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Internationalization of India's UPI and Rupee
Jul 22, 2024
Internationalization of India's UPI and Rupee
Introduction
India's UPI to become international;
Non-resident Indians will be able to transfer money using UPI.
Action plan for making Indian Rupee an international currency.
Chapter 1: What is an International Currency?
Example: US dollar used in Egypt for trade, even preferred over local currency.
International currency: used for trade in multiple countries, also known as Actively Traded Currency.
Historical context:
Before currency: Barter system.
Currency evolves for convenience and trust.
Trust is vital for currency value.
Real-world application:
Trade requires a currency accepted internationally.
British Pound was an international currency due to colonization.
Bretton Woods agreement (1944): US dollar becomes standard.
OPEC accepts dollar in 1973, reinforcing its status.
Current international currencies: US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Chinese Yuan.
Chapter 2: Why Rupee Needs to Go International
India's falling forex reserves and rising dollar rates.
RBI uses reserves to stabilize rupee.
India as a net importer:
Higher imports than exports.
Significant trade deficit (e.g., October trade deficit: $26.91 billion).
The need for international rupee to mitigate rising dollar value.
Chapter 3: Hope for Indian Rupee
Positive trade data: India exports more than it imports with 154 countries.
Cooperation with countries:-
Sri Lanka has agreed to trade in rupees.
Russia could trade with India in rupees due to sanctions.
Benefits for countries lacking dollars or unable to trade in dollars.
Vostro account system explained:
Allows foreign banks to hold rupee accounts for trade.
Simplifies process: Indian exporter gets payment in rupees.
35 countries ready to trade in rupees.
Potential significant win for India.
Chapter 4: The Real Challenge
Convincing countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE:
Major trade surpluses with India ($12 billion with UAE, $20 billion with Saudi Arabia).
Surplus in rupees is less useful compared to dollars.
Need for major policy changes by RBI and government:
Reduce trade deficit by increasing exports.
Encourage foreign investments in rupees.
Complex topic to be covered in another video.
Chapter 5: Is it so simple?
Real-world difficulties in executing internationalization:
Example: China’s limited success in reducing US dollar dependence since 2009.
US dollar's dominance as a weapon:
Controlled by US FED.
Potential sanctions could severely impact oil trade and raise dollar demand.
Importance of timely action by India.
Conclusion
Economic pressure on India’s economy like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Importance of strategic steps to strengthen India’s economy.
Sharing knowledge on economic matters.
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Full transcript