Analysis of Empire Decline and Economics

what I'm going to say is going to upset you and so I want you to remember that I'm just the messenger I didn't make these things happen but I do want to honestly tell you because we live now in a weird time weirder and in different ways from what we were used to this country is in a time of Decline and when an Empire declines which is something we hadn't gone through because Empires don't decline very often but let me tell you from the history book a little bit we can tell it's not fun to be in a declining Empire much more fun when the Empire is going up which was the last century or a century and a half of this country the ride up we are now on the ride down we haven't been prepared because we have leaders who cannot say a word about that I want to just drive that home because the split in this country is really about that so let me start with the split in the obvious way and that's split is everywhere now and if you haven't noticed it yet you will because it's going to impact your life in all kinds of ways so one of them is a little bit about what a declining Empire means just to give you the context the United States lost the war in Vietnam when I say that in my classes my students look at me they never heard such a thought America as they know from the comic books they read as children only wins Wars it doesn't lose Wars but we lost the war was fought against the Communist Party of North Vietnam which has been running that country since the United States was driven out in 1975 go check all of this you will find I'm not making it up after we lost the war in Vietnam we went and had a big war in Afghanistan which we also lost that war was against the Taliban which now runs that country it's a good sign that you lost we lost the war in Iraq we are in the process of losing the war in Ukraine if I were in certain audiences I wouldn't dare say what I just said cuz they couldn't hear it they could not hear it but it is the reality let me give you a couple of more just bits of getting what decline means last week something happened on the part of a country called Indonesia I don't know if you're familiar with it it's a remarkable country in Asia made up of 18,000 Island in the Pacific it's a huge country the population of Indonesia is 280 million people makes it one of the largest countries in the world let me remind you the population United States is 330 million 280 isn't that far less than 330 it's an enormous thing what they did they joined the bricks they joined a full partner of the bricks Bricks by the way means it's the first letters of the countries Brazil Russia India China and South Africa a dozen years ago they began to form an alliance of what came to be called the global South to be independent relatively from the domination of the United States and the core economy there the biggest one the most powerful is sorry to tell you this I know it'll come as an upset the people Republic of China remember I'm the messenger I have no responsibility for this at all China and the bricks Indonesia joined them together now the Bricks Built around China have as the population of the countries that are part of the bricks about 22 countries now Al together they have about 55 to 60% of the population of the world are members what is the percentage of the world's population of the United States 4 1/2% you understand we are 4 1/2% they are 50 to 60% in the words of Mickey Mouse uh-oh those odds are not so good no matter how you cut it and as a group let me tell you how you cut it we in economics have this little game we ask what is the total output in goods and services in a year of a country gives us a kind of rough idea of how big a country it is how important its footprint is in the world okay so if you take the bricks together now they are about 35% maybe a bit more total output of the world if you add up each of those countries total output in a year and you add them up they account for 36% more or less of the world's output now let's compare that to the United States and its major allies those are called the G7 The Group of Seven United States Japan Canada Britain France Italy and Spain okay that used to be the dominant player of the world that used to be what World Trade meant what they did together they that's all of them now account for about 28% of the world's output do you understand the bricks is now what the United States was but is no more now if you're looking to where the wealth is you go east not West if you're a poor third world country is we used to call them and you need money for a bill railroad or you need to find places to sell your exports you direct your diplomats first to go to Beijing cuz that's where it's at if you can't get a good deal there well you might go to London or Washington but whatever you are doing you going to play them against each other you're going to say to the Americans oh that's the the best you offer H let's go the other place see what they offer you want to know why most of the railroads being built in Africa today are being built by the Chinese there's your answer they got a better deal everything is changing because of this except here where the make believe is the way this country is dealing with this denial we all know it from our personal lives right when we've lost a friend or a lover and we had to until all our friends told us what we couldn't face ourselves well we are the friends in this country who are being unable to vent that's why what Indonesia did last week is something I'm not going to ask how many of you noticed it because nobody will raise their hair how could you make believe made sure that that was not on the newspapers front page or in most newspapers on any page ever how many of you know that the Chinese are now the fast growing dominant economy in the world we're not we haven't been for a while every major high-tech firm in this country has an analog in China when we heard earlier that there was an offer by China and by Russia to work with the United States earlier which the United States turned down that's part of denial they didn't just turn it down then they turned it down now one more example and then I'll stop and tell you what this all means 15 years ago every automobile company on this planet went to work trying to develop what they understood was the next wave in that business which was putting aside the gasoline powered car and substituting an electric operated car or truck by the way not a rational response because it's terribly wasteful to have that vehicle which those of you who haven't noticed sits on the street or in the garage most of its life that's kind of let's use a fundamental word stupid it's stupid it's a waste of resources that car could serve 20 people each day if it were managed properly what do I mean managed properly well like a car rental business that's how they would manage that or those bicycles we can now just take off the rack and put back on that's a rational way if you want to avoid killing people which private cars do if you want to avoid air pollution cars are the major because of it and on and on rational would be to go from the private car to a mass transit efficient system a beautiful train every 5 minutes a beautiful bus even more beautiful every 3 minutes everywhere that's it infinitely cheaper much more efficient and none of you have to worry about it because wherever it's parked in the central Lots which we call car rental centers there would be paid mechanics who make sure they're in proper condition so the car would be in better shape better cared for the whole thing is nuts and who is the person who invented this crazy bad solution to the fuel burning car that genius who did this terrible thing Elon Musk that's what he did he found the way that automobile companies could make a profit by taking us out of gas cars into electric cars so 15 years ago all the car companies said hooray here's how we hold on to our profits by making these private cars for everybody and they all went to work to compete and there was a winner as of three years ago one company figured out how to make the best quality electric cars and trucks at the lowest price which is what competition is supposed to result and I'm sure you all know the name of this company it's the byd corporation now your faces give you away you never heard of this place or this thing what is it well what did I just tell you they won the competition for the entire new wave of cars and trucks moving across this planet every day by the millions and you never heard of them why because they move everywhere except here if you go to Europe right now you'll see them all over the roads byd and by the way other there's several Chinese car companies they're not the only one they're just the ones who did it best why don't you see them because we have a tariff started by Mr Trump raised by Mr Biden the Tariff on the Chinese electric vehicles is 100% so let me explain quickly what that means the Chinese produce this wonderful thing this electric vehicle and let's take a simple number $30,000 is what they cost from the car you're an American you need therefore to come up with $30,000 if for example you're a company that uses electric trucks to do part of your business it's an input you'd have to come up with $30,000 to get the truck and then you'd have to pay 100% another 30,000 will going to Uncle Sam Uncle Sam who put the Tariff tariff is just a word for a tax it's a word for a tax on an imported good or a service something that produced out of the country but brought in here for sale that's what an import is and tariff is the name of the tax you put on Imports we have been putting taxes on Imports as a nation from the beginning throughout the