the melee administration has done three adjustments and this marks the beginning of the third one so they did a large fiscal adjustment a large monetary adjustment uh one scenario he said it was modeling or thinking about is one where these big tariffs stay and the average tariff in the US investment was asked about how China's commerce ministry called these tariffs a joke because of how high they are markets continue to whip just on Monday the Dow gained 300 points after Trump floated auto tariff exemptions but what really is happening here is that the Fed just flipped to signal they're going to come to our rescue even if this zigzaggedy volatility madness all of Trump continues and there are two scenarios that'll play out here and once you understand both you will know what to do with your portfolio and perhaps you've noticed how the media keeps flip-flopping between recession fears and recovery optimism about three times a day and after spending over a decade as an investor and analyzing these kind of market standoffs I can tell you there is a clear pattern forming that most retail investors completely miss you'll see exactly how to interpret Secretary Besson's three-legged stool strategy and the specific sectors poised to outperform in both high and low tariff scenarios and can you imagine having that kind of clarity while everybody else is panicking over the latest headline in the next few minutes you will gain exactly that clarity to be a step ahead of everybody else now Winston my golden retriever has of course done all the research here so take the scenarios with a pinch of large golden retriever fur and and speaking of a large pinch of something if you've ever wanted to actually consistently spot market opportunities before the crowd then what I'm about to share with you will be incredibly valuable in fact the approach that I cover today is very similar to the three-part trading rules and investing rules that I've developed over my banking careers and managing my own money and I didn't come up with those i'm going to be completely frank with you i learned them from the most successful investors and traders out there who've done this 30 40 50 years longer than I have because I wasn't even around when they started doing this and I put all that information into a 15-minute master class for you so you can actually learn this why i believe that everybody deserves financial education most people never get any so go get yourself some because once you understand how to decode the market and once you understand what's going to happen the next 90 days here with this Trump tariff pause you will be in a much much better position so how do you get yourself access to that information you leave this video and you go to felix friends.org/getfree links down below in the description is the first link you'll see down there and you will be forever smarter you'll never be able to unlearn the skills you're about to learn now make no mistakes this 90-day tariff pools is just a brief restbite after massive chaos and the underlying tension in the market well it's still there but what's really fascinating is that there is this strange disconnect we're seeing in the jobs market the New York Fed's latest survey shows consumers are more more worried about unemployment than at any time since the pandemic kicked off seriously how many Democrats are there in New York without worried about losing their job and yet there is the interesting bit the actual March unemployment rate is steady at 4.2% in fact Fed Governor Waller described the labor market as solid today so the million-dollar question now is this how much will these tariffs push prices up so how much inflation will they create and for how long to understand that you need to understand Secretary Besson's approach and he just explained this in a Bloomberg interview and he was very clear he said the current rates are maximum rates essentially they're the opening bids in a Trump style negotiation i'm going to grab you by an ankle i'm going to hang you out of the window and go how do you like it out there and the 90-day pause it's deliberately designed as a negotiation window so Besson has literally told trading partners "Bring your agame to the negotiation table." He's expecting to secure agreements in principle with numerous countries within this time frame which suggests he's quite confident in the strategy his core message to the markets that's you and me stay cool he genuinely believes the situation is under control and you may disagree with that but in fact he suggested market uncertainty has already peaked perhaps most importantly Bessant emphasized that tariffs are just one part of what he calls a three-legged stool strategy now what are the other two legs tax policy he's predicting significant cuts beyond the beyond just extending the existing ones and deregulation both are expected later this year and should provide powerful market support he mentioned seeing remarkable Republican unity whether that's wishful thinking or not I don't know but he's saying this is going to push these policies through now the whole thing though forces the Fed into a reactive scenario planning mode what do I mean by that essentially Bessin strategy defines the two main possibilities that the Feds outlined if negotiation succeeds see tariffs are lower which is the Fed's smaller tariff scenario and if negotiations fail or reach a stalemate higher tariffs remain in place which is the F Fed's large tariff scenario the bridge between these positions is uncertainty and that 90-day window represents the period of peak uncertainty for both the Fed and for you and me in our portfolio now what we don't normally see is for the Fed to lay out their contingency planning in advance they normally hold things quite close to the chest so he's walked us through what they're preparing for so let me walk you through it there is scenario one only two don't worry and you might want to take notes because then you'll actually remember this if Bessin strategy works out and we end up with lower tariffs around 10% on average the Fed can be patient in fact Wallace suggested we might still see good news rate cuts later this year if inflation continues its gradual improvement and the economic disruption would be manageable with only 10% tariffs so we're still going to get some rate cuts second half of this year which is good news for us because the stock market goes up when rates go down