I think the most intelligent thing that the average person can do is go someplace where uh it's not as dangerous we have more opportunity and a lot less risk uh after all if you were in Russia in 1917 the smart thing to do would have been get the hell out of Dodge if you were in China 1946 smart thing get the hell out of Dodge Vietnam 1975 get the hell out of Dodge Cuba 1959 get the hell out of Dodge I can give you the scores of states and countries but that's true hey guys welcome back to Capital cosm today I've got the one and only Doug Casey back on the show Doug thank you so much for coming on it's my uh pleasure to be here Danny at uh right now I'm on the shores of the Chesapeake Bay uh in a month I'll be in koala Lampur on my way back to uguay taking the uh cic grout if you would oh what's that in K koal lour there's a conference there and uh I generally abstain conferences they're largely a waste of time but I needed an excuse to get back to the oriet gotcha well Doug I mean there is no shortage of topics to talk about nowadays so um you know but before we get started I'd like to remind everyone on this channel to hit that subscribe button if you haven't already um it's free and it helps me get guests like Doug on for future shows and the show you know we're basically doing this about daily now so you know you want to hit that subscribe Buton hit that Bell notification as well to not miss an episode Doug let's just take you from the top what is kind of like your overview of the economy the markets there's all sorts of things happening in the world right now um 30,000 foot view what's uh what's Doug think what what does Doug think is going on out there uh economically how we're heading deeper into what I call the greater depression a period of time when most people standard of living drops significantly and I don't use the word depression uh promiscuously but uh purposefully it's going to be like what happened from 1929 to 194 6 but uh much worse much longer lasting and much different uh politically in the US uh I think the US government is actually on tilt uh that's a term that comes out of Poker I like to play poker and sometimes you see a player who's been making mistakes and losing money and then after a while he relinquishes all hope and just goes wild and hope that uh crazy bets will make him even and that's where the US government is at this point uh spending $2 trillion dollar per year more than it takes in that's going to go to three or four trillion in the next couple of years uh but they're completely out of control uh the government itself is run by actual Jacobin same kind of people that took over France After the Revolution uh militarily uh we're in an unsustainable position with 800 bases around the world uh gigantic military expenditures on on last generation weapon systems that are pointless in today's world just expensive bankrupting us it's uh and sociologically the country is uh falling apart at the seams not least of which uh the problems we have is the uh migration of millions and millions of uh aliens to the US people without money don't sharing don't share American value and stupidly incredibly uh the US is inviting them in paying them giving them money giving them places to say free food free medical care uh and it's uh very destabilizing to the country as a whole and demoralizing to the average American when he sees this going on so I've got a fairly gloomy Outlook of the world the way it is right now to answer the question Danny yeah I mean you mentioned the debt burden there when when do we get to the point where you countries just stop buying our debt it's China's been dumping treasuries but it's at the tune of what 50 billion here 100 billion there but one one does it become a more of a contagion um because that's really when the H the House of Cards Falls when you know other countries stop buying the debt you're quite correct and we're well on our way because uh even those who believe in ridiculous Keynesian economic theories look at the fact that the acknowledged debt of the US is $35 trillion and of course there's another hundred trillion dollars of of U contingent debt of various types that's out there and they recognize that it can never be repaid or it can be repaid but the dollars it's repaid with would be of nominal value so that uh I think it's we're pretty close to game over quite frankly um the major export of the US for the last 40 years uh has not been soybeans or boeings or ibms or things of that nature it's been dollars uh we send dollars uh abroad and the nice foreigners give us Mercedes and Sony's and cocaine and God knows what else but at this point the world is a wash in dollars and since foreigners unlike Americans don't have to use dollars to settle with each other it's just a convenience because it's the most liquid currency uh if they start dumping them uh the question is to whom and the answer is they'll all come back to the US to uh take title to American land businesses uh whatever uh so we'll get all those dollars back to the US and title to the assets of America will uh be transferred to foreigners because the country's been living way above its means for decades now so U I guess that's the answer to the question I guess when that happens that should also solve the immigration process right No One's Gonna want to come here anymore well right now they still do um because crime in Venezuela in Caracus I've been to Caracus I don't know three or four or five times at least over the years a number of other places in Venezuela as well and um once upon a time it was a nice city uh then with um Chavez and aduro was transformed into the highest crime