history there come nothing new about it but it's 100% which means an American would have to buy that truck by giving China 30 grand for the truck and Uncle Sam another 30 grand and so with 60 Grand you get the truck but of course no one does that why because Ford and General Motors and Tesla will sell you an electric car or truck for a mere 40 Grand or 50 Grand or something like that so who's helped by this Ford and general mots they wouldn't be able to sell their crappy cars otherwise we would none of us buy A4 or $50,000 electric car if we're going to do that and give byd 30,000 for a better car rather than 40 or 50,000 to General Motors however patriotic we might feel and you know who knows it Ford and General Motors so they went to the president they said put that tariff there it'll protect us of course they didn't say our profits which is the truth it'll protect jobs whenever you hear a capitalist tell you about what they're doing to protect jobs hold on to your wallet someone's reaching why is it false because this is a terrible act for most American Producers think of yourself as a maker of shirts or of chairs or of software programs you would like to buy the trucks you need to bring in your inputs to sell and distribute your outputs you're going to have to buy electric trucks you'd like to buy the best one at the lowest price of course you're competing with Enterprises in France and in Germany and in Brazil and in Nigeria and fill in the blank they're all buying byd cars at 30 grand you have to pay 40 or 50 to General Motors you know what that means they're going to defeat you economically you're going to be loser and when you lose you're going to lay off your workers because you can't compete with the companies that can buy the biggest the best and the cheapest electric vehicle now multiply this by dozens of other Commodities China is winning we are losing don't tell anyone because you live in a country which is pretending to ex that none of this is going on it's either never discussed or we turn it around and we say the Chinese are becoming aggressive in the world huh they're doing what exactly we did you know how United States became a big powerful country by doing to Europe what the Chinese are doing to us it's not new it's not different the only question is why would it be surprising what a strange behavior is going on here now where is this taking us we remarkably alienated from the conventional Republican and Democratic parties they didn't feel those parties were doing much for them which is true that those parties weren't protecting them from a decline they couldn't quite pinpoint but they felt particularly over the last 30 years their budgets were squeezed you might have noticed that 40 years ago the level of household debt in this country was small nowadays everybody is loaded with debt I can add if you're interested that corporate debt is at a higher level than it's ever been in our country and government debt in other words we are a country in debt on a scale we didn't imagine 10 years ago let alone think we would have now there's a name for companies that have been for several years so deeply in debt that they don't make enough profit ready to service their debt that is to pay the interest and the portion they have to repay now we have a special name in economics for them I kid you not I didn't make this up zombie corporations because they're dead they're economically defunct you know how they manage to survive when their profits aren't enough to cover their debts they take on more debt to pay the debt they couldn't otherwise cover uhoh that makes them more zombie is next year than they were this year which is what's happening you might wonder who lends money to all these indebted people businesses and government well let me start with the government CU if you thought the world was crazy before weit don't get this the two biggest creditors of the United States government are Japan and China Japan Number One China number two a few years ago it was the other way China was number one Japan was number two United States is the biggest deor country in the world by countries the second biggest creditor of the United States is the biggest debtor is the the People's Republic of China do you understand the United States owes China $850 billion roughly it has to pay interest of course on that debt like it has to pay on others which means I'm here to tell you that a portion of the taxes every one of you in this room pays when you buy a bottle of beer or you smoke a cigarette or you pay your taxes a portion of that money you should be very pleased is collected by the United States government not used for houses or medical care or student loans but shipped to China as interest on the debt to enable them to build their military capacity to fight the United States hello I didn't make this up on the other hand think of it this way these kinds of loans from Japan from China enable the United States government to spend all the money Dr Leon told us about in Ukraine without having to tax us because you know what would bring the war in Ukraine to an end in about 10 maybe 11 seconds if Americans had to pay for it but we don't the Chinese and the Russians and China by the way supports Russia against Ukraine but lends government money to the United States which pays for the ukrainians whoa you think you ought to pay respect to a system working like this think we are in a completely different world than we once were the Empire is declining we are not strong we are weak we don't produce the bulk of the world's output we don't control the bulk of the World's Trade the US dollar which in 1950s 607s was the Global Currency dominating all others isn't anymore central banks around the country which used to hold dollars as in for their own currencies and their own countries because the dollar was as good as gold it isn't anymore so the dollar from being 70 80% of the reserves held by central banks is now about 40% still important we're still in a big industrial power but nothing like we were now Mr Trump understood that in this changing World Americans were being squeezed and he was right about there and you should understand that we're still in that situation and Mr Trump is President because of it here's how it works every Empire as it goes down has the following procedure of handling it the people at the top the rich and the powerful respond to the decline by saying oh this is terrible but not for me the top always offloads the difficulties and burdens of of a decline onto those people less powerful and less Rich than themselves the emperor in Rome didn't suffer the way the average people did the emperor in Persia or the emperor in Greece it doesn't matter all the empires show the same phenomena those at the top hold on work harder than they used to to hold on cuz they no damn well it's going down and who can't do that are the people who don't have much power and the people who don't have much wealth and so the working class has to be one way or another squeezed as you go down and we you me we're all being squeezed and in our naive we turn to the Republican and Democratic party protect us they can't oh they'll tell you whatever you want to hear you know that we live in that but they can't do anything because the only real thing to do would be to say honestly to the people well our Empire is going down it's going to be a hard thing and maybe we all ought to get together to try to get through this difficulty together oh that would be an interesting idea would have a name like I don't know socialism that would be rational but we don't live rational how do you squeeze the mass of people a lot of ways it's a little bit like that famous poem you know how do I lovely let me count the ways how am I going to screw to working class let me count the ways so for 40 or 50 years we make make sure that unions can't function they can't do what they were invented to do help the workers get a better deal not going to get that we're going to demonize unions we're going to make every Union look like it's you know that movie on the waterfront a bunch of crooks that are grabbing your dos every week etc etc you've been living your life in that kind of an environment it's changed the last few years as working people begin to get it and they are that's part of what this meeting is a sign of beginning the Starbucks workers are beginning and the Amazon workers are beginning the labor movement is kind of coming back to life but it's coming late in the process of squeezing the working class here's another way you squeeze the working class you have this thing what you say is some kind of mystery it's called an inflation what an inflation sounds like something you do to a balloon what is it inflation in economics just means prices are going up but now let's be a little bit more careful if you know anything about the inflation of the last few years here's a little statistic the inflation has gone up faster than average wages and salaries of people okay now I'm going do this very difficult arithmetic if the money you have to spend your wages and salaries are not going up as fast as the prices they're going to be things you can't afford anymore you know really special expensive things like eggs what but will someone honestly tell you that the inflation is a way of squeezing The Works not you look long and hard you won't get it the inflation in eggs is due to bird flu huh what I'm talking to people I'm not going to be mean but half of you believe that and the other half of you think it might be true here's what an inflation is it's a decision made by some people to jack up the price you have to pay for the things they can control the prices of who sets prices in a capitalist