so now to your D too negotiations store and those high 25% tariffs remain in place well this is where it gets dicey the Fed anticipates a significant economic slowdown unemployment climbing towards 5% and despite the inflation spike which could reach four or 5% which they view as temporary very important this take that down their priority would shift towards preventing a recession likely leading to faster and deeper rate cuts and these would be what the Fed's Waller termed bad news rate cuts responding to economic deterioration rather than to the inflation going up and that is really really odd so they're basically saying we're going to tolerate temporary inflation up to 5% or so if the high tariffs remain and we're going to focus on cushioning the economic downturn which is a complete departure from their recent let's fight inflation in the trenches sort of approach starts so what's the key takeaway the Fed's path is almost entirely dependent on the outcome of these trade negotiations in the 90 days so how's the market going to respond to this well let's break it down in the high tariff scenario essentially negotiations fail we're going to see downside in the market fear of recession is going to overshadow most things defensive sectors like utilities consumer staples and some healthcare names might outperform which is why I've already shared them with my uh mentees on Monday and then bond yields are going to fall as investors seek safety in those bond yields and they look for Fed cuts and you're probably going to see me start buying US government bonds once again and the US dollar well it's probably going to weaken a little bit now on the flip side if negotiations succeed we get lower tariffs there's a potential for a massive relief rally and the market's going to focus back on growth and earnings and and and all that kind of stuff so your cyclical stocks will do well your industrials and your materials and then your tech companies will rebound but note in both scenarios we get rate cuts which if you have a medium to long-term horizon mean stock prices are going to go up it's just a question of how much disruption do you get in the in the short term so what's the savvy approach during this rather peculiar market period well let me share with you my thinking for the near term I'd suggest being cautiously optimistic but with a real priority on flexibility you got to watch out what is happening in politics there so I'm focusing on quality stocks i'm focusing on resilient companies i'm focusing on defensive companies i'm nibbling my position sizing is significantly smaller than usual because I want to see how this plays out yet at the same time I think there are some great opportunities so what are the criteria we look at strong balance sheet strong pricing power minimal trade exposure defensive plays essentially and then for the more medium term it's really just harder to foresee i'm a little bit more bearish because I don't know what's going to happen i don't really trust politicians all around now I do think eventually we're going to get those tax cuts and deregulation that could be towards the tail end of this year and that will be very very very supportive and I think then we're going to go more broadly again into a bull market but if those negotiations falter if the apparachnics in Europe come out and say no we will not eat your American beef you know that sort of thing then um it won't go very well and then nothing will really happen on that front and Trump's going to make him sweat because he will he's not going to cave in i think that's where the way this guy is is is is wired so again I'd focus on sectors that are less impacted by trade frictions utilities for example American utilities well you're still going to need water and power and you know it's not impacted really by by tariffs or certain health care stocks um gold stocks I'm quite liking at the moment there's a bunch of stuff out there you obviously need to do your research on and understand what the rules are but very very few people really know what to do in these scenarios right and that's why I always say don't focus on the news don't focus on the noise focus on learning the rules because the news and the noise is useless to you until you actually understand the rules so please please please do yourself a favor use the pain of the present market and I appreciate it's painful for almost everybody out there to sit down for 15 minutes learn the rules take notes take screenshots and then go and explain it to somebody else send somebody else in ling and say "Hey look I want to explain this to you why don't you explain this to me?" That's how you actually learn right felix runs/get free is where you get your your pause on that but above all dial down the FOMO dial down the need to be in everything and instead focus on quality caution the most important thing is to get through these 90 days with your capital intact so you can make better decisions when the market becomes cleaner and clearer and that's what we've been telling my students for the last I don't know six nine weeks or something is just caution caution caution caution are there opportunities yeah absolutely i mean I've got one on the screen here and Trade Vision very kindly provides us with these breakouts uh pretty much every single day this is MP Materials which is basically a rare earth play does that make sense well yeah if you look at what's going on between the US and China of course that makes sense to kind of rebound which it has it's just come down a little bit which might provide an entry but again you want to understand what are the rules why am I getting into this you know what are the numbers what are the key things I need to look for so please go learn those things and it'll put you into a better more confident position and you'll be much more likely to be actually successful and you you will never have big big big bags to carry you will never have big losses again and once you eliminate that problem gets a lot better you sleep better you tend to make a heck of a lot more money and that's really my goal here with our little community so check it out go to the link down below and I wish you a beautiful start to the week all the best what if I told you there is a company perfectly positioned to thrive during economic uncertainty and tariff wars while recession fears of investors running scared this market leader is quietly building an empire