What should African leaders expect from Donald Trump as he makes his comeback? The continent hasn't been a top diplomatic priority for Washington, but as China and Russia expand their influence there, will Trump reverse this trend? This is Inside Story.
Hello and welcome to the program. I'm Mohammad Jamjom. The United States has lost some of its influence in Africa in recent years. Now, Donald Trump's re-election is raising questions about how his administration will deal with the world's fastest-growing continent.
The list of issues is long. There's trade, investment, aid, sanctions, and war. All of this as China and Russia make significant strides across Africa. Beijing has poured billions of dollars in strategic investments. And Moscow has built alliances to counter sanctions from the West.
So what will the second Trump term mean for Africa? And how will his transactional approach play out with African leaders? We'll put those questions to our guests in a moment, but first, this report from Katya Lopez-Hodoyan. Donald Trump's America First motto has some wondering where Africa will fit in his political agenda. As president, he often followed a transactional approach when addressing African leaders, emphasizing trade and investment.
We hope to extend our economic partnerships with countries who are committed to self-reliance and to fostering opportunities for job creation in both Africa and the United States. Africa has tremendous business potential. I have so many friends going to your countries trying to get rich. Trump considers China one of his biggest adversaries, and Beijing has made significant and strategic investments across the continent.
At a recent meeting of African leaders, President Xi Jinping pledged $50 billion in financial support in the next three years. China is willing to deepen cooperation with Africa in the areas of industry and agriculture, infrastructure, trade and investment. That includes minerals needed for renewable technologies.
Africa has about 30 percent of the world's critical minerals, and China has steadily secured deals for their extraction. Washington hasn't kept up. Faced with sanctions from the U.S. and its allies, Russia has also built closer ties with some African countries, particularly in forging security and military partnerships. There is also a worry Trump could cut down humanitarian aid. President Joe Biden has committed $55 billion to the continent, and Eastern African countries, including Sudan, faced with war and mass displacement, are among its main recipients.
Now much of Africa is waiting to see what a second Trump administration will mean for the continent, and at the same time, trying to prepare for the unexpected. Katia Lopez-Odoyan, Al Jazeera. for Insight Story. All right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. In Durham, North Carolina, Cameron Hudson, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank and a former White House Africa advisor during the Bush administration.
In Arusha, Tanzania, Solomon Derso, founding director of Amani Africa, a pan-African think tank that works on peace, security, and diplomacy. And in Washington, D.C., Ebenezer Obadare, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of numerous books on Nigeria and Africa. A warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on Inside Story.
Ebenezer, let me start with you today. What are African leaders expecting thus far from a second Trump administration? Thanks for the question.
I think many African countries will expect President Trump to follow the track that President Biden has adopted, especially after what happened with respect to the Ukraine conflict. Part of what happened after that conflict is that the United States realized that it's no longer business as usual with African countries. And the United States changed tack. It's been more differential.
if not at least respectful in its approach towards African countries. It's realized that African countries have needs that the United States, that it's in the United States interest to meet in terms of economic interest. in terms of protection of governance and democratic rights.
And it seems as if the United States is sensitive to that. If anything, many African states and many African leaders will expect that the United States will continue along that path. Cameron, let me get your take on this.
From your perspective, when it comes to Washington's approach to Africa during a second Trump term, what are we more likely to see? And what are we less likely to see? Well, I think what you're more likely to see is President Trump saying the quiet part out loud. I think that a lot of the interests and priorities that the United States has in Africa are pretty bipartisan, critical minerals.
We see the continent as the largest voting bloc at the U.N. So if the United States wants to be seen as a world leader, it has to be able to line up. African countries behind its vote at the United Nations.
It's a geostrategic location, increasingly with the Red Sea and the Atlantic Ocean being a border with the United States. So it sits across really critical trade routes. And then, of course, there's the rise of China.
There's the threat that Russia poses. And Africa continues to be a battleground for that competition. I think the difference will be that the Biden administration doesn't have the ability to do that. downplayed many of the U.S. national security interests.
And I think that that Trump will make it the headline. Trump will talk about our competition with China very directly, very openly. He will talk about the need for critical minerals in a much more open and direct way. Whereas I think Biden tried to temper a lot of these interests with talk of U.S. values, values around democracy, human rights, gay rights.