economy answer the employer those of you who have had jobs all your life as workers do you ever recall being called into an office to add your opinion as to what the price should be of what you help to produce never happen the United States census tells us 3% of Americans are employers welcome to the other 97% that's you and me the employer set the prices we pay them when they jack up the price that's because they want to give us fewer of whatever it is they make for the money we have to give them it's a way of screwing the working class and that's how it's been used in the last few years and all these economics professors including many of mine and people I know sit around debating how are we going to control the inflation is what is it how does it happen I sit there I'm one of their students and I really want I want to run up there and you know hit them over the head with a pingpong paddle what are you doing what is this noise coming out of your mouth and then their decision which really at this point I hope I'm getting to you you're getting upset their decision is we're going to deal with it by ra raing interest rates oh wow this is wonderful who gets screwed when you raise an interest rate in case you're not rich yourself I'm going to tell you it's not rich people they don't give a flying well whether the interest rate is 2% 6% they're rich that's what it means to be rich you don't care but you have to care because it's going to mean that that little bit of money at the end of the month that you have to pay on your credit card is going to be bigger than it was before and everything works like that the rich don't care you know what that's like it's like I'm going to stick it to you now for a moment congestion pricing oh good we have a problem in New York with traffic this should come as hot news it's it's only been true for a century and we're going to finally do something oh really yeah what we're going to tax everybody the same what the same a rich person who will not give a damn and the poor person for whom this adds up as a extra Buck or two every time you do something if you have to come in and out of Manhattan etc etc only an American politician who's just seen what inflation has done to people would come up with that solution and by the way raising interest rates cuz I can see perked some of your interest is that the only way to deal with an inflation of course not why did you ever think it answer because that's what you were fed all the time in all the media the last time the United States had an inflation as bad as the one a couple years ago right was back in the late' 70s and 80s we had funded the war in Vietnam by printing a lot of money because otherwise the people would have revolted against it if you'd said to everybody we're having a war in Vietnam is going to cost every family a couple th a year with end of War so we borrowed we printed money and we borrowed and then we had the terrible inflation and then a Conservative Republican president Richard Nixon went on the television August 15th 1971 and said I'm going to do something about this terrible inflation oh good there was tremendous suffering in the country and a lot of pressure and put that together with the problems with the war mhm he had to do something so he declared a wage price freeze that day 15th of August as of tomorrow morning he said this Conservative Republican president who became president by becoming the champion of anti-communism as of tomorrow morning he said any business that raises its prices we will come for you we will arrest you and you go to jail guess what the next morning inflation vanished amazing are you surprised shouldn't be is this a story about how you controlling inflation yeah did it work yeah did it happen in United States yeah do you know about it no and the people at the Federal Reserve who decide interest rates they made sure not to ask about it not to talk about it not to debate it let me give you another example CU I think that perked some of your interest in the early 1940s the United States decided to enter and fight World War II and the economists who by the way included a significant number of marxists and socialists cuz in the 1940s they would be hired by President Roosevelt at the time because they were considered the most reliable anti-nazis anti-fascists so people like Dal braith whose name you may know Paul Sweezy Harry magdorf people very important people on the left of American economics were working in Washington and they went to Roosevelt and they said okay you got a problem you're about to fight a war you're going to move all these resources factories railroads to work on a war Supply the army supply the Navy and fight a war and those resources are therefore not going to be a available to produce food clothing shelter consumer goods so we're going to have a shortage of consumer goods since we're using these resources a large number of them to fight a war and here's the problem with that president if there's a shortage of goods for the mass of people who presumably will still want to buy Underpants and shoes and coasters and all the other things of life with a shortage we got a problem and then the president said well what's our problem said the market system the president was confused I said I thought we were supposed to be for that yeah but we can't afford it in a war why not they had to explain to him just like I'm doing now with you if there's a sudden shortage then there won't be enough toasters or ice cream cones or fill in the blank and you know what happens in a market economy when there's scarcity of goods the people with the money offer more you'll come with your dollar to the ice cream vendor in the park and you got your two little kids with you and you want to buy them on ice cream cone and you hand him two bucks for the two cones and he looks at you and says I only got four cones left and before you can respond the person next to you who you can tell by his outfit is much better healed than you says I offer you $5 for each cone guess who gets the cones if you have a shortage a market system is a system that allocates whatever is scarce to the people with the most money those of you who think of yourself as moral or ethical ought to think about why you support a market system that does what I just said really that's what you want you want to live in an economy that distributes whatever is scarce to people with the most money you know what that means it means that the little bit of milk will be purchased at a high price by the nice rich couple who gives it to their cat but it will not be affordable to the poor couple who needs it for their children it's how the market Works Jack you're supposed to love the market you're supposed to believe it's efficient it never was that is that kind of argument is what we in Academia call but it works Mr Trump has become president because he knew knew that the mass of the American people were being squeezed and that the conventional Republicans and Democrats weren't doing squat about it and he said I'm Different watch me I'm going to be outrageous I'm going to say the things that were quoted earlier not quietly and under the table where is usually done but big and loud and open all about it watch me and when you got two parties that aren't doing anything for you and you're feeling feeling very squeezed you give your vote to somebody different after all why not the Democrats had the equivalent you all know his name Bernie he was the different on the other end the politician who for the first time in half of century didn't run away from the name socialist had he Wun he would have picked up that same different maybe let's go with him but the Democrats shut down their only chance and look at them they suffered the results Mr Trump there's no reason for any of us to imagine he's going to change he's going to be Mr different that's what he does and you can already see it the Israelis made a decision to Hitch their wagon with the United States they made that decision many years ago faithful decision good in the short run a disaster in the long run and that disaster has now come full circle they're identified in the whole world as a complicit partner in what was done in Gaza the Israelis went into Gaza to defeat and Destroy Hamas didn't work to defeat or eject the Palestinian people didn't work and all that happened two days ago was a decision by the United States upon which it depends to cut its relationship with a losing proposition it's ugly all around it will not save the United States from being identified as complicit with all that happened there and the books and articles and documentaries about it will be with us for the next generation and Hamas it will inherit the rage and the fury of 2 and 1 half million residents of Gaza who have watched their mother their father their children the young people that are coming are going to be a much greater danger to Israel than the old Hamas ever was this is a disaster and most of the world sees it that's why the votes in the US a lopsided 150 countries on the side of the Palestinians 25 extensions of the United States Israel and the Canary Islands I mean is silly it's a silly spectacle but that's another sign of a country going down last example Ukraine the problems in Ukraine begin with the dissolution of the Soviet Union back in 1989 1990 Ukraine a major part of what used to be the Soviet Union particularly important in Grain growing very very rich soil so forth lot of finagling of the countries of the West NATO moving Eastward threatening Russia and all that I won't P you with the rehis and then to stop what was happening after NATO took over in Poland in Czechoslovakia and all the rest Mr Putin and the Russians