it's time for your September market update and this back to school Market is a sweet one hey everybody it's Allison wall with live South Denver your real estate strategist and realtor for the South Denver area let's Dive Right into these September numbers we saw 3,650 homes go under contract last month this is exactly the same spot we were in last month but it is up 10 12% from last year there were 3500 closings this month that's only 100 fewer than the month before roughly a 3% change month over month compared to this time last year though we are down 6% 4700 new homes hit the market 300 fewer than where we were last month that puts us down 5% month over month we're also down 4% year-over-year on new listings month of inventory we moved about a day or two but really we stayed quite steady month to month and the average days on Market went up a full week to 30 and the median days on Market went up 5 days to 21 all right let's get to the good stuff those September home prices the average close price for all homes $74,000 this is up $3500 from the month before year-over-year we're up 25% the single family home price average is $793,000 it is up $99,000 from the month before regaining the $9,000 loss from the previous month now year-over-year prices are only up 1% the condo and town home average price is $439,000 this is down $116,000 from the month before this takes us down 32% month over month and down 7% year over-year okay over to those median home prices the median price of all home sold is $589,000 that's a decrease of $11,000 and down almost 2% month over month we are still up up 1.2% year-over-year the medium price for single family homes is coming in at $650,000 down $7,000 month over month it drops us down about 1% month over month year-over-year we're literally up just a couple thousand the medium price for condo and town home also came down $116,000 to $395,000 this is down 4% month over month and down 5% year-over-year last our list price to sales price ratio dropped 1 and a 12% to 96.4 all right so what are the Nuggets what are the takeaways and all of this for you well first let's start with condos and town homes I asked for last month if you were watching to tag along and see if we were catching onto a trend or we are seeing a blip because we saw last month a sharp decrease in the average of median prices in condos and town homes and I was not sure if we were going to see just a one-time movement or if we were catching on to something that was going to keep going in a downward Direction well clearly if we've lost $28,000 in 2 months which is what we've seen we are in a downward slide in the condos and town homes with us moving into the latter quarter of the year I think we're not going to see a large shift back into a positive direction for condos and town homes so sellers this is not the season to be getting top dollar for your town home if you are wanting top dollar I mean who doesn't and you have the ability to wait you would be best off to have your eyes on Spring of 2025 not everyone can wait if you are going to be selling between now and year end now and say February 2025 maybe the eye on your prize should be moving your town home quickly so then it's all about presentation pricing and that is going to be more of the name to your game than it is eyeing top dollar of course top dollar in your relative Market is achievable but if you're wanting to get the most out of your town home then you might want to shift your eyes toward the peak of our Market which is more toward the springtime now when we look at single family home price averages those were up $9,000 this month after being down $9,000 the previous month we are seeing some strong buyer activity as we've already gotten the kids back in school we have a few months left before the holidays this is a pretty normal thing here in the den Market you might think well gosh if we already got everybody in school we had the peak buying season it's all downhill from here well yes the averages are that we go like this and then like this however once we hit Labor Day there's this little push between Labor Day and just before Halloween where we see a big stir Surge and activity where there's just a lot of people moving on buying looking active interested and we're in that we've got nice weather we have rates that have come down we're in the sixes so there is a strong interest in the market right now I have a listing that went under contract in 2 days we had multiple offers we sold to a cash buyer I've got buyers who are looking right now who are 50% down on their product which means they'll have no appraisal they're very strong they still lost out in a multiple offer situation so there is a lot of activity and this is a great time if you are already ready you don't have time to prep your home sellers but if you're already ready and have been debating and you look good if you're an easy button house you could still move before your end if that was your goal now lest I give lots of false hope that sellers you have the upper hand in this market buyers are generally still running the show let me give you the data that backs that up we typically see homes go under contract and move all the way to closing without a lot of situations where the buyer backs out in the co era When Buyers put a home under contract less than 10% of those properties fell out and came back to Market in the years before covid 2013 to 2019 right so we're out of the Great Recession era and we're coming