And I think that many times those talk, that talk of values doesn't resonate. particularly well with either the populations or the leadership of African countries. So I think there's potentially, you know, room for for the Trump administration to advance an agenda with Africa, not dissimilar to to the what the Biden administration did. But I think the tone will be very different. Solomon, what's your take here?
Which leaders thus far in Africa are thinking in more optimistic terms about what to expect from Trump going forward and which leaders are more downbeat. about a second Trump term and how will Trump's transactional approach play out with African leaders? So first, I think in terms of the expectations, it's true that many African countries, particularly many African leaders, are wary of being lectured about democracy, about human rights, more so in the contemporary global context where There are many instances in which the advocacy for respect for international law, for human rights, have not been consistently followed and applied internationally in various parts of the world.
And therefore the expectation is that more of a more autonomous... A way of going about engagement in relations between the two countries, including in terms of whether it is critical minerals or the geopolitical dimension of things, such as Africa's positioning globally. There is increasing recognition on the part of the continent that this moment actually offers. More choices, more options for the continent to not to be boxed into taking sides. So the expectation is that even in the context in which the incoming Trump administration would be, for example, open and public, overt about the strategic competition with China and Russia on the African continent, I don't think that many African leaders and indeed people on the continent would like to see.
a situation where they would be asked to choose between the US and other countries. If anything, the expectation is that there is room for complementarity between China and the US for them to actually advance a relationship. So this also has to do with, I think, increasing recognition on the part of African leaders, as well as the wider public, about exercising agency, that Africa is not...
just taking side either with this bloc or that bloc. That just like The U.S., African countries also would like to pursue their own interests, which sometimes coincides with that of the U.S., at other times coincides with other groups. Ebenezer, you heard Solomon and Cameron both mention Russia and China and how those two countries factor into all of this going forward. I want to ask you about your thoughts on how much will Trump's rivalry with China complicate things for Africa going forward? We know that.
China has invested deeply in the continent. There's a lot of analysts that expect Trump to pressure African nations to distance themselves from Beijing. And that might create difficult choices for countries that are reliant on Chinese infrastructure funding and trade. How does all of this play out, do you think? I think it's too late now to expect some African countries not to continue to do business with China.
I think many of them will continue to do that. I fully expect many of them to continue to do business with Russia, as it is their right. The previous speaker mentioned one important word. That word is agency.
It's one word that I think is going to be very important going forward. This is a golden era for African countries, right? They're realizing that even though many of them are economically weak, it doesn't mean that they do not have agency within the system.
If you look at what Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger... all those countries in Israel have done. Basically, they're giving an eviction notice to the United States, the fact that the United States is to leave to evacuate military bases from their countries. For me, it's an indication of the fact that they are realizing that they have agency. But here is the thing, agency also has implications.
Insofar as any or many of these countries decide to go with China or Russia, I think it's going to be important to realize that Russia and China also have interest in Africa. They are not just in Africa because they suddenly fell in love with African countries. They are in Africa because they mean business, they want business done. But also more important, they represent a particular way of life, politically speaking.
So any country that goes with China or Russia has to know that it's committing itself to a set... of terms and rules and principles, and it must be willing to live with those rules and principles going forward. Cameron, Beijing has made significant investments and strategic investments across the continent.
At a recent meeting of African leaders, President Xi Jinping pledged $50 billion in financial support over the next three years. Can the U.S. really hope to do anything to keep up with China after having basically fallen so far behind? Well, it's going to be a very difficult catch-up process for the United States. I think that this Lobito corridor that we have been promoting from the DRC railroad, from the DRC to Angola, is really the first foray into large infrastructure development along the lines of the Belt and Road Initiative that has made China so successful. That's the first attempt by the United States in many, many years.
to undertake a project of that nature. I think there's a real possibility to see a Trump administration scale those kinds of projects and pursue much more projects, essentially competing with China on the same terms as China in Africa. But here, again, I think it's going to be quite different.
I think the U.S. marketplace, Wall Street, and even average Americans see the continent as a much riskier place for investment. When you look at... kind of mainstream media here talking about Africa, it's typically about what's not working, right? It's about governance issues.
It's about disease. It's about, you know, civil war and the like. That's what captures the attention of U.S. elites, I think, with respect to Africa.
