hey folks welcome back we're looking at the dollar Index as a seasonal tendency and as we went through the mentorship uh this focus of the strongest seasonal Tendencies was one of the primary reasons for referring to seasonal Tendencies at all and while they are not at Panacea they are very good road maps and it was my intention to at least stimulate your thought processes around the idea of looking for those very routine repeating seasonal Tendencies and if you go back and watch the like the high quality uh I forgot what I named it actually the uh the best seasonal Tendencies the ones I'm I focus on you'll see that this is one of those in the list we have a seasonal tendency for for the dollar Index to create a low around the last week of September and first week of October as depicted here if you look at the the red line in here this delineates the 15-year seasonal tendency and the blue line delates the 33e seasonal tendency they have a denotation for five year but it doesn't appear on the chart so the importance is the correlation between the 15-year and the 33-year average uh when they both agree and it shows a strong turn uh that to me S uh signifies something that warrants our attention or at least it warrants my attention let's say it that way so I believe when it's bullish or extremely bullish uh we could see a low form as early as you the 21st or 20th this is round to a an even number cuz my OCD flares like that but uh the seasonal tendency here shows the 21st of September now on weaker years other words when it maybe isn't so bullish if you will it may take as late as mid October to show the seasonal tendency to come to fruition for bullish dollar with that said it's not important that we split hairs about the specific date because it just gives us a window of opportunity to look for technicals to come in alignment with that so this price action model really is just going to like bring the things together with a real example that we've watched and and followed through to completion using the Swiss frank so if we go to the Swiss frank seasonal tendency let's do that now okay so we see so Frank that the seasonal tendency showing a important High forming again the last week of September and going into October shown here and I really didn't want to put my cursor here because you can see it draws those crosshairs on it but I wanted to use this chart because it's much cleaner looking versus the PDF format that uh comes along with this seasonal tendency from more research so looking at the the likelihood that we would see a stronger dollar seasonally and a weaker Swiss frank seasonally it goes without saying that the dollar Swiss pair in Forex should warrant a rally of some sorts but we have to look for things from a technical standpoint to support that idea while we do have the macro seasonal tendency here we have to look at what are the smart Money traders doing so now we're going to ring in the coot data and the hedging program that I taught through the mentorship okay so we're looking at the December contract for the Swiss frank price action shown here is daily and what I have plotted is the coot data for the commercials and I removed the small specs and the large funds just to keep our focus on the commercials and a few of my students uh and I appreciate this by the way uh they said that you could go to barchart.com you got to sign up for an account I think that only make this work and then once you create an account I just link mine through Twitter so you can sync it through your Twitter account once you sign in to Twitter go up to uh usually is up here like login or create an account just create an account linking signing in with your Twitter and it's uh pretty quick and easy painless but then you go over to interactive chart and you load up this symbol here s number six Z is in zipper 18 that will give you the December contract here then you will go to studies click on that add the coot commitment Traders as you can see the little eyeball is dark here that means the the commercials are the only one that's being shown I wanted to add the large specs back or the small specs back I'm just tap the the eyeball like that okay so since I don't want to make any changes I'm just going to come back out of that and now once you have this chart here what I do is I get the highest reading in the data which is about 67,800 and some it doesn't have to be perfect okay it's not that you have to have the exact number and I get the lowest reading which is over here in the last 12 months and then by having that range I just go into the middle now you can do it mathematically you can take the high and the low and determine what that middle is and then plot it but again I don't go crazy over it you can if you want to it's one of the few few times that my OCD doesn't really flare up it's not that imperative that uh I'm that precise about what we're looking for but once you have this information then you can go over to an application like paint on your computer and if you want to do this for your own records this is I just do it to highlight it so you guys can see it graphically and clearly uh but as you can see we're going into the last week of September going into October price Mak rally now price action model number six is focusing on the fractal which is the market maker buy model and sell models focusing only on the buy side okay so the Futures Contract you can see in here the commercials over the last 12 months even though we're not really looking at the zero basis line it's traditionally used for coot data and Analysis what I look for is 12 12 month range and 6month range and then 2year range and a 4E range but for the near term the 12 month and sometimes the 6 month is just enough to get your quarterly