Lecture on Fifth-Generation Computers and Expert Systems

Overview

• Presenter: Stuart Shafie
• Guest Expert: Edward Feigenbaum
• Topic: Fifth-generation computers, AI, expert systems
• Alternate Names: Knowledge Information Processing Systems (KIPS), Knowledge-based systems

Key Concepts

Fifth-Generation Computing

• Represents a quantum leap in computing technology
• Japanese Initiative: Ten-year national program focusing on KIPS
• Central to the fifth generation: Knowledge-based systems (Expert Systems)

Expert Systems

• Definition: Systems infused with knowledge to provide intelligent solutions
• Components:
  • Documented facts
  • Heuristic or experiential knowledge
• Method: Knowledge engineering

Knowledge Engineering

• Process of embedding human-like experiential knowledge into systems
• Systems can manipulate facts and make decisions
• Goal-directed backward chaining used for inference

Historical Context

Evolution of Computing

• Evolution marked by different generations, with the fifth generation focusing on AI and knowledge processing
• Influences: Alan Turing, Charles Babbage, Ada Lovelace
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): Focused on processing symbolic knowledge using logical inference

Milestones in AI

• Early AI research focused on generality and symbolic manipulation
• Shift to Knowledge-Based AI: Emphasis on embedding substantial domain-specific knowledge
• George Polya (Stanford Mathematician): Popularized heuristic reasoning

Practical Applications

Examples of Expert Systems

1. Chemical Analysis: DENDRAL program at Stanford (1965)
2. Medical Diagnosis: MYCIN program for infectious disease diagnosis & therapy
3. Industrial Applications:

• Configuring customer orders
• Designing integrated circuits
• Diagnosing computer equipment failures

Industry Transition

• Transition from universities to industry (similar to late 1940s and early 1950s computing revolution)
• Applications across various sectors, especially engineering and healthcare

Specific Case Study: Drilling Advisor

• Problem: Addressing drilling issues in oil wells remotely
• Developer: ELF Aquitaine (French National Oil Company)
• Prototype Demo:
  • System asks for specific data inputs and advises on drilling issues
  • Rule-based system: Uses rules with if-then logic
• Explanation system allows transparency and understanding of the reasoning process

International Competition: Japan's Fifth-Generation Project

• Goal: Establish industry leadership in AI and knowledge systems
• Funding: $450 million government funding plus matching industry funding
• Strategy: Capture market share in AI where leading companies like IBM are less active
• Call to Action: US needs to accelerate efforts to maintain leadership

Industry News and Developments

• Semiconductor Industry: Effort to regain dominance, development of 4-megabyte chip by 1988
• Fortune Computers: Issues leading to resignation of CEO Gary Friedman
• MCI Mail: New electronic mail service by MCI
• Portable Computers on Airlines: Restrictions on use due to potential radio interference
• Nolan Bushnell (Founder of Atari): New ventures in video games and robotics
• Legal Rulings: Apple vs. Franklin Computers – software on silicon chips deemed copyrightable
• Best-Selling Business Software: Lotus 1-2-3
• Advertising in Software: Companies planning to place ads on software discs and computer networks

Conclusion

The lecture provides a comprehensive overview of the advancements and implications of fifth-generation computing, focusing on the development and application of expert systems, and highlighting the need for strategic advancement to stay competitive globally.