Unlike in China, which I think sees Africa as a land of opportunity, as a land to get rich. We will see if President Trump... with his businessman background and bravado, can motivate the U.S. business community to see the opportunities that others clearly see in Africa.
And it's not just China. It's the United Arab Emirates. It's Saudi Arabia.
It's Turkey. There are many great and middle powers out there now who are competing aggressively for investment opportunities in Africa. So Washington has lost out to a host of small powers and large powers alike.
Solomon, I saw you reacting to some of what Cameron was saying there. I'll let you jump in. But I also want to ask you about another country you mentioned a few moments ago, and that's Russia, because Russia has also built closer ties with several African countries, particularly in forging security and military partnerships. Russia now has a major footprint in countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
How much has that alarmed the U.S.? And would Trump... offer support to African countries in an attempt to push Russia out.
So in terms of the presence of Russia and the implications thereof, remember these countries that you mentioned, the central Sahelian countries, Burkina, Niger and Mali, they have faced enormous challenge in terms of their security. The trade that they are facing is basically has become existential. We are talking about countries that today... represent a region in the world that has become the epicenter of global terrorism, not just in Africa, but also in the world, in terms of the number of attacks, the fatalities that result from these incidents.
And in the face of such existential threats, the challenge for these countries has been to get the kind of security assistance and support, uh, either. Bilaterally from countries like the US or multilaterally, such as through the Economic Community of West African States or through the African Union. And then all the support mechanisms were available.
And therefore, what you have is basically countries that are left with no choice but to seek assistance from anyone who is willing to give it. And Russia availed itself. And therefore they just took it.
That is the kind of environment that made it possible for Russia to gain the kind of footprint that it has gained. It is therefore important in this context to think about when countries are faced with existential threats. If you do not do it at the US individually, at least it is possible to facilitate effective action through multilateral platforms within the UN.
African Union or or or or equals but importantly I think it's It's very important to understand this thing when we talk about African countries I think it's important to talk about African countries in the way we talk about other countries including countries in the West in the sense that often as You know Mentioned camera mentioned earlier on for example the imagination in the West does remains to be one that always portrays and imagines Africa as, you know, through the lens of security, humanitarian disaster, through critical minerals, through China, through Russia. Is it at all possible to imagine and think of Africa outside of these secondary lenses, but Africa on and of itself as an actor to be engaged? for mutual exchange. Cameron, I saw you. I think these are really critical points.
Sure. Solomon, I'm going to get back to you about one of those points in just a minute, but I did see Cameron reacting to a lot of what you said there, and I wanted to give him a chance to jump in because it looked like you wanted to, Cameron. No, I was just going to add about Russia. It's an open question how bothered a Trump administration is going to be. by the arrival of Russia on the continent.
We've obviously seen in other parts of the world the Trump administration and President Trump himself wanting to work with President Putin, wanting to find a way to accommodate Russia's interests and concerns, not just in Europe, but in other places around the world. I also think that he's going to have a kind of narrowly defined set of interests in Africa. And I don't know that... stability and security in Mali or Burkina Faso is going to be on his list of priorities. He may well be very happy to see Russia become mired in conflict in the central Sahelian states.
He may also be very happy to let Europe deal with its own immigration problem from the central Sahelian states and not think that that's a concern that Washington needs to inject itself into. So that actually might be a welcome change, you know, for African countries who have seen Washington inserting itself militarily and otherwise into into problem cases on the continent, but not being able to to resolve them. So this could be a welcome change. Ebenezer, you wrote a piece in August in which you said that African citizens are simultaneously distrustful and resentful of their governments.
And you argued in the piece that trust can be regained. And that one way would be through working towards changing the impression that political offices exist only for the acquisition of personal wealth. Do you believe that citizens of various African countries at this point believe that their leaders would work potentially toward this goal during a second Trump presidency? Working with somebody who is so transactional. I hope they do.
I don't think it's about who is in Washington or who is in the White House. I think the question here is, and I'm coming back to the question of agency, I think this is about who is in power in different African countries. I think many Africans, I mean, if you think about the coups that took place across the Sahel, in Mali, in Niger, in Burkina Faso, in Guinea, the field war in Guinea-Bissau, Young people came out onto the street. They were wrapping themselves in Russian flags.