shift expected bullish or bearish okay so you can get a read on the commercials more accurately in my opinion and you'll have to go through the data yourself to convince yourself don't take my word on it it's much more powerful when you see it you can see there's a major accumulation phase in here here commercials were heavily long relative to its 12- month range okay so the highest high and the lowest low they were already factored by March to July okay going into August so this swing below the Range High and the range low that's a shift in their sentiment other words they're doing a lot more selling on a net basis than they are buying even though this whole process of the data is still classically viewed as net long and that's the reason why retail Traders get weball and well for lack of word crushed using coot data they put too much emphasis on whether they're bullish or bearish rela to that zero line and to me I think that zero line is a red hearring they're giving you enough data to say look we're being transparent we're showing you what our positions are but they're skewing the data so it's kind of like you ever watch that uh it's kind of old and only the people that are probably in their 40s would remember this but on TV and states there used to be a program every year David Copperfield would do this whole um hour show different you know magic tricks and such and one of them he made the Statue of Liberty disappear or so he said but really what it was is you were looking through a picture frame and the camera and a small select group of spectator ators were forced to view the Statue of Liberty through this picture frame and had a wall around that so you were limited to only seeing that Statue of Liberty or point of focus through that picture frame then he closed the curtains and then opened them moments later and you can see that the helicopter that was flying around that earlier is flying around an empty space little did you know that the camera because it's on the same pedestal that the small little section of audience members were sitting on that were connected to that window all he did was shifted the entire platform a few degrees to the left or right I can't remember which one it was but when you open the curtains up you look through that small little space of uh the window and your perspective would convince you quickly that what statue Li disappeared No all he did was skewed the information he gave you something to to look at well this is what I believe the C data does from a classic interpretation they show you just enough but the information is really only usable when you look at it in terms of well think about what what the data is telling us okay we're tracking the buying and selling of three groups small specs are not concerned with because they're typically wrong large funds or large specs they're classically right in trending moves but they're always wrong at the tops and the bottoms tops and the bottoms are always called by the commercial Traders so if we are focusing on the commercial Traders we'll know with a great deal of certainty not Absolution but great deal certain certainty that the E and flow of price action will be more or less dictated by their actions so if we see a net long position here as shown we could recently expect to see some bullishness uh com into the marketplace we see a consolidation the market leav consolidation comes back to the consolidation there's our return to the market maker sell model rallies up another buying opportunity so it's a reaccumulation accumulation reaccumulation smart money reversal lowrisk sell redistribution redistribution clearing the consolidation out over here but the focus is right in here this is what I want to bring your attention to so price action model number six what we're looking for is a high probability condition that repeats just about every year and that's why it's framed on what I taught in the mentorship by way of looking at the seasonal Tendencies we've already framed out the last week of September going into October bullish dollar bearish seasonal for the Swiss frank so now we have at that same time the coot hedging program application that I use for cot data which is only T here this gives us a cell program so we're seeing a heavy distribution in their net Longs but more importantly over the last 12- month range it gives us like a typical over sold to overbought range like an indicator but the only thing I did was used data to measure their real buying and selling and not using that forced perspective of are they net long net short basis like the traditional retail perspective teaches okay there are times when that is useful yes but predominantly I go to this before I even consider the net long or net short basis traditionally seen with the c analysis so now with that information let's go over to the dollar CAD pair for Forex and pull out some information relative to price action model number six okay so we're looking at the dollar Swiss this is the monthly chart and again I'm going through the same progression that I taught in the mentorship go back and look at the position trading the swing trading the short-term trading the day trading and the scalping lessons and how we started those lessons from which chart goes to what time frame lower and that that typical progression towards a top down approach okay so with that said we're looking at the monthly chart here the dollar Swiss and this candle right here okay there's our September candle the low comes in at 9542 okay 9542 that's essentially about midpoint or the mean threshold of this last down closed candle that cleared out these equal lows so all we're doing is using the PD Matrix and are we looking at a premium Market or a discount Market at this moment here