said no not Ukraine not the eastern part of Ukraine which is majority Russian and Russian speaking Russian language Russian culture and so on and the United States says oh oh good you invaded that's a bad thing we can mobilize the whole world around the bad thing of a big country invading a little country that sounds good that was already a mistake because what was Afghanistan a big country invading a little poor country what was Vietnam a big country invading a the position of the United States as going to war around the principle of a big country shouldn't invade a little country sounds a little Hollow coming from the United States except of course here where the denial is the governing Spirit of the country and the United States decides to go in for and round up the usual Europeans to go with you okay how do you fight the war and this goes to something said before and I want to conclude with the United States is caught in the decline discovering that the decline trumps everything else and don't mean to be clever by using the word trumps the nuclear weapons of the United States are useless the enormity of them useless why because if you dared use them in new CR the other side has them too and will use them and that made that quite clear so you can't because it's self-destructive that's out but what do you have conventional Warfare but then you got another problem the Russians are better equipped for that than you are the Russians also have a history in case you're not familiar with it Napoleon thought he could defeat Russia he couldn't Hitler thought he could defeat Russia he couldn't invading Russia has turned out to be or fighting Russia a really bad idea but the United States used to fighting such powerhouses as the poorest countries on Earth Vietnam Afghanistan didn't make the adjustment so it can't fight it realized that within months so it came up with the great plan the genius of Mr blinkin or Jake Sullivan or other people who I hope whose names mean nothing to you cuz he sure mean nothing historically here's what their great strategy was a war of sanctions oh we will get the Russians we will I'm now quoting President Biden reduce the ruble to Rubble somebody with poetic genius gave him that one the rubble will become rubble and Russia will fall to its knees what wonderful images right up there with Mickey and other mouses in the American Consciousness and they did they stopped the Europeans if you know the story stopped buying oil and gas from Russia which is a major export of the Russian economy that would Russia was the idea problem Russia is part of the [Music] bricks and the Russians went to the Chinese and the Indians and said they won't buy our oil and gas we need to sell the oil and gas how about you buy our oil and gas done said Mr Modi done s xiin ping and thereby the American strategy went along with everything else into the toilet didn't work total fa Russian rubles fine Russian economy in case you don't know has grown faster over the last two years than the American economy has which should surprise no one cuz remember how we as a nation got out of difficult Economic Times known as the Great Depression we went to war in World War II we took half our unemployed people and put them in uniform and we took the other half of the unemployed and gave them jobs making a uniform and that's how we solv with that's how we did it turns out War amans help solve economic problems we should have known cuz that's what we did but we couldn't imagine it these failures of imagination these are the signs of economic powerful decline so if you really want to understand where we are it doesn't depend on anything Mr Trump does that's the important thing to understand don't get caught up in that Mr Biden's influence on the economic conditions of our society are marginal Mr Trump's at his first presidency were marginal most of the things he boasted about he couldn't do he built a wall you know along the Mexican border more Mexicans came not fewer that was 100% bust now he's proposing as you probably know and as I heard as I was coming over here today that ice is going to be raiding cities Across America and throwing people into Mexico yeah he may do some of that maybe he'll do a lot of it who knows if he actually does it if he actually takes the 10 to 15 undocumented immigrants in the United States and puts them in Mexico we're going to have meetings like this only it's going to be about Mexico Mexico lives off the remittances the money earned by Mexican people here that they're sending back to their mother their father their children back home and that flow of money is an absolute blessing to Mexico it doesn't have to sell anything it doesn't have to export anything it just gets the money shipped by its exp Patriots here imagine that suddenly gets stopped because they're not here anymore they lost their job and they were deported back to Mexico but it gets worse they're arriving in Mexico at a time when Mr Trump is threatening them or hitting them with tariffs which is killing the market Mexico had in the United States its biggest buyer of its output including many automobiles made by Ford and General Motors in Mex meico for export here those goods are not going to be able to come in here without a tariff which means we're not going to be buying them which means the Mexicans are going to be laying people off when when the money from remittances isn't coming and the millions are coming looking for the work that will not be there you know what that's going to make out of Mexico a disaster that's going to remind everyone else of the sad country of Haiti a disaster of gangs and po American tourism there bye-bye that's the kind of chaos that's coming out of the denial the war in Ukraine is lost because the Russians can fight forever and for those of you who pay attention you may have noticed you should have that the Russian army is many many miles into Ukraine it's very clear who's winning and very clear who's losing except here so my parting final words most of what's about to happen is not about Mr Trump or what he does or doesn't do his capacity for saying one thing and doing another is already legendary you don't need me to remind you of it but whatever he in fact does is marginal most of what is going to happen to you and me is going to depend on two things one what the rest of the world does as it watches and navigates the decline of the American Empire so actually more important what ji jingping and Mr Modi and Lula in Brazil and so forth and so on and that remarkable woman who's now the head of Mexico who has her her work cut out for her she has a very famous Hispanic name shine bound is her name but she's the one to watch cuz what she does faced with what I've just described to you that's going to be powerful whatever it is so it's the outside that's going to affect us more than our own political leaders because we don't have the power and they don't anymore plus we are so lost in denial that we don't know what we're doing that's why we miscalculated in Ukraine they're out of touch not just with the American people but with the world reality watch them this morning I read a story in a major American financial newspaper about the international monetary fund saying that the United States would grow 2.7% in the year 2024 and thereby lead the world economy I couldn't believe it it's so gross by the way the number is correct 2.7% is what the IMF has now said but that's not leading the world economy that's lousy Chinese growth this year will be 5% and the Indian growth will be seven United States isn't leading anything except here in its own weird mentality and what's the other thing the second thing beside the outside dominating the inside it's you we are the unknown will the American people allow themselves to be the ones who get screwed as this Empire passes it's the same question that the British working class had to face when the British Empire collapsed over the last century we whether women building up or formally incarcerated people will they get together will they make movements will they make demands with they make coalitions with one another to realize those demands that's the Wild Card Everywhere by the way there are think tanks All Over America that are asking the same question they're worried is the labor movement waking up in a way that could change all of this people were being worked at unbelievable stress in Amazon warehouse for years or in Starbucks coffee shops for years but in the last 2 or 3 years enough is enough no more we're going to we're going to that remarkable group there Smalls and folks out there in Staten Island that that's a remarkable and has had effects everywhere else the Boeing workers on the west coast rejected three contracts before they accepted the one that they F which was better than the ones that they had rejected the labor movement that's the question if this gives you a swell head that's my point it is more in your hands than you think of because in addition to saving yourselves if it's a time of decline if the people who run this Society are so busy denying it refusing to face it as I've tried to show you then we are stronger than we might suspect and they are weaker than they might feel confident about and that's a good time for us to act the conditions are pretty good not terrible as some of my fellow leftists are worrying about of course we have problems and difficulty I'm not pretending otherwise but we all o have an historical moment that the old Cold War mentality that everything to the left is evil Bad won't work is dead that generation died and took it with him young people today don't have that mentality they're much more open to what it is

