Lecture Notes: Population Growth and Demographic Transition Models

Introduction

• Traditional belief: Global overpopulation concerns
• Current trend: Declining fertility rates in countries like the U.S.
• Concerns over population bust and potential civilization decline without more children.

Population Growth Trends

• Varying regional growth:
  • Nigeria's population is expected to reach 400 million by 2050.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa's population grows at 2.7% annually.
  • Comparison: South Asia at 1.2%, Latin America at 0.9%.
• Key Question: Is the global population crashing or exploding?

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

• Purpose: Understand population changes through economic and social development.
• Stages of DTM:

Stage 1: High Birth and Death Rates

• Low natural increase rate (NIR)
• Lack of sanitation, medicine, and contraceptives
• Subsistence agriculture dominant
• Current Status: No countries in this stage today.

Stage 2: High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate

• Result of the Industrial and Medical Revolutions.
• Increased urbanization and specialization.
• Population boom due to a decrease in death rates (CDR).
• Example: Afghanistan

Stage 3: Declining Birth and Death Rates

• Birth rate (CBR) decreases as societies urbanize.
• Medical advancements increase life expectancy.
• Cultural shifts, more job opportunities in manufacturing and services.
• Migration patterns change with economic development.
• Example: Mexico

Stage 4: Low Birth and Death Rates

• Low or flat NIR.
• Economic opportunities increase, higher education rates for women.
• Smaller family sizes due to higher living costs.
• Examples: United States, China

Stage 5: Speculative Stage - Declining Population

• Negative NIR as birth rates fall below death rates.
• Aging population with more individuals in post-reproductive years.
• Examples: Japan, Germany

Epidemiologic Transition Model

• Purpose: Understand causes of death linked to demographic stages.

Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine

• Deaths from infectious diseases, pandemics, animal attacks.

Stage 2: Receding Pandemics

• Advances in medicine and living standards reduce death rates.

Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases

• Longer life expectancy with deaths from lifestyle diseases.

Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases

• Further medical advancements extend life and fight diseases.

Stage 5: Re-emergence of Infectious Diseases

• Disease evolution, urbanization, and globalization increase disease spread.

Conclusion

• Important to understand both demographic and epidemiologic transition models.
• Practice: Review questions available for further study.
• Resources: Ultimate review packet and Discord server for AP Human Geography support.

• Lecture by Mr. Sin
• Encouragement to subscribe and engage with additional resources.