Egocentric Bias and the Role of Luck in Success

Introduction

• Viral headline during COVID lockdown: "Nearly half of men say they do most of the homeschooling...three percent of women agree."
• Illustrates egocentric bias: people overestimate their contributions.

Examples of Egocentric Bias

• Authors of multi-author papers overestimate their contribution to the work (average sum of personal contributions = 140%).
• Couples' estimation of housework and problems often exceed 100%.

Causes of Egocentric Bias

• People remember their actions vividly, not others’.
• Leads to underestimating others' influence, including luck.

Luck in Success

• People often attribute success to hard work, neglecting luck.
• Example: Hockey players' birth month affects chances of success due to league cutoff dates.
  • Early birthday provides physical advantages that compound over time.

Role of Country and Circumstances

• Being born in a prosperous country significantly affects income levels.
• Example: People in Burundi have limited earning potential regardless of effort.

Skill vs. Luck

• Both are necessary for success.
• Example: World records often achieved with favorable conditions (e.g., tailwind).
• Model of NASA astronaut selection: even a small role of luck alters outcomes significantly.

Human Perception and Psychology

• People often overlook lucky breaks in their success.
• Entitlement issues: higher status individuals often attribute success to personal qualities.

Experiments and Observations

• Leaders in group settings often take more resources (e.g., extra cookie) due to perceived entitlement.
• Participants donating money: self-attribution of good fortune leads to less generosity.

Implications for Society

• Leaders often attribute success to personal qualities, contributing less to societal wellbeing.
• Acknowledging luck can lead to more empathy and responsibility.

Benefits of Acknowledging Luck

• Increased likability and perceived kindness.
• Can lead to greater happiness through gratitude.

Personal Anecdotes

• Success stories influenced by luck (e.g., meeting significant others, career growth).

Conclusion and Advice

• Believe in personal control over destiny but recognize the role of luck.
• Successful people should help increase others' chances of success.

Call to Action

• Idea to help others: giveaway of Snatoms kits to those who can’t afford them.
• Snatoms: a molecular modeling kit to counter misconceptions about energy in bonds.
• Promotion: 10% off Snatoms with code "giveluck", matching each purchase with a donation.