city well not actually Port of prance is really the highest crime city in the world but close but now Caracus is going back to being a nice city believe it or not they say I haven't been there recently but I've heard this because all of the gangsters sociopath criminals have realized wait a minute what are we doing down here there's nothing to steal if we go up to the US it's a soft prize uh we can get away with absolutely anything so let's go north and so uh many many uh Venezuela Venezuelan criminals have come up here and the crime level in Caracus has dropped quite a a bit I'm told but it's gone way up here you've probably heard uh in Denver for instance uh that uh migrants uh criminal migrants from Venezuela have taken over three separate apartment buildings uh close to each other in Aurora Illinois which is a suburb of Denver wow and the police or the FBI or the local government nobody's doing anything about it at all why is that why is no one doing anything because they can and because uh listen Maybe the police are afraid to uh listen anything's possible we're moving into a kind of a a Road Warrior Stage of all of this where uh maybe the police don't want to confront a gang that would take over three apartment complexes this point yeah it's cost benefit analysis you know either they may not be up to the task or they may lose a lot more men than they're willing to uh deal with right well listen everybody likes to avoid cont confrontation if they possibly can but I don't know what's going on with the Denver Police Department or the Aurora Police Department what's the point of this policy like I mean I like the the talking point is you know we need to bring in you know labor to do all these jobs that no one else wants to do our labor force is shrinking so let's Outsource it to you know the Third World um but is is that really it is is that the reason why we have an unchecked border well it's actually much more serious than that it's not just about an unchecked border uh it's about a moral collapse in our society where over the last 60 years more or less uh the idea has permeated through society that you can get something for nothing and in fact you can uh you can go on welfare uh and be paid for not working you can get food stamps and get paid or eat for for nothing you get Medicaid uh free medical uh if you have kids they go off to school uh have their lunches uh given to them and it's babysitting for eight hours a day uh people in the US have become quite irresponsible and uh psychologically uh really bad ideas are permeated uh it's not that uh Americans wouldn't or shouldn't work work it's the we're living off of accumulated Capital at this point and it's uh resulted in uh moral degradation I I hate to sound I hate to sound like a uh you know a Bible Belt preacher but the fact is if you have a culture it's based on values and the values that uh the US was famous for uh truth justice self-reliance hard work it's a whole panoply of these things they' pretty much been washed away in the past decades and uh the chickens are kind of coming home to roost yeah I mean the United States really inherited a treasure drove towards the uh the end of the Soviet Union the early 90s or so and we've effectively squandered all of it um it's it's yeah it's created a mind of entitlement it's created a mindset of um of weak men right good we had extremely good times back then and the byproduct of that is weak men right it's the good times create weak men weak men create Hard Times Hard Times create strong men strong strong men create good times it's all cyclical and um you know we've just uh we're just going through that fourth turning cycle now I guess um you can kind of you can kind of see it now with um you know the price of gold going through the roof $2500 let's go ahead and pivot over to that for a second uh why is gold you know making a new alltime high is almost weekly now in your opinion Doug uh the price of oil has been kind of stagnant but it's it's it last time I checked today it was a little bit above 78 bucks well you've got to recognize that the uh US government or the Federal Reserve is running these gigantic deficits and they really can't borrow the money anymore it's very hard to tax anymore so they're printing money up and uh all this additional purchasing media uh spewing out of the Federal Reserve uh floats into society and that's what happens uh if you double the money supply in the US prices will approximately double and that's what's going on right now it's not doubling every year obviously but it's increasing rapidly and uh in addition to the general price level going up uh people that have assets are looking for some way that they can stay ahead on this treadmill so even though the average American is not very familiar with gold uh enough people in the US and around the world are they realize that gold is the only financial asset that's not simultaneously somebody else's liability uh it's money in its most basic form and you can't hold dollars anymore that's a guaranteed loss every year so what are you going to hold if you want an asset that is insulated from the vagaries of unemployment and consumer purchasing and uh corporate machinations and so forth but can you go into real estate I mean real estate is uh sitting on a uh a sea of debt uh very very dangerous uh being battered in additional addition Ally by uh by real estate taxes and so so where do you put your money today quite frankly uh it used to be you think well America is going to grow I'll put my money in a mutual fund good corporations they'll go up in value grow with it's been an excellent idea in the past but uh corporations