Internationalization of India's UPI and Rupee

Jul 22, 2024

Internationalization of India's UPI and Rupee

Introduction

  • India's UPI to become international;
    • Non-resident Indians will be able to transfer money using UPI.
  • Action plan for making Indian Rupee an international currency.

Chapter 1: What is an International Currency?

  • Example: US dollar used in Egypt for trade, even preferred over local currency.
  • International currency: used for trade in multiple countries, also known as Actively Traded Currency.
  • Historical context:
    • Before currency: Barter system.
    • Currency evolves for convenience and trust.
  • Trust is vital for currency value.
  • Real-world application:
    • Trade requires a currency accepted internationally.
    • British Pound was an international currency due to colonization.
    • Bretton Woods agreement (1944): US dollar becomes standard.
    • OPEC accepts dollar in 1973, reinforcing its status.
    • Current international currencies: US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Chinese Yuan.

Chapter 2: Why Rupee Needs to Go International

  • India's falling forex reserves and rising dollar rates.
    • RBI uses reserves to stabilize rupee.
  • India as a net importer:
    • Higher imports than exports.
    • Significant trade deficit (e.g., October trade deficit: $26.91 billion).
  • The need for international rupee to mitigate rising dollar value.

Chapter 3: Hope for Indian Rupee

  • Positive trade data: India exports more than it imports with 154 countries.
  • Cooperation with countries:-
    • Sri Lanka has agreed to trade in rupees.
    • Russia could trade with India in rupees due to sanctions.
  • Benefits for countries lacking dollars or unable to trade in dollars.
  • Vostro account system explained:
    • Allows foreign banks to hold rupee accounts for trade.
    • Simplifies process: Indian exporter gets payment in rupees.
  • 35 countries ready to trade in rupees.
  • Potential significant win for India.

Chapter 4: The Real Challenge

  • Convincing countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE:
    • Major trade surpluses with India ($12 billion with UAE, $20 billion with Saudi Arabia).
    • Surplus in rupees is less useful compared to dollars.
  • Need for major policy changes by RBI and government:
    • Reduce trade deficit by increasing exports.
    • Encourage foreign investments in rupees.
  • Complex topic to be covered in another video.

Chapter 5: Is it so simple?

  • Real-world difficulties in executing internationalization:
    • Example: China’s limited success in reducing US dollar dependence since 2009.
  • US dollar's dominance as a weapon:
    • Controlled by US FED.
    • Potential sanctions could severely impact oil trade and raise dollar demand.
  • Importance of timely action by India.

Conclusion

  • Economic pressure on India’s economy like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
  • Importance of strategic steps to strengthen India’s economy.
  • Sharing knowledge on economic matters.