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Crypto Altcoins: Thesis and Market Analysis
Jul 12, 2024
Crypto Altcoins: Thesis and Market Analysis
Introduction
Focus on altcoins as they are underrated and undervalued.
Discuss the main thesis targeting altcoins and potential gains for Q3 and Q4.
Encourage viewers to subscribe for more early altcoin insights.
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin is retesting the 200 daily moving average.
Key level: Range low at 59.3k broken, bounced off support at 53k.
Currently targeting the old range low level again.
Discussion on whether this is a dead cat bounce or a possible deviation below.
CPI print could provide clarity on Bitcoin’s movement.
Macro Conditions and Expert Analysis
Insights from Fabian on macro conditions like Germany and Mt. Gox Bitcoin selling.
Germany moved 900 million Bitcoin to exchanges, with 50% sold already.
GA selling similar in size but spread over several months.
Potential for Bitcoin to absorb selling pressure and lead to market confidence.
Importance of Current Price Levels
Maintaining levels above 55k and 53k crucial.
Selling reduction could pave the way for bullish moves and short squeezes.
Effects of liquidity hitting the market and its absorption important.
Access to Market Commentary and Analysis
Exclusive access to Discord for market commentary, trade setups, altcoin portfolios.
Daily reports summarizing key market takeaways, opinions, trading setups, Q&A sessions, and trading wisdom.
Limited intake for exclusive community access.
Current Market Sentiment and Contrarian Perspective
Contrarian view to the bearish sentiments prevalent in the market.
Danger of following fear-driven sentiments online.
Despite headwinds, the long-term setup is bullish.
Global Liquidity and Market Cycles
Crypto correlated with global liquidity cycles.
Expected peak around late 2025 to 2026 aligning with prior cycle tops.
2025 as potential cycle top, with current Bitcoin and altcoin reset paving the way for performance.
Bullish Catalysts
Force selling could be front-run as it reduces.
Massive ETF flows not fully accounted for in the market.
US presidential candidate endorsing Bitcoin.
Payouts from FTX creditors could inject liquidity back into the market.
Potential rate cuts by the FED boosting global liquidity.
Altcoins Performance and Observations
Layer 1s and Layer 2s performance varies, with many Layer 2s underperforming.
Meme coins and Bitcoin showing strong gains.
New launches with low float high FTV seeing negative performance.
Beaten Down Tokens and Entry Opportunities
Celestia as a leading example of potential recovery among beaten-down tokens.
Importance of infra coils with headroom from next unlocks and beaten-down status.
Framework for identifying similar recovery opportunities.
Unlock schedules and strong fundamentals critical for selection.
Sector Analysis and Recommendations
Focus on tokens with strong fundamentals but currently undervalued.
Examples include Layer Zero, ZK Sync, Athena—criteria: beaten down, strong fundamentals, no imminent unlocks.
Portfolio Diversification and Strategy
Importance of a well-diversified portfolio.
Combine relative strength tokens and fundamentally strong, yet beaten-down tokens.
Periodic accumulation during low sentiment phases.
Summary and Conclusion
Altcoins present a significant investment opportunity, balancing between strength and undervalued tokens essential.
Preparation for upcoming market moves with a strategic approach.
Additional Resources
Access to exclusive Discord resources, trading view watch list, and spreadsheet for detailed analysis.
Encouragement to join the exclusive community for in-depth insights and tools.
Final Note
Stay informed and ready for market shifts by subscribing and staying engaged with the analysis and community discussions.
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