100,000 U.S. Churches May Close by 2050: What Can Be Done?

Introduction

• Context: In 2010, United Methodist church had 250 members in a rural community - largest congregation.
• Current Status: Post-Covid, size halved despite efforts like diverse services and community events.

Projected Church Closures

• Statistics: National Council of Churches estimates 100,000 U.S. churches to close within years, about a third of the 350,000 congregations face extinction.
• Historical Data: In 2019, 4,500 Protestant churches closed vs. 3,000 new openings.
• Concern: Community impact, not Christianity's survival.

Causes of Decline

A Perfect Storm

• Generational Attendance: Younger generations less involved.
  • 2021 Gallup Poll: U.S. church membership fell from 70% to 47%.
  • Boomers vs. Gen Z: 20% vs. 45% religiously unaffiliated.
• Increasing Costs: Staff and operational costs rise, offerings decline.
• Increased Competition: Internet allows competition with megachurches.
• Covid-19 Impact: Attendance decreased post-Covid, many never returned.

Decisions Over Discipleship

• Trend: Focus on decisions over discipleship for the past 40 years.
• Aim: Attract non-Christians, less focus on nurturing disciples.
• Outcome: Millennials and Gen Z less likely to retain church ties due to lack of deep faith conviction.

Harm and Hypocrisy

• Critique: American churches criticized for toxic theology and hypocrisy.
  • Focus on purity culture, anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ stances.
  • Hypocrisy perceived in older generations' political actions.

Solutions

Short-Term

• Population Growth: Fast-growing churches often in counties with economic growth.
  • Example: Elevation Church in Charlotte grew as city's population increased.

Long-Term

• Refocus on Discipleship: Encourage deep faith and community roots.
  • Requires mentoring relationships, openness to questions, no simple apologetics.
• Theological Rethink: Move away from toxic theology to retain youth.
  • Aligning politics with faith, not vice versa.

Future Outlook

• Expectation: American church landscape will change, many will close.
• Survival Strategy: Churches willing to change and focus on discipleship and community have better survival odds.