the countless kind of op heads and media reports about The imminent collapse of Russia about Putin's imminent death and all these all these things all wrong and uh you know now people have got to face up to that and it hurts it hurts like mad because those damn Americans have done it again they've swept in and and taken charge of the situation well we're flopping around on our bellies like babies crying and wailing about how bad it all is grow up and actually have a foreign policy towards Russia that makes sense that works for Europe that works for Russia that works for Ukraine what so difficult about that hello everybody this is Pascal from neutrality studies and today I'm talking again to Ian proud Ian was a British Diplomat from 1999 until 2023 he worked in Thailand Afghanistan and Russia and recently published a book called a misfit in Moscow how British diplomacy in Russia failed today we want to discuss Europe's deep crisis over the peace talk that are on way between Washington and Moscow Ian has been publishing several great articles about this over the last couple of uh days and weeks on his substack and I can't wait to pick his brain so Ian welcome back nice to see you again Pascal it's nice to be back on well nice to have you back on because you've been really writing a lot and I would like to know in one of your pieces you wrote about the media meltdown in the UK and how the BBC is going nuts over this situation can you maybe expand on that a little bit and tell us how what is it like to read British media at the moment when it comes to peace talks or the the prospect of such well it's in a state of complete flux Pascal because for the past three years indeed actually the past 10 years since the Ukraine crisis started actually it's 11 years now now oh my God that long um the only thing that BBC Media has been allowed to print is kind of negative stories about how this is all Russia's fault and we should apply maximum pressure on Russia and we should not give them a blank check and we should hold them to account and all these kind of slogans and all of a sudden in one 90minut phone call President Trump has completely flipped the narrative and said well no we should talk to Russia engagement is the only way through the deadlock of this Dreadful War which has killed over a million people or injured them over the past kind of three years engagement is the only thing we have to do and so now the the British media are desperately trying to reposition themselves not quite knowing where to land on this having been saying the complete opposite for the past 11 years so it's a total state of flux right now in the British press and political establishment you also wrote that the first reaction was um equating this with a with a disaster right the that now basically the the the bad side is winning or seems to be winning because there's no more there's no more intent of defeating it is that is that narrative also as we speak on February 25th still still up and running yes even the liberal Democrat uh parties is talking about the kind of the um you know the sellout of zilinsky that's happened people are speaking about this as being a defeat that our approach has lost that somehow we've sold Ukraine down the river we thrown them under the bus all of these you know terms that British media is even repeating uh things that zilinski said you know that actually Trump is just spouting Russian propaganda and how could this possibly be happening it's a completely bizarre you know uh you know situation that we find ourselves in but ultimately you know that that repositioning is going to have to kind to work its way through because times they are changing and Little Britain there's very little we can do to stem that tide because as I predicted before several times last year in fact the Europeans will move before we do that will leave us yet again stranded at the back of the pack with the Americans leading the Germans and French coming in behind you know now that the elections are out of the way and us you know the Mad people at the back of the bus still cing and wanting things to to be the same and never change where do you think where do you think that this entire disaster is coming from is it is it a failure of policy that we're seeing now in Britain and Europe Continental Europe as well or is it really is it the logical end point of this insane media propaganda that we've been going through which I think to in to this extent we haven't seen at least not in my lifetime I've never seen such an extensive form of propaganda that is so divorced from any form of kind of verifiable reality the way that this war was reported about for the last three years it was it was a lot of it was F Pure Fantasy Land including the the North Korean troops including the Russians are running out of people including the Russians are running out of of of War materials and the Russians are about to collapse and the ukrainians are are are going to are going to Sprint to the going to win and Sprint to the Black Sea right all of this was Pure Fantasy and it was never it was never accepted or never never worked up that it was fantasy so are we seeing the failure of policy or the failure of propaganda well we're seeing both on the basis that uh propaganda has been our policy that's an important point to make right back it in 2014 as actually I pointed out in my book um you know we decided at that point in the second half of 2014 that we would no longer talk directly to Russia that we would have our conversations via the media we would push the things that we wanted to talk about about Russia and start a conversation with the collective West with the global South that didn't really work out but with anybody that would listen to say that Russia was