Final Hour Finesse

Introduction

• Presenter: John Fibonacci
• Topic: Scouting indices on an intraday basis
• Objective: Learn how to get optimal entry points near highs
• Key Concept: Time, Price, and Context (often emphasized in videos)

Time: The Crucial Component

• Focus: Final hour of the New York Stock Exchange (3:00 to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, 2:00 to 3:00 PM Central Time)
• Setup: Draw vertical lines on the chart to delineate this final hour
• Relevance: Look for reversal patterns that often occur during this period

Example Trade: Friday, November 3, 2023

Contextual Analysis

• General Market Trend: Bullish (higher highs and higher lows)
• Reversal Considerations: Anticipate stops being placed at new lows as market makes new highs

Market Behavior

• Observation: Market tends to drag and cluster liquidity just below new highs
• Expectation: Potential for a reversal during the final hour

Detailed Breakdown

Transition to Lower Time Frames

• Drop down to 1-minute timeframe for granular details
• Key Shift: Market shifts from bullish to bearish price delivery at 2:12 PM

Mitigation Setup

• Mitigation Definition: Opportunity for long holders to exit before market turns bearish
• Observation: Market shows high, low, higher high, and lower low, indicating shift
• Entry Point: At 2:14 PM, high probability setup for entering shorts

Relative Strength Analysis

• Indices Comparison: Overlay ES chart with Dow Jones (YM) to identify divergences
• Example: Higher high in S&P but lower high in Dow signals distribution and potential reversal
• Conclusion: Divergence between indices helps confirm market trends and high/low points

Concluding Points

• Market Dynamics: Moves from liquidity to liquidity
• Key Takeaway: Watch for signatures in price and time (such as final hour) for optimal setups
• Final Note: Importance of understanding time, price, and context for successful trading

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