my risk because this statistic is still very strong this one o00 opening price is still 70 plus per probability so I'm just going to shoot for the lwh hanging fruit right and the lwh hanging fruit this day is still giving my portfolio moving up and to the right but it's just not going to be as fast and that's fine not every day is going to be massive home run days right and so we get 34 bucks two micros here right and then now we're moving into taking every single data point to the upside out we took the one o'clock 2 o'clock midnight we're coming into 10 o'clock here with a 100% probability uh strike rate from our objective entry criteria we're getting uh bearish right now but it's only 66.67 everything is below price so I'm not going to take that because it has a low strike rate and look at this I think this even still hits and I was okay oh no it doesn't okay and I was okay missing out on this right I'm only looking for the highest and so at this point I was either looking for a bearish entry a okay which is the brighter red ones that is bringing me towards the statistics or I'm just waiting for 10 o'clock I'm waiting for 10 o'clock to hit and then look at what happens we have news at 8:30 and look at every single statistic that took out every sing one of them every single opening price smashed in a single candle of that news candle and then we had um this day here we had Asia yep right here we had Asia low so 1930 to 2030 but to the opposing side remember the other day we were looking for the high and now we have a statistic right here giving us a 85 to 90% probability of coming down to here and again you would think I'm crazy you would think dude look at the high time frame Trend we're so bullish we're so bullish do you you really think we're going to move this much to here well that's what the statistics say I don't care what the high time frame says the data says we're moving here 85 plus% of the time so I'm still short I'm still bearish I have no other choice but to be and so we come down I don't care about any green position I don't care about any bullish whatsoever look at this this one even hits 05% I don't care that's not my trade to take and then we have is this a nine o'clock nine o'clock I think some people took this one I don't think this is a a short I took because I was now looking for long oh yeah this wasn't a short that I took because we were we had bullish statistical Direction so here's a perf example of me again waiting for the highest highest probability uh trade setups at 923 we still had an 85 to 90% probability of coming to here and so You' be like well Austin why didn't you take that short because I had statistical bullish Direction and so if I have contradicting probabilities if I'm contradicting here and here I just sit out I just wait for the highest probability trade to happen and so the highest probability trade to happen was and I was we were streaming this live in the pack is I wanted to see Asia low get taken out and which we did we took out we took out the 1930 to 2030 statistic and now the rest of the data is above because guess what happens guess what happens at Market open market open once again 9:30 to 10 we're coming back we're coming back to as many opening hours as possible from Market open to 10:00 and we have bullish statistical Direction for the hour of nine now we have everything on our side this short we had contradicting probabilities now in this window of time we have everything to the upside now that we successfully took Asia and then right here we get bullish distribution at 933 you best believe I'm putting two Minis on this long for 05% Price movement and we took maybe four points of draw down Five Points of draw down okay maybe a little bit more 11 points of draw down to make there we go right there and then I think we did we have one more I think we had one more long here because we still failed to retrace the rest of the opening hour so then we can't yep is this it there was a Quantum flow at 10 yeah I think this the quantum flow was the one I took here at uh at 953 because we had an 80 plus% probability attached to it and we were still Below in that high high uh probability window I think this was a long I took I could be wrong I could be wrong don't quote me on that one I think we still get another one yeah we still get another long right here too uh for 10 points because we fa to retrace one two and three right there so either way right you you still had a high probability long here or another high probability along here either way we were still below those those data points for 9:30 to 10 and so that's what kind of fed me the high probability Longs for this day all right moving into the last day we're at we just hit one hour on the recording so I'm kind of a little bit running a little bit longer than I wanted to but that's fine we can finish off on Friday all right do I have any questions while before we go into Friday any questions at all um Big O what's Nancy EU and Johnson range uh Nancy EU and Johnson Nancy the EU so the EU is just the the first 30 minutes of 3 o'clock to 3:30 in the John uh don't worry about it don't worry about the Nancy and Johnson range no I don't want to get you guys confused and stuff or we're going to keep it very simple uh did you do you take dros if you have data above and below no I want everything I want everything to line up right you seeing every single Dro we took in this in this back test or not back test in this review of what we did this week it all involved every statistic lining up uh bro for real at first I was like what the heck are they are these people doing now I'm 100% yeah yeah see it's like we're just tailoring our risk to data and now you're seeing it tops and bottoms always happen exactly at my Margin Call price points uh the hourly statistic data indicator is open uh yeah okay pocket got you with the midnight open you can do this style of trading but a crap ton of work and data goes into the statistical Direction indicator as you yeah yeah if you're talking about this over here this this has a lot of work tied to it there there's a reason why this is as good as as you can see here and again it shows you black and white data black and white data um so there's no making this stuff up but yeah absolutely Aloha um and and Johnny you're welcome fnc I'd love to have a five minute time frame back test session with you candles are Illusions that's it candles are Illusions guys yeah Alex dude uh we can do a back testing session later today I'm about to go hiking again but when I get back