wrong and we were right no more talking directly to Russia that was pointless so the whole you know Drive of propaganda came from the state itself even if before the Ukraine crisis started the British media probably had a an anti-russian bias actually what we've seen now this blizzard of propaganda over the past 11 years has been an article of State policy and it's important to understand that so so as policy is being found to have no clothes on uh so the propaganda is figuring out what it's going to do in the future because it has nowhere left to run yeah reality just hits hits back I I just wonder on the one hand I wonder how we got ourselves into this uh utter mess in in Europe and Britain and on the other hand what it means that it is again the Americans who are lifting us out of it it's like I mean on the one hand we've been letting got us into it and they're taking us out of it we've been pushed into it by America and now we're being left behind Again by the by the same ones I keep repeating 2008 the the Germans and the French didn't want to go along with promising NATO membership in 2014 and so on the Minsk process was supposed was underwritten by by Continental Europe right and then again sold out again and North stream as well so on and now it is America again that's running ahead of the pack and and is leaving Europe behind what do you make out of that well I mean that that's the that's the political cycle right and that actually shows that Europe doesn't have its own clear policy towards you know Russia that's durable that's durable you know in a strategic sense in terms of what they want to do with Russia that's durable in terms of how they manage constantly shifting us positions ultimately Europe needs to have a policy with Russia that is uniquely European that is immune from the regular kind of shifts you know when the Democrats are in power who basically hate the Russians to the the Republicans who have a more nuanced kind of position you know on Russia you know we need to kind of isolate ourselves from that and get back to having a European foreign policy you know with Russia that focuses on both sides respective strategic interests only then can we move on from this vicious cycle of the Americans come in us doing exactly you know what they want us to do and then falling foul of it later only to be rescued by them again I mean it's a it's a bizarre form of Stockholm syndrome in a way very bizarre um the the thing though is we are now seeing the nuances right in what used to be this Grand Alliance and I just before on also today I just talked to Andre cunov and he was saying he was making the argument in of his essays that the collective West also the way that Russia P perceived it or thought about it is not as collective as as it might be not as monolithic as it might be we are seeing that the all of these cracks now obviously and one of the important differences is a lot of Russians seem to be saying that the Americans are much less russophobic than the Europeans is that is that something that you would would also see this way or do you have another perception on that one um I I think there's a risk of massive generalization I think the vast majority of people in Europe you know have probably never met a Russian uh person probably ambivalent either way yeah if given the chance to actually engage with Russia would probably be quite open-minded when I speak to normal people about Russia they're fascinated that I have a different take on it from what they'll read in the Sun or the Daily Mail in the UK I think actually you know the the political establishment the media establishment is very clearly russophobic and you could say the same across large Parts but not all of Europe I think the position is more nuanced in Central Europe I don't think it's correct I just don't think it's objectively correct to say that the US is less russophobic you know than Europe the Democrat Party you know under Biden with blinkin and newand and Sullivan and all these Dreadful human beings were rapidly russophobic arguably more so Europeans we just find it strange now that that you know there's a new brand of realist Republicans people have finally been listening to the eminent people like John mimer and Jeffrey Sachs who actually say well whether we like Russia or we don't like Russia we have to engage with Russia and it's it's it's kind of its pragmatism and its realism more than necessarily Affinity that that we seeing right now right and there I mean there needs to be a Way Forward I mean that's the one thing that is clear now or do you think that in in the UK there's still a debate on whether the UK and Europeans the rest of NATO is able to continue the War I mean there is a threat when it comes to these like now say negotiations about normalization of us Russia ties and especially you know uh bringing an end to the Warfare in Ukraine there is a threat that spoilers emerge and spoilers can be minor players right is it possible that that the Europeans will be active spoilers if the process um develops in a certain way well we saw this kind of bomb attack in marsill against the you know Russian consulate overnight so kind of the the scope for spoilers you know is huge but but taking you back to your question I don't really think there is any debate in the UK about Russia policy maybe that will change on the back of K st's visit to Washington DC on on Thursday of this week I think you know reluctantly painfully and making lots of noise along the way the Europeans are inevitably kind of Shifting slowly their position to kind of line up behind the US I don't think they have any choice they can't afford to keep bankrolling the war into 2026 there's enough money to kind of keep fighting for the rest of this year