Notes on Arab Spring 10 Years On Round Table Discussion

Introduction

Event hosted by Jonathan Hill, Director of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London.
Purpose: Discussion on the impact of the Arab Spring after 10 years.
Introduction of the chair, Sir Mark Lyall Grant, former UK Ambassador to the UN.

Excitement during the Arab Spring in 2011 in various countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria.
Initial belief that ordinary citizens were pushing for democracy against autocratic regimes.
Western democracies felt compelled to support the protesters.

Failed to understand the dynamics and consequences of the Arab Spring.
Misjudged the role of Islamists in post-revolution environments (e.g., Egypt).
Underestimated the challenge of building democracy in regions with weak institutional history.
Western military involvement often worsened situations instead of improving them.

Arab Spring seen as a "false dawn"; less stability, more division, and less democracy.
Traditional Arab powers (Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya) weakened.
Non-Arab influence (Israel, Turkey, Iran, Russia, China) increasingly significant.

Protests Not Over: Arab uprisings are ongoing; protests continue in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq.
Protest Dynamics: Differences in organizational structure among protests (e.g., party-led vs grassroots).
Agency in Protests: Importance of networks and grassroots organization in sustaining protests.
Class Tensions: Economic grievances often united protesters, but class divisions can hinder unified political action.

Focus on Syria's situation post-Arab Spring.
The Assad regime's ability to crack down on protests was aided by fragmentation of the opposition.
The conflict in Syria has become protracted with severe humanitarian consequences.
ISIS emergence linked to failures in managing the aftermath of the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war.

Discussed Palestine's situation regarding the Arab Spring.
Noted the lack of significant revolts in the Palestinian territories due to focus on occupation and internal politics.
Highlighted Hamas's electoral victory in 2006 as a pivotal moment demonstrating a shift towards political Islam.
Emphasized the continued relevance of the Arab Spring dynamics despite the lack of a direct uprising.

Analysis of Gulf states' resilience during the Arab Spring.
Gulf monarchies weathered protests better than others, leading to a shift in power dynamics.
Noted ideological divides between Qatar (support for people’s movements) and UAE (counter-revolutionary stance).
Suggested the Arab Spring led to a polarized regional landscape with no clear path towards unity.

Impact of COVID-19: Pandemic exacerbated existing grievances in places like Lebanon, but also increased dependency on the status quo.
Media Independence: Difficulties in obtaining financial sustainability and independence for media in the region.
US Influence: The US's role in sustaining regimes is in flux; different administrations yield uncertain outcomes for the region.
Future of the Arab Spring: Early to determine success or failure; ongoing struggles indicate a long-term transformational process rather than a single event.
Libya's Situation: Military intervention seen as necessary to prevent greater bloodshed, but long-term outcomes remain uncertain.

The Arab Spring's legacy is complex and ongoing; many regions still experience protests and calls for change.
Future developments will be influenced by geopolitical factors including US-China relations.
The panelists agree on the importance of understanding local contexts and the multi-faceted dynamics at play in the region.