Lecture Notes: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Introduction

• Date of invasion: February 24, 2022, at 2 a.m. Ukraine time.
• Putin's announcement of a "special military operation" perceived as war.
• Many Ukrainians view this as a continuation of conflict since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.

Background of Conflict

• 2014 Onward:
  • Conflict began with Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine.
  • The 8th Combined Arms Army was re-established in 2017, increasing military presence along Ukraine's borders.
  • Russian military infrastructure around Ukraine has expanded significantly since 2014.

Military Buildup

• November 3, 2021:
  • Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported 90,000 Russian troops surrounding Ukraine.
  • Russian forces did not leave after military exercises; numbers were increasing.
• Satellite Images:
  • Comparison of troop buildup from September to November; significant increase in military hardware.
  • Infrastructure for war was being established (medical units, supplies).
• Logistics of Mobilization:
  • Russia's extensive rail network (third largest in the world) facilitates troop movement.
  • Reliance on trains for moving troops and supplies was crucial to documentation of the buildup.

Initial Phase of Invasion

• February 2022:
  • Russian troops moved south towards Ukraine's border.
  • 175,000 Russian troops amassed along the border.
• Opening Hours of Invasion:
  • Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian military infrastructure; 11 air bases destroyed on the first day.
  • Helicopter landings at Hostomel airport aimed to establish an air bridge for more troop deployment.
• Ukrainian Response:
  • Ukraine's 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade successfully retook Hostomel by 8 p.m.

Challenges Facing Russian Forces

• Day 2 of Invasion:
  • Russian forces faced fierce resistance attempting to reach Kyiv.
  • Reports of logistical issues: tanks running out of fuel, troops looting for supplies.
• Ukrainian Defense Strategies:
  • Focus on logistics; targeting Russian fuel trucks to disrupt supply lines.
  • Destroyed bridges into Kyiv to control access points.
  • Dismantled street signs to confuse Russian troops, who relied on paper maps.

Russian Logistics Failures

• Historical Context:
  • Past failures in Soviet-Afghan war linked to logistics issues.
• Current Logistics Structure:
  • Russian military relies on a push-based logistics system, limiting adaptability.
  • Inadequate transport vehicles for ongoing operations; lack of trucks compared to need.
• Supply Limitations:
  • Successful military operations typically require flexible logistics; Russia's system is rigid.

Conclusion

• Time as a Factor:
  • Russian military has capabilities for prolonged conflict, but initial failures exposed weaknesses.
  • Current logistical issues could be a long-term disadvantage in conflicts.
  • Desperation led to looting and increased civilian casualties.
• Impact on Civilians:
  • The cost of war falls heavily on innocent lives, highlighting the tragedy of military failures.