[Music] heat heat [Music] heat up here [Music] hey everybody how's it going it is Sunday the 6th of April 2025 let's take a look really quickly here at my screen using the futures on Trading View so uh I've got a lot of moving parts here this evening so uh just bear with me a little bit uh this is uh being delayed on Twitter for uh just a a little moment uh so here we go i am going to repost that and I have to place this in one other spot so let me just make sure that uh everyone can see that we are live and where is that so okay very good so this is being recorded as well so again it is uh Sunday evening the 6th of April what I'm not going to talk about is yet another opinion of what these tariffs mean instead we're going to talk about price action starting out with here on uh Trading View we can see this is our uh actually two-day chart so each one of these bars on here on the left is two days of trading in the middle here I've got a five minute time frame and over here I was trading these things so I found that the best time frame to trade with is a 15-second chart which is insane nobody should be trading on a 15-second chart in normal times but these are not normal times obviously these futures are down what are they 5% for uh maybe a little less than 4% right now 3.6% at the moment we had been down close to 6% here at this low of 40 uh 4830 so what does all this mean well again we need to look at levels of interest i talk about that all the time i'm not looking for any level and saying "Hey we're at support." Because anyone who's done that so far has been 100% wrong and they don't really understand supply and demand so what I want to talk about is supply and demand for stocks not about what the economics of tariffs are my business is stock trading that's what I do that's how I get paid this is what my interest in this whole thing is doesn't mean I don't care about the economy and all that but this is my job and this is my my time to shine really and so far this year uh you you've heard me say it you know don't buy the dip we're in a downtrend this is not a normal environment i've closed uh Friday's video by saying it's better to be on the sidelines and cash wishing you were in than it is to be in and wishing you were out so even the people who bought Friday who thought "Hey it's down 10% in two days it can't get any worse." It can always get worse there's no such thing as down too much when there's still sellers there's so much uncertainty and chaos in this market and that's what's going to keep us volatile so we've undercut the low from the uh July of 2023 uh I'm sorry this is the October of 2022 low in the S&P 500 futures we just obliterated that level there was no pause and what I was talking about is we look at these levels for potential of support someone on my my Twitter said or I'm sorry on YouTube said you know you're calling these things level of support that's of interest that's just another fancy word for support and I said no it's not saying I'm not saying it's support it has the potential to become support if there's a enough demand and we don't see that certainly on a two-day chart when you're intraday trading we don't see that on a daily time trade time frame you start looking at 15 second charts look at these moves i know most people here are are equities traders so if this was the spy this is uh let's just call it 48910 or 48915 take a decal point off to 493 even that was just a fourpoint move up and these are 15 seconds bars and it came down even faster more than four points so there's a lot of opportunity if you're a skilled trader and guess what most people aren't skilled traders if you're going to buy the dip even here look you just bought at 493 and here it is 489 that is you know tremendous opportunity for skilled day traders but even there I don't know how you make sense of that so what we're looking at is potential levels where the buyers might show up we look at that and say the anchored volume weighted average price for the S&P 500 from 2020 is down here right at about 47.85 it's not that far away that's just another half a day of trading the way we're looking at these markets right now so it's a level of interest what we want to look at if you're looking to find the bottom one you're most likely going to be unsuccessful that's just a fact and again I'm a trader i'm not interested in buying weakness i'm not interested when buy when you know in buying blood when there's blood in the street these streets have been bloody for the last couple of months they rallied up to the anchor from the year-to- date high and they alltime high and got smashed they've been below a declining fiveday moving average as I always talk about that now is not the time to be a buyer you'll never catch the bottom if you're looking to buy while the market is below the declining fiveday moving average but you're also guaranteed not to buy right here here here any of these spots on the way down and even when you do buy when we get these rallies like this this was a nice rally there's nothing wrong with trading that to the long side but you've got to get out and you've got to get out quickly when the market tells you to this is the anchor from the tariffs this was the moment the the tariffs were announced right right here that was of course on Wednesday uh right at the close uh right right after the close of equities but you know the futures were still open so we traded in the futures for for an hour whatever it is and then we gapped lower again and you know going forward here's what I'm going to be looking at the anchor from the tariffs is going to be a very important