They were ailing the coup plotters. My argument has always been, it's not because they love the military. It's because they're frustrated with politicians in power. The fact that there's been a leadership change in the White House is not going to change that. If a transactional president can help stabilize African countries, bring political accountability, especially among the elite, emphasize questions of governance and hold the feet of their little power, I don't think any African citizens are going to have any complaints.
Solomon, one of the things you mentioned a couple of minutes ago that I wanted to follow up with you about was humanitarian aid and also human rights. What would you expect from the incoming Trump administration when it comes to those two issues? Because especially when it comes to human rights, in his first term, Trump's approach to human rights in Africa was characterized by very much a lack of engagement on that issue.
How much might that impact the continent going forward on that and also when it comes to humanitarian aid? I think, look, when it comes to humanitarian aid as well as human rights, with respect to humanitarian aid, the U.S. has been a major actor on the African continent. So the expectation is that that would continue.
during the Trump administration. Where people have question is how that humanitarian aid would be used. Would it be instrumentalized, as you mentioned, for transactional ends and therefore it wouldn't be used as has been used previously?
Or basically the previous way of providing humanitarian assistance for people who are... really in need of that assistance would continue from the side of the U.S. That is really the critical question. On the question of human rights, I think perhaps I don't think that there would be a lot of expectations. In any case, during the current Biden administration, there has been too much expectation, but not as much delivery on these areas as well.
in terms of priority as well, if you think about it, where does Africa fit in the foreign policy priority of the current administration of President Biden or the incoming administration of President Trump? If you look at that from the perspective of resources that are allocated, staff that are committed to African fires, you would clearly see that there is an enormous difference between... the U.S. attention to Africa a decade or two decades ago, and the U.S. attention during the current administration of President Biden.
I really don't see how that would improve during the President Trump's administration. There would be certain things on which President Trump may be, as Cameron mentioned, very active and, you know, forward engaging, and those would be really helpful. on matters that may be considered to be of interest to the U.S., such as critical minerals and those economic-related issues, but on other aspects such as advancement of human rights. I think for many in Africa, there is a growing recognition that this is a matter that Africans need to increasingly see as their own battle and struggle that they need. to engage in.
And I think it's important to recognize that for some leaders on the continent, this would be an opportunity that they see, oh gosh, okay, with Trump, we can do business, he's transactional, therefore he wouldn't be bothered, he wouldn't bother us with too many requirements about human rights and democracy. You can imagine that those leaders would at this point in time be very happy that they don't have... you know, a call from the U.S. telling them about this or that human rights issue.
Cameron, we don't have a whole lot of time left, but I do want to dedicate a couple of minutes to Sudan. There are calls for Washington to start playing a bigger role in trying to stop the conflict there. How likely is that? Well, listen, I think there's an opportunity.
I think there's an opening, probably not so much with the end of the Biden administration. I think that Biden has too much of a mixed record on Sudan right now. He has a special envoy who seems disconnected from the leadership here, who's running around the region with a lot of energy, but has not really been able to get the parties to sit down.
Clearly, the parties to the conflict are not interested in a dialogue at this point or talk of a ceasefire. I think. Trump administration, you know, listen, they campaigned in the United States on ending wars.
And it doesn't have to just be the war in Ukraine or the war in Gaza that he that that the Trump administration ends. There's a real opportunity, I think, to end this war. It might not look like how the Biden administration would do it. I suspect that a Trump team will turn to the region and ask Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE to say.
You know, you are the region. You have an interest, a greater interest in this region than we do. But this war is bad for business. Right.
It is shut down 50 percent of the global commodity trade through the Red Sea. It is costing the African continent massively in terms of lost GDP. So this war is bad for business. It doesn't make sense. You need to figure out a way forward.
I don't think a Trump team will be particularly. invested in what kind of government emerges in Sudan coming out of this, which has been, I think, the sticking point for the Biden administration, demanding democratic civilian rule in the country. I think that a Trump team is going to be probably more pragmatic, looking for an end to the war and an ability to reach the 25 million plus people in need in Sudan, and then figure out later on what a successor government really looks like.
All right, we've run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. Thanks so much to all of our guests, Cameron Hudson, Solomon Durso, and Ebenezer Obadare. And thank you, too, for watching.
You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, Al Jazeera.com. And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. That's Facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story.
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