when price trades down that is a discount Market where should the market reach for well we have equal highs here we have equal highs here we also have equal highs here there's a large draw on liquidity here above these equal highs and we trade it back down into the mean threshold of an order block that would be deem foolish also we already cleared a level of stops so therefore this retracement should not come back down to this level here because we've already cleared a level of sell-side liquidity Market will look to expand to a buy side liquidity or in other words a liquidity pool above old highs so we would be looking for in September and going forward a rally of some sort around that 9545 to 9550 level so that's our rough idea okay 95 mid figures is called and that's just a guesstimation and that's how you would have done it before the actual low was formed also we have this buy side and Bounds from this candle's high at 9584 and so we could Reon expect to see that trade down to that as well the rebalance this buy side imbalance a sell-side delivery okay so we're going to drop down into a weekly chart and get a better read okay so now we're looking at the dollar Swiss on the weekly perspective and we see that equal lows that were rated here so the price should not continuously drop down here so for those that we question how would you know to anticipate a buy here and not see it trade down here or trade down to this order block right here we've already done the work by running the cell stops over here and they aggressively moved away your eye goes to what again think the pdra Matrix this down close candle is a bullish order block price should trade back down into that the open on this candle is 9547 okay so 9547 is the level we'd be looking for remember we started with 9550 midf figure relative to monthly bullish order block the mean threshold then we Dro down into a weekly and we refined it even further again not getting caught up and all of this drop down thinking okay it's the end of the world we're leaving these empty highs up here with all kinds of liquidity resting above that and longer term going back to the left as mentioned on the monthly chart if you look at the data in terms of discount to premium we are in a discount Market here relative to the high and the low okay so we're at equilibrium to Discount and we're also at a PD array in the form of a weekly bullish order block so if we add our data we add the order block now the question is is why am I not using the wick here if you look at all the price action here we had this Wick we had the body trade down through it here we had it Wick down into it here so to me the body is the the more focal point because of its only single down Clos candle here and then it's all up so this is where institutions bought and the algorithm will want to go back to that price point to allow more opportunity to go long from a longer term perspective so for position Trading you would wait for this opportunity here now in terms of the market maker sell model which would be seen here as consolidation rally away return to consolidation reaccumulation rally up distribution reaccumulation distribution and then a a longer term correction this would not need to come down here to clear this original consolidation over here because n is these equal loads have already ran out over here so the stops are gone remember the bullishness of the dollar seasonally and the weak seasonal tendency for the swissy is occurring September October so we're going to expect to see this pair of dollar swissy rally and the underlying narrative is there's liquidity resting above these highs and going back further to the left relative to that monthly chart as mentioned moments ago so this is where the market maker sell model picks up buying remember where there's times where the distribution cycle doesn't go redistribution redistribution then clearing the consolidation many times it'll accumulate over here in terms of the directional bias and that's what we saw here now the 9547 level this opening price of the down closed candle that's we see here and we're going to move over to this candle and get the actual low low comes in at 9542 so we're only off by five Pips using a weekly chart so we're going to drop down into a daily okay so now we have our daily chart here now we have a little bit more detail in terms of looking at what we would be expecting for shorter term trades in other words swing trade to shortterm we have a really nice equal high in here so Bop liquidity pool resting just above there as noted and as been shared before the fact back here we had price come back to the consolidation here with an up closed candle so they sold into this and then distribution came in they sold into this rally distribution one more time they sold into it and distribution making a smart money reversal then a lowrisk buy right here right in here so we're going to look at a 4our chart in a moment but say you missed this one okay you can be a day trader after this day here because there's indecisiveness but we already know the backdrop and narrative is we're at a weekly bullish order block with liquidity pools resting above the market during the seasonal tendency for the dollar to rally and swiss to fall so we could be using power three on this day here trading expecting the low the day of the form initially and then expansion on the upside for these equal highs and I tweeted at the time to look for these highs to be taken out and we saw that happen the very day it was tweeted price then continuously moves higher okay so you can use a day Traders model getting in here but using the narrative that that could be a shortterm ter trade entry looking for these highs to be taken out and then up into this