level when we get bounces and I don't see any evidence of a bounce here you know on this 15-second chart let's just make it a little bit more sane for people because most people never even look at a one minute chart but here's our one minute chart here's the anchor from the beginning of trading today we gapped lower okay so there's Friday's close we gapped lower so I just changed the scaling so I can see it a little bit easier um is is what I like to do but right now it's trying to find buyers at the anchor from the low that was made right here and from the day and this prior low right in here so right before I came on I was scrambling because I traded a little bit in here now I'm not trading because I can't do both things at once but right now you know we're trying to stabilize at the anchor from the low of the session that's right over here and now this higher low is also where we're coming in we had the What is this this is a big shakeout this is volatility that's what you get in these types of market environments that's what's guaranteed is that we're going to see a lot of volatility last week I had people asking about all kinds of qu uh you know stocks and we'll talk about some stocks a little bit here but instead I want to do this i want to take a look right now at some historical selloffs so what we're going to do is look at first 1929 to 1932 brian does that mean you think we're going to crash no but it doesn't mean I don't think it's possible anything's possible as as I said to uh Justin Neielsson at IBD you know earlier this week when I was talking to him um you know if I had a dollar for every time the market surprised me I would never have to trade stocks again because that that's what the markets do from 1929 to 1932 and 1930 July June of 1930 was when we had tariffs last that was uh right in here in 1930 that's when the the the Smoot Holly act was so right in here anyways the high to the low went from 386 to 40 that was a 90% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials back then and the thing is it didn't go straight down it never does but look at the orange 200 day moving average what's the direction of that 200 day moving average the entire time when we had rallies this first rally from 195 to new 297 that was a 52% rally but then it got hit 49% from there or I'm sorry what was the next one 30% right here that you know it rallied 52% down 30% then it rallied 19% right here almost got the media to say I don't know if they said it back then that it was a bull market because 20% we were in a bare market while we're below a declining 200 day moving average the market is guilty until proven innocent you'll hear me say that over and over again it doesn't mean there aren't shorter term opportunities to trade the long side because again look at these rallies we had in you know from the low of $4.56 with still a flat moving 200 day moving average we had a 100% rally but then what happened off of that peak right here of what is that 8139 so from that peak of 8139 the market dropped 40% after that and then we had the flat to rising 200 day moving average then we saw 122% rally and then that bare market was over again that doesn't mean that's what I think was going to happen now yeah and when we look at you know 2000 even 20 thou in 2000 the market ga uh uh traded down 50% and it didn't go straight down 50% but look at the direction of the 200 day moving average right in here it tried to flatten out but we didn't make a higher high instead it didn't flatten out until right here and we started to make those higher highs and higher lows the point is during this 50% decline we saw rallies of 10% 15% 22 25 9 and a half 6 25 and 24% but the sum of the declines was greater than the sum of the rallies meaning lower highs and lower lows so the point is there's going to be some great trading opportunities coming up and and and there will be many bottoms called and most of them will be incorrect i would say well we're below a declining 200 day moving average it might take a year it might take I I don't know maybe this market will bottom in six weeks i don't think so but the market doesn't care what I think i have an open mind i'm going to follow price action on the shorter term time frames if I have to trade off a 15-second chart that's what I'll trade off of if I have to trade off of you know 10-minute charts that's where I'm going to trade as well i prefer that i don't like trading on 15-second charts that's kind of insane um but again I've been doing this full-time since 1991 i haven't seen you know I lived through this and I made money during this decline a 50% decline for the market but look at the magnitude of these declines every time people told you we're at a bottom and they'll speak so loud the loudest people are typically the the the ones who were wrong so listen to price action don't listen to me i I'm I'm not giving you my opinion saying we're going to go down another 30% we're going down another 40% that wouldn't that would mean nothing i would be making that up 100% just like everybody else does that would be complete and I'm I'm not here to do that i'm here to make money i don't care if it gets more engagements or less engagements i want to help people avoid the carnage in this market and ideally lead them to making some money because most people like to trade long myself included i would I prefer to you know trade these rallies during an overall decline but I don't trust those rallies just as we spoke about last week the rally up to the anchored VWAP from the all-time high that was a nice rally but then we had the tariff news the market rolled over