Hey everybody, it is Tuesday the 8th of April and I want to do something different here for some trade ideas. We're always told that when the market declines, what we should be doing is looking for the strong stocks and looking for relative strength. As I've pointed out during this decline, for the last month solid, I've been saying that the relative strength stocks have simply been the ones that people are just waiting to sell. And we've seen stock after stock, which has been relative strength, just completely imploding.
One that I saw somebody mentioning the perfect setup in today or a nice bullish flag was AEVA. And guess what? Here's what I think is highly likely for this stock. It's highly likely maybe we get a little bit of a bounce and then we probably come down here.
We spoke about RDFN a couple weeks ago and someone was asking about it right here. And then it pulled back, got a bounce, and then it's right back down. We're in a bear market. So let's take a look at some of the percentage leaders from today.
I've got a list of 1,282 stocks here. We're obviously not going to look at all those. We're going to start with, we just got them sorted from the biggest percentage movers.
Does this look like a stock that you want to own? It's got a declining 20, 50, 200-day moving average. And this looks like a nice little pullback in here.
But this isn't something that's going to lead the market higher. Spire Global, whatever this is, if you look at the weekly chart, just a complete piece of garbage. You don't want to own that stuff. The VIX doesn't count and that's getting higher.
Everyone's going to be talking about how high the VIX is. I'm just going to be talking about what's the SPY doing? How do I trade that?
CRMD, it's a broken stock. Can you get excited about this or do you think it's likely? What's most likely?
Is it likely that it's going to turn around and just lead the market higher with a stock that trades 3 million shares a day on $7 or do you think it's likely? that it's going to do this. I think the latter, not the first one. CNTX, it's in a downtrend, garbage.
TSLQ, well, that's the inverse Tesla. Next, even if this was to turn around, look at what a choppy mess this is. How about Grab?
Garbage, completely broken. CNR, getting a bounce and a downtrend. If you look at this and say that's the low. Look at what oil did today.
Oil is down under $58 a barrel. It was down 3% today. This is not going to lead the market higher. How about ALHC? It's up.
It's showing good strength, but it's most likely, if we come look at this in two weeks, it's probably going to be down here. This looks like a failed breakout to me. That's how it looks. It was already extended.
It broke out. It was sold into. From failed moves come fast moves. Well, would I short it? No, because the primary trend is higher and I'd rather just day trade things.
Unfortunately, I don't want to day trade, but that's what the market is telling me is the right thing to do. HCC, Warrior Met Coal, garbage, complete, terrible, awful. CVS, how do you trust a stock like this?
Let's look at the weekly chart. That is not going to be a market leader. Even as it rallies into here, it's rallying up into prior support.
That support is likely going to find a lot of supply of people trying to get out break-even. RTYHM, is this going to be a leader? It's not going to be a leader, but where has it come from?
It just came from 46 to 63. That's a huge percentage move. If this is going to be something that we can look to purchase, then how would we look at it? I think you would look at it like this.
Is that, you know... What is possible is something along the lines of this and then buy it here with a stop there. What's most likely is this, I think.
Again, we're in a bear market. Don't expect stocks to turn higher. Carvana. Does this look like a stock that's about to lead higher or does it look like a longer term top? If you look at the pattern of higher highs and higher lows, it's now lower highs and lower lows.
Let's look at some of the leading stocks. Well, Palantir is broken. Let's look at these weekly charts, SMCI.
I've been bearish on that all year, even with the little rallies in there. Maybe NVIDIA is going to make its next stop here before coming down to the anchor from this low. And it's just the path of least resistance. And these levels aren't levels to say, hey, I'm going to short and cover there. Because when you're down four weeks in a row like this, it's more typical that we get a lower high.
That's what I've been talking about in the semiconductors. I thought we were going to do something like this. Instead, we came straight down. This was what most likely, this was possible, and this is what we got. So if you want to risk your money thinking that it's just going to turn on a dime here versus maybe working.
its way down towards this level, feel free to buy Nvidia for your long-term account, but you can probably buy it a lot cheaper later on. Meta, broken. Apple, it's broken. Maybe it comes down to the anchor from the 2020 low where it found buyers in 2022. That could bring it down towards 150. Why not? It's possible.
It's reasonable in this market. AMD, one of the worst stocks out there all year. I've been talking about that over and over again, how bearish it is. Amazon, maybe it comes down to the anchor from the 2023 or is that 2022 low?
Doesn't matter. What about a Fibonacci on there? I mean, these are levels of interest.
They're nothing more. They're not action points. People who tell you that technical analysis means buy at this retracement, buy at this moving average, buy with a moving average crossover, they don't understand supply and demand. It's about supply and demand and looking at stocks and saying, who has control?