candle here waiting for it to Rally through this up closed candle because this up closed candle because it was a sell side of the of the curve in other words this low here everything to the left of it any up closed candle should support price on the right side of the curve we're buying in this up close candle here right in here we should should expect to see upside expansion we see that next day we open trade down why did it do that we return back to these up closed candles here and here because they sold here they're going to mitigate that with this drop down that's what's going on so this is an area to buy again not requiring the market to come all the way back down to here it's not essential this is enough to get a buy again using power three expansion on the upside once this candle has been traded above over here we expect to see a retracement back down into this candle because again this is the distribution where they sold when price gets back above it later on think how the commercials trade they do a lot of hedging so they can buy in here and sell so the positions that they're short on they can mitigate that and they don't have a loss now the positions that they bought they want to add two they do it right here if we add a range here's our up closed candle draw that out across the curve and boom here we go price dips down into it picks up more orders after closing in an imbalance the high to low so we have a fair value Gap right in here price comes down to fair value One More Time runs the stops then expands on the upside equal highs have been taken equal highs have been taken the day trade entry you use down here you take profits off here because you could be wrong if price trades above here take a little bit off and it's TR trades down again you buy more so you add back a little bit that you took off here is that narrative is being further built upon this raid below this low here we don't see that as a market structure break to the lower end or downside why because the narrative has not changed we have yet to take out the equal highs here and on the weekly and monthly that buy side liquidity pool or pools are still intact so that's where the draw of liquidity is so when we see the market trade below and O low how we're using this price action model is we're using the higher time frame fractal with the seasonal Tendencies and the narrative that those buy stops in the form of a liquidity pool resting above equal highs on the weekly and monthly that's the long-term draw because the commercials are in agreement with that relative to the hedging program that I showed with the co data so when we see this low breached we could be a buyer of that okay so we can trade this in terms of of buying external range liquidity buying up the sell stops on a turtle soup type move and then rally away price takes out these equal highs you can take a little bit off there to pay the trader and then price creates another retracement lower price expands trades through it we open trade down into the order block again pick up more orders and then expands into the upside this to me looks like just near-term profit taking I don't think we're done uh if we do trade below these lows here then it's going to be problematic for the overall fractal but from a swing Trader or short-term Trader that used this entry here the stop loss would be moved below that low here because it's already been defended once twice after a stop run now this is a good level to put your stop below because it we've already done the work if it trades back down to that level it's no good okay it doesn't mean it can't go higher later on it just means that you know position management it's just good practice to do that now what does that mean for a Trader that wants to be a day trader we already went through a position Traders entry using a day Traders model for a short-term Trader and we looked at other short-term entries in here but as a day trader look at how many we have relative to the open and the low being near the low of the day in other words the large range days the low is formed very often with a very small Wick to the downside and the majority of the ranges are on the upside with expansion that's the fractal in in formation and the delivery of price we've used the macro element of higher time frame seasonal Tendencies and Coots so we Blended those three pillars which is smart money the high time frame narrative and institutional order flow and we Blended them with a clear repeating phenomenon the market maker buy and sell models they're very clear they're not ambiguous the things that we see on the left side will be applicable on the other side in other words wherever we see the turn the smart money reversal it's not imperative that you get that so if you see it in hindsight it's okay because it still gives you all the information so okay if I miss this low and starts to Rally here or rallies here who cares you know that these up Clos candles here are where the work's going to be done going forward attacking the liquidity above the market it's as simple as that now notice that it's framed on a seasonal tendency that we went over in the mentorship that means that you're going to be waiting for these to set up and then you're going to milk them for everything they're worth you can't take blood from a turnup obviously you can't you can't just go in there Willy nearly just trade anything you want you want high probability conditions you want high probability setups and the way you get those is using the seasonal Tendencies the commitment of Traders data to support the idea you know are the commercials in fact doing what we'd expect to see them do and then the technicals get in alignment as well so we're blending those three elements of commercial