Lecture Notes: Gold Market and Mining Updates

Overview

• Discussion on McFillammy study released 9 months ago.
• Initial underwhelming NPV of $451 million at $3000/oz gold price.
• Current spot gold price increase has raised NPV to $2.3 billion.
• Rising gold market impacts development projects significantly.

Market Observations

• Streets quieter without popular lunch spot open.
• Black Diamond Drilling Factory operates 24/7, providing drill consumables for open pit and underground operations.
• Gold price increase by 5% in a single day; impact on gold stocks.

Gold Market Dynamics

• Discussion on option-like dynamics in the gold market.
• Focus on advanced gold development projects in Australia.
• Interest in projects not held by major producers.

Specific Gold Projects

McFillamies

• Initially underwhelming but now attractive due to gold price rise.
• NPV increase from $451 million to $2.3 billion.

Other Notable Projects

• Rocks Resources: $235 million market cap, targeting FID by year-end.
• Katanning (OSGold): $200 million market cap, facing approval challenges.
• Apollo Hill (Saturn): $130 million market cap, PFS due December.
• Tunkilla (Barton Gold): $100 million market cap, early stage.
• Mandilla (Astral): $240 million market cap, PFS due by June.
• Minyari Dome (Antipa): $326 million market cap, potential acquisition target.
• Yandal (Medallion Metals): Advanced player with low capex pathway.

Rare Earths and Trade Dynamics

• Impact of trade tariffs on rare earth supply and MP Materials.
• MP Materials facing challenges due to new tariffs; profitability impacted.
• Discussion of national interest and self-interest in rare earth production.

Company Specific Updates

• MP Materials: Halted exports to China, focusing on processing in California.
• Deep Yellow: Deferred FID for TUMAS project due to uranium price.
• Bellevue and Parenti: Significant updates on their operations and contracts.

New Zealand Mining Developments

• Santana's Ras Project: New open pit stages, reduced waste pre-strip.

Miscellaneous

• AGC diversifies into lithium.
• Pilbara Minerals: Operational updates, impacts of cyclone and expansion.
• Black Cat: First gold poured.
• Gorilla Gold: New resource discovery.

Final Notes

• The importance of monitoring commodity prices and project developments.
• Potential impacts and opportunities arising from shifts in the gold and rare earth markets.