what I'm going to say is going to upset you and so I want you to remember that I'm just the messenger I didn't make these things happen but I do want to honestly tell you because we live now in a weird time weirder and in different ways from what we were used to this country is in a time of Decline and when an Empire declines which is something we hadn't gone through because Empires don't decline very often but let me tell you from the history book a little bit we can tell it's not fun to be in a declining Empire much more fun when the Empire is going up which was the last century or a century and a half of this country the ride up we are now on the ride down we haven't been prepared because we have leaders who cannot say a word about that I want to just drive that home because the split in this country is really about that so let me start with the split in the obvious way and that's split is everywhere now and if you haven't noticed it yet you will because it's going to impact your life in all kinds of ways so one of them is a little bit about what a declining Empire means just to give you the context the United States lost the war in Vietnam when I say that in my classes my students look at me they never heard such a thought America as they know from the comic books they read as children only wins Wars it doesn't lose Wars but we lost the war was fought against the Communist Party of North Vietnam which has been running that country since the United States was driven out in 1975 go check all of this you will find I'm not making it up after we lost the war in Vietnam we went and had a big war in Afghanistan which we also lost that war was against the Taliban which now runs that country it's a good sign that you lost we lost the war in Iraq we are in the process of losing the war in Ukraine if I were in certain audiences I wouldn't dare say what I just said cuz they couldn't hear it they could not hear it but it is the reality let me give you a couple of more just bits of getting what decline means last week something happened on the part of a country called Indonesia I don't know if you're familiar with it it's a remarkable country in Asia made up of 18,000 Island in the Pacific it's a huge country the population of Indonesia is 280 million people makes it one of the largest countries in the world let me remind you the population United States is 330 million 280 isn't that far less than 330 it's an enormous thing what they did they joined the bricks they joined a full partner of the bricks Bricks by the way means it's the first letters of the countries Brazil Russia India China and South Africa a dozen years ago they began to form an alliance of what came to be called the global South to be independent relatively from the domination of the United States and the core economy there the biggest one the most powerful is sorry to tell you this I know it'll come as an upset the people Republic of China remember I'm the messenger I have no responsibility for this at all China and the bricks Indonesia joined them together now the Bricks Built around China have as the population of the countries that are part of the bricks about 22 countries now Al together they have about 55 to 60% of the population of the world are members what is the percentage of the world's population of the United States 4 1/2% you understand we are 4 1/2% they are 50 to 60% in the words of Mickey Mouse uh-oh those odds are not so good no matter how you cut it and as a group let me tell you how you cut it we in economics have this little game we ask what is the total output in goods and services in a year of a country gives us a kind of rough idea of how big a country it is how important its footprint is in the world okay so if you take the bricks together now they are about 35% maybe a bit more total output of the world if you add up each of those countries total output in a year and you add them up they account for 36% more or less of the world's output now let's compare that to the United States and its major allies those are called the G7 The Group of Seven United States Japan Canada Britain France Italy and Spain okay that used to be the dominant player of the world that used to be what World Trade meant what they did together they that's all of them now account for about 28% of the world's output do you understand the bricks is now what the United States was but is no more now if you're looking to where the wealth is you go east not West if you're a poor third world country is we used to call them and you need money for a bill railroad or you need to find places to sell your exports you direct your diplomats first to go to Beijing cuz that's where it's at if you can't get a good deal there well you might go to London or Washington but whatever you are doing you going to play them against each other you're going to say to the Americans oh that's the the best you offer H let's go the other place see what they offer you want to know why most of the railroads being built in Africa today are being built by the Chinese there's your answer they got a better deal everything is changing because of this except here where the make believe is the way this country is dealing with this denial we all know it from our personal lives right when we've lost a friend or a lover and we had to until all our friends told us what we couldn't face ourselves well we are the friends in this country who are being unable to vent that's why what Indonesia did last week is something I'm not going to ask how many of you noticed it because nobody will raise their hair how could you make believe made sure that that was not on the newspapers front page or in most newspapers on any page ever how many of you know that the Chinese are now the fast growing dominant economy in the world we're not we haven't been for a while every major high-tech firm in this country has an analog in China when we heard earlier that there was an offer by China and by Russia to work with the United States earlier which the United States turned down that's part of denial they didn't just turn it down then they turned it down now one more example and then I'll stop and tell you what this all means 15 years ago every automobile company on this planet went to work trying to develop what they understood was the next wave in that business which was putting aside the gasoline powered car and substituting an electric operated car or truck by the way not a rational response because it's terribly wasteful to have that vehicle which those of you who haven't noticed sits on the street or in the garage most of its life that's kind of let's use a fundamental word stupid it's stupid it's a waste of resources that car could serve 20 people each day if it were managed properly what do I mean managed properly well like a car rental business that's how they would manage that or those bicycles we can now just take off the rack and put back on that's a rational way if you want to avoid killing people which private cars do if you want to avoid air pollution cars are the major because of it and on and on rational would be to go from the private car to a mass transit efficient system a beautiful train every 5 minutes a beautiful bus even more beautiful every 3 minutes everywhere that's it infinitely cheaper much more efficient and none of you have to worry about it because wherever it's parked in the central Lots which we call car rental centers there would be paid mechanics who make sure they're in proper condition so the car would be in better shape better cared for the whole thing is nuts and who is the person who invented this crazy bad solution to the fuel burning car that genius who did this terrible thing Elon Musk that's what he did he found the way that automobile companies could make a profit by taking us out of gas cars into electric cars so 15 years ago all the car companies said hooray here's how we hold on to our profits by making these private cars for everybody and they all went to work to compete and there was a winner as of three years ago one company figured out how to make the best quality electric cars and trucks at the lowest price which is what competition is supposed to result and I'm sure you all know the name of this company it's the byd corporation now your faces give you away you never heard of this place or this thing what is it well what did I just tell you they won the competition for the entire new wave of cars and trucks moving across this planet every day by the millions and you never heard of them why because they move everywhere except here if you go to Europe right now you'll see them all over the roads byd and by the way other there's several Chinese car companies they're not the only one they're just the ones who did it best why don't you see them because we have a tariff started by Mr Trump raised by Mr Biden the Tariff on the Chinese electric vehicles is 100% so let me explain quickly what that means the Chinese produce this wonderful thing this electric vehicle and let's take a simple number $30,000 is what they cost from the car you're an American you need therefore to come up with $30,000 if for example you're a company that uses electric trucks to do part of your business it's an input you'd have to come up with $30,000 to get the truck and then you'd have to pay 100% another 30,000 will going to Uncle Sam Uncle Sam who put the Tariff tariff is just a word for a tax it's a word for a tax on an imported good or a service something that produced out of the country but brought in here for sale that's what an import is and tariff is the name of the tax you put on Imports we have been putting taxes on Imports as a nation from the beginning throughout the history there come nothing new about it but it's 100% which means an American would