well good afternoon everyone hey it is shooter Scott Henderson and we are going to go over what transpired in swing trade notes in the rare chat room let's jump right into it first though at the end of the presentation make sure you do review our disclosures now I'd like to start this week with how important it is to be in chat quite simply I only post the trigger entries in our chat room in the rare chat so if you don't get those entries you know just taking the setup and entering off of my suggestion doesn't mean all of the conditions have been met for example like the mag 7 being all green i need that to enter something long all right let's jump right into it i'm going to start off with my final victim this week i ham and hod all afternoon Thursday going into earnings um finally uh about 40 minutes before the bell I started putting a position on i bought common shares at 972 i sold a 930 covered call which funded really the calls and then I bought a put position down at 900 so I had 1,000 strike calls expiring the 25th i had the covered calls expiring the 20 and then I had those 900 put and the way I figured it my risk probably was 5% at best because the expected move was 8 12% so from that $972 right now I'm looking at a $1,05 price so we're about $30 in the money on those calls and I would suspect that those covered calls get called away however you know with market conditions you never know i might be able to exit those calls in money in the money and still get paid to the downside which was part of my thesis in putting the trade on you know with the risk in the market so all right let's jump into it what else did we take this week well we took some QQQ puts both uh Tuesday and Wednesday um I think between the both of them that I posted in chat I obviously had dailies in there as well which I did not post um but um I think the net gain in our chat room was like 150 55% something to that degree um for those to the upside now the only other position we put on on Monday we did an Apple runner as I call it which really is just a marker it's so I'm watching the options the the P&L right on my screen on that little box so you know it's I'm staring at it you know it's live kind of thing that way I'm watching it kind of thing and you know there were a couple times uh you know I wanted to enter you know we got the trigger i actually just wore the open but we didn't have the Mag 7 green and you know the ironically the one that got over 3% was Apple so but ultimately we rolled right back over so the thesis was spoton i mean even though the setup was there now let me go through the setups all right so there's there's a couple things I like i like extended or elongated C's to trade back for a bounce to the long side all right so you know irregular ABC is has some equality and then it extends sometimes and then you get one what I refer to as elongated this is shallow of elongated because it should have come down and tested the low around 163 and it didn't and then we got tariff news and we bounced so now if we find a floor in the SP this isn't dead to the upside to me however this looks much more like an impulse leg down than it does as far as a ABC pattern and this would look very much like what I'm drawing here and that's concerning there's a specific type of Elliot impulse leg you know typically it's an ending diagonal where you have a really shallow one a extended three and another shallow five where one equals five quite often that is what occurs so that's what I visually see in this count here so I really have a hard time chasing Apple long but let me jump back to my other victims we had this week same scenario i didn't put the longs on same scenario we're looking for this flush down this really was A and then we got a bounce back for B which was extremely shallow and then we got the tariff news and we came out of that the problem that I see here is this really is an ABC structure and that this is the challenging part about chasing it from here is that I see this which is consistent with what the chart is showing me potentially to the downside this is an ABC so this is a three we get a three in the middle for our beat and quite often you get a three on the other side right the other flip side is you get a 535 that's an impulse leg and an ABC and another impulse leg but in this case we don't have that in our wave A so 75% or greater the odds are that this is another ABC pattern over here in W the problem with that is it could become extended or elongated which could take us way the heck down here to 95 bucks i don't think we're in that kind of market conditions jobs were decent you know CPI wasn't horrible there's a lot of good things we need to start seeing the tariffs wash into the jobs numbers for us really to come off so all right let's jump over next victim was Nvidita which absolutely just got slaughtered after Monday it looked pretty decent right at the open i almost chased it great if if I did if I did not follow my rules I would have taken it long and I would have lost that's why the rules are there um over time you know after a certain thing catches you time time and time again you know come on I'm pounding on the table you got to wake up sometimes you got to change the rules your rules are wrong they're bad if it keeps you out of trouble that's what they're there for so same scenario we had our A B and then we had an extended C and you know I thought we were pretty solid for a bounce back 50% we got it decent run but it didn't hold really for us to carry and that specific rule about the mag seven about getting long um obviously kept me out of trouble because it totally reversed then we had IWM now I like this because I think it has you're going to have people chase value and the tariffs are lagging so much on the NASDAQ the Russells is heavy in finance which has done decent and this is going to be the real benefit as far as US entities and jobs is in small cap and where does that live that lives in the Russell so I think the Russells has a greater chance of a good bounce with the FOMO again I didn't take any positions decision turned out to be right all right but that was the setup again we had an ABC with an extended C you know likelihood was a 50% back number and then my second victim or maybe my third maybe that was my fourth is Monster now that actually worked um actually I want a position in Monster and I've looked at it 25 times this week i need a pullback here full position above 345 i doubt that I'm going to chase that in this market there's just too much of a liquidity issue bank of Japan is really nervous looks like they're going to raise rates again which the last time they raised rates it caused us nearly a 5% draw down in indices so you know this is all the camouflage or the backdrop of the noise that I'm hearing where I'm more incur you know cash is a position so unless I have the FOMO it's it's a hit and run mark you know the place to take this was at the open the break above this wick and we didn't meet the conditions to take it over 305 obviously it worked we're up at 317 so that's that's what it is next all right looking at block B L K i just need the MAG 7 to get green and stay green i'm going to add this caveat i want two days of all of Mag 7 green one at least up 3% the reason being is we're doing this pump and dump pump and dump and it's very consistent and you know we have a hot day then we have a cold day warmer day cold day hot day cold day so we're seeing that chop in this range and that pretty much is how swing trade notes played out this week now I know there's some of you that are going to say "Well what about Bitcoin what about Bitcoin?" So hey we're going to come in and we're going to look at Bitcoin and give you a visual so I think we get back to this 96 92 range not as euphoric as I would like look at the volume down here there's no volume no volume we stayed in this flat now notice how long there was no volume here you know from four of 23 to 923 so there's five money we don't have that here this actually I shouldn't say we're not like this we're more like So we break out above this 88735 and that might change the picture to the upside and we might head for alltime highs we could I'm not going to say we're not and part of the reason is is because our mound structure pretty much this mound one is pretty much ended right it extended just a little bit on you know so connected into this so we got probably a third drive up here so 124 is totally viable to the upside trend support here is held you know B I mean A B or one two three is held all right wick off nice seller exhaustion not as nice as this one notice the how broad that candle that was like boom they just took it right out of there another nice seller exhaustion on the low so there's a lot of structural things I like in Bitcoin to the upside the problem is I see this i see weak support here weak we're here that was decent if we held above this we needed to hold above 7935 for it to be strong it's weak sweet P yeah and we don't have any inside i mean we don't have any tight wick candles in this entire pattern here so it's not sell the news it's not buy the news because neither the bulls or the bears are in control so that's my two cents on Bitcoin and then just real quick let's look at the SPY and you know I think this plays out you know we pretty much wicked up to that 547 already so you know we're up got some an decent bid into the close you know so I think this 563 is viable now I'm going to come back and say I am in the sell any rip mode so my game plan is up around 563 sell the rip all right unless we get above this 575 then I changed my mind but that basically is the look for this week folks have a great holiday happy Good Friday you all be well um make sure you like and share on YouTube and of course I I encourage you to engage me with any questions you have that's what I'm here until next time folks