Lecture Notes: Global Catastrophe Preparedness

Introduction

• Historical Concerns
  • Past worry: Nuclear war.
  • Preparation: Storing food and water in barrels for survival.
• Current Concern
  • Risk of global catastrophe now: Highly infectious virus over nuclear war.
  • Greater investment has been made in nuclear deterrents than in epidemic prevention systems.

Epidemic Preparedness

• Lack of Preparedness
  • Example: Ebola outbreak.
  • No structured system was in place for dealing with epidemics.
• Key Missing Pieces
  • No ready group of epidemiologists.
  • Lack of accurate and timely case reporting.
  • Insufficient medical teams and volunteer orchestration.
  • No one to explore treatment approaches or diagnostics.

Ebola Case Study

• Ebola Outbreak Observations
  • About 10,000 deaths, mainly in West Africa.
  • Factors preventing wider spread:
    • Heroic work by health workers.
    • Ebola’s nature (not airborne, symptoms visible when contagious).
    • Luck in not reaching urban areas.

Future Risks

• Potential Viral Threats
  • Future viruses might spread more easily, e.g., through air or bioterrorism.
  • Example: Spanish Flu killed over 30 million people.
• Importance of Preparation
  • Preparedness can reduce potential harm substantially.

Building a Response System

• Tools and Technology
  • Use of cell phones and satellites for information flow and tracking.
  • Advances in biology for rapid pathogen response.
• Response System Components
  • Strong health systems in poor countries for early outbreak detection.
  • Medical reserve corps with trained personnel.
  • Partnership of medical personnel with military for logistics and area security.

Simulation and Research

• Simulations ("Germ Games")
  • Essential for identifying and addressing preparedness gaps.
  • Last germ simulation in the US was in 2001 and was not successful.
• Research and Development
  • Need for advanced R&D in vaccines and diagnostics.
  • Example: Adeno-associated virus as a quick response tool.

Economic Perspective

• Cost and Benefit Analysis
  • Modest cost compared to the potential global harm of a pandemic.
  • World Bank estimates a flu pandemic could reduce global wealth by over three trillion dollars and cause millions of deaths.
  • Investments would also improve global health equity and safety.

Conclusion

• Call to Action
  • Importance of beginning preparations now to be ready for future epidemics.
  • Lessons from Ebola should act as a wake-up call.
  • Preparedness should be a global priority.