the story starts with a company named Toll Brothers so Toll Brothers is a company that is a more of a luxury home builder usually price points around $1 million plus worth of their homes and the companies I mean the best thing ever pretty much could have happen to this company right you had a big wealth effect in the economy with very low inventory in in real estate right and then you had actually mortgage rates go up which locked a lot of people in at very low interest rates and you had this kind of you know a couple year phenomenon where then somebody like a Toll Brothers a big home builder could basically give interest rates that were like teaser rates like they significantly undercut kind of the average mortgage out there right and so what's happened with Toll Brothers earnings per share is it's gone to the Moon literally like this is not normal just so you guys are aware this is not normal for a home builder to have their earnings per share go up like this no this isn't Just A Toll Brothers phenomenon this is if you look at pretty much all the public home builders and look at their earnings for share over the last few few years they've literally gone to the moon it's ridiculous right I mean look at this to Brothers went from a company that was kind of you know a $3 to $4 EPS to $15 here recently that's unbelievable right now there's been a lot of changes that are happening very recently in the higher end real estate market now remember for somebody like a Toll Brothers they're selling homes a million dollars plus well you know if you look at my city Vegas right I just kind of sorted here on Zillow a Million Dollar Plus Homes and I found there was over 900 results of million doll Plus Homes inventory has been climbing significantly specifically in this bracket if you go down to like the under 500k homes inventory is still a little tight in in that bracket but when we're talking a million dollars plus I can tell you inventory has loosened up extensively specifically really in the last 3 to 6 months okay let's look at this little area I have zoned in here in in my city right 109 results for for a Million Dollar Plus Homes there it's unbelievable and I'm seeing some people getting kind of desperate with some of these high ticket homes right this is Floyd Mayweather's old home right here okay the one that he used to feature on on all the boxing shows back in the day when they'd be documenting his life getting ready for a fight this was his famous home and he listed this for for sale and he just cut price $3 million not a not a small cut $3 million and he still can't move move that house right beautiful home very well done but he can't move it it's a monster but this is what's going on and I'm seeing more and more price cuts and the people that aren't doing the price Cuts those ones are just collecting dust they're not moving these homes now at this point in time right now additionally what we have seen here is since late September where mortgage rates bottomed around 6% we've seen a continuous move up in mortgage rates overall and it's fascinating because this is completely the opposite that every body thought was going to happen what everybody thought was going to happen was the Federal Reserve was going to start cutting interest rates which meant mortgage rates were going to plummet right and so people thought that mortgage rates were going to go from 6% into the fives at this point in time right now generally speaking if the Federal Reserve is in a cutting cycle generally speaking over time mortgage rates will drop and If the Fed is in a hiking cycle over time you'll mortgage rates go up but it doesn't work like instantly like that sometimes there's a 6 or 12 month lag there between the Federal Reserve cutting rates because just because the FED cuts the the the interest rate when it comes to Fed funds rate that does not mean magically mortgage rates go down because mortgage rates are affected by things outside of that and so if suddenly let's say treasury yields are jumping right because they believe inflation's coming back the fed's going to have to go higher and all those sorts of things right then that can actually mean mortgage rates are going to go higher and higher and higher so this is just a little Foo for thought in regards to this and this is what's happened and ultimately this none of this bodess well for somebody like a Toll Brothers like if you're talking about mortgage rates going higher when people thought they were going to go lower if you're talking about really this is a main culprit though what I'm seeing is inventory starting to pile up in a lot of markets I don't think that bodess very well for Toll Brothers and so I started a position uh B basically betting against to brother stock as a hedge for my portfolio of like well if things go south here at least my portfolio's got a hedge and so across my portfolios I hedged with a Toll Brothers put right this specific one in the public count made me over 100% And I had bought this on October 18th Less Than 3 months ago so I made over a 100% gain in less than 3 months on these Toll Brother puts I sold it out completely additionally I had B I had bought you know quite uh a few put options in my public account as well in regards to to Brothers as well these were 170 puts these were playing on the safer side but I made over 70% on these look at this one was open November 12th this one was open December 9th so I made a lot of money in a very short amount