Interviews conducted in fall 2022 in several cities: New York, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia.
Main concern: Fear of crime in downtown business districts.
Conflicting Crime Data
News reports paint a contradictory picture of crime trends.
Some report crime is down; others claim it's like a warzone.
Two-thirds of Americans believe crime in the US is a very serious problem.
Three-quarters think there's more crime than a year ago.
Sources of Crime Data
FBI Crime Database: Voluntary reports from law enforcement.
National Crime Victimization Survey: Asks people directly if they’ve been victims of crime.
Both sources have limitations.
Crime Trends
Homicide Data: Spikes in 2020, but looks temporary and is now falling.
Still higher than before the pandemic but decreasing.
Violent Crime & Property Crime Rates: Overall, both are decreasing.
Despite data, 77% believe crime is increasing.
Public Perception vs. Reality
Gallup Polls (35 years): Majority always think crime is up from last year.
Consistent fear about crime exists despite actual decline over decades.
Local vs. National Perception: Majority feel safe locally while believing national crime is out of control.
Specific Research Findings by Hanna Love
Fear of violent crime downtown doesn’t match actual data.
Example: Chicago's gun deaths concentrated in specific disadvantaged neighborhoods, not downtown.
New York: Violent crime up 2% downtown vs. 8% elsewhere.
Mismatch in Perception: People believe downtowns are more dangerous than they actually are.
Reasons for Misperception
Media Coverage: Frequently highlights crime in populated areas.
Media focuses on high-profile downtown incidents over more frequent, localized crimes.
Visible Homelessness & Vulnerable People: Pandemic changed who is seen on streets (e.g., fewer office workers, more homelessness).
Vulnerable populations wrongly equated with increased crime.
Policy Implications
Perception-Based Policies: Examples include sending the National Guard to patrol NYC subway despite declining crime rates.
Such policies can misallocate resources and fail to address real issues.
Counterproductive Measures: Increasing penalties for petty crimes, drug test requirements for welfare—starting a resurgence of tough-on-crime approaches.
The Challenges and Consequences
Perceptions Drive Policy: A big issue because policy influenced by perception rather than data can be ineffective.
Trust issues: Voters more likely to trust leaders emphasizing tough-on-crime stances.
Difficulty in changing public perception even with declining crime rates.