are overleveraged uh the whole society's overleveraged uh no and it's basically just paper uh run by increasingly distant and corrupt managements no I think uh gold is going up because it represents safety and prudence and insurance and at some point it's going to go up a lot faster uh after it reaches a certain point people say this is the place to be and greed will hit it and uh it can go a lot higher very quickly yeah but don't you think that's a little ways away I mean it kind of seems like this gold rally hasn't even started yet sentiment really hasn't kicked off into retail like that's why the premiums in a lot of these um gold products are still quite low um it appears to be mainly buying from you know central banks that have billions and trillions of dollars but you know once this kicks off in retail it'll be a completely different game altogether uh you going to say something that know you're quite correct because uh foreign central banks that hold lots and lots of dollars uh realize they don't want to hold the unsecured liability of a bankrupt government uh they saw what happened to the Russians recently MH uh so know the dollar is an International Hot Potato from their point of view so what kind of an asset will a central bank hold well it's not so smart holding dollars don't want to hold the paper currency of any other government because most of the international governments are bankrupt so they're going to do what people have done for thousands of years uh they're going to buy gold because it was Aristotle in the 4th Century BC that Define the uh reasons why gold is an ideal money and they're actually just as valid now as they were 2400 years ago what about Silvers uh silver was actually the um uh we in the United States for example we had a silver standard many people did not know that but um you know part of the reason behind the um the story uh what was it called Follow The Yellow Brick Road um oh yeah that was Frank bomb's Wizard of Oz The Wizard of Oz yep so in the original story she was wearing silver uh sandals or Sil silver shoes and that was an allegory for the silver standard that we once had in the United States so what about how do you see Silver's role um kind of in the global sphere you do have all these central banks buying gold um but where is silver going to fit into all this well as far as money what are you going to use for money uh any type of a commodity with certain characteristics can be used I mentioned uh the um the uh parameters that Aristotle defined he said a good money has to be durable okay silver is durable not as durable as gold but a lot more durable than wheat for instance which is why you can't use wheat as money has to be divisible uh yeah silver is equally divisible as gold it's why you can't use diamonds or artwork as money has to be convenient that's why you can't use lead as money because it takes way too much of it to be of use and that's a bit of a problem with silver uh if you're going to have a lot of wealth uh that you want to hold as money it takes a lot of silver takes a room full of it frankly it's not the case with gold durable divisible convenient consistent it's why we can't use real estate as money every piece is different from any other piece and it has to have use value in itself uh that's why you shouldn't use paper as money uh silver is fine that way uh look you can use copper as money and we have used copper as money frankly uh from the days of ancient Greece and Rome to the present copper has been used as small change but uh how gold just works out best it's got more of the important characteristics of a sound money nothing wrong with silver in fact silver is an excellent speculation at this point it's a much smaller Market than gold and uh there's a almost all the gold that's been mined throughout history nobody knows how much that is but the guess is that H six to 7 billion ounces are above ground and they're basically in storage people hold on to it uh that's not the case with silver there's not a large large inventory of silver so smaller Market no inventory much lower per unit price when people get scared it can be very very volatile so as a speculation at this point I think silver is pretty good yeah speaking of speculations uh the mining stocks do you do you see this as a time to uh go along the mining stocks but you know given the macro backdrop that we're dealing with um you think it's a little bit risky because mining stocks at the end of the day are stocks um they did have their time in the sun back in 2020 2021 but ever since then it's just been you know a huge slog down what do you think of the mining stocks well mining stocks are perhaps the most volatile class of Securities on the planet they're probably more volatile than biotech stocks more volatile than high-tech startups even uh hugely volatile uh and that scares people away from them and Mining is a actually a crappy 19th century Choo Cho train business uh first of all you have to go out and find a deposit which is really hard to do and it costs money then you have to develop it now you're talking about millions of dollars on an Easter egg hunt to develop the deposit and then if it turns out that you've got a viable deposit to mine now your trouble really starts you've got to raise scores or 100 of millions or billions of dollars to mine it and now you're going to have to confront regulations and Hermits and Nos and Native people and it's a horrible industry so of course I understand why people stay away from it that's why Buffett as famously never bought a Mining stock uh but on the bright side the market caps of these things are so teeny weeny I mean you talk