if they really kind of have to but Europe just doesn't have the the the economic or the political Capital uh to support that if if the the Americans change their position you've seen the kind of results of the you know elections in Germany where the afd have come in a very strong second place you know very much kind of concerned about this self harm Europe has has um imposed upon itself in the kind of battle to you know punish Russia they punished themselves uh so I think you know that European leaders are are seeing that there's huge political risk actually continuing down this line in terms of you know their power base if they completely ignore what the Americans are doing right right but the question remains like what will how will how will Europe now or let me put it this way what is what are the lessons going to be that they going to going to believe to have learned because in my view Europe has also a track record of learning the the wrong lessons out of its history um how do you think that the UK Germany France are now going to deal with this new situation where um you know uh um um an new Accord with Russia might be might be ordered coming from the other side of the Atlantic well fed uh you know said after getting the largest share um in the German election that actually Europe needs to have its own policy and I think that's that's the change you know that needs needs to happen Lessons Learned are as we've just discussed Europe has become far too over Reliant you know on the us both in terms of the security umbrella uh you know but also in terms of setting the agenda of our relations with Russia in a way which have which has had catastrophic consequences for us Europeans so you the the lesson to be learned and MZ has already pointed out on day one One Good Start green tick um that actually Europe needs to kind of chart its own course you know with Russia and that means heaven forbid you know opening up economic relations again because you know I'm a firm believer that actually economic relations can help to moderate kind of political difficulties this ridiculous kind of uh self Haring cutting off of Russian gas pipelines which hurts Europe far more than it hurts Russia the the Avalanche of sanctions we need to kind of go back to drawing board with those and look at a plan to EAS them if a peace plan is is landed for Ukraine so but these need to be kind of European focused uh you know decisions that look at the long-term Strategic Benefit of actually a normalized relationship with Russia but isn't there a danger that the opposite might happen that the that the Europeans might decide yes we need our own policy and if the Americans normalize relations with Russia then our our independent policy is going to be that we don't do that and we will put 17th and the 18th and the 19th and the 20th sanction packet package because at the end of the day we the great continent are going to we can do this we can break Russia isn't there a danger that they might go this way especially because I don't see the big change in the elites okay we're going to have now a new German Chancellor but to me Mr Merz is even more belligerent and even more even less less um likely to find an accommodation with Russia the Mr the Mr Schultz I might be wrong but uh that's how that's how I perceive him so far and I think you're probably right but I mean there's something about having strength but also accommodation as well it's not necessarily a bad thing to have a strong policy as long as you're willing to engage it's the lack of Engagement that has been you know the difficulty over the past 11 years and now the Americans have stolen our Thunder let's see you know whether the Europeans actually kind of recognizeing the need for them to engage you know with with Russia you know as well yes it's absolutely possible for the kind of Europeans to continue with a self-defeating you know policy towards Russia where we completely cut economic ties at a time when the US is both reestablishing its economic ties with Russia and also plundering Ukraine's you know mineral wealth you know in the process there's a huge risk of us being undercut you know there as you know the Americans come in and steal all the all the you know the Bounty you know there is a risk that we say well actually even though you know the US has put $175 billion dollars into the war in Ukraine you know we will continue to fund you know Ukraine fighting into 2026 there is a risk that that's that would what that would happen too but how would we afford to do that because everything we've given Ukraine over the past year has has pretty much been loans macron and Trump disagreed on this in their press uh you know conference yesterday but the shift has been to Lending we've got no more free money you know to give how could we possibly fill the gaping pole for Ukraine to keep fighting so I think yes people can talk about this and I'm sure people will you know talk about these things but I think the political and economic risks of of you know the EUR Europeans going along are probably going to be weighed as is too high yeah and let's not forget the Europeans don't have the industrial base they don't have the military-industrial uh capacity to actually supply stuff I mean even if the Europeans said okay we're going to going to jump in and going to pay the next50 billion US do worth of of um of uh weapons if the US says we're not going to sell you any weapons then there's no weapons because the Europeans can't produce them themselves clear the americ let's be clear the Americans aren't going to do that well I see very little Prospect of the Americans not selling weapons uh but anyway let's see let's see what um what happens I mean I I think you know whether the Europeans wanted to