Overview
The stock market saw significant gains following Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders optimistic about upcoming interest rate cuts and favorable economic data. Major stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies rallied, while upcoming earnings and economic releases promise continued volatility.
Market Reaction to Powell’s Speech
- Powell's comments shifted expectations toward possible rate cuts, favoring labor market risks over inflation.
- The S&P 500 and major tech stocks surged, with Tesla, Amazon, and Google posting notable gains.
- Ethereum and gold also rallied, reflecting broader market optimism.
- Futures and Fed watch tools indicate a 76–85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
Key Technical Levels and Market Outlook
- S&P 500 (SPY) is approaching an all-time high near 647, with potential breakout and resistance at 650.
- Key support levels to watch include 643, 641, and 639.
- In the short term, market direction is uncertain but historically, rate cuts at market highs result in 50/50 one-month performance and 77% positive returns over three months.
Upcoming Earnings and Economic Events
- Major earnings this week include Nvidia, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Marvel, Dell, and OKTA.
- Nvidia’s report (Wednesday post-close) is highly significant for market direction.
- Notable economic data this week: Durable Goods (Tuesday), GDP Growth Rate (Thursday), PCE Data (Friday).
Stock and Commodity Setups to Watch
- Intel: Government took a 10% stake; key breakout resistance at $26.50–$28 and further at $30.
- SLV (Silver): Approaching breakout at $36; bullish momentum on interest rate cut expectations.
- Cracker Barrel: Potential sell-off if price falls below $54, with psychological support at $50.
- OXY (Occidental Petroleum): Bullish setup as economic stimuli could increase energy demand.
- Tesla: Watching for breakout toward $350; support at $340.
Momentum Plays
- UUUU (Energy Fuels): Watch for upside momentum above $10.75.
- BMNR (Bitmine): Upside continuation if above $56.
- BTG (B2 Gold): Potential breakout above $4.20.
Big Money Trade Highlight
- Over $1.1 million in call options purchased for PSX (Phillips 66), strike $132, expiring Sept 19, 2025, following strong uptrend.
Recommendations / Advice
- Monitor key technical levels and economic releases for short-term market direction.
- Use stop losses and manage risk, especially with high volatility and momentum trades.
- Stay adaptable in the short term due to mixed historical data after rate cuts at market highs.
Action Items
- This Week – All Traders: Watch Nvidia earnings and PCE, GDP data for major market moves.
- Next Few Weeks – Intel Watchers: Monitor price action at $26.50–$28 and $30 for breakout confirmation.
- TBD – All: Track SPY for breakout above 647 and possible resistance at 650; be ready for increased volatility.