✈️

The Global Race for Next-Generation Bombers

Jun 3, 2024

The Global Race for Next-Generation Bombers

Introduction

  • Discussion on the global race to develop Next-Generation fighter jets and now, strategic bombers.
  • The strategic bomber development race is restricted to a very small number of countries due to its complexity and cost.
  • The US, having developed the first operational stealth bomber (B2 Spirit), has released images of its successor, the B21 Raider.
  • Russia and China are also pushing their next-generation bomber programs.
  • Focus on the aircraft making up future bomber fleets from advanced new platforms to older designs.

History of Strategic Bombers

  • Evolution of strategic bombers from World War I Zeppelin airships to World War II heavy bombers.
  • Post-WWII to Cold War: Bomber capacity and range increased significantly, culminating in aircraft like the B52 and the B36 Peacemaker.
  • Developments during the Cold War focused on range, payload, and the transition to jet propulsion.
  • Emergence of missile technology and sophisticated air defenses reduced the strategic edge of bombers.
  • Some nations (e.g., the UK) phased out bombers, while others (US, USSR) developed new capabilities (e.g., supersonic bombers, stealth technology).

The Role and Decision to Invest in Strategic Bombers

  • Only three countries (currently) maintain strategic bombers due to the cost, complexity, and necessity of such a capability.
  • Heavy bombers offer unique attributes like range, payload capacity, flexibility, and special survivability features.
  • Investment decisions are influenced by factors like cost, alternative systems, multi-role performance, production scale, and specific national defense needs.

Current Strategic Bomber Fleets

  • The US, Russia, and China are the primary operators of strategic bombers.
  • Types of current bombers:
    • Subsonic bomb trucks and missile carriers: B52, Tu-95, H-6.
    • Supersonic bombers: B1, Tu-22M, Tu-160.
    • Stealth bombers: Currently, only the B2 Spirit in service.
  • Trends indicate a mix of old and new aircraft to balance cost and capability.

Next-Generation Strategic Bombers

Common Features and Technologies

  • Emphasis on stealth technology with subsonic flying wing designs.
  • Integration of unmanned systems (drones) for enhanced capability.
  • Advanced sensors and electronic systems improvement.
  • Optionally manned configurations for varying mission risk.
  • Long-term platform thinking with potential multi-role capabilities.

US: The B21 Raider

  • Evolutionary development from the B2 but designed for easier upgrades and lower costs.
  • Managed and built with efficiency: on budget, on time, and with a focus on lifecycle sustainment.
  • First images and flight tests released, indicating progress towards production and service.

China: The H-20

  • Aimed to be a revolutionary step with stealth and long-range capabilities.
  • Likely to significantly enhance China's strategic reach and survivability.
  • Development information sparse but critical to observe given the PLA's strategic needs.

Russia: The Prospective Aviation Complex for Long-Range Aviation (PAK DA)

  • Designed to be a subsonic stealthy bomber with significant technological advancement for Russian industry.
  • Multiple delays and uncertainties make the program’s realization and effectiveness questionable.

Mixed Fleets and Classic Designs

US Future Bomber Force

  • Future force structure to include the B21 and upgraded B52 bombers.
  • B1 and B2 eventually phased out.
  • Focused on a mix of stealth and high payload capacity for global power projection.

China's Plan

  • Continues to utilize the H6 for missile carriage and introduces the H20 for long-range, high-survivability missions.
  • Emphasis on a two-type force for operational flexibility.

Russia's Mixed Fleet

  • Retains various designs: Tu95, Tu22M, Tu160 in addition to developing the PAK DA.
  • Complex mix raises questions on feasibility and cost-effectiveness.

Conclusion

  • The next-generation bomber race involves advanced technology and complex strategic decisions.
  • Future bomber fleets are likely to be a blend of advanced stealth platforms and upgraded older designs.
  • Success depends on balancing innovation, cost, and operational needs.

Additional Notes

  • The US Air Force's innovative palletized missile deployment system called Rapid Dragon.
  • Strategic bombers play diverse roles in defense ecosystems, being versatile tools for national strategy.