In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts and data to help us answer the question, what does this signal say about stocks in the next 1 to 5 years? This was a slide that we covered in the May 22nd video. And you may remember we discussed that the 41 signal dates that we covered from a breath perspective earlier in May told us that if the S&P 500 backtracked to somewhere between 5745 and 5642 within the context of those signals historically that would be 100% normal and to be expected. And we also covered numerous reference points, some shown on the chart here, dated May 22nd, that basically said it's relatively easy to be patient if the S&P 500 can hold this general area in here. If we fast forward to last week's close, there was nothing particularly alarming on the same chart dated May 30th. And the same can be said for an updated chart as of close on June 6, 2025. It's also a good sign if we look at the closing version of the same chart. The previous charts were candlestick charts. This is the band that we covered previously and you can see we broke above the band in a confident manner and then we came back down and tested the top of that band on a closing basis. And now we've gone on as of the close on June 6th and printed a higher high. All of this consolidation in here occurring above the moving average cluster. It's also a great sign that the blue 20-day moving average has moved from the bottom of the stack to the top of the stack. It's also noteworthy that we have a tight cluster of the moving averages between the 20-day in blue and the 250day in black, telling us this is an important region. And thus far, we haven't seen anything to contradict the historical cases that said there was a back of the envelope 87% probability that this low from earlier in April of this year when the tariff news became less bad was a significant and sustainable low. This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ composite tape index. One of the things that you learn when you use Ballinger bands is when the bands are close together, you should be open to potentially an explosive move in one direction or the other. Thus, on April 30th, 2025, it would have been concerning if this look up here in the upper right hand corner of your screen morphed into something like this in the first half of calendar year 2008. If we fast forward to the end of May, this is the same chart on your screen. This one's dated May 30th, 2025. We got a bullish move in the other direction. That's a rare and sharp move. And you can make an argument it's similar to this rare and sharp move down here in the lower leftand corner of the screen at the end of February 1983. It's similar to this rare sharp move here. You can see the white space between the indicator and the Ballinger band right here at the end of June 1995. It's similar to this sharp move. If we zoomed in here, the indicators above the Ballinger band at the end of September 2003. Similar situation here. There's a little bit of white space in here between the indicator and the Ballinger band after the tight look at the end of February 2013. Thus, it may be helpful to know how did the stock market perform walking forward looking out 1 to 5 years following the similar setups that we just covered, the four setups on your screen. The answer is from a long-term perspective quite well. These are the same dates that we just covered on the previous slide. In all four of the historical cases, the S&P 500 was higher in every instance. 3 months later, 6 months later, 1 year later, 2 years later, 3 years later, four years later, and 5 years later, median gain looking out 1 year, 17.35%. Median gain in the S&P 500 looking out 4 years, 74.2%. Worst instance was a gain of 53.29% after the signal that we just covered at the end of September 2003. As always, none of this predicts anything. It simply helps us assess the probability of good things happening relative to the probability of bad things happening. and the setups that we've covered in recent weeks, the facts that we have in front of us, the data sets that we have in front of us, the signals that have been printed in the rearview mirror, they're allowing us to now prudently focus on longerterm outcomes while respecting that volatility is a normal part of all bullish trends. Green tables do not mean easy. It's extremely important even in the context of bullish setups that we understand how markets operate in the real world. This is the S&P 500's anchored volume weighted average price chart that we've covered numerous times in these videos in recent weeks. You may remember we held down here when the tariff news became less bad near a logical area. And now we've recaptured numerous anchored volume weighted average price lines that tell us the probability is now favorable that this downtrend here that ended in early April is most likely over and we are resuming the uptrend that began in October of 2022. You can see we held at the red line tied to that low from 2022. This is the NASDAQ 100 advanced decline line. If you look at the lower leftand corner of your screen, this is the look that we want to avoid. This is where the S&P 500 peaks in October of 2007. You can see the indicator makes a series of lower highs and lower lows. This is Q1 of08. The stock market does not perform well at all in 2008. You can see we have almost the polar opposite with the indicator recently making a new all-time high as of June 6, 2025. Another chart that we've covered numerous times, ARKF, the ARC fintech innovation ETF. It helps us with risk on riskoff behavior and market liquidity. We still have a very favorable look now with the ETF back above all of the moving averages. And the 20-day moving average in blue is back to the top of the stack here. This is the same NASDAQ technical index that we just looked at. We're just looking at it in a different form. Compare and contrast the bearish look here in Q4 of 2007, the bearish look here in 2015, the bearish look here in 2018 and Q1 of 2022 with the present day first week of June 2025. This really doesn't look anything like the red annotated regions and it looks a lot or at least a lot