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UK's Controversial Murder Prediction Project

Apr 15, 2025

UK Creating Murder Prediction Tool

Overview

  • Title: UK creating murder prediction tool to identify people most likely to kill
  • Published by: The Guardian
  • Date: April 8, 2025
  • Author: Vikram Dodd
  • Link to Article: The Guardian Article

Key Points

  • The UK government is developing a murder prediction program that uses algorithms on personal data to identify individuals most likely to commit murder.
  • The project is called "sharing data to improve risk assessment." It aims to enhance public safety.
  • The existence of the project was uncovered by Statewatch via Freedom of Information requests.

Project Details

  • The program analyses data from thousands of individuals, focusing on those known to authorities.
  • Originally named the "homicide prediction project."
  • Allegedly uses data including personal information about self-harm, domestic abuse, and possibly from individuals not convicted of crimes.
  • Officials claim data is only used for those with at least one conviction.

Criticism and Concerns

  • Critics, including campaigners and Statewatch, describe the project as chilling and dystopian.
  • Concerns about bias against minority-ethnic and poor communities.
  • Fear that algorithmic systems will perpetuate existing systemic biases within the criminal justice system.

Government's Position

  • The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) claims the project is for research purposes only to potentially improve risk assessments.
  • It is designed to use existing data from HM Prison and Probation Service and police forces.
  • A report will be released in the future detailing the findings.

Data Sources

  • Information processed includes details from the police national computer.
  • Data types include names, dates of birth, gender, ethnicity, and special categories like mental health and addiction.
  • Data from Greater Manchester police prior to 2015 is utilized.

Opposition's Argument

  • Statewatch highlights the risks of using data from individuals seeking help or with no convictions.
  • Concerns over privacy and the ethical implications of using sensitive data.

Quotes

  • Sofia Lyall, Statewatch researcher, criticizes it as "chilling and dystopian," pointing out risks of reinforcing biases.

Conclusion

  • The project aims to enhance public safety through better risk assessment but faces significant ethical and privacy concerns.
  • The government insists it remains a research initiative at this stage.

Related Topics

  • Crime prediction tools
  • Algorithmic bias in policing
  • Privacy and data protection in the criminal justice system