Transcript for:
Impacts du Déclin des Taux de Change

[Music] look the decline of the exchange rate is primarily in my view driven by what is going on in the u.s now so really the dollar that is increasing rather than the euro decreasing and the big driver of this is that that very lack the very different positions in the monetary policy cycle that the euro area and the us are right now we are very much out of sync in terms of policies monetary policy where the the u.s fed is increasing interest rates very rapidly this steps i think the markets are expecting uh nine uh times increases of the interest rate this year whereas in europe this is a lot more timid [Music] well inevitably all our imports become more expensive and of course in an environment of uh of high inflation it simply adds to it uh that's the case but i think i would like to remind our audience that the european economy as such is a relatively closed economy meaning that most of things that we consume we actually produce ourselves with a big exception of energy of course so in that respect we are not a small open economy we are rather a closed big economy and that means that the sensitivity to reconsumers of these exchange rate variations are very much controlled [Music] there's germany the netherlands uh italy of course the countries that are big manufacturing exporters outside the eu waters outside the eurozone in other words they are the ones who will benefit from the uh from this attractiveness of the euro right because european experts now become become cheaper and therefore the more attractive at the moment i don't see the movements and the competitiveness to be troublesome but it will all depend on the way on the conviction with which we meet the immediate challenge which is energy if we bring our heads together and we solve energy in the next six months all of this will be reversed in my view and the effect of the synchronicity of monetary policy will matter less if on the other hand we don't have a convincing answer to the energy problem that will affect our competitiveness and therefore that will be a very different story and much more troublesome for the uk economy