more like this region down here. a favorable region in 2016. Yet another way to look at it. This is the bearish look that we want to avoid in the year 2000. This is the bearish look that we want to avoid in Q1 of 2008. And this is June of 2025 making a new high up here. This doesn't really look anything like this nor anything like this. NASDAQ new highs minus new lows. It's reasonable to make the case that this bullish turn here in November of 2023 is very very similar to the bullish turn that we have in the present day in early June of 2025. After this look here, growth spy significantly outperformed SPY. The ratio is shown bottom portion of your screen. All of these cases are similar. This is the S&P 500 down here. If you know your market history, bad things happen in the second half of 2015. And they don't end until the S&P 500 bottoms in February of 2016. You can see NASDAQ new highs, new lows drops below the green line in here when bad things start to happen in the bottom portion of your screen. Back to the top up here. See this white space? We don't get back to the green line until 2016. And after that, good things happen in the stock market. Similar concepts here, here, and here. Something similar just happened in the present day. We made it back to the green line for the first time since the market peaked earlier in 2025. Top portion of your screen is the NASDAQ composite weekly. This is PO, the percentage price oscillator. It's very similar to MACD with one exception. It's much better at comparing things on long-term time frames. We can compare the right side of the screen to the left side of the screen. We really can't do that with MACD. Notice in 2002, PO gets rejected and turns down below the zero line here. After the major low, it recaptures the zero line here in 2003. Same story here. Can't make it back to the zero line in 2008. It recaptures it in 2009. The present day, we've dropped below it. And now we've recaptured it with PO back in the black. In 2022, Q1 of 2022, NASDAQ weekly dropped into the weekly cloud and never made it back to the bullish end of the spectrum here. This really doesn't look anything like the present day. The broad Dow Jones composite, the present day really doesn't look anything like this during the dotcom bare market, nor anything like this during the financial crisis bare market. with the recent pullback holding above an upward sloping 40month moving average in green upper right hand corner of your screen. Dow Jones US consumer services index. It's a weekly chart. Consumer related stocks did not perform well and failed near the 200week moving average here early in calendar year 2008. And after that really bad things happened. So you can make an argument this is a bearish breakdown and then this is a retest of that bearish breakdown. It's a successful bearish retest because we go on to make a lower low. This is almost the exact opposite. This is a bullish breakout up here from 2024. This looks like a successful retest of that breakout and all of it is occurring above an upward sloping 200E moving average in red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the more common Dow Jones Industrial Average, gapped above the moving average cluster here, just as the 10% correction in the S&P 500 was ending in October of 2023. After we recaptured the moving average cluster here, the S&P 500 performed well, the upward sloping green line, all the way into early 2025. You going to make an argument that Friday's session is similar. This is the first time the Dow has popped its head above the tight moving average cluster. Longer above, the more meaningful it becomes. Also noteworthy, what once acted as resistance over here may now act as support when the tariff news became less bad. covered this chart a few weeks back where we made the case that the present day really didn't look anything like the peaking process in 1929. Subtle shift on this chart. We're trying to break above the downward sloping trend line here on daily RSI for the Dow. Dow Jones Industrials relative to the NASDAQ composite. This is the look that we want to avoid when the ratio went above the cloud in favor of the Dow and against the NASDAQ. Present day looks like we had a failed move to the upside and now we've been making a series of lower lows in this weekly window here. The weekly cloud has flipped back from green to red. And in this case, red leans bullish for the NASDAQ relative to the Dow. Similar concepts to what we covered earlier in the video. This is the COVID crash here in the S&P 500. You could see the white space in here and then we make it back to the dotted blue line and good things happen in the S&P 500. Similar story here. See all the white space? We recapture it. Good things happen. See all the white space? we recapture it speaks to probabilities in the current uptrend when the NASDAQ 100 comes back near the 180 week moving average here in orange and then recaptures the 30 40 and 50WE moving averages as it did here. Good things tend to happen. Similar concepts here, similar concepts here and here. You can see we recently came down and tagged all of the moving averages including that same orange moving average. What once acted as resistance over here may now act as support. And we have now recaptured and closed multiple weeks above the 30, 40, and 50we moving averages in blue, red, and green. When the dotcom bubble burst, the NASDAQ 100 index, the monthly cloud lost both the red and the blue span here. Very, very similar situation during the financial crisis when we recaptured blue and then we had the cross blue above red. The major low was in and the dot combust bare market was in the rearview mirror. Same bullish story here after the major low in March of 2009. We have a similar turn, bearish back to bullish in the present day. This is the region in here where the S&P 500 had a 10% correction in 2023. You can see when the broad myys composite recaptured the moving average cluster in here in early November, if you know your stock market history, really good things happened after that as evidenced by the move in the MYSC composite. You can make an argument this is a similar