up to the covid years the percentage of homes that would go under contract and then fall out was about 15% Where We Are today we are at about 35% of homes go under contract come back to Market that is a lot and I've talked about this in some of the other Market updates where I feel like buyers have their heads on a swivel and they will eyeball a home they will go after it they will put it under contract and while they are in inspection they are still looking they are still shopping they are still eyeing another home they may have a contract written and then they go oh did you just see one that came on Market I want to go see that one too because I know they said they like our offer I know we're in negotiations I know we're in a counter but gosh I really like that one it has that fifth bedroom oh it has that fourth garage Bay oh it has that quarter acre you name it whatever they want they are pivoting hard and fast because of so much inventory compared to where the Denver Market has been for so long so we are right now at 35% failure rate rate if you want to call it that on homes that go under contract the sellers the buyers really do still rule things right now we don't know how long this is going to last I anticipate we're going to see a shift into next year as rates come down more buyers come in the market sellers aren't necessarily going to be ready to move off those lower rates they have we'll hit a Tipping Point later I don't think it's going to happen in early mid 2025 on that note I am being asked a lot in private conversations what my take is on the market looking ahead the end of this year into 2025 and people want to know what they should do well I wish I had a crystal ball I do not but I think we're going to have a very strong outing in 2025 I'm anticipating the Denver Market to launch like a rocket out of the holidays that will have a strong January a strong February that is not uncommon here at all there are times when it does not happen but I would say a strong January and February is more common than not and here are the reasons why I think we are going to see that next year I'm anticipating a quiet end of year we're going to finish up this fall push and we're going to head into elections and that's going to quiet things down more than we usually have because this is obviously a cyclical event it quiets down the markets it's a world event not just a national event and things are going to hunker down a little more than they usually do once the elections are over things go back to normal it really doesn't matter which party comes into office university studies have proven that and anecdotally for those of us who are in this industry we see the same thing it does not matter what the results are it's just everything leading up to it quiets us down two after that we go right into the holidays when people have time to rest reflect spend time with loved ones they are thinking about what is next what is the New Year hold what is this next phase of lifeold was my house too small to host family do I want a family do I want to keep being at this job do I want to live here would I rather live somewhere else do I want to get healthy will I ever go to a gym or do I like to hike whatever it is people spend a lot of their downtime reflecting and the holidays in particular because it's a new year right we're always thinking of newness at the new year I will tell you I talk to so many people around them right after the holidays and we see a push into the real estate market because where we live the life we have the lifestyle we have the future we have before us there's a lot of time spent thinking of that when we are in that holiday season the New Year season and with families three rates are trending downward I mean they already are we had a high of about eight we moved to 7 and we're now below seven in and around the low mid sixes and the feds have said that trajectory is going to continue so we come past election past the holidays into a new year with rates trending downward and there is a sweet spot a transition point between catching a home you love that's priced low in the off seon versus catching it on the upswing in the spring season when rates are lower but buyer demand pushes up and the prices move so we have people who are looking to move and buy before the rates decrease but prices increase and fourth Denver has a strong job market ADP just came out with an evaluation of 55 Metro areas and Denver ranked number one we can continue to stay top of our game in terms of job job diversity pay and that draws people in so the more we're drawing people in the more demand we have for housing so my expectation is that we are going to come out of the holidays like a rocket when that happens it changes the price trajectory for spring meaning we shot up in January we shot up in February faster than the years where it's slow which means home prices in March April and May are higher than where they would be on a year where January and February are slower that's what I'm anticipating I could be wrong I never get this perfectly right because I don't have that Crystal Ball but that's what my instincts are telling me we're going to see when we move into next year thank you so much for joining me for this month's market update if you have questions about the market or want to see how to use it to your advantage to buy a home or sell a home here in the Denver area please reach out you know I always love to connect and I will see yall next week