pay that money or whether they wanted pass it on to the ukrainians as debt it's going to be a bad call because the politics of giving away another 50 billion uh you know Euros you know to to Ukraine G us way further on the Nationalist elements in Europe that are going right now particularly in central Hungary Slovakia Romania gosh they going to have elections again who knew you know what's happened in Austria recently you know Croatia as well was reelected to kind of more nationalist president so you know I think you know the internal friction that would be caused within Europe for a continuance of this policy would you know pose significant risks to the union itself but also of course to the policy's continuance so let's say the the the union comes out of this alive and well and let's suppose that the the setup the overall political setup remains what it is for you as a diplomat who worked in in in embassies if or when States decide to do an about face and reverse previous policy without trying to lose Faith uh how do you go about that what what's the most what would be the most um efficient way forward for Europe to change its policy without looking like it has its pants down uh well I think that's going to be very very difficult you know because you knowum has had the benefit of an election actually the Germans have had the benefit of an election too so let let's see let's see how Merz positions himself the others haven't had that you know benefit star you know was last year and he just imposed a more you know extreme ver of what the conservative party had been doing before him you know elections create great opportunities to BU bad news you know most political leaders don't have that benefit uh so I think they have to do it subtly as McAn was doing yesterday you know in the White House you know showing some slight areas of nuance and disagreement around the edges you know but essentially sort of coming round to Trump's position on Ukraine recognizing that there probably would need to be a ceas fire in the coming weeks and that sort of thing so be a gradual sort of uh shift of nuance in terms of positioning in any meetings that happen with Trump the fascinating thing for me because you know the the French are much more susceptible to kind of Shifting positions than the Brits will be how starma positions himself on Thursday this week when H ways of the British media have been accusing him of not accusing him of of pressuring him not to kind to sell out the ukra sell out the ukrainians so how he positions himself on Thursday is going to be absolutely fascinating I mean this this this strange treaty between the UK and Ukraine on the 100 year what is it Alliance that was on Donald ster right I mean that's what kind of what kind of stupid idea is that in it's completely meaningless I mean subject if get another one of my articles uh as well actually on that topic it's totally ridiculous um you know idea because no no agreement lasts for 100 years I mean a different government might just change that sort of you know agreement at moment's notice we're not going to give Ukraine 4 billion pounds a year for for 100 years no government would agree to do that so it was pure kind of virtue signaling and you know showing that that will support zinski uh you know come may even though he's very obviously on his way out you know so it's a it's a bizarre decision do you have hope that positive change might also come from within Ukraine I know that you You observe Britain and and and Europe more but did you do you have any indications that you know Ukraine might be able to help itself as well in this process because there are there are so many factions actually within the political process which is one of the problems why the ultra nationalist Nazi types were able to threaten their own their own leaders and and and you know chase them into into a um into One Direction um but do you think that this process might now play out in the reverse and that the peace oriented factions might actually gain a stronger hand inside Ukraine I don't know how many peace oriented factions there are in Ukraine right now to be perfectly honest I'm not even sure that Petro parena is a peace oriented uh sort of force within Ukraine and he's just been sanctioned eternally uh you know by by zalinski so uh you know I think it's going to be a tough road and I think they need real kind new voices and let's be honest we thought that was zinsky in 2019 you know to step forward you know the same old corrupt and tied figures like Julia timeno oh my God you know no thanks uh you know coming forward I mean where are the leaders I mean you know maybe it's this illusionary guy who's in London at the moment you know the guy who apparently orchestrated the northstream the northstream bombing so there's not a lot of choice but when I visited Ukraine you know when I was based in in Russia I constantly kind of saw amongst young people and desire for change I've always s the aspiration to be a part of the European family is a good aspiration uh that's what can ordinates of young ukrainians want they just needs to be some young vigorous genuinely independent and not tied to the oligarchic money sort of figure coming through the ranks to actually kind of uh really kind of take Ukrainian politics in a new in a New Direction I mean Ukrainian politics hasn't really evolved since 1991 you let's be perfectly honest about it I mean there's always been an element of kind of struggle between you domination and kind of Russian sort of influence you know over Ukrainian politics you know at the high level but fundamentally the kind of the corruption and the vertical of power you know has been the the core feature that has never really changed you know since 1991 but that's the