have to buy that truck by giving China 30 grand for the truck and Uncle Sam another 30 grand and so with 60 Grand you get the truck but of course no one does that why because Ford and General Motors and Tesla will sell you an electric car or truck for a mere 40 Grand or 50 Grand or something like that so who's helped by this Ford and general mots they wouldn't be able to sell their crappy cars otherwise we would none of us buy A4 or $50,000 electric car if we're going to do that and give byd 30,000 for a better car rather than 40 or 50,000 to General Motors however patriotic we might feel and you know who knows it Ford and General Motors so they went to the president they said put that tariff there it'll protect us of course they didn't say our profits which is the truth it'll protect jobs whenever you hear a capitalist tell you about what they're doing to protect jobs hold on to your wallet someone's reaching why is it false because this is a terrible act for most American Producers think of yourself as a maker of shirts or of chairs or of software programs you would like to buy the trucks you need to bring in your inputs to sell and distribute your outputs you're going to have to buy electric trucks you'd like to buy the best one at the lowest price of course you're competing with Enterprises in France and in Germany and in Brazil and in Nigeria and fill in the blank they're all buying byd cars at 30 grand you have to pay 40 or 50 to General Motors you know what that means they're going to defeat you economically you're going to be loser and when you lose you're going to lay off your workers because you can't compete with the companies that can buy the biggest the best and the cheapest electric vehicle now multiply this by dozens of other Commodities China is winning we are losing don't tell anyone because you live in a country which is pretending to ex that none of this is going on it's either never discussed or we turn it around and we say the Chinese are becoming aggressive in the world huh they're doing what exactly we did you know how United States became a big powerful country by doing to Europe what the Chinese are doing to us it's not new it's not different the only question is why would it be surprising what a strange behavior is going on here now where is this taking us we remarkably alienated from the conventional Republican and Democratic parties they didn't feel those parties were doing much for them which is true that those parties weren't protecting them from a decline they couldn't quite pinpoint but they felt particularly over the last 30 years their budgets were squeezed you might have noticed that 40 years ago the level of household debt in this country was small nowadays everybody is loaded with debt I can add if you're interested that corporate debt is at a higher level than it's ever been in our country and government debt in other words we are a country in debt on a scale we didn't imagine 10 years ago let alone think we would have now there's a name for companies that have been for several years so deeply in debt that they don't make enough profit ready to service their debt that is to pay the interest and the portion they have to repay now we have a special name in economics for them I kid you not I didn't make this up zombie corporations because they're dead they're economically defunct you know how they manage to survive when their profits aren't enough to cover their debts they take on more debt to pay the debt they couldn't otherwise cover uhoh that makes them more zombie is next year than they were this year which is what's happening you might wonder who lends money to all these indebted people businesses and government well let me start with the government CU if you thought the world was crazy before weit don't get this the two biggest creditors of the United States government are Japan and China Japan Number One China number two a few years ago it was the other way China was number one Japan was number two United States is the biggest deor country in the world by countries the second biggest creditor of the United States is the biggest debtor is the the People's Republic of China do you understand the United States owes China $850 billion roughly it has to pay interest of course on that debt like it has to pay on others which means I'm here to tell you that a portion of the taxes every one of you in this room pays when you buy a bottle of beer or you smoke a cigarette or you pay your taxes a portion of that money you should be very pleased is collected by the United States government not used for houses or medical care or student loans but shipped to China as interest on the debt to enable them to build their military capacity to fight the United States hello I didn't make this up on the other hand think of it this way these kinds of loans from Japan from China enable the United States government to spend all the money Dr Leon told us about in Ukraine without having to tax us because you know what would bring the war in Ukraine to an end in about 10 maybe 11 seconds if Americans had to pay for it but we don't the Chinese and the Russians and China by the way supports Russia against Ukraine but lends government money to the United States which pays for the ukrainians whoa you think you ought to pay respect to a system working like this think we are in a completely different world than we once were the Empire is declining we are not strong we are weak we don't produce the bulk of the world's output we don't control the bulk of the World's Trade the US dollar which in 1950s 607s was the Global Currency dominating all others isn't anymore central banks around the country which used to hold dollars as in for their own currencies and their own countries because the dollar was as good as gold it isn't anymore so the dollar from being 70 80% of the reserves held by central banks is now about 40% still important we're still in a big industrial power but nothing like we were now Mr Trump understood that in this changing World Americans were being squeezed and he was right about there and you should understand that we're still in that situation and Mr Trump is President because of it here's how it works every Empire as it goes down has the following procedure of handling it the people at the top the rich and the powerful respond to the decline by saying oh this is terrible but not for me the top always offloads the difficulties and burdens of of a decline onto those people less powerful and less Rich than themselves the emperor in Rome didn't suffer the way the average people did the emperor in Persia or the emperor in Greece it doesn't matter all the empires show the same phenomena those at the top hold on work harder than they used to to hold on cuz they no damn well it's going down and who can't do that are the people who don't have much power and the people who don't have much wealth and so the working class has to be one way or another squeezed as you go down and we you me we're all being squeezed and in our naive we turn to the Republican and Democratic party protect us they can't oh they'll tell you whatever you want to hear you know that we live in that but they can't do anything because the only real thing to do would be to say honestly to the people well our Empire is going down it's going to be a hard thing and maybe we all ought to get together to try to get through this difficulty together oh that would be an interesting idea would have a name like I don't know socialism that would be rational but we don't live rational how do you squeeze the mass of people a lot of ways it's a little bit like that famous poem you know how do I lovely let me count the ways how am I going to screw to working class let me count the ways so for 40 or 50 years we make make sure that unions can't function they can't do what they were invented to do help the workers get a better deal not going to get that we're going to demonize unions we're going to make every Union look like it's you know that movie on the waterfront a bunch of crooks that are grabbing your dos every week etc etc you've been living your life in that kind of an environment it's changed the last few years as working people begin to get it and they are that's part of what this meeting is a sign of beginning the Starbucks workers are beginning and the Amazon workers are beginning the labor movement is kind of coming back to life but it's coming late in the process of squeezing the working class here's another way you squeeze the working class you have this thing what you say is some kind of mystery it's called an inflation what an inflation sounds like something you do to a balloon what is it inflation in economics just means prices are going up but now let's be a little bit more careful if you know anything about the inflation of the last few years here's a little statistic the inflation has gone up faster than average wages and salaries of people okay now I'm going do this very difficult arithmetic if the money you have to spend your wages and salaries are not going up as fast as the prices they're going to be things you can't afford anymore you know really special expensive things like eggs what but will someone honestly tell you that the inflation is a way of squeezing The Works not you look long and hard you won't get it the inflation in eggs is due to bird flu huh what I'm talking to people I'm not going to be mean but half of you believe that and the other half of you think it might be true here's what an inflation is it's a decision made by some people to jack up the price you have to pay for the things they can control the prices of who sets prices in a capitalist economy answer the employer those of you who have had jobs all your life as