about big cap stocks small cap stocks uh uh micro cap stocks these things are nanocap stocks even Pico cap they're teeny waiting which means that they're so small that institutions have a trouble have trouble buying them they can't buy things with market caps of a few million dollars or 10 or20 million they manag trillions uh so that uh the institutions aren't buying them for that reason they're not buying them because uh same reason the buffet's not buying they they don't buy them because um they don't believe in Gold quite frankly they think it's a pet rock uh and the public doesn't understand it so it's a completely overlooked part of the market but it's a small part of the market and when when things start happening which I expect it takes years to happen sometimes before they start happening uh these things explode they go the whole Market goes 10 to one many individual stocks go 100 to one uh I've personally been involved in two companies that have gone a thousand to one I'm not talking over a lifetime I'm talking over a few years so um yeah I I think it's a speculation right now uh your broker will tell you that's insane everybody will say what are you talking about but that's that's one of the signs of a good speculation that uh you're not running with the herd so are you in the market for gold and silver then if so please consider miles Franklin they are my gold and silver dealer of choice so not only do they have super competitive prices that you're going to have a really hard time finding elsewhere but then they also have topnotch customer support I know Andy sheckman the owner of Miles Franklin top-notch guy I wouldn't be recommending them to you if I didn't have faith in their product mode what what you really want to do however you want to email them at info@ mfranklin decom and you want to say that capital cosm sent me in the description line because when you do that you can get access to their special pricing sheet you want to get that special pricing sheet because you're going to get special prices that you won't find on the website itself so email them at info@ franklin.com tell them that Capital cosm sent you and you won't be heckled with Spam emails Etc there's no commitment necessary I promise you that and with that said I will let you get back to the video I'm a big fan of buff stocks Yeah Yeah you mentioned Warren Buffett there if we were to use him as any indication I mean he just recently sold off half his uh steak and apple um he's in a historically High cast position uh so I mean Warren Buffett is setting himself up for uh you know taking to taking advantage of a of a correction a crash or something but you know this is unprecedented coming from him at least to my knowledge yeah you're quite correct uh I I I don't have any interest in the stock market as a whole at this point um from a historical point of view the stock market as a whole is very overpriced price earnings ratio price tobook value ratio uh low dividend yields uh it's not a good time to be involved in stocks right now and the possibility exists for the stock market to actually crash it's not a prediction but it's a real possibility uh well should you be in bonds and I would say no bonds are about the worst thing you could be in they're a triple threat to your Capital you have the currency risk the dollar uh which is headed towards its intrinsic value uh you have the interest rate risk interest rates are still very very low from um a recent historical point of view people forget that they were 15 18% that's what the government was paying back in the early 80s so that's another huge risk uh and you've got the default risk not with government paper they just print up more dollars but with corporates yeah there's a real default risk so no I wouldn't touch bonds at this point uh sometime in the future they may be once again a good speculation real estate lots of problems with real estate uh that's a a separate show we could talk about so yeah at the moment I'm a gold bug a commodity bug it's not just gold but but gold leads Commodities right that's that's what happened before in 2020 gold L to charge it does uh there are some there's still some cheap Commodities around I mean you've had uh you've had Coco which is quadrupled in the last year that's a big move for for a commodity so your price of your candy bars is going to go way up uh coffee doubled in the last year uh copper uh doubled uh actually the cheapest Commodities right now at the moment are the grains uh soybeans wheat corn uh rice uh but that's only because uh we've had absolutely wonderful weather uh this season and they're a huge harvests and they're quite cheap right now so I'm uh I'm looking to go long the grains but um and speaking how do you how do you how do you play the grains well on the Futures Market actually I see there are ETFs that are tradeable as stocks for the grains but um if you want to speculate in the grains you're really looking at Futures markets and of course there are options on Futures but I don't recommend that people that are not really really experienced uh get involved in the Futures markets because it's so easy to blow yourself up by overleveraging or second guessing and you have to realize that the big players in the Futures markets have access to the best information of all types on these things so you're you know you're you're you're playing against you know super sharks uh odds are against you I'm just making that observation as an academic point right grains are Commodities are generally cheap even though they've run up a lot but uh it's not a good idea for the average guy unless he's already so sophisticated that he doesn't