thing that young ukrainians you know from what I saw when I used to visit Ukraine you know want to see happen um you know I mean let's see who steps up right now there doesn't appear to be a huge amount of choic zinski wants to hold on for as long as he can so yeah I I I still feel I I feel extremely extremely horrible for for Ukraine because they are the they are the greatest victims I mean the Ukrainian soldiers and the Russian soldiers and the civilians on both sides who died they are the victims of this entire this entire scheme who paid the dearest price but it's I think it's it's point it's it's utterly clear that Ukrainian Ukraine bled a lot and many people lost their Liv um do you do you see a scenario under which there would be a a pro a a outcome a a settlement that might lead to prosperity for Ukraine at least over the medium or long run I do I genuinely do I mean but but that has to you know be rooted in in a ceasefire you know in a peace process you even if that ceasefire locks in the status quo you know when the when the fighting stops as happened in West Germany obviously after the end of the second world war with genuine peace where the Americans and the Europeans aren't whipping sort of the ukrainians into a frenzy to kind of ramp up their hostility towards Russia a genuine peace where all sides trying to kind of coexist with each other and people are invested in in you know Ukraine's genuine sort of economic rebirth and integration ation with Europe you know there would be huge potential for for Ukraine to to prosper and develop on the back of that just as you know West Germany did after the second world war clearly the circumstances are very different you know today but that depends on their being sort of genuine stability where you outside forces aren't trying to interfere you know in Ukraine's politics and just perpetuate this this you know eternally hostile kind of relationship towards Russia which shows absolutely no one's interests you know we need Ukraine and Russia to kind of exist coexist you know peacefully only then and this isn't Russia holding sort of Ukraine hostage it just makes very obvious economic sense only then can you Ukraine have a clear path ahead to really grow you know and prosper as a European nation do you think the Europeans will be able to jump over their own shadow on this one because you know let's remember that in 2014 one the the the trigger for the maidan coup was that the Yan Mr yanukovich wanted to sign an agreement with both with Russia and the Europeans and the Russians said fine and the Europeans said no it's either or and then Mr yanukovich said fine I'm going to go with Russia and then then things unfolded and so that was a moment when when when the EU made a a mutual agreement actually impossible do you think this this might be one of the lessons the Europeans now learn that no we need to allow a bridge to be a bridge and not create not change it into a wall or is that still too far too much wishful thinking from my part I mean there there are two issues you know there really that there's one about um you know Europe's relationship with Russia itself you know which is you know key in all of this and then there's Europe Europe's relationship with Ukraine you know and Ukraine's relationship with Russia as a separate kind of subset you know if if Europe is actually kind of looking to reestablish a much more normal relationship with with Russia an economic relationship with Russia that then the issue of you know Ukraine being in either or a zero sum you know Ukraine either with Europe or with Russia you know starts to fade away because actually you know if Europe is pursuing the same sort of relationship with Russia on on equal terms economic terms as it is is with Ukraine then that that question you know is no longer sort of a Salient you know question you know Europe and Russia and Ukraine and other countries are you know starting to think in more Eurasian terms about how collectively the set of countries and groups of of countries can economically can coexist in a way which benefits everybody in terms of their Mutual Prosperity so I think that that's you know that's the critical point here is is as much about Europe's relationship with Russia as it is actually about Europe's relationship with the Ukraine yeah which is why the Russians are saying what they are looking for is not just a peace settlement for Ukraine they are looking for a security settlement in with Europe and actually a Global Security architecture that should keep things stable that's their overall goal um do you think Europe of February 2025 is ready for that is that is are they are they open to contemplate this uh well uh no because at the moment they're going through the kind of the penultimate stage of the grief cycle as I like to you know put it they're in this kind of phase of depression you know where they've realized that their policy is actually dead and they need to kind of develop a new policy uh it's only as you know over the coming months as you know the Earth Tremors from from Trump's you know shift start to kind of fade away somewhat that they can start to kind of pick themselves up and say well actually you know what is our strategic sort of aim here you know with Russia you know and and with Ukraine we're nowhere near that point yet it seems to me uh people are still scrabbling around repositioning themselves on the back of what's Trump what Trump's done to to think about you know what they're going to do and I think you know we're in a massive transition phase right now is anyone in Europe and the UK looking at the reactions from the rest of the world like from China from Southeast Asia from Africa from South America like the the way that this momentous moment