Sudan's Political Crisis: From Revolution to Civil War

Background

• December 19, 2018: The revolution begins against President Omar Bashir's regime.
• Civilians demand democracy after decades under Bashir's military rule.
• Bashir is ousted in a coup led by two key figures.

Historical Context

• Sudan's Coup History: Long history of coups; SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces) holds significant power.
  • 1958: First successful military coup by Abdullah Khalil.
  • 1969: Colonel Jafar Namairi's coup; democratic government ends.
  • 1985: Military officer ousts Namairi, installs new democratic government.
  • 1989: Omar Bashir's coup, becomes head of state.

Omar Bashir's Regime

• Coup-proofing Strategy: Keeps power by surrounding himself with divided protectors.
• SAF and Janjaweed: Utilizes SAF and local militias (Janjaweed) for control and protection.
  • Darfur Crisis (2003): Bashir employs Janjaweed against Darfuri rebels.
  • Mass atrocities committed by SAF and Janjaweed.

Rise of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti)

• Bashir's Trust: Trusted leader within Janjaweed, called "My Protection."
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): Established by Bashir as a paramilitary force in 2013.
• Hemeti gains financial autonomy and control over gold mines.

Economic Crisis and Revolution

• 2018 Economic Crisis: Budget heavily favors security sector; economic hardships fuel protests.
• April 11, 2019: SAF and RSF remove Bashir, surprising civilians.

Post-Coup Challenges

• Leadership: Abdel Fattah Burhan (SAF) and Hemeti (RSF) control Sudan.
• June 3, 2019: RSF massacre at sit-in protests; international intervention follows.
• Power-sharing Agreement: Military and protesters to share power; transitional council formed.
  • Abdullah Hamdok: Installed as prime minister, later resigns after military interventions.

Conflict Between Burhan and Hemeti

• Disagreements: Over integration of RSF into the SAF.
• April 2023: Planned transition to civilian-led government disrupted by disagreements.
• Current Conflict: War between Burhan and Hemeti, resulting in civilian casualties and displacement.

International Involvement

• International Pressure: US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, UK push for agreements.
• Failed Agreements: Ceasefires broken, talks unproductive.

Consequences

• Betrayal Felt by Civilians: Democratic hopes dashed by Sudanese leaders and international community.
• Ongoing Crisis: Continued violence and instability in Sudan.