type setup in the present day with the NYSE composite printing a higher closing high relative to this high here. This is a daily chart. is the MYSE advanced decline volume line drops below the blue moving average here during the dot combust bare market. Recaptures it after the major low. Loses it during the financial crisis. Recaptures it after the major low. Loses it during the bare market in 2022. And then in early 2024 recaptures it in a bullish manner. And we remain above it in the present day. And we're trying to clear this high here. Relative to the rearview mirror, this looks a lot more like 2016 and 2009 and 2003 relative to 2001, 2008 or 2022. We all know there are three probabilistic steps for a trend change. Step number one, you have to break a trend line. and we did that here in the very broad S&P composite 1500 index. Step two is you have to make a higher low somewhere along the line relative to the low in the rearview mirror. You can make an argument we did that here or here. Step three would be you have to go on and print a higher high. We did that this week on a closing basis. This is a weekly chart as of the close on June 6th, 2025. Covered this many times. Still have a nice set of improving looks relative to the S&P 500's weekly momentum. Always a good sign when you're recapturing the zero line. Recapturing the zero line. And we now have a bullish cross on the moving averages. Price is invisible on this chart with blue back above red. Step one, you break a downward sloping trend line. Step two, you have to make a higher low relative to this low. And step three, you have to make a higher high on a closing basis. We close Friday, June 6th, right at 6,000. Tariff news became less bad in early April down here. Since then, we've morphed from a concerning look on the daily cloud of the S&P 500 to batting a thousand. Checking all of these boxes over here. There's a lot of talk about the bond market. Have we broken out of that trading range that dates back to March of 2022 on F7 to 10year treasuries? We have not. It's hard to make an argument that on a 7 to 10 year time frame that investors are viewing US treasuries significantly differently than they have since March of 2022. AIQ relative to SPY AIQ is the global artificial intelligence and technology ETF. This is the type of ETF that we monitor to help us with risk on and risk off. This is a monthly cloud. This is a very encouraging long-term look. And the monthly cloud, you can see over here, is trying to flip from red to green. The longer a market goes sideways, the bigger the move that you can expect to get when you either get a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown. In this case, we have a bullish breakout. We've been consolidating on that same ratio going back to 2023 here. This is a good tight cluster look in here that continues to break in a bullish manner. This is the ratio of Ftech the Fidelity Information Technology Index very very similar to XLK relative to SPY. It's a monthly chart and this is the allimp important 50month moving average in blue. We came back and tagged it and held here which is even more encouraging than the short stay below in 2022. IWF relative to IWD growth versus value significantly improved look as of June 6th relative to this on the ropes and concerning look that we had earlier in 2025. What once acted as resistance what once acted as resistance may now act as support. IYW Tech back above the weekly cloud. Did that happen in 2022 after we lost the cloud? It did not. Still need to see a little bit more on the relative charts for tech relative to the S&P 500 and tech relative to growth. But this is another step in the right direction. This is IYW Tech relative to VU. All of this has occurred above an upward sloping 200E moving average and we now have multiple weekly closes on the ratio above this downward sloping trend line. JNK telling us that the credit markets still have a favorable outlook economically. The momentum divergence that we covered on full stochastics turned out to be helpful on RSP, the equal weight S&P 500 weekly. We're close. We're not quite there yet. SMH divided by SPY. If you're a bull for SMH, you'd like to see it break into this white space. This week, SMH outperformed SPY by 3.7%. All of this consolidation here in SPY for the most part occurring in recent weeks above the election gap. Still like that look of the 20-day moving average rapidly moving from the bottom of the moving average cluster back to the top. It's another good step. This is SPY GS and George relative to SPY the S&P 500. We've now made a weekly closing high this week relative to this high, above this high and above this high. Been encouraging, still encouraging. Monthly cloud remained encouraging during the recent pullback. Still encouraging. Been covering this encouraging development on the chart of materials XLB weekly in isolation. This is the 200week moving average in blue. XLB was up 1.67% this week. The moral of the story is we haven't seen anything really to contradict all of the green tables that we've been covering in recent weeks and all of the green and bullish signals that were produced after the market made a low in early April of 2025. who want to make sure that we're not letting concerns about day-to-day volatility, 100% normal and to be expected volatility interfere with our longer term investment goals. The data appears to be shifting back in a manner that allows us to do just that. But we all know the only way we can use all of this effectively is if we head into next week and every week with that flexible, unbiased and open mind. The material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any viewer. This video is presented solely forformational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments. Nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this video are subject to change without notice and Shivako Capital Management LLC or CCM is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. CCM and its respective officers and associates or clients may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. 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