Bitcoin Bull Market 2025 Lecture Notes

Introduction

Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, initiating the 2025 mega bull market.
Gary Gensler is fired, retail investors return.
Key topics: Price action, four-year cycle, potential corrections, global developments.

Current Status: Bitcoin surpassed $100,000, briefly dipped to $92,000, rebounded to around $98,000.
Leverage Effect: Over-leveraged positions led to a rapid dip; market correction rebalanced prices.
Key Price Levels:
- Resistance at $90,000.
- Potential for steep falls if it breaks below $90,000.
- Hovering around $98,000 at this recording time.
Influencing Factors: Upcoming jobs report may affect short-term trends.

Comparison with 2020 halving year shows similar trends.
Early December historically shows downward trend before significant growth.
Historical Patterns:
- December 2020: Initial 10% drop followed by a 70% increase.
- Potential for December 2025 to follow a similar pattern.

Ethereum:
- Strong performance expected, slightly outpacing Bitcoin in recent months.
- Recent trends indicate a rotation into Ethereum.
Altcoins:
- January predicted to be a significant month for altcoins.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are on track with previous four-year cycles.
Historical precedence for a 30% correction in Bitcoin prices around this time.
- Such corrections can lead to more significant drops in altcoin prices.

Bitcoin's Milestone: Reaching $100,000 attracts major media attention.
Companies adopting Bitcoin in treasury reserves.
Regulatory Changes:
- Gary Gensler replaced by Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly leader.
- UK planning crypto regulations by 2020.
- Russia classifies digital currencies as property, exempting VAT.
Market Adoption:
- Virgin Voyages accepting Bitcoin for payments.
- Comparison: Bitcoin acts more as a digital gold than a currency.
ETF Filings:
- Numerous Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP ETF proposals.
- Timelines align with new SEC chairman's appointment.