is being is being witnessed by the non-european part of the of the planet well yeah and of course that that's the risk for for Europe itself right you know from from Trump's move because that makes Europe appear even more isolated you know than it was before you know before it was like the collective West versus the global South right in in terms of kind of you know what's happening in Ukraine in particular now it's Europe versus everybody else and I think that is a you know very very hard position you know for the Europeans to going to sustain long term and one of the other kind of political risks really which make it harder you know for Europe to kind continue fighting come up may even if the Americans totally pull pull a plug which they look likely you know to do so interestingly the UN General Assembly sort of resolution yesterday actually most developing countries you know voted in favor of condemning the violence that's taken place you know in in Ukraine so the position is quite nuanced but very clearly Russia and China in particular have actually really forged ahead with their bricks grouping in terms of gathering this big Global South conversation you know around them about the future of kind of global politics so yeah there's a massive risk right now that Europe is going to be completely left be and end up with as I said versus the world which you know would would be totally unhelpful for for Europeans economically politically and in every other way they would have no nobody else to blame but themselves if that was what happened but then again the Europeans are Masters in blaming everybody else for their own mistakes um are you seeing any any indications of that like you know the the when things happen that that you didn't expect then you need to start making ad hoc hypothesis of why that is so from within the framework the propaganda itic framework um that we've been engulfed with what are the explanatory variables that right now people are come up with oh it's the Chinese support or oh it is the shadow Fleet of the Russians that managed to sell the oil what what explanations are these people coming up to in order to justify their previous misinterpretations of what H what was going on well I mean I think the answer is that they're not you what they're doing is they're just trying to reposition their narratives what right now in a way that it doesn't S of illuminate their failures of the past and that's why that kind of transition is going to be gradual and it's happening everywhere even the British are slowly kind of repositioning themselves right now you British Minister over the weekend you know said for the first time that how important it is to recognize the need to engage you with Russia it having been an explicit UK policy since 2014 that we wouldn't engaged with Russia so so everywhere where people are kind of repositioning themselves gradually to avoid too much emphasis on you know the massive failure of the past 11 years you know I think yeah it's going to be tough for everybody because actually there'll be blowback you know on the on them politically what's different in in the UK I suppose and in some other European countries you know in France you know in Germany in Central Europe even in Italy for example you know there is there are factions you know within those countries that have always been against the war that doesn't really exist in the UK where there's been almost a blanket of consensus and censorship even of alternative voices on the war so in some respects that POS that repositioning may be easier because nobody wants to talk about the past everybody's jocking to kind of position themselves for the future um the it's not just the way that Washington and Moscow are creating a um or a spring a th of of the war but it's also the fact that the new US Administration is criticizing Europe for being not Democratic enough and not free speech enough that is causing quite a steer is how's the British establishment media and so on reacting to this um to this judgment by especially the vice president um who said so about 10 days ago and without absolute indignation uh and red-faced anger about it because let's face it the truth hurts right it really does I mean you know there is there is uh censorship in the UK of alternative voices I mean I'm quite a reasonable guy right I'm not an extremist I'm a Centrist and absolutely as pro- European Centrist but trying to get my voice heard in the mainstream media in the UK is practically impossible because I'm saying things that they don't want to hear um so yeah no it's really painful that guy the head of the Munich security conference crying at the press conference what the hell was that all about I mean come on guys get real you know the world's changing actually let's all live in peace with each other let's get along with other countries let's even get along with Russia rather than just promoting sort of War what is so bad about what's happening you know right now it's a quite bizarre situation that uh people can somehow claim uh that actually talking to to to Vladimir Putin tips the world into a biggest crisis than the millions of peoples who died who died since the end of the second World War through various conflicts and Wars many of which we've actually started you how can talking to people be a crisis it's totally totally ridiculous well this is this is what happens when for the last 3 to 11 years you depict Vladimir Putin as the second coming of Hitler and Hitler of course is a synonym for the devil so you just created a moment in which now you know talking to the devil is what is necessary I think this cognitive dissonance now actually really like physically hurts these people at least the Dumber ones the ones who didn't understand that