of time in these puts and I have now completely 100% sold out of all my put options on Toll Brothers now at this point in time I have no put options on Toll Brothers anymore now at this point in time right now the reason it's gone so well right is because to brother stock plummeted I mean look at this this is actually I was watching some CNBC one day uh and I saw you know they they brought this graphic up here to Brothers literally the worst stock of the home builders down 23.3% month to date uh just incredible move now do I believe there's more juice to be squeezed in regards to Toll Brother put options here's my opinion I think there's a chance to squeeze some more juice here it is possible it's possible possible that to Brothers goes down to $80 or below $100 okay and right now it's in the 120s so it's possible it goes to under $100 or maybe even goes to $80 range with that being said I don't want to push my bets in regards to that and the way I I'll put it to you guys like this right is you be greedy with your long positions when you own great companies you can afford to be greedy with them you can afford to have them go up hundreds of percent over time and not worry about selling right th% if you own truly great companies that's what they do they are going to appreciate hundreds of perent thousands of percent or tens of thousands of perc over time that's what great companies do you go look at you know track record of all the great companies you would respect on a high level and that's what they do right when it comes to Hedges when it comes to bets against stocks against indexes things like that you don't get greedy if you make a ton of money in a very short amount of time when it comes to Hedges you take your profit and you say peace out I'm out of here you run okay that's me in regards to toll so although there's a chance we can call it if I had to put an odds on it I live in Vegas they put odds on everything right if I had to put odds on it I would say there's probably about a 5050 chance toal goes under $100 in the next 6 months I would say there's probably a 20% chance that it goes under $80 in the next 6 months with that being said I don't want to take that risk because let's say I'm wrong and toll starts to drift back higher right it goes to 130 140 150 people say yeah maybe inventory is going up but Toll Brothers will be fine they'll still put up great numbers they're going to buy back a ton of shares they're going to up their dividend blah blah blah all my profits are going to go evaporate in that situation right it's all going to go bye bye bye bye bye bye very very quickly and so I look at it and I say I got a chance to make a huge profit here a massive percentage peace out I'm out like I'm good like if to Brothers continues to go down and it goes to 90 bucks and I'm like dang I I left some on the table fine with me like that's just part of the game you know what we call that we call it the cost of doing business it's the cost of doing business okay you're never going to time these things out perfectly but if you get a chance to make a fortune in a very short amount of time you got to take that opportunity when it comes to your Hedges right be greedy with your long positions now additionally I have been receiving some dividend money right Nike just paid me out $495 in the public account meta just paid me out $850 in the public account this is another reason you can be greedy with your long positions right is over you know years those stocks should appreciate appreciate but additionally when you own great companies that also pay dividends right they pay those dividends like I'm going to have another 500 plus dollars coming in from Nike stock 3 months from now I'm going to have another $850 plus dollars coming in from meta another 3 months from now right and Nike and meta are probably going to up those dividends more and more and more right and the the great thing is I get that money every 3 months and then I can reinvest that money I think it's you know meta next year is probably going to be paying me out $11,000 plus cuz I think they're going to go up in their div their dividend in my opinion they're probably going to start paying me out $1,000 plus every 3 months just for meta which means I'll probably be collecting four five maybe even $6,000 a year just in the public account alone from the dividends meta paid me out you can afford to be a little greedy when it comes to your long positions okay how would you like access to all my best course curriculum my becoming Master of the stock market course my stock market investing Mastery course my stock options Mastery course my millionaire Playbook how would you like access to all my best courses as well as the ability to have access to my six and seven figure plus Discord Community where we're constantly keeping in touch with each other talking about what's going on in the market how would you like exclusive weekly videos from me how would you like the ability to see what stocks I'm buying and selling in my $2 million plus fidelity account if that all sounds pretty interesting to you apply to join my private group that is going to be linked in the description area down there you can click on that fill out an application and go ahead hop on a call with Andre Andre will walk you through the whole process it'll walk you through the whole group and you can go ahead and join us in there once again the link for that is in the description area the cheese cake