and we have lower highs and lower lows continuing throughout this year i've said from the last couple of weeks that I didn't share the enthusiasm that I see all over the place on Twitter because on X because uh because we were below a declining 20 and 50 day moving average doesn't mean I'm not going to trade long and mostly I'm going to be trading the indexes in here i'm not going to be trading individual stocks so much because there's too much you know individual stock uncertainty i'm not an economist and you know even the economists how often do they get it right how often do the does the media get it right and there's all kinds of opinions and there's a lot of smart people putting out great information about what this means for the economy and of course I care about that but not as much as what I care about what shows on my charts this is what I care about this is what I get paid on this is what I get paid to help people understand and participate in i help them avoid these declines just like last week I said "Listen this market bounces over um for Palunteer and the AMD was a complete piece of garbage and I did not understand why people continually ask me about it week after week after week about wanting to buy it." So let's take a look at the you know 2001 i didn't put the percentages on here but this was a brutal period the high of 2001 down to 2022 I'm sorry 2021 to 2022 uh and you know these were big rallies 50 point rally on a $4,400 that's that's a 12% and look at these declines from 460 to 380 that was a huge decline did you buy the dip here did you buy the dip here this dip or this dip did you have any money left over here i want to help you avoid this kind of stuff let's see this was 2009 uh 2007 high uh so this was a 57% decline in the S&P 500 and what happened well we saw huge moves we saw a decline of 8% a decline of 10% then a rally of seven nine five these are big moves and if you're a trader it's it's not easy but it's simple it's simple if you listen to price action the FOMO has been so strong and I see it with Alpha Trend subscribers hey what do you think about this stock what Hey what do you think about Amazon what do you think about Apple what do you think about AMD i want to buy them for my long-term account there's no reason to yet these are stocks that are below 200 day moving averages not all of them but these are stocks that are broken and if you want to buy stocks in downtrends just expect to lose money i don't make the rules this is just how they trade this is what market action is and let's go back to uh those futures and we will also take a look in here so right in here it's just getting all chopped up again so let me bring down Bitcoin as I've said I'm not really I haven't been interested in Bitcoin i wasn't going to short it but I think that it's still I still think it's highly likely that we come down to this 6869,000 level and perhaps we're on our way it had been holding up a little bit relatively stronger so we've got a daily chart on the left which we're just going to expand that that's a two-hour chart so you can see in the last eight hours Bitcoin's been getting hammered pretty good um and which which reminds me is that you know you look at uh oil oil's the same thing it's getting smashed it's below that anchor from way back uh that I pointed out here from the 2016 low so you look at these things just getting smashed the way they are and it's not just equities it's what about you know silver's down three and a half% right now where's gold gold's down 1.2% it is said that in a crisis all correlations go to one which means go ahead and try to hide out in gold or in Bitcoin or whatever but when there's selling and there's panic which there is which we're starting to see a lot of just don't expect to make money bonds sure you can make some money in bonds because they're rallying um let's take a look there what's the uh what's the symbol it's not is it uh I thought it's like forward slashdn i never look at uh bonds i at the TLT um I thought it was ZN i bet you there's someone out there trying to tell me what it is but uh you know what i have it on my phone let me take a look here real quick um sorry for the interruption but let's make this accurate i just put this in today too it is ZN why isn't it showing up then maybe it has to be capitalized ZN oh no that's indicators that's why use this platform as much so um ZN there we go wait what happened zn but maybe I don't pay for the Cabbot i don't know anyways bonds are rallying a little bit uh but gold even gold's down and you know gold's in an uptrend overall but you know what's your stop where do you where do you get out of gold um that's up to you what do is it off of one of these anchors do you say "Hey it's still behaving well from that last pullback or now it's testing it." That's for you to decide i just look at these things and say "Here's what looks most likely." I don't like to short Bitcoin so I don't have a position in here i could have shorted and made money but it's not my comfort level just like I don't trade bank stocks i I don't I just don't trade them i've lost money doing that over in you know my the history of my trading or you know broke even maybe at best in in financials so what do you feel comfortable with what's your time frame my time frame is that of a swing trader that's what I try to be this market isn't let isn't letting me be a swing trader what about shorting you know why not just short the S&P 500 and stay short i don't know it just doesn't suit my personality somehow of course I can look at it in hindsight and say I should have sold as it was you know being