it was stupid or that it was not true from the beginning there are lots of dumbs out there to be honest it's is hard to identify the sensible ones a lot of the time but absolutely right it's painful we failed we were wrong and that's a huge Reckoning for all these people have puffed up on their own kind of power and importance to swallow you know the the countless kind of op heads and media reports about The imminent collapse of Russia about Putin's imminent death and all these all these things all wrong and uh you know now people have got to face up to that and it hurts it hurts like mad because those damn Americans have done it again they've swept in and and taken in charge of the situation well we're flopping around on our bellies like babies crying and wailing about how bad it all is grow up and actually have a foreign policy towards Russia that makes sense that works for Europe that works for Russia that works for Ukraine what's so difficult about that uh a couple of days ago I had a former Spanish Ambassador on my channel and he was making the point and I put that at the very beginning because I thought it was so so important to know that the diplomats of Europe they knew he said he told me like Pascal we knew we are professionals we knew what was going on we knew about the color revolutions we knew about the policy behind that we were aware of it we were just not able to speak about it because we we serve the polit the our politicians right the way it has to be is that is that also an assessment that you would make I mean is does the Diplomatic Corp of Europe actually understand what's really going on under the hood well I think a lot of them believe they're in propaganda of course because if you look at the European sort of diplomatic core the European external Action Service they don't really have any political leadership I mean you know that is a democratically unaccountable body I me I'm pro- European but that's how it is so so you know the their their voice is is actually kind of European policy in the UK context you know there no kind of claring cause of alarms you behind doors in King Charles Street about about the policy you know there's there's almost kind of nothing to separate the political position from the position of of the you know the diplomats uh so I I think in in other you know parts of Europe perhaps uh but very very little evidence that I saw that actually diplomats standing up and saying well hold on a minute maybe we're making a colossal mistake here I saw practically no evidence of of that during my time and I was in right from the beginning in 2014 m i mean as I saw Putin in in the UK in slightly better times in 2013 I I witnessed a whole lot and everybody was in denial and believing that what we were doing was absolutely right and Justified okay so also for the diplomats it depends very much on whether you swallowed the the I ideological pill hole or not that much in that case h exactly it always stuck in my throat but I never saw anybody else kind of red faed and coughing I mean went to a a European sort of meeting in I used to go to the m month in Moscow at the European delegation office these kind of coordination meetings and I remember then when the sanctions were coming in that actually as a Spanish Diplomat then was actually shouting at us saying guys are you completely crazy do you not realize how stupid this is so you know you could see elements of it going to European coordination meetings but the can of French the Germans you know the Brits you know very much had a strangle hold on on that and most other that's going of fell in line now what's changing now of course is you know in Central Europe in particular you know there there's a real shift there where people are saying well actually no this is wrong and I think that's that's a big risk for Europe going forward over the past 11 years no very little very little kind of descent okay interesting interesting because I I still try I'm still trying to figure out how how you know collectively we get into such huge such a huge mess and you know a war is the ultimate mess right um I think it will take us a long time to still figure that one out um do you have we've lost it we've lost the ability to actually develop foreign policy in a critical you know way you know we have such an amateous way of developing for policy you know people just come in look at it through a a purely normative lens and say what's happening is wrong we have to act and nobody's really kind of thinking through you know for policy options from a position of actually what are our strategic interests here you know why is it important for us to act and where do we want to get to with this there's very little you know of that going on and I think that's and indeed British ministers have even talked about this not just about diplomatic uh you know policy but also other kind of domestic policy too the quality of advice that goes up to ministers in the UK is really in generally quite poor and I think that definitely can have impacts on us using sort of uh you know bad policies and then following them to the degree why why does that happen I mean there was I mean Europe in geopolitics Europe used to be synonymous with geopolitics right not in the good sense in in very I mean in the very kind of War making sense but there was there was overall geopolitical strategic thinking once upon a time and that seems to have left or is that just my my impression of it well I mean Europe itself is a huge in many respects is a huge geopolitical success right and emerging out kind of ruins of of the second world war through economics principally in and social and cultural kind of Engagement they've achieved a level of peace until recently that had been unheard of in