Biases

Why do We Have Biases?

• Biases stem from assumptions about the world which may not be accurate.
• These assumptions are known as heuristics.
  • Heuristics are mental shortcuts that help the brain manage information without storing every detail precisely.
• Heuristics can lead to consistent patterns of thinking and decision-making that may be inaccurate, known as cognitive biases.
• Some biases are not reliant on heuristics, stemming instead from desires to protect self-esteem or fit into a group.

Anchoring Bias

• Definition: A cognitive bias where individuals rely heavily on the first piece of information they receive (the "anchor") when making decisions.
• Impact:
  • Skews judgment and can hinder updates to plans or predictions.
  • People make adjustments from the initial anchor, but these adjustments are often insufficient.
  • Anchors can be arbitrary and unrelated yet still influence decisions (e.g., random numbers like dice rolls).

Study 1: Englich and Mussweller

• Objective: To test if a requested sentence length would influence judges' decisions.
• Sample: 19 young trial judges, average age 29.37, average experience 9.34 months.
• Method:
  • Judges read case materials and formed opinions.
  • Given a questionnaire after 15 minutes, with half informed of a 34-month request, others a 2-month request.
• Findings:
  • High anchor (34 months) led to a mean sentence recommendation of 28.7 months.
  • Low anchor (2 months) led to a mean sentence recommendation of 18.7 months.
• Conclusion: Anchors influenced sentencing decisions; the low anchor prompted lower sentence recommendations.

Evaluation

• Sampling: Predominantly male sample might indicate stronger bias effects in males.
• Reliability: High standard deviation suggests varied results, indicating inconsistent findings upon repetition.

Study 2: Tversky and Kahneman

• Objective: Examine anchoring bias's effect on judgments and estimates.
• Method:
  • High school students estimated a mathematical product within 5 seconds.
  • One group received numbers in ascending order, another in descending.
• Findings:
  • Ascending order group estimated a median of 2250.
  • Descending order group estimated a median of 512.
  • True product was 40320, indicating anchor influence.
• Conclusion: Anchoring bias leads to reliance on initial information (anchor) with inadequate adjustments.

Evaluation

• Ecological Validity: Artificial setting and task lacking realism.
• Demand Characteristics: Possible influence of mathematical knowledge over bias.

Link between Studies

• Both studies demonstrate that anchors influence judgments and decisions.
• The studies illustrate the importance of objectivity and awareness of biases in decision-making contexts.

Theory and Importance

• Studying biases helps understand decision-making processes and the potential for bias to influence judgments.
• Highlighting the need for awareness and strategies to mitigate biases in various scenarios, from legal judgments to everyday estimates.

Conclusions

• Anchoring bias significantly influences decision-making by establishing a reference point, which can alter subsequent judgments.
• Recognizing and understanding biases can lead to more objective and accurate decision-making processes.