need to ask for other people's advice so Doug I I've heard the argument be made that um uh Democratic Administrations tend to be bullish for Commodities because they mishandle the supply side um relative to Republican administrations um with the election coming up down the road in a in a couple months now Trump versus B Trump versus Harris now um what is what are the differences that one can expect from either Administration you should whatever result occur between the well both of these parties are so corrupt that it's really a unip party where you've got the left wi of the uh uni party and the rightwing and actually the difference between them you know it used to be the Republicans were you know they said they were for the free market but they never really were uh but they were definitely against social Freedom uh and the Democrats said they they were against the free market but they're all for social freedom but they weren't really I mean um look you get the worst possible kind of people getting into politics you don't get the best and the brightest types you get people that want to boss other people around that think they know what's better for other people Busy Bodies uh people are get into politics essentially have a criminal personality streak through them having said that uh uh camela and what's his name wal these these are these are Absol these are horrible human beings uh they have terrible values they they really want they're they're socialists at heart they're actually they they're actually Communists they don't believe in any kind of any kind of Freedom uh given that choice I'm not a fan of trump either uh what I like about Trump is he's a cultural conservative he'd like the country to Retro Rock to 50 years ago and go back to the good old days okay we all would that's wonderful and as a businessman uh as a businessman he's not but you know he's always said I'm a big debt guy and he's borrowed and he spent more money in his four years than Biden has so uh it's it's it's real you're caught between skila and carbus here uh which as should recall from The Odyssey when odsis was it's a hopson's choice yes that's exactly right uh uh best thing you can do is and your vote doesn't count in addition to that and well partially because whoever wins is going to be whoever cheats best I handicapped the um I hate to say this but I think the Democrats are going to win or be installed because they're going to cheat more effectively than the uh Republicans also uh couple weeks ago Michael Moore uh and there's nothing good about Michael Moore except for the fact he's morbidly obese but he came out with the 20 things important things that Americans look at basic issu isues in our society any uh access polls with rasm and Pew and all these things and overwhelmingly the uh average American has philosophical SL political views that are very pro-democrat pro-socialist Pro welfare and that's the way people tend to vote which is where their views and hearts are um so there's that reason but the big reason is the Democrats really cheat a lot better than the Republicans do I'm totally convinced that they stole it from Trump a few years ago and uh ge the average the average the average salt of the earth American in the red states in the Heartland I think he's going to be really pissed off if the democ if I'm right and the Democrats win so we're actually on the cusp of something that looks like a Civil War I think it's going to be ugly there's no way out of this because the red people and the blue people really can't talk to each other they actually a lot of them actually hate each other uh they just can't communicate so uh it's G to be a fight uh do you see this as the kind of like the end of America or more of a cleansing period for America happening I.E whatever conflict whatever turmoil we go through it's more of a cleanse to get to wherever we need to be afterwards well yeah the bright side the bright side is that countries don't go away just because they have a bad time I mean look China has been through Wars and revolutions that killed the typing Revolution 20 million people got killed in the 19th century with that but China didn't change much the culture stayed the same the French Revolution it overturned the entire country wiped out much of the ruling class but it was still France 50 years later uh Germany been through two catastrophic world wars well it's still Germany although I've got to say all these countries are changing around the edges with with migration and so forth the answer to the question is as to America yeah there's still going to be a a Remnant here no matter how bad things get and things will I think things will work out okay you know 10 20 years from now uh we could have a Renaissance yeah I think it'll be okay I mean eventually and all these migrants that are coming in you know they'll you know they'll change and accommodate themselves to the majority uh which will still remain so it's just gonna be a really tough time the idea of America America anyway look America is not a place yeah sure we got this geography here between the Atlantic and the Pacific right but uh America is really an idea is what America is and that's not it's a and it's a good idea it's a great idea unique idea so that's not going to go away regardless of how stupid people act or what kind of criminals take over the country for a period of time so long term I'm optimistic technology will keep improving the average person is wired like a a a squirrel we like to put away nuts for the winter produce more than we cons consume and save the difference so there's a lot of good things that are going on but we're goingon to