factory oh do I love this one oh do I love this one I'm trying to buy every share and site stock has returned 34% over the past year that does not include the dividends received for this one now I would say the majority of individuals watching this video right now you've heard of The Cheesecake Factory before it's such a famous restaurant brand I would say it's one of the most famous uh certainly in the world at least you know in my opinion right company-owned restaurants 215 uh in North America right as far as International they have licensed uh over 30 restaurants as well they talk about maybe being take it up to like 300 domestic locations Long Term in regards to a Cheesecake Factory we'll see what happens with that right but that's great Cash Cow business very successful we know cheesecake right uh also super high unit volumes I mean look at this $12 million plus unit volumes for cheesecake uh the next closer would be meganos maganos 9.8 mil Yard House 9.7 mil Texas Roadhouse 7.6 mil BJ 6.1 mil all of G 5.6 mil right and then goes down from there so the Cheesecake Factory concept is a is a absolute animal cash flow machine very successful restaurant brand one of the most successful in history right and that's great like that's the ATM machine for this company but let me be very clear the reason I'm invested I kind of think about it like this right if you look it back to obviously paler being such a successful stock for me I never bought paler for the government opportunity I bought paler stock for really the commercial opportunity CU I always viewed that as a way bigger long-term opportunity than the government business right and that's proving to to come true now right very similar view that I have a Cheesecake Factory where you could look at this company you could be buying it for just a Cheesecake Factory restaurant concept right which is very successful Cash Cow but the things that are coming behind cheesecake are like that paler commercial growth in my opinion where it's just Relentless year after year and it's going to become much bigger than the the the current business right now okay so North Italia is one of those such Concepts now when it comes to North Italia this is a in my opinion very modern concept making Italian food that is much needy in the market Olive Garden very poor quality at Olive Garden okay if you know Italian food well like you know all of gardens like not very good Italian food okay North Italia complete opposite North Italia you could you could put that up there with like Mom and Pop like really good quality mom and pop ATT Ian restaurants you could put North Italia like up on that sort of mantle like very very high quality Italian food now additionally they do about 25% alcohol mix which shows you the quality of the food at North Italia because in order to really get people to come spend on alcohol you're going to be attracting the right type of consumers and those sorts of consumers usually aren't going to eat the food at the place unless the food's really freaking good okay so North Italia they make such good food which which helps attract consumers that have plenty of money and those people with plenty of money are more than willing to buy a bottle of wine or a few cocktails while they're there and those cocktails are you know 105 $20 so North Talia has an incredible opportunity here right they're going to expand this all over the United States of America right and this is a cheesecake type opportunity CU they're talking about 200 domestic locations over time right and you look at Cheesecake right now we just went through that cheesecake has about 215 domestic locations that are owned by the company so this is a this is an this what people got to understand like North Italia has an opportunity to be just as big as a Cheesecake Factory right in North Italia doesn't have to do as big of revenues because the locations can be a lot smaller but because the margins could be a lot higher here due to alcohol sales and being able to maybe churn a little bit faster right they're actually set up to to be just as much of an ATM machine long term as a Cheesecake Factory concept is right now and I think if we fast forward 7even 10 years from now you would see that right but that's the tip of the iceberg we got a way bigger opportunity this company has North T is not even the biggest the biggest opportunity and when I first started buying the stock I didn't even understand how big of a concept this was until I really went down the rabbit hole with this and I'm like oh my gosh like this is bigger than North Italia this is going to be bigger than Cheesecake Factory in my opinion the a concept called flowerchild this flower child concept hits on all the places you really want to be in in the day and age it does not have like servers and waiters and waitresses and things like that right it's a concept where you go up you know you order you this beautiful menu there the foods all very high quality healthy a lot of high protein related Foods so it definitely meets a lot of the criteria that the modern Generations are really looking for right a lot of the restaurants are very bright um you know and they are able to do these in much smaller locations but the fascinating thing with flowerchild is they're doing about 50% of their sales off premise meaning somebody orders flower child and goes and picks it up they don't actually eat in flower child right which is very different than Cheesecake Factory concept