the centuries of our history before that so so that came from an initial vision and I think that vision for what the Europe stands for you know has been lost and I think one of the reasons for that is is actually that Europe has become you know less kind of philosophical less kind of political and more bureaucratic you know and actually the institutions of Europe have now got so much power that they they continue to centralize that power a trend we've seen under Ur Mion you know during her term a massive kind of centralization you know of power you know that the bureaucracy is just serving its own needs and isn't really working to any specific Vision its need to exist and to grow more powerful is actually now outstripping any sense you know of purpose you know for the the Union as a whole and you see exactly the same things with NATO you know people spend too much time thinking of NATO as a purely military Alliance and of course on the surface it is but fundamentally NATO is a bureaucracy and it's because of that sort of bureaucratic sort of Drive uh to gain power and to grow just to serve its own interests which is a thing that's causing us harm you know actually so you know once we start thinking about Europe and NATO as bureaucracies then we can start thinking about well how do you reform that so that it become much more Visionary much more light touch in terms of the role they play allowing a member states to have political Freedom stract as they see fit but within an overarching framework and not just pursuing power as an end in itself and I think that's that's a shift that I frankly don't see happening anytime soon without some sort of catastrophic political change you know so yeah I mean that that is that is the condition that we're in right now yeah yeah maybe last question do you think that or what's your assessment of NATO I mean this is probably the largest strategic defeat of NATO in the in the in the alliance history right and it's not a defeat in which like the an alliance member was in invaded But it's definitely definitely a defeat of the out of area or out of uh or out of business kind of mentality where where do you see the future of NATO going well I think people are too quick firstly to talk about the US leaving NATO because the US gets massive economic benefit from NATO just as an internal Market I mean NATO you know as I said people think about nato in the wrong ways they think about as a military Alliance it's first and foremost a bureaucracy and it's an intern inter market for weapons supplies you know um that said um you know NATO has suffered as you say a huge kind of strategic defeat um you know in a David and Goliath struggle you know Vladimir Putin has said well no he won't expand and has has has won you know there's no other way of you know to say it than that um and that is going to cause huge amounts of reflection in to itself but also within Europe specifically about the nature of of European security calls will grow for a much kind of uh more robust uh architecture for European sort of common Security in the future that must embrace you know Regional Powers including sort of Russia that then throws a future of NATO in doubt uh but I don't see it sort of um you know its imminent downfall it's not the Roman Empire um uh I think actually it's it's going to if anything it will just kind of fall into some sort of stat stasis and slowly kind of Wither on the vine but actually the US are far too invested in nato in terms of the econom they benefit from it to let it fail you know let's see you know that the future direction of Travelon some common European Army and that sort of stuff I personally don't think that's going to go that far because individual nations want to have their own kind of control over those things but yeah it's it's in a state of flux but I don't really see it sort of um uh you know collapsing anytime soon yeah yeah and especially I think what you also said about the internal market for weapons and so on you know all of these calls for 5% uh debt to G uh GDP spending on on defense is a call for like buying more such weapons from the United States and doing that for through Nat would be the natural thing to do right would be another way to go they they they get over I think it's about 53 54% of total global s of weapons supplies you know and therefore you can extrapolate from that you know they get about that much from sort of NATO uh contracts you know as well I mean NATO spent about onethird about 32% of of all of NATO's spending is on equipment and if you bear in mind that that NATO kind of spends each year you know around 1.5 trillion dollars you know uh on defense let that number sink in for a minute you know third of that that's 500 billion let's say for you know argument sake is all equipment and you know that's basically kind of knocking on for close to 300 billion of of business for the US every year I mean they're not going to give that up anytime soon are they good observation good observation um Ian it it was a pleasure thank you very much people who want to follow you should best go to your substack I suppose the peacemonger yes that's my new substack and please find me there yeah thanks as always Pascal it's always terrific the work you do has been incredible a much needed voice of reason during these ridiculously kind of uh mind-blowingly kind of stupid times of policy incoherence over the past 11 years so thank you for what you you've done thank you Ian because like fighting back together uh stupidity we can only do that by by talking reason and by peace mongering so everybody go to the go to the peacemonger and and and help us peacemonger until they stop the stupidity Ian proud thank you very much for your time today cheers Pascal all the best