rejected at the anchor from the all-time high and held on to that short but I didn't so no one's a perfect trader i don't claim to be one anthony Cordelli had a great post this weekend talking about you know I trade the market on my terms i don't I'm not trying to be the best trader and I'm not trying to be the best trader either i'll let Lance Brightstein do that he's you know he's he's the guy who can do that kind of stuff but I do well in the markets and I do it on my terms i have rules of engagement so what's my strategy for tomorrow well my strategy for tomorrow is the same strategy that I had on Thursday and on Friday and I shared that with subscribers that I'm not in a hurry to get involved i'm going to take a look at the uh equities charts here so let's take a look at um where is that screen why isn't it showing up here um one day I got to sit down and really learn this technology better uh where is TC2000 there we go okay so here's the spy on TC2000 and you know right now where are we we're down probably at about uh well we're down 4% from here um 4% of five you know we're down 25 points so we're well we're basically at about 480 um in the spy so where is 480 on here um let's take a look my drawing tool is there so we're down we're getting close well we're actually about 490 so we're pretty much down to the anchor off of these lows and is there any evidence the buyers are gaining control there is not any evidence so we can look at things like let me get that low we can look at Fibonacci and say you know maybe we're going to come down to the anchor off that low maybe we're going to come down to the 61.8% retracement if you know what I've been talking about the last couple weeks I've been drawing uh this in here on the weekly chart i guess I don't have that there but I've been drawing in on these uh longer term charts what I thought was most likely and in particular for the semiconductors I've been drawing something that looks like this saying you know maybe we come down to the anchor from the 2022 low in the next 3 to six months instead it happened in two weeks and you know so the bottom line is when we're below these key moving averages when I say that means we're guilty until proven innocent it means don't trust rally attempts when we get the spy rallying up to perfectly sorry for all the movement around right up to the anchor from the all-time high and getting rejected and then last week as we broke below the anchor from the beginning of last week's low that's when you you know that's when I got short i got long over you know and and I didn't cover it all perfectly i never do um but I did trade long in here and then as I told subscribers I said "Listen we've got this rally coming and I mean we've we've experienced this rally after the close we've got this tariff event do I want to hold a long here after we've just seen a rally from 547 up to 570?" No because what if what if we gap lower i didn't say or think it was going to gap lower but I thought what if it does and I didn't hold over the weekend uh any short position because what if it gapped up i'm not into what ifs i look at it and say the greater odds are that we're going to continue lower we have a declining fiveday moving average i will day trade this on the long side with that with when we're rallying but with that declining fiveday moving average and it's only for a day trade when we see it continuing lower I say you know I just don't trust it i'm not interested in being the guy who calls the low we have the possibility of coming down to the 2020 low in the spy that would bring us down to what level that would bring us down to you know 425 i don't think it's you know you know I I hope it doesn't happen but I wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me at all if that's exactly what does happen let me see if we've got uh actually I have some uh questions from Alpha Trend subscribers uh about some stocks to look at so we'll do that as well um now like I said I've got a lot of screens open here so I need to uh find that and that camera's in my way so I've got to move my head um which tab was it did I close it might have closed it so let me go and take a look here meanwhile you know every single week I've done this from January at the inception of the uh show everyone is always asking about AMD long what did I say last week i said you know at bet you know that this is likely just another lower high in a downtrend don't trust rallies with a declining 200 day moving average you can get rallies perhaps up to there but even those will eventually stall out roll over and make you never bought them so let's take a look at a couple of stocks um teed up this is a $2 stock that just went from 50 to $2.60 so it's up 400% it's you know in a bearish environment you know it's a bullish looking chart but as I've been saying for the last couple weeks today's relative strength is tomorrow's stock to sell if you're long this stock I think if it breaks back below the year-to- date anchor and you know it's held the year-to- date anchor if it closes below there you got to get out how about AT&T another one that you know it broke to an you know it's been in a solid uptrend I fully expect it to drop down to 25 and a half at a minimum and you know there is you know in a in a bearish environment all correlations go to one so they all get hit hard so I don't even think you should be looking at at longs even Apple apple last week was you know one that I spoke about and here we are it's getting hit it's doing what it's supposed to do unfortunately again don't shoot the messenger we're down below the anchor from the 2023 low