or or North Italia certainly right and so when you think about this you're going to be able to build much smaller locations which means you can put a lot more locations in other places when you talk about Cheesecake Factory the actual Cheesecake Factory you need a lot of space to put one of those down like a lot of space flower child you do not need a lot space which creates a a a dynamic here where you could make maybe 500 or maybe even a th000 locations long term for flower child they have not given a specific Target but based upon the latest investor conference what I heard from what management team was sound like is they believe there's going to be more locations of flower child than Cheesecake Factory or anything else they have and so this is a crazy big opportunity is it a Chipotle type opportunity I wouldn't go that far I wouldn't go as far to say flower child's the next Chipotle but I would put it somewhere between a Chipotle type opportunity and like a North Italia type opportunity that's where I would put it like this is the granddaddy of them all in my personal opinion right and so this will have the most locations in my opinion long term and this will also have the best margins the margins sound like they're incredible out of out of flowerchild as well so keep an eye on flower child and don't be surprised if 5 years from now you see this in every single major city and probably multiple in every single major city across the United States huge huge opportunity remember as the brand gets bigger it's going to get easier and easier for them to open up day one and already be likely very very profitable right which is you know a lot of people never heard of this brand as of right now 5 years from now I think we're going to be in a very different situation 7 years from now and I think it's going to be yeah this is like huge huge opportunity now additionally behind that they own Fox restaurant Concepts which all owns a bunch of these other brands dough bird Blanco Wildflower Arrogant Butcher the greenhouse olive and ivy uh which by the way have a great location in Scottdale if you've never been to that location you ever looking to go on a date night with your mes okay or your Mister whoever uh check out the location it's um kind of by fashion by fashion it Fashion Square Mall Fashion Square mall it's right on the waterfront there oh beautiful beautiful location anyways I had a good time there fly by zinberg the Henry these sorts of opportunities Culinary Dropout these are in testing phase right now so they have 47 locations of these basically all these locations are phenomenally run the food's good the drinks are good there um you know they're busy like go to any of these Concepts and if you if you live in Arizona you have a vacation in Arizona Phoenix area Scotsdale whatnot go to some of these locations you're going to find they're busy and they're phenomenal but these ones are in testing phase right now okay and and you got to understand about the restaurant industry most restaurants have trouble even making it right so that's like a stage like can you make it the second question is can you not only have one location but multiple locations in in a market right the next question after that is can you take it to more of a regional play like let's say the West Coast of United States and the last well the next phase after that is National can you go National can you go all the United States and then the last phase is can you go International right and the biggest brands in the food space have been able to do that Taco Bell and McDonald's and Starbucks and those sorts of Brands right Chipotle maybe even going International right so those are the kind of the phases so what what what Cheesecake Factory is doing with the the F FRC Concepts is they're basically testing these out they're saying let's see like what if we open up a second location Third location fourth location what if we take this to another market right and they're basically testing this out seeing like can this work in another Market can this work in another market right it that's the the way you find out if we have another North Italia coming if we have another flower child coming those sorts of opportunities right and so you know you look here and they're opening a lot of these you know the Cheesecake Factory for instance they've only opened up one recently one right all the major growth for this company is in North Italia flower child Culinary Dropout they open three locations so see they're taking something like Culinary Dropout very serious just very recently they opened up three locations a Culinary Dropout Atlanta Georgia shout out to Atlanta if anybody's watching this bming Alabama in Dallas Texas anybody watching this from Dallas Texas okay uh so this is like kind of in that testing phase where they're like let's see several different markets right let's see if this is going to be successful cuz I can tell you the culinary dropouts in in uh Scottdale in the Phoenix area of Arizona are very successful but it's like okay can we get outside of Scottdale can we get outside of Phoenix and go to go to other cities and other states out there and really see you know what what's going on so if you look here 202 they open up 13 new restaurants 2023 16 new restaurants uh like around 22 is uh restaurants in 2024 and they'll probably open I would say 25 to 30 restaurants in 2025 right and I believe after 2025 they should be able to open up about I would say