Confirmation Bias: Tendency to seek, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs or values.
Also known as confirmatory bias, myside bias, or congeniality bias.
Strongest in desired outcomes, emotionally charged issues, and entrenched beliefs.
Mechanisms and Effects
Biased Search for Information: Selecting information that supports one's beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Biased Interpretation of Information: Even with the same evidence, individuals interpret it to fit their beliefs.
Biased Memory Recall: Selective recall of evidence that supports beliefs, often forgetting contrary information.
Specific Effects Explained
Attitude Polarization: Opinions become more extreme despite similar evidence.
Belief Perseverance: Beliefs persist even after being proven false.
Irrational Primacy Effect: Reliance on information encountered early.
Illusory Correlation: Perceiving false associations between events or situations.
Historical and Experimental Context
Early psychological experiments from the 1960s demonstrated people's tendency to confirm existing beliefs.
Wason's experiments highlighted the one-sided hypothesis testing approach.
Explanations for Confirmation Bias
Cognitive Explanations: Limitations in information processing lead to reliance on heuristics and shortcuts.
Motivational Explanations: Desire for positive and familiar thoughts influences belief formation.
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Pragmatic assessment of error costs leads to confirmation bias.
Exploratory vs Confirmatory Thought: Motivation to justify existing beliefs rather than explore new ones.
Make-Believe and Optimal Information Acquisition: Childhood coping mechanisms extend into adulthood, and seeking confirmatory evidence may be efficient under specific conditions.
Real-World Implications
Social Media: Filter bubbles and algorithmic editing amplify confirmation bias, narrowing perspectives.
Science: Confirmation bias affects scientific research, leading to selective interpretation and reporting biases.
Finance: Investors demonstrate overconfidence, ignoring evidence that challenges their strategies.
Medicine: Early diagnostic commitments may lead practitioners to focus only on confirming evidence.
Politics and Law: Jurors and detectives may fixate on initial impressions, leading to biased verdicts and investigations.
Psychological Theories and Studies
Experiments demonstrate people's tendency to favor information that aligns with their beliefs.
Intelligence level does not significantly alter susceptibility to confirmation bias.
Studies on personality traits show variation in defense against contradictory information.
Associated Phenomena
Polarization of Opinion: Stronger beliefs after encountering new evidence due to biased interpretation.
Persistence of Discredited Beliefs: Beliefs endure even when their foundational evidence is discredited.
Preference for Early Information: Initial information disproportionately influences decision making.
Illusory Association: False correlations perceived between unrelated events.
Historical Observations
Historical figures like Thucydides, Dante, and Francis Bacon noted early forms of confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias described as a natural habit of people to ignore information contradicting favored beliefs.
Conclusion
Confirmation bias is a pervasive issue affecting numerous domains of life, from personal beliefs to professional practices.
Awareness and understanding of confirmation bias can aid in reducing its negative effects and promoting more balanced decision-making.