absolutely all right so let's get in for the recording sake let's let's do the last day here and then we can kind of discuss a little bit so starting at the close of 7 o'clock we are above midnight but ever so slightly so I think this day we I don't think we got a midnight retracement trade this day on Friday let me see I think we retrace yeah we retrace midnight at 8 o' and so now that we fulfilled the statistic of 8 to 11:15 retracing to midnight I'm uh at this day here I would and I even posted on X I was like hey I am uh I'm done trading for the week we had such a good week everything hit on point I'm okay just kind of sitting on my hands and just calling it a week and then guess what happens we fast forward we have because again look at this we retraced midnight I can't take distributions until everything lines up so this bullish distribution here is it's not a good trade because we have data below and data above and so now we keep on going into the day and look at this boom we took every statistic to the downside now if you're looking on my chart what's left what are what what's left statistics wise that now turns my turns my lights on has light bulbs going off in my head and I'm like okay now I can actually look for a trade if we're looking at just pure data What statistic has not been fulfilled wait for an answer I'm want to hear some ASMR coffee here 7 o' exactly the seven right here we failed to retrace it guys this this is an 86.2% probability out of the past 900 plus days we have retraced 7 o'clock 86.2% you think I'm going to sleep on that absolutely not scroll back and see okay do we have an Asia no because look we broke above Asia came back down hit the other side during Asia so we don't have Asia unmitigated whatever you want to call it unmitigated un retre doesn't freaking matter didn't hit right we don't have it opening we we come down here and we can see we're far extended below every other data point to the upside as uh as far as the retracements goes and so now my eyes are opened up I'm like all right maybe now we're looking for a potential high probability long look at the 8:00 8:00 is gray for the pack because this is a pack specific thing that we have here gray means there's no clear statistical direction for this hour based on what the data we have into it and so now I'm I'm I'm saying okay I'm either getting a bullet if I get a bullish entry a regardless of what time it is because I have statistics to the upside in my favor I'm taking along or I'm going to wait for 9:00 to say it's bullish statistical Direction and so then right here 850 boom 05% shooting for 10 points I take on a little bit of draw down 10 points and I'm done for the week this is the final trade that's all I need right 10 points last high probability price movement I don't need to trade anymore I tell people this all the time on Fridays I want to carry the momentum into next week I'm still going to trade my plan right if if if the day is set up to be extremely extremely high probability then dude I'm gonna I'm gonna take it yes this is recorded by the way I'm gonna post this on my YouTube channel but uh yeah right here I mean 10 points that's I'm good that's icing on the cake for my week but then you can also see if I were to keep on trading which some people in the pack did look at 9:00 9:00 does not have a statistical Direction it's still gray still gray out and then right here you get a bullish distribution at 934 because that 7 o'clock still wasn't uh retraced and so if you wanted to keep on putting risk there's your 10 points and look at where we came into ladies and gentlemen guess what what guess what also we we have 9:30 to 10:00 last 30 minutes retracing the highest probabilities of all of these opening hours and so this long at 9:34 would still be stupid high probability because we had 7 o'clock still at 86.2% probability we have the last 30 minutes of 9 to 10 trying to retrace as many opening hours as possible and on this day we hit all of them so again what else do you need and so in this day here starting at 8 o'cl we were either we were done I was done in 56 minutes some people was done uh hour and a half hour 36 and then I I I don't think we had any other trades this day uh we had oh I well I mean you you did look at this we had a 100% here let me replay that again if you guys didn't see so starting at 10:00 we had bearish uh statistical Direction so watch watch this you see how it's it's still everything is gray starting at 10 o'cl boom we had bearish statistical Direction all right we have a 100% strike rate in current market conditions of 05% being hit with our Quantum flow okay and so now if you still were trading which again you shouldn't be because this is just beautiful but whatever the case may be here was a short right here for 05% Price movement at the close of this candle okay 100% of probability of being hit took on some draw down boom 10 points and that was a 100% probability trade and we were above all of these opening prices with statis Direction being being bearish and so that was the week um and then the final statistic that I tell people and again this has nothing to do with me trading does not influence my trades at all and that's the weekly profile we see if it's if we do if we are in line to have a statistical bullish week we're going to make that Weekly low on a Monday or Tuesday if you take a look at today or uh this past week um Monday September 9th we Tech Al made the weekly low on a Sunday which is out of statistic um which was let me see Sunday was here and so we made the low here on a Sunday like I said it's it technically it's out of statistic but we made the weekly high on Friday which was inst statistic for if we do have a bullish week we're going to make the weekly high on a Thursday or a Friday and the low is going to be a Monday or Tuesday and so by Wednesday I seen that we were making structure even though it was a Sunday low above that Sunday low and then you can see Monday's low as we're still creating structure above it and so by Wednesday close a business Wednesday I was like yeah we're due for a bullish week and so uh by by Friday you know I wasn't surprised that we were going to make that week that new weekly high again has nothing to do with me trading this is me sports broadcasting on ESPN but you can see that happening week over week as well so that is it for the recording of this video uh if you guys got value from this like I ask all the time just make sure you like subscribe uh comment below if you want to see anything else and yeah there you go