Who's gaining control? Who's losing control? How do I get involved in a low risk way for my account? T-Dub.
I was asked about that the other day. It's still moving higher here a little bit, but do you want to buy a stock that's up 250% and it's a $3 stock? I don't know what's going on in here.
I guess you'd have to know the story. SPSX, we know what that is. That's a short S&P 500. LOAR.
It's neutral at best here on the daily. SLQT stock in a downtrend that got a bounce temporarily. UMAC is a broken, you know, this was one of those drone names that every real.
And this was one of our first signs of true big speculative fever. This is what they call frothy. And we mentioned it back then in December.
It was nice to trade these names and it was easy to make money overnight. And we were talking about the big. the very large percent ATRs and how dangerous these stocks are.
And people only had thought that this was possible in here. They forgot that this happens. And now they're learning that. And it's a good lesson. You got to learn it somewhere, somehow.
I guess if you had to learn it in this cycle, it really sucks to learn it. But it's not unusual. VIK, is this a market leader? No, it's a broken IPO. How about...
BWXT, another broken name. So look at what we're doing. We're looking at the so-called market leaders here. These are the ones that are moving higher. MRCY, this one, it's neutral at best, most likely making lower highs and lower lows and going to break down further.
Inverse S&P 500 fund, EVLV, garbage, low price stock, below key moving averages. CYBR, I see a pattern here. I don't know if you see it. but it's pretty damn easy to see.
I would think that the next rally attempt, maybe up to here, probably goes down to this level. And then a rally attempt like this goes down to the next level, and over and over again, until we start to see the 200-day moving average flatten out. Lockheed Martin, it's absolute trash in here. Look at what it's been doing since the election, just hammered at the anchor from the election. So these names, that's a failed breakout.
That's going to take... I wouldn't be surprised if it took a decade to hit 620 again on that name. How about CEG?
A broken energy name. Remember when nuclear was all the rage? Hope you got out. GD, General Dynamics, broken, rallied up to the two-year anchor twice and got rejected this last time super hard.
I wouldn't be buying these names. CVAC, let the institutions accumulate these and create bases. And then if they start to turn from there...
every one of these stocks, not every single one of them, but they all look horrible, just horrible. IAG, it's a gold name. We can look at GDX. Is GDX a good buy? I don't trade this thing.
If you're going to buy it, I suppose you have to buy it now because you buy it down here because you can't buy them when they look good. Every one of these breakouts fails, not right away, but every one of these breakouts fails. and that's just the way that gold stocks trade. I don't trade them. They're nuts, and I'm not.
SGRY, garbage downtrend stock. It was up 10 basis points. So these are our leaders.
That's a takeover stock, most likely. This is what's so-called leading the market. This is relative strength.
Does this look like a relative strength? PANW, I don't know if Paul Pelosi sold his that he bought down here, but it's looking pretty ugly, USFD. Lower highs, lower lows. SMAR, that's easily a takeover target or stock.
FLGC, I should be deleting these. off my list because they just look terrible and you know takeovers are the only ones that are just kind of going sideways in here all of those were uh this was a win energy blade name we were looking at this one right over here on that breakout look you gotta sell you gotta sell when they break down you can't buy breakouts without stops because look at this garbage just complete awful um mcdonald's relative strength everyone's going to be eating you 99 cent meals, they say, so buy McDonald's. Doesn't look like the institution are doing that.
If they are, they're not doing so very aggressively, not in a way that it's easy to make money. Cash is a position. PWR, just garbage. CRM, garbage.
CAE, broken. This was last week's relative strength and it broke. Spot, it's most likely coming down to low 400s. KR, you know, it's...
you know, people have to eat, right? But still, we have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. So maybe keep an eye on this. But do you trust a name that's run up as it has like this in a bear market?
We had this one over here. And what did the peak look like? It kind of looked like this a little bit.
I just don't trust anything in this market. And I don't feel comfortable telling anyone that you should be buyers of stocks right now. I will let the you know, investing people who know nothing else other than to say dollar cost average time in the market versus timing the market and all the things they say.
If you miss the five best days of, you know, of the, uh, uh, market in the last 10 years, your returns would have only been 4% instead of 8,000% if you do it their way. Um, and I'm being facetious of course, but, and I always do it with the intent to educate and to be a little bit harsh sometimes to get you to recognize what you might be bullshitting yourself about. And by that, I mean, you might be thinking, but these are good companies. They're going to come back. The global order seems to have been broken and we're adjusting.
We're making a giant reset and it's being felt in the stock markets and it doesn't seem like the worst is over.