workers do you ever recall being called into an office to add your opinion as to what the price should be of what you help to produce never happen the United States census tells us 3% of Americans are employers welcome to the other 97% that's you and me the employer set the prices we pay them when they jack up the price that's because they want to give us fewer of whatever it is they make for the money we have to give them it's a way of screwing the working class and that's how it's been used in the last few years and all these economics professors including many of mine and people I know sit around debating how are we going to control the inflation is what is it how does it happen I sit there I'm one of their students and I really want I want to run up there and you know hit them over the head with a pingpong paddle what are you doing what is this noise coming out of your mouth and then their decision which really at this point I hope I'm getting to you you're getting upset their decision is we're going to deal with it by ra raing interest rates oh wow this is wonderful who gets screwed when you raise an interest rate in case you're not rich yourself I'm going to tell you it's not rich people they don't give a flying well whether the interest rate is 2% 6% they're rich that's what it means to be rich you don't care but you have to care because it's going to mean that that little bit of money at the end of the month that you have to pay on your credit card is going to be bigger than it was before and everything works like that the rich don't care you know what that's like it's like I'm going to stick it to you now for a moment congestion pricing oh good we have a problem in New York with traffic this should come as hot news it's it's only been true for a century and we're going to finally do something oh really yeah what we're going to tax everybody the same what the same a rich person who will not give a damn and the poor person for whom this adds up as a extra Buck or two every time you do something if you have to come in and out of Manhattan etc etc only an American politician who's just seen what inflation has done to people would come up with that solution and by the way raising interest rates cuz I can see perked some of your interest is that the only way to deal with an inflation of course not why did you ever think it answer because that's what you were fed all the time in all the media the last time the United States had an inflation as bad as the one a couple years ago right was back in the late' 70s and 80s we had funded the war in Vietnam by printing a lot of money because otherwise the people would have revolted against it if you'd said to everybody we're having a war in Vietnam is going to cost every family a couple th a year with end of War so we borrowed we printed money and we borrowed and then we had the terrible inflation and then a Conservative Republican president Richard Nixon went on the television August 15th 1971 and said I'm going to do something about this terrible inflation oh good there was tremendous suffering in the country and a lot of pressure and put that together with the problems with the war mhm he had to do something so he declared a wage price freeze that day 15th of August as of tomorrow morning he said this Conservative Republican president who became president by becoming the champion of anti-communism as of tomorrow morning he said any business that raises its prices we will come for you we will arrest you and you go to jail guess what the next morning inflation vanished amazing are you surprised shouldn't be is this a story about how you controlling inflation yeah did it work yeah did it happen in United States yeah do you know about it no and the people at the Federal Reserve who decide interest rates they made sure not to ask about it not to talk about it not to debate it let me give you another example CU I think that perked some of your interest in the early 1940s the United States decided to enter and fight World War II and the economists who by the way included a significant number of marxists and socialists cuz in the 1940s they would be hired by President Roosevelt at the time because they were considered the most reliable anti-nazis anti-fascists so people like Dal braith whose name you may know Paul Sweezy Harry magdorf people very important people on the left of American economics were working in Washington and they went to Roosevelt and they said okay you got a problem you're about to fight a war you're going to move all these resources factories railroads to work on a war Supply the army supply the Navy and fight a war and those resources are therefore not going to be a available to produce food clothing shelter consumer goods so we're going to have a shortage of consumer goods since we're using these resources a large number of them to fight a war and here's the problem with that president if there's a shortage of goods for the mass of people who presumably will still want to buy Underpants and shoes and coasters and all the other things of life with a shortage we got a problem and then the president said well what's our problem said the market system the president was confused I said I thought we were supposed to be for that yeah but we can't afford it in a war why not they had to explain to him just like I'm doing now with you if there's a sudden shortage then there won't be enough toasters or ice cream cones or fill in the blank and you know what happens in a market economy when there's scarcity of goods the people with the money offer more you'll come with your dollar to the ice cream vendor in the park and you got your two little kids with you and you want to buy them on ice cream cone and you hand him two bucks for the two cones and he looks at you and says I only got four cones left and before you can respond the person next to you who you can tell by his outfit is much better healed than you says I offer you $5 for each cone guess who gets the cones if you have a shortage a market system is a system that allocates whatever is scarce to the people with the most money those of you who think of yourself as moral or ethical ought to think about why you support a market system that does what I just said really that's what you want you want to live in an economy that distributes whatever is scarce to people with the most money you know what that means it means that the little bit of milk will be purchased at a high price by the nice rich couple who gives it to their cat but it will not be affordable to the poor couple who needs it for their children it's how the market Works Jack you're supposed to love the market you're supposed to believe it's efficient it never was that is that kind of argument is what we in Academia call  but it works Mr Trump has become president because he knew knew that the mass of the American people were being squeezed and that the conventional Republicans and Democrats weren't doing squat about it and he said I'm Different watch me I'm going to be outrageous I'm going to say the things that were quoted earlier not quietly and under the table where is usually done but big and loud and open all about it watch me and when you got two parties that aren't doing anything for you and you're feeling feeling very squeezed you give your vote to somebody different after all why not the Democrats had the equivalent you all know his name Bernie he was the different on the other end the politician who for the first time in half of century didn't run away from the name socialist had he Wun he would have picked up that same different maybe let's go with him but the Democrats shut down their only chance and look at them they suffered the results Mr Trump there's no reason for any of us to imagine he's going to change he's going to be Mr different that's what he does and you can already see it the Israelis made a decision to Hitch their wagon with the United States they made that decision many years ago faithful decision good in the short run a disaster in the long run and that disaster has now come full circle they're identified in the whole world as a complicit partner in what was done in Gaza the Israelis went into Gaza to defeat and Destroy Hamas didn't work to defeat or eject the Palestinian people didn't work and all that happened two days ago was a decision by the United States upon which it depends to cut its relationship with a losing proposition it's ugly all around it will not save the United States from being identified as complicit with all that happened there and the books and articles and documentaries about it will be with us for the next generation and Hamas it will inherit the rage and the fury of 2 and 1 half million residents of Gaza who have watched their mother their father their children the young people that are coming are going to be a much greater danger to Israel than the old Hamas ever was this is a disaster and most of the world sees it that's why the votes in the US a lopsided 150 countries on the side of the Palestinians 25 extensions of the United States Israel and the Canary Islands I mean is silly it's a silly spectacle but that's another sign of a country going down last example Ukraine the problems in Ukraine begin with the dissolution of the Soviet Union back in 1989 1990 Ukraine a major part of what used to be the Soviet Union particularly important in Grain growing very very rich soil so forth lot of finagling of the countries of the West NATO moving Eastward threatening Russia and all that I won't P you with the rehis and then to stop what was happening after NATO took over in Poland in Czechoslovakia and all the rest Mr Putin and the Russians said no not Ukraine not the eastern part of Ukraine which is majority Russian