about 30 to 40 Restaurants a year for honestly like the next like decade like literally they could probably add 30 to 40 Restaurants every single year for like the next 10 years if not take it up to 50 locations like flower child alone as they get more data and they see how successful this concept is I wouldn't be surprised if if flower child concept alone they start doing 20 to 30 locations a year just a flower child then you got North italiy on top of that culinary dropouts probably the next hit right Blanco might be the next hit we'll see right like gosh so so you got to understand there's a lot of new restaurants coming um here down the pipeline for cheesecake and they just they have the next 10 20 years just already laid out for them no this I think is very important cuz you always want to kind of look at how did a restaurant perform during the great great financial crisis now keep in mind Cheesecake Factory during the great financial crisis I would say a much weaker company back then right only one brand um I wouldn't say their their financials are nearly as strong as nowadays so they're a much weaker company but yet look at how well they they got through the great financial crisis one their comp restaurant sales weren't down nearly as much as their their their competition right additionally I want you to pay attention right here this shows you adjusted earnings or loss per share in 2009 2010 2009 2010 where a disaster economy massively high unemployment right not a good time to be in the restaurant business a lot of restaurants went under in 2009 2010 and then look at look at how cheesecake did $107 in in in 09 and a142 in 2010 keep in mind this is a much weaker company back then than the cheesecake you see nowadays look at free cash flow free cash flow of $163 million in 2009 free cash flow in 2010 of $128 million it's incredible it's incredible now the great thing with cheesecake is if the company ever ever has to go through a great financial crisis type time where unemployment goes to 10% or something like that right cut dividends cut share BuyBacks open Less locations and your free cash flow is going to fly like it's incredible like that's a very very special company and that makes me feel very comfortable holding this because Mo most of the time the economy is going to be decent right sometimes the economy is going to be great and sometimes the economy is going to be crap and I want to hold companies that I feel can can get through whatever right now Additionally you look at the dividend here of Cheesecake right so they were upping it from 2018 2019 they upped it from 29 cents to 33 cents then they up it going into 2020 from 33 cents to 36 Cents and what happened boom government shuts down the world right and so that devastated the restaurant industry we all know what it was so then finally cheesecake was able to bring back their dividend in May of 2022 and so far they've kept the dividend steady at 27 cents I do believe there's a extremely high probability that in 2025 they do go up on that dividend I think they're probably going to go up to 30 to 35 cents per share you own of and that's per quarter getting paid out there so that's why I believe you know we'll see what happens but I I think there's extremely high probability they're going up on that dividend right now they want to keep a lot of their cash flow to build Out locations cuz as their biggest opportunity but it's still great that you get that dividends paid out to you in the meantime right it's pretty sweet Additionally you look at their latest income statement from their latest quarter it was in grade A like a really good numbers $865 million of Revenue versus $830 food and beverage cost dropped as a percent of Revenue significantly labor expenses did as well right you look at total cost as as a percent of expenses went to 96.1% before was 97.7% right income from operations went to 3.9% Revenue I think these numbers are going to continue to climb over this next year so I don't think we've reached a top here and so the numbers continue to Trend better and I think that's honestly I think that's going to be a multi-year thing you see play out there right so that's phenomenal no in regards to cake the the this is silly I mean it's trading out fordp of 13 way too cheap I mean when we're talking about this company has two basically guaranteed massive growth Concepts tra you know coming behind them there's no reason at all that this company should not be commanding a 20 to a 30 forward P right now right now you're going to see how silly this is going to be over this next three years you'll see and you'll be like ah like that was ridiculous like a Ford Pia 13 with those major growth Concepts coming behind him like it's not like those are in question mark phase where it's like oh you know it's north Italia going to make no no like go to North Italia anywhere and you'll realize quickly like oh yeah like this is going to be huge across the whole United States uh go to a flower child any location they have you be like oh yeah like this is like no question like this is like going to be huge over this next many many years so yeah this they'll look back and be like this was silly right so up $25,000 so far in the stock does not include dividends long way to go in this one I'm still buying shares and I'm going continue to buy shares throughout 2025 I don't think I'm done buying the stock anytime soon I just got to be quite Frank with you guys long way to go okay