let's take a look from the COVID low maybe we're headed towards the COVID low anchor 150 it sounds like a lot it is a lot but it doesn't seem unrealistic to me not in this environment where fear is you know where we are now so again I don't expect it to you know just go straight to that level maybe it caps down a little bit tomorrow and then maybe something happens maybe we'll get some news on Wednesday and we see a rally like this great trade it because what's most likely is that it's going to do this get a little blip here get people excited come back down and that's the way stocks trade when the market's in a downtrend how about WGS i don't know this one how's that possible wgs is a stock that's been in a huge uptrend and it looks like that uptrend relative strength is broken it's below the year-to- date anchor it's below the anchor from the election let's take a look at the next level of interest would be the anchor from here down at the 200 day moving average i would highly expect that it I would say it's highly likely that it will go down to that level so that's what we're looking at in terms of individual stocks um and you know we can look at we can look at the popular names what did I say you know same thing like I mean it's not "Hey I told you so i promise." The point is this is what you should expect in a downtrend when you have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that's called a downtrend the sum of the declines is greater than the sum of the rallies you can trade these bounces but be sure that you're just trading them and even if you trade them let's make let's take a look at the spy going back to um that last sell-off right in here so even during this decline we you know as the 200 day was you know we made that higher high there don't get tricked by these higher highs not when they've already made a big move when it runs 10% then makes you know then breaks out people call that a breakout be very careful look in here instead at your 30 minute time frames and the fiveday moving average probably looks like this and then it looks like this and you know let's put a fiveday moving average on there like I say I never use a five-day moving average uh on um daily charts but let's take a look at a simple moving average why isn't it pulling up here we go uh and we'll make it orange because I like my fiveday moving average to be orange for whatever reason um so orange and five this is what I talk about all the time by the way I'm having an alpha trend sale i don't know if you saw but look at the fiveday moving average over there if you were going to be you know don't short when we're above a fiveday moving average and it starts to break down at least move to the sidelines if you're a trader if you're an investor I can't help you talk to Josh Brown he'll tell you what to do and I and I mean that sincerely that's not my game that's not my time frame that's not what I do buy right here get out quickly lower highs lower lows look at the fiveday moving average and swing trade based around that fiveday moving average and we had a nice rally here that was a nice rally but most of the year we've been below a declining 5day moving average except for you know these few days uh right in here and right at the start of the year we had a couple of days but the fiveday moving average is my guidepost for swing trading i've been preaching about that forever um if you don't want to subscribe to Alpha Trends for $1,000 a year um it's actually the normal price is $12.99 it's a,000 bucks now you also get two courses that are about 20 hours of training you get a Discord channel that I participate in every single day you get uh three monthly webinars um what else is there three daily videos um you know individual stock ideas so just take a big deep breath for this week and you know most people probably should not be trading that's just the simple fact there's too much volatility look if I'm trading on a 15-second chart things are nuts um but I'm an addict i've been doing this is in my blood i've been doing this full-time since 1991 um I'm not looking to change my ways i'm looking to make money and that's what trading is about forget about the headlines forget about the hundred new opinions you're going to hear about tariffs and what they mean follow price action and be really quick to admit you're wrong this is the time where you're going to learn you're going to earn your trading stripes really um if you're a new trader and you've been learning you you just started your account in February you learn are learning in the perfect environment because you don't forget these memories you know because you you get to see it go down and you get to what's possible for other people who've known nothing but a bullish environment and buy the dip they always come back eventually they'll come back I don't know how long nobody knows but I do remember you know that I you know my career is long enough that I remember in here that this took 16 years to make a new high for the NASDAQ 16 years now is it going to take another 16 years this time I don't know I don't make predictions I look at I I look at potential levels of support in in demand and I say "Okay is there evidence on a shorter term time frame if so how can I take a trade here with the lowest amount of risk set my stop and if the market disagree agrees with me I've got to move to the sidelines and do I want to hold overnight positions?" No I don't there's too much risk risk management is job number one thanks for tuning in everybody we'll be back here again next Sunday i'm sure it's going to be as they say interesting have a good night