and Russian speaking Russian language Russian culture and so on and the United States says oh oh good you invaded that's a bad thing we can mobilize the whole world around the bad thing of a big country invading a little country that sounds good that was already a mistake because what was Afghanistan a big country invading a little poor country what was Vietnam a big country invading a the position of the United States as going to war around the principle of a big country shouldn't invade a little country sounds a little Hollow coming from the United States except of course here where the denial is the governing Spirit of the country and the United States decides to go in for and round up the usual Europeans to go with you okay how do you fight the war and this goes to something said before and I want to conclude with the United States is caught in the decline discovering that the decline trumps everything else and don't mean to be clever by using the word trumps the nuclear weapons of the United States are useless the enormity of them useless why because if you dared use them in new CR the other side has them too and will use them and that made that quite clear so you can't because it's self-destructive that's out but what do you have conventional Warfare but then you got another problem the Russians are better equipped for that than you are the Russians also have a history in case you're not familiar with it Napoleon thought he could defeat Russia he couldn't Hitler thought he could defeat Russia he couldn't invading Russia has turned out to be or fighting Russia a really bad idea but the United States used to fighting such powerhouses as the poorest countries on Earth Vietnam Afghanistan didn't make the adjustment so it can't fight it realized that within months so it came up with the great plan the genius of Mr blinkin or Jake Sullivan or other people who I hope whose names mean nothing to you cuz he sure mean nothing historically here's what their great strategy was a war of sanctions oh we will get the Russians we will I'm now quoting President Biden reduce the ruble to Rubble somebody with poetic genius gave him that one the rubble will become rubble and Russia will fall to its knees what wonderful images right up there with Mickey and other mouses in the American Consciousness and they did they stopped the Europeans if you know the story stopped buying oil and gas from Russia which is a major export of the Russian economy that would Russia was the idea problem Russia is part of the [Music] bricks and the Russians went to the Chinese and the Indians and said they won't buy our oil and gas we need to sell the oil and gas how about you buy our oil and gas done said Mr Modi done s xiin ping and thereby the American strategy went along with everything else into the toilet didn't work total fa Russian rubles fine Russian economy in case you don't know has grown faster over the last two years than the American economy has which should surprise no one cuz remember how we as a nation got out of difficult Economic Times known as the Great Depression we went to war in World War II we took half our unemployed people and put them in uniform and we took the other half of the unemployed and gave them jobs making a uniform and that's how we solv with that's how we did it turns out War amans help solve economic problems we should have known cuz that's what we did but we couldn't imagine it these failures of imagination these are the signs of economic powerful decline so if you really want to understand where we are it doesn't depend on anything Mr Trump does that's the important thing to understand don't get caught up in that Mr Biden's influence on the economic conditions of our society are marginal Mr Trump's at his first presidency were marginal most of the things he boasted about he couldn't do he built a wall you know along the Mexican border more Mexicans came not fewer that was 100% bust now he's proposing as you probably know and as I heard as I was coming over here today that ice is going to be raiding cities Across America and throwing people into Mexico yeah he may do some of that maybe he'll do a lot of it who knows if he actually does it if he actually takes the 10 to 15 undocumented immigrants in the United States and puts them in Mexico we're going to have meetings like this only it's going to be about Mexico Mexico lives off the remittances the money earned by Mexican people here that they're sending back to their mother their father their children back home and that flow of money is an absolute blessing to Mexico it doesn't have to sell anything it doesn't have to export anything it just gets the money shipped by its exp Patriots here imagine that suddenly gets stopped because they're not here anymore they lost their job and they were deported back to Mexico but it gets worse they're arriving in Mexico at a time when Mr Trump is threatening them or hitting them with tariffs which is killing the market Mexico had in the United States its biggest buyer of its output including many automobiles made by Ford and General Motors in Mex meico for export here those goods are not going to be able to come in here without a tariff which means we're not going to be buying them which means the Mexicans are going to be laying people off when when the money from remittances isn't coming and the millions are coming looking for the work that will not be there you know what that's going to make out of Mexico a disaster that's going to remind everyone else of the sad country of Haiti a disaster of gangs and po American tourism there bye-bye that's the kind of chaos that's coming out of the denial the war in Ukraine is lost because the Russians can fight forever and for those of you who pay attention you may have noticed you should have that the Russian army is many many miles into Ukraine it's very clear who's winning and very clear who's losing except here so my parting final words most of what's about to happen is not about Mr Trump or what he does or doesn't do his capacity for saying one thing and doing another is already legendary you don't need me to remind you of it but whatever he in fact does is marginal most of what is going to happen to you and me is going to depend on two things one what the rest of the world does as it watches and navigates the decline of the American Empire so actually more important what ji jingping and Mr Modi and Lula in Brazil and so forth and so on and that remarkable woman who's now the head of Mexico who has her her work cut out for her she has a very famous Hispanic name shine bound is her name but she's the one to watch cuz what she does faced with what I've just described to you that's going to be powerful whatever it is so it's the outside that's going to affect us more than our own political leaders because we don't have the power and they don't anymore plus we are so lost in denial that we don't know what we're doing that's why we miscalculated in Ukraine they're out of touch not just with the American people but with the world reality watch them this morning I read a story in a major American financial newspaper about the international monetary fund saying that the United States would grow 2.7% in the year 2024 and thereby lead the world economy I couldn't believe it it's so gross by the way the number is correct 2.7% is what the IMF has now said but that's not leading the world economy that's lousy Chinese growth this year will be 5% and the Indian growth will be seven United States isn't leading anything except here in its own weird mentality and what's the other thing the second thing beside the outside dominating the inside it's you we are the unknown will the American people allow themselves to be the ones who get screwed as this Empire passes it's the same question that the British working class had to face when the British Empire collapsed over the last century we whether women building up or formally incarcerated people will they get together will they make movements will they make demands with they make coalitions with one another to realize those demands that's the Wild Card Everywhere by the way there are think tanks All Over America that are asking the same question they're worried is the labor movement waking up in a way that could change all of this people were being worked at unbelievable stress in Amazon warehouse for years or in Starbucks coffee shops for years but in the last 2 or 3 years enough is enough no more we're going to we're going to that remarkable group there Smalls and folks out there in Staten Island that that's a remarkable and has had effects everywhere else the Boeing workers on the west coast rejected three contracts before they accepted the one that they F which was better than the ones that they had rejected the labor movement that's the question if this gives you a swell head that's my point it is more in your hands than you think of because in addition to saving yourselves if it's a time of decline if the people who run this Society are so busy denying it refusing to face it as I've tried to show you then we are stronger than we might suspect and they are weaker than they might feel confident about and that's a good time for us to act the conditions are pretty good not terrible as some of my fellow leftists are worrying about of course we have problems and difficulty I'm not pretending otherwise but we all o have an historical moment that the old Cold War mentality that everything to the left is evil Bad won't work is dead that generation died and took it with him young people today don't have that mentality they're much more open to what it is

Transcript for:Analysis of Empire Decline and Economics

Transcript for:
Analysis of Empire Decline and Economics