smart money interest the seasonal influence should it should it take place and then institutional orderflow using the PD arays and the PD Matrix everything's here nothing is missing and you saw me outline it you on Twitter Point everybody's attention to it the general public that follow me on Twitter they have no idea what's going on so if I were to post this chart not like this but if I said you know Market maker um buy model complete in their mind you're thinking okay now it's time to sell it that's not true what we're looking for is a continuation of this narrative to reach for those weekly equal highs and or longer term monthly weekly highs so from a position standpoint longterm you'd buy down here okay or you would look for an opportunity in here to get long and then you would use your low here as a stop or you could use the lows here as a stop because this whole work is done there's been displacement now the elephant has stepped in the children's pool the water has been displaced the evidence is there you they're in the market to you to take take it higher if we wanted to go even further we can drop down into a 4our chart okay so we have a 4our chart everything's still the same as it was shown on The Daily in here we have the last down closed candle that down closed candle is seeing here with an open at 9575 and a high of 9578 so if we trade it down to 9580 to 9578 in here after running through it with this candle we could be a buyer this candle here the low comes in at exactly 9578 we could use that as our entry point bullish orderer block stop below here and that could be your position entry that could be your short-term entry uh it could be your swing trade entry um it could be just a simple day trade as well but looking at this price action here you can see clearly the equal highs here and then we already noted over here this would be the next draw in liquidity so any entries that you take taken here run below this low here what would that be obviously we have the benefit of hindsight but again the narrative is we're looking for those weekly and monthly equal highs to be taken out because we're inside of a bullish see tendency for the dollar Index so anytime price trades below the lows what is that it's a turtle soup long okay it's external range liquidity they're running the stops here if it runs below there we expect to see acceleration to the upside does it show it yes there's a signature right there so now we know we're on the right side of the marketplace and we're following smart money and then we have another retracement back down into an area of liquidity so they ran the liquidity take it back a little bit more buy more acceleration on the upside now we're in this area look what we've done all of this is that daily up Clos candle where they sold short on the left side of the Curve Cur before we reversed it here so now they're mitigating all that that's why they held it in here mitigation mitigation mitigation they're covering the shorts and adding more Longs but they're doing it in small portions because they don't want to tip it off expansion the upside reaccumulation reaccumulation after running equal lows now think if they're going to run below the equal lows like I do here in an area of mitigation relative to that daily chart what should we see after this stop run on these stops right here acceleration to the upside small little acceleration or energy it should be energy behind that move and you see that here okay it runs equal highs reaches for liquidity ultimately sweeping above the shortterm equal highs mentioned on Twitter so we have many examples here but we're going to to get even further we're going to drop down into an hourly chart okay so we're looking at the hourly chart I'm going to add the day dividers in here and every time we see the double line that's a Sunday so the next um area is Mondays Tuesdays Wednesdays Thursdays and Fridays trading the return back to the order black in here on a Monday and then we had a Wednesday stop run below here so we're FOC fing on what if we're buying we want to be a buyer on Monday Tuesday and Wednesday Wednesday we have a run on stops from Tuesday's trading on that week that is not a market structure break to the downside retail is going to see that as resistance that further cells the idea to me with the market efficiency Paradigm that all we did was run the cell stops on uh Trail stops that maybe someone that bought low here or bought in here their stop loss is going to be trailed to here they Wick through that run their stops and then we see that energetic run to the upside we have the low of the week form on Monday here consolidation on Tuesday and then Wednesday expansion and then we have a Thursday consolidation week with equal lows formed rolled into the following week look what we do we drop back down into equal lows and on a Monday so we pick up the same narrative buying on Monday Tuesday Wednesday Monday we buy Tuesday we have a retracement back in the order block running stops again we don't see that as a Breakin Market structure we don't see that as a a bare flag we don't see that as a a bearish market uh coil where it should break down we see that as buying sell stops expansion to the upside next week we have Monday's low here rated on Tuesday once we see that trade below that did we see that as a market structural break no we see that as buying us sell stops and sell stops have been taken we expand on the upside and that's what we see here so if we add all that information from the Twitter zoom in a little bit there it is price action model number six I will talk with you again in price action model number s which will be just the opposite shown here and another pair until next time wish good luck and good Trading