have a really really I don't see any way around uh the fact that we're going to have a really really rough time so Doug you know we we have all these crises all around us now with economic crises domestic crisis uh but what's what's top you know front in Center for you what's top of the radar for you um you know what what concerns you the most what's happening in the world well just in the meantime like Britain is apparently turning into a police state where even if you post something which is on kind about another person or God forbid another group uh they will prosecute you and put you in jail so uh it's Britain's turning into a situation very much like spelled out in that great movie V for Vendetta uh Germany is always had inclinations towards being a police state and the same is happening there with their afd party which simply wants to doesn't want to have the country overrun with with muhammadan migrants who actually are trying to impose Sharia law wherever they go um so uh these are problems they'll be solved at some some some way at some point but uh I'm trying to um look and I think you should try to insulate yourself from these problems it's that uh it's like Ray Delio uh you're familiar with them I don't know if all all or listeners are uh he's a an extremely successful fund manager uh he's personally worth $15 billion he's done very well he's a thoughtful guy and he's a concerned guy and he's done a serious study of history and he's come up with basically the same conclusions that I have we've looked at the facts and interestingly kind of got the same conclusions and what Doo says is this is that there's three things you can do as the hits the fan in the next few years and he says we are right on the cusp of that happening I mean it's here it's arrived in his opinion this isn't down the road this is now he's talking about says one uh you can find your Bros and you can stay and fight or number two alternative you can keep your head down and you know hide in a hole but stay where you are the third thing is you can U bail and go elsewhere I think the most intelligent thing that the average person can do is go someplace where uh it's not as dangerous we have more opportunity and a lot less risk uh after all if you were in Russia in 1917 a smart thing to do would have been get the hell out of Dodge if you were in China 1946 smart thing get the hell out of Dodge Vietnam 1975 get the hell out of Dodge Cuba 1959 get the hell out a Dodge I can give you scores of dates and countries where that's true staying and fighting is only in the movies like don't romanticize this stuff guys you're absolutely right Danny that's absolutely right uh that's absolutely right especially since yeah so uh I mean best case is that it's like a Spanish Civil War type of thing who knows what it's going to be like but I'd rather go someplace uh where that's not an issue and right now there's a number of places that are okay but I think Argentina and Uruguay are two um excellent possibilities so southern hemisphere um that kind of thing especially as we go into this war cycle as well we do have a couple theaters of War happening at this very moment in time the Eastern European theater and then the Middle Eastern theater um both of which escalated tremendously over the weekend and um you know in terms of the Eastern European front uh we did see uh nuclear plant attacks Zar nuclear power plant attacked over there um as well as the incursion into KK and then in the Middle Eastern Front we you know we're going to see what Iran does there um so it looks like we've got two big powder kicks and once one blows there's a good chance the other might blow with it you're quite correct and of course the Chinese with Taiwan I don't think they're going to do anything for a number of reasons but that's possible too and of course the US will get involved in that too so uh the southern hemisphere looks good for lots of reasons quite frankly and Argentina especially now uh with the election of Javier Malay who is an anarcho capitalist he's a he's a genuine ideological 100% free market guy whether he's going to succeed or not is a different question but he's trying and I spend a lot of time in Argentina and uguay which is quiet little Backwater next door to it very peaceful calm so um I think uh if you're in a position to I think you want to have a foothold in one or both of those countries yeah makes a lot of sense um I probably need to start figuring out my my plan as well but hey Doug it's been a pleasure anything else you want to talk about actually before we sign off oh we want to have something to talk about the next time all right well uh where can people find you Doug oh well uh I have a weekly or twice a weekly podcast with Matt Smith at Doug Casey's take it's on YouTube but other channels as well and also uh uh I have a Blog International man.com where I write something weekly but a bunch of other great guys write things daily so I think everybody ought to subscribe to International man.com as well great those two things yeah we'll have those link down below so be sure to check them out guys I'd also like to remind you if you enjoyed this video and you got value out of it uh to hit that like button subscribe to the channel if you haven't already it doesn't cost anything it's free uh but it does help me quite a bit and it helps me get more guests like Doug on the show and uh yeah let me know what you guys think if you enjoyed it write go Doug go in the comments section and tell me what you enjoyed about it what you disagreed about it really interested to get your thoughts guys with that said I will catch you in the next episode bye y'all