Transcript for:
Greenland's Geopolitical Significance and Future

The shores of Greenland. This remote island in the Arctic has a problem now. We need Greenland for national security. ... One way or the other, we’re gonna get it. Geographically part of North America, Greenland has close ties to the United States. But politically it’s part of Europe -- as a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. This wasn’t an issue before. The U.S. and Denmark are NATO allies and have long cooperated on the island. Until now. Donald Trump refused to rule out military force to take control of the island. Denmark’s prime minister has been racing across the continent trying to shore up support from allies. What does Trump’s longing for Greenland mean for its people? Do you want Greenland to be bought? No, not at all. Why is this island in the far north suddenly so important? You can think of Greenland as a giant aircraft carrier sitting in an amazing position. Only fifty-seven thousand people live in Greenland which is the world's biggest island. Greenland’s towns and settlements are scattered along the coast, including the capital Nuuk. The island is right between the US, Canada, the European Union and Russia. And on the shortest route between the European part of Russia and the US. That’s why, here... ...the US built one of its most important radar stations – at Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base. The US facility was set up during the Cold War to detect missile launches from the Soviet Union – and prepare to strike back. The job was to build a giant airbase for our largest long-range bombers high on the north-west coast of Greenland at a tiny settlement called Thule. Built with the permission of the Danish government, the base would push our defense line two thousand miles to the North. Today it remains the northernmost US military base in the world. And don’t get fooled by this footage. Winters there are brutal. Despite this significant US base... ...Greenland is actually a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. How did this happen? We will get to that. Denmark is a small European country of 6 million people. And its capital, Copenhagen, is further away from Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, than Washington DC. Denmark only has a light military footprint in Greenland. Danish troops patrol on dog sleds across the inland... ...and a few navy vessels monitor the shores. It’s American power and not Danish power that provides security. Because the Greenlanders know that our base there is ultimately what's going to guarantee their security, and the Danes know that, as well. This is Scott Barry Zellen, an American researcher at the University of Connecticut, specializing in Arctic geopolitics. And so, the fact that Greenland has a strategic role to play and a forward military presence for the US military already means that they are part of our security system. But Donald Trump is taking it to the next level. He says the US must have control of Greenland because of Russian and Chinese cooperation in the Arctic. You look outside, you have China ships all over the place. You have Russian ships all over the place. We're not letting that happen. That has stunned Europeans. In Denmark, we're also requesting, well, what is it actually the US want us to do? Marc Jacobsen is researching Arctic security and diplomacy at the Royal Danish Defense College, which is under the oversight of the Danish armed forces. What we know is that they want Denmark to increase surveillance of Greenland. It’s important to remember that Greenland is half the size of Europe. So even if Denmark used all its military budget on increasing surveillance of Greenland, we would never know everything what's going on there. Surveillance is especially important between Greenland, Iceland and the UK in this area called the GIUK Gap. This naval chokepoint is a crucial part of NATO strategy to detect and contain Russian ships, especially submarines moving between the Arctic and the Atlantic. Denmark is now investing in new ships and drones to deploy in the far north. It wants to keep sharing defense responsibility for Greenland with the US. That cooperation started after Nazi Germany occupied Denmark in World War 2. The Danish ambassador in Washington agreed that the US should occupy Greenland... ...and construct military bases on the island to prevent a German invasion. More than ten thousand US fighters and bombers landed in Greenland on their way to the war in Europe. Greenland proved such a strategic asset, that in 1946 the US wanted to buy it from Denmark for a hundred million dollars in gold. The offer was rejected but both countries kept it secret at the time. Not long after both countries became founding members of NATO. Denmark agreed US troops should stay. And in 1951, the two countries signed a treaty on common defense of Greenland. It is still in effect today. That’s why Trump’s threat to take Greenland is such a big deal. We're now the greatest threat to Danish unity. Not the Russians, not the Chinese, but America, their NATO partner. And this tension is not only about security. In February 2025, a US-Senate committee held a hearing revealing much broader interest in the island, for example from the US mining industry. Greenland's entire coastline holds what is indisputably one of the world's greatest collection of minerals in one jurisdiction. Throw a dart at any portion of the coastline and you will undoubtedly hit a potential world class target. Just look at this map of mineral resources, provided by Greenland’s government. Precious metals, base metals, industrial rocks, and rare metals – including rare earths. This is just a hint of the resources in Greenland. But most of it remains largely untapped. It's important to remember that there's very little mining activity in Greenland. All these stories about Greenland's riches in terms of mineral resources, it's still far on the horizon. There are just two active mines in Greenland. And only about a hundred people currently work in Greenland’s mining sector. Exploration is very challenging. Take this mineral deposit site in the south of Greenland, for example. It is said to be among the world's top rare earth deposits outside China. But in 2021 the Greenland government stopped exploration here. Because the site also contains radioactive uranium and is close to populated areas. But it’s not just environmental concerns. Extracting resources is a lot costlier here than in most other places. There are no roads linking Greenland’s settlements. And the terrain is rough, with deep fjords, glaciers and icy mountain ranges. The climate is harsh. But it is changing due to the climate crisis. Whether you're for or against it, ice just melts. It's melting faster, it's melting more rapidly, and it's creating opportunity as ice retreats in time to have greater accessibility to interior natural resources. And it’s also affecting the ocean around Greenland. This visualization from NASA shows the reduction of ice pack in the Arctic between the nineteen-eighties and twenty-nineteen. But instead of a wake-up call, many companies and countries see it as an economic opportunity. They are waiting for new shipping routes to open in the Arctic. Three of them in particular: The Northwest Passage through the top of the Canadian archipelago. The Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast. And the Transpolar Sea Route. These routes could cut shipping time between Asia and Europe. Because for most destinations they are much shorter than the current route via the Suez Canal. For now, navigation across the Arctic is limited and relies on expensive icebreakers. So, both mining as well as new shipping routes remain something for the future. Right now, fishing is the mainstay of Greenland's economy. But that is not enough. That's why Denmark has to chip in. Every year Denmark sends a grant of about 500 million euros to Greenland's government. It's about half of its budget – nearly ten thousand Euros per resident every year – a major factor for the island’s economy. That money runs everything and without it you end up with impoverished native villages, without economies that implode socially. But it's not charity. Denmark gets something out of it as well. Because we have Greenland, we kind of get a lot to say with the great powers such as the US, but also Canada and Russia. It means a lot politically. Denmark kind of punches above its weight in international politics. Whether Denmark likes it or not – most Greenlanders do not see their long-term future with Denmark. Inuit people have lived on the island for thousands of years. They survived by subsistence hunting of whales and seals. Their culture was based in the middle of nature. Modern Danish colonization started in 1721 with the first Danish settlements. Over the next 200 years, Christianity and the Danish language were pushed on the Inuit, their families were torn apart. And that trauma left a legacy. Only after World War 2, a slow process of decolonization started. Step by step, Greenland became an equal part of the Kingdom of Denmark, elected its own parliament and government. Today, it is a semiautonomous territory. This means that it governs its own domestic affairs. Denmark is still responsible for security and foreign policy. But Greenland has the right to declare independence if it decides to do so in a referendum. And the government of Greenland says that’s its goal. Polls suggest a clear majority support such a step. Of course, in the future I prefer an independent Greenland. We are our own people. We are not Danes, we are Greenlandic people and we want to be free. And what about Trump’s plans for the island? Do you want Greenland to be bought? No, not at all. Why not? Because it is our land and we have our culture, language and we are starting to get our own way of life. I don't really like this idea of being part of the United States of America. But what I do like is to work with them for example. This is a common opinion here. Because building the island’s economy is the biggest challenge on the way to independence. That is why Greenland is looking for partners. It has representative offices in Iceland, the EU, the US, and China. It has also signed cooperation agreements on mineral exploration with the US and the EU. So, it is trying to keep its options open. For Greenland, the US is an increasingly important business partner and had long guaranteed its security. So, Trump’s interest could easily lead to a wider discussion about Greenland’s future. I would certainly think that some Greenlanders will want to talk about it. Just because this kind of attention by the White House, this kind of attention by the world, it's like a once in a generation opportunity. Internationally, it will be relevant how Trump proceeds. For US allies in Europe, the issue of Greenland is part of a growing recognition that the Trump administration could even pose a threat to their security. Greenland strategically, through the lens of Trump grand strategy, is this idea of strengthening North America as their primary security focus for the government. So, it's the America first on steroids and America first in diplomacy. That’s why Denmark is seeking support from other European countries. It's been very clever from the Danish government to not make this an issue between the US and Denmark but between Europe and the US because we are way stronger together with the other European states. But the outcome of this dispute will be closely observed all around the world. Especially if Trump forces Denmark or Greenland into a deal. Trump is really talking about doing to Denmark what Putin is doing to Ukraine and what China wants to do to Taiwan. And so, all that might be a transition to a new world order that Russia, China and America might now all share the same strategic vision of spheres of influence being reestablished